Hi all,
I have been inveting since last 10 years but it is only in last 4 years I understood the power of compounding and started to hold stocks for more than a year and now im planning to hold more than that also I started my research in slightly deep way and try to understand the company and respective sectors.
Following are my portfolio, needs your assitance and cummunity’s guidance on how to go about it.
Please explain your thought process behind each stock… like why did you select only those stocks?
It is recently that I started in bonds. When I couldnt find any investment ideas.
Par drugs - API and fine chemicals which they are in I consider bullishness in this. The company manufactures the entire range of products in the Antacid Molecules segment
Axis Bank- Valution of axis bank compare to other pvt players
Mrs Bector foods- Long term bet considering their Capex in maharashtra and MP and expansion plans.
Jyothy labs- Rural India bet . Qtrly results growth is very impressive and accumaltion of nalanda Funds.
Jupiter Life- Recently they paid of all their loans and they are building 500 beds hospital in Dombivali (Thane distric- Maharashtra). Company has very impressive ROCE against other big players
Avanti feeds is bought recently - betting on Shrimp cycle
Jyoti resins- I have accumalted this when this was 100 cr and booked profit, since last 1 year this stock has been consolidating hence lowered down the position.
Shree ganesh remedies- API story very impressive promoters and qtr growth. API of Naltrexone and Buprenorphine. Both drugs are used as medication used to manage alcohol and opioid use disorder by reducing cravings and easing the pain.
Max India- This sells real estate/residential community to olderly people, home services provides , nursing care, pharmacy, and physiotherapy to seniors inside their own home’s comfort and equipments for older people like wheelchairs, walkers, and commode chairs under the brand name Antara.
Likhitha - This does city gas distribution infracture projects recently they did one of internation projects India - nepal and and doing very prestigies projects.
Amba enterprices- Transformers story, instead of betting on one particular stocks I liked this one, this has a client like siemens. I recently exited from shilchar when promoter sold there holding at Rs 2800
No view, but it appears that this a newly constructed PF. You have been investing for over 10 years or which last 4 years you got a sense on compounding. Why no old holding? Just curious; nothing for or against
Risky portfolio. Buy some bluechip stocks to balance ur portfolio.
Hi prince,
I have been selling my stocks whener i saw 30% or 40% profits.
I had recently sold all my multibaggers like jyoti resins, tanfac and shilchar it was very concentrated portfolio.
yes this is newly construsted portfolio and I would like to keep acculating my portfolio stocks. Hence accumlating quality shares and sitting on cash so i dont panic and can accumalate shares if find any opportunity.
Big fan price- I listen all your podcast on youtube- fvt is dhurva on power sector.
Thanks krishna,
surely I’ll consider that
Thanks Rahul, glad you liked it 
can you elaborate on your rationale on Par Drugs?
There is stock which i have recently came across. Followings are some details about this company. Companies data are not in detail avaialble but we can understand the sector and its seems good.
Stock name:- Sumuka Agro
Compnay Profile:-
Company is dealing in FMCG Segment. Currently, the Company is engaged in the business of Trading and Retailing of a wide array of Dry Fruits Products and ready to cook items, nankeen/ snacks products, sweet and spices, selling of packaged foods online. Company trades though its brand called “GUJJUBHAI NAMKEEN”
Distribution: When checked on amazon company products were not available and on flipkart only 2 products had shown. Company has long way to go on distribution front.
Industry structure :
Only 19% of market of FMCG represents f & b items which is expected to grow to US$ 70 Billion by 2025. Of the above US $ 70B, 96% of market in Packaged food is still Unorganized.
Khakhra & Bhakhri is a food which is still not recognized at a national level. Sumuka want to bring this healthy segment range and build a strong position in National & International market. Sumuka wants to capture 0.25% market share of unorganized segment by 2027. (i.e. Approx. US$ 0.2B) .
Threats
Investors: Promoter has been buying its shares and CMP is in range of 5% from promoter buying price.
Competion Details :- Compnay has competion from bikaji and haldiram. As bikaji is listed we will discuss BIKAJI here. Bikaji has target to have 2.5 lakhs touch points and they are very much on track. In Q2 FY24 they have added 46,000 points. Their currently touch point count is 2.05 Lakhs. Bikaji bhujia and namkeen products has been growing in double digits.
Future and valuation:-
Compnay is currently available at 28 PE and bikaji is at 85PE.
both bikaji and Sumuka has posted last qtr as their highest profit and sales.
Although on price to book ratio both are at 10 P/B.
Both have net profit margin of 10% and considering Threats to this industry I think inflation in RM prices may effect the company.
Assumption in Valuation:-
1)Considering 2018 to 2020 net profit margin of bikaji (bracket of 4 to 6%).
2)Companies target of acquiring 0.25% of all industry in packaged foods sales would be 1700 Cr considering this 50% of achievement sales would be Rs 850 Cr in 2027.
3) Average PE of bikaji in last 1 year is 80, Considering half multiple 40
net profit =Rs 850 Cr x 5%= 42 Cr
2027 price = 42Cr x 40(PE)= Rs 1700
Considering all above parameter I know target is very straggered but this is what it looks like as per management.
but if we skip management guidance aside and take bikaji growth rate which is 20% since last 5year. company would do sales(in 2027) of 90 Cr ,PE=40, Net profit margin = 5%
2027 price= 4.5Cr (NP year)* 40(PE)= Rs 180
Please guide and correct me!
I know this is very naive way of valuation but correct me on method or on technic.
I was invested earlier in it. There was an announcement that they will merge their private limited company with this company and after the merger promoter holding will increase from present 27% to 75%. I sold it as my shareholding will drop drastically if the market cap don’t increase proportionately. If you have any idea how this merger will affect the price, please share.
Hi Akash,
Causion Step we can take is, wait for 1 or 2 qtr result and if upside seems predictable and realiable then jump on buying.
Current valuation after post merger- post merger we will have 2,09,20834 shares if we divide this with net profit (TTM) of 4.21 Cr we will get EPS of 2.1. With this EPS at current price(Rs 165) PE comes out to be 78.5. Bikaji is at 80 PE.
Disclaimer- Invested, transacted in last 30 days.
Can you share more details on Likhitha? The projects that they are doing, what is the potential for growth in the coming years?
Also do you mind sharing what % of your portfolio is in this stock?
| Total Worth | Direct Equity | 83.17% |
|---|---|---|
| 10% yield NCD | 11.74% | |
| Cash | 5.09% |
Recently I added Sumuka, Accelya Solutions and Intence tech in Micro cap and
Dr Reddy, Blue star and Godfrey philips in large cap space.
Rational for buying were-
Sumuka agro - I prefer brand as they enjoy name in market and can charge premium for their name. Sumuka has a gujjubhai namkeen brand under its umbrella which looks promising seeing its result and profit margin.
Accelya solution- company has recently came to my notice after parag parikh bought some minor stake. After detail research I found out that company holds significat market share in airlines and cargo industries and enjoy highest margin in insdustries.
Intence tech- Company has been in this domain since long but it is only recently they have developed a product which is accepted by market [telecom sector] and they are now looking to increase the product mix from existing clients. promoter has recently bought some stake which looks it is a right time to enter.
Dr Redyy - only Large cap pharma avaialble at this low PE. Company focus and numbers looks promising from here on.
Bluestar and Godfrey philis- It is after many years I have seen blue star this focused and determined I know this compnay they had a image in market of less aggressive but it seems they are moving towards strategically aggresive. Godfrey philips being a cigrate company expanding in Consumer products and i like their product mix
Result update:-
Sumuka Agro- Sumuka has posted its profit of 80lakhs which is lowest in 4 qtr. Margin has been continuesly following from 13% gross to 6% now. Sumuka is seeing pressure in its bottom line. Although revenue posted by company is record high. Generally this pressure is seen when company wants to enter in market and wanna gain some market share.
Distribution - products are still not found on online on AMAZON and Dmart, only 2 sku were visible on flipcart
Jupiter life line hospital:- company has posted its highest profit this qtr, partly due to its repayment of debt. Company is walking the talk they said IPO funds will be used to repay its debt and they have done this. Company operate independently on
owned land.The proportion of the Indian population of 60 years or more is expected to rise to 12.5% by 2026 from nearly 8% in 2011
Capex update:- Company is doing a capex in Dombivali east for 500 beds. Kalyan dombivali region comes under smart city plan of central goverment. Project is very near to Lodha palava city and proposed metro line. Many residensial real estate plans are about to be completed.
Above image shows 2 senario
Senario 1 - project completed in FY 2026. Considering 20% growth annualy on existing hospitals and adding 100cr qtrly revenue in top line. (100cr calculation as below
500 beds - 50% occupency - 50000ARR) . With net profit % at 15% 2026 profit would be 243 cr and 2027 350 cr while taking 50 multiples i have come to target market cap.
Senario 2 -project compeltion in FY 2027.Considering 20% growth annualy on existing hospitals and adding 100cr qtrly revenue in top line in FY 2027. with Annual profit of 280 cr and multiple of 50 market cap would be 14000cr
Risk and threats
With above optimist senario CAGR return which can be make seems low and compnay is fairly valued at this price.
