Any more views from value pickr
What has been your portfolio cagr in last 10 years and what do you expect for next 10? Overall portfolio does not seem to look as though following or showing any particular thought proces or trend. It looks carefully picked at individual stock level with no biasis whatsoever. Only extremely experienced and high risk capacity investors can do that with with sustained success! Congratulations on your picks like TCI at opportune time. One question though, in your rationale you admit some stocks are not so good with no moat but why you still hold them and with significant part of portfolio.eg tv today or repco…
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Repco is a failure investment and I still have it as it’s close to zero for me. Will be exiting at any oppertunate time.
Tv today no moat, slow growth. Recently I added it as I had some cash and wanted to park in some stock that won’t go down. Will take out some money from it based on the results. Tv today is having roce of 28%, cash of 400 cr and market cap is 1200 cr. Pe is also single digits. Their digital revenues are going up. It’s safe place place but I don’t know about long term.
I am not high risk investor.
I bought Bajaj finance at 160, held it till 4800 but unfortunately exited it at 2000 during this crash. Was not able to get into it again. So that cash I deployed into tv today and laurus.
I have a few questions.
How do you allocate new capital?
Is there a fixed percentage of portfolio?
When do you consider an investment as failure and exit?
Do you average?
I average if company is good. I don’t average for the sake of averaging. Generally you get opportunity to average only in bad stocks. Correct stocks don’t give you that opportunity. Throwing good money over bad is not good idea.
I generally invest 10% in any new Idea. If a stock does not deserve 10% allocation then it means that my conviction level is not good so I need to find some other company.
I exit when I feel there is much better opportunity some where else or if I am not comfortable with the current holding.
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Removed Everest industries and repco home
Replaced them with Hikal. Will be adding more into hikal if it goes down. Right now hikal 6% holding.
You can track my portfolio here which gets updated daily automatically
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Management has guided 2400 cr sales with 24% EBIDTA margin by 2024. As per my calculation that leads to 250-300 cr profits. Give 25 pe and you can expect market cap of 6000-7500 cr. A 3 bagger in 3 years is good returns as per me.
Also with sales of 1600 cr, market cap is 2100 cr. Margin is safety is good.
Company has long history of decent operations.
Good compliance track record. Experienced management.
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Would love to know your investing journey. How did you start? How much did you start with? How long have you been doing this and what have been your biggest winners / winning lessons and losers / losing lessons?
I am software professional. Started in 2010 by investing salary.
Got few multibaggers. Started betting big. Will write in detail again tomorrow.
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He use to run advisory called Raghu advisory from hyderabad. The porfolio was a replica of mohnish pabrai and vijay kedia.Suddenly,the portfolio service was closed without notice and he stopped replying to queries.I received recommendations initially but then it stopped.Some of the picks such as rain,tv18 etc were multibagger though.
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Thank you, will wait. Interested to know your story.
Childhood:
I was born in 1980 in Andhra Pradesh. When i was 5 year old we moved to Jaipur as my father got job there. My father used to apply for IPO’s and hence i was introduced to stock markets at an early age of 10-12 years. Though i did not know anything about stocks but i could see my dad filling out forms for subscription to IPOs. He used to ask us for signatures. Sometimes he used to tell some stories that some stocks doubled after IPO, etc. Also he used to buy magazines like Capital markets. As a teenager i used to go through those numbers like EPS, P/E, 52 Week high/low, etc. One data i used to like was this 52 Week high/low. I was astonished to see few companies going up 5-10 times with in an year. So i used to think so much money can be made by putting into those stocks [This looked easy back then. But now we understand how difficult it is]
College Days:
I saw 1999-2000 technology boom as 20 year old studying in college. My father at that time had 200 shares of Global Tele bought at very cheap valuations something like 100 Rs. Those stocks went up all the way to 3500 Rs. Every day global tele was in upper curcuit. My father did not understand this and was not able to sell it during frenzy. When the price dropped to 2500, we felt bad and hoped that it will recover to 3500. The stock instead went down to 250 and then Sep 11 happened and the stock went all the way to Rs 10.
After my graduation in 2001, i did not had job so i took small job at stock broker as terminal operator. The job of terminal operator is to take orders and put it into the system. People will call us and give orders and we just punch them. Also the Stock broker i was working with, he shared his portfolio to me. He wanted some data and hence gave me a file containing all the stocks. I calculated his entire portfolio was worth more than 200 crores. I worked there for few months and later quit the job as i got into software company as QA engineer.
As you can see from above, i got introduced to stock markets but my knowledge was still limited to just price fluctuations. There was no knowledge of how to study companies, how big investors play stock markets, etc.
From 2004-2007:
I used to invest some money in stocks. I bought companies like Bihar caustic [now merged]. Waited in the stock for 2-3 years but i could not make much money even during the bull market. Then i bought other companies but still never was able to make money. In 2006 i took loan for house construction. So i could not save much money as i had EMI to pay. But i limited the amount of debt i had to just about 1.5 times my annual salary. I also kept EMI amount high with the intention to pay back the debt in 5 years. By 2011 i was debt free. So my savings went up from 2011. I could save about 50,000 Rs per month by 2011.
During these years Ramesh Damani used to come to chatting in moneycontrol. so he used to share his wisdom of investing.
Also during 2008 i had 4 lakh rupees which i saved from salary. I invested that amount in Eastern silk. The company went into financial trouble and i lost 3 lakhs. So that was a jolt to me.
From 2010-2021
2010: I invested 3 lakhs in Wimplast as it was at 6 PE.
2011: Invested 1.5 lakhs in Cera when it was 7 PE. This stock i saw in Ramesh Damani chat. Someone mentioned it.
2012: Godrej Properties stock ideas was given to me by Ramesh Damani.
2012: Transport Corporation. This was given by Ramesh Damani
2013: Bajaj Finance: This was given by HBJ Capital. Now they are closed
Wimplast went on to become 8 bagger when i sold it. Cera Sanitary ware i bought it at 7 PE. When it hit 20 PE and the result of one qtr was bad i sold it. Later the stock went on and on. I could only manage 4 bagger in Cera. Bought at 170 and sold at 750.
Godrej properties i invested but for many years it did not move. I kept adding money. I think i put 6-7 lakhs but the stock did not move. Ultimately i sold it during demonetisation when it fallen to 275. But now the stock is 5 bagger. Another miss.
Bajaj Finance: i saw the stock go up from by buy price of 150 to 5000. I invested 5 lakh rupees. But during corona it went down to 2000 and i was really desperate. Every one in CNBC was telling it will have bad times. From fundamental guys to technical guys. As it was large holding, i got frustrated one day and dumped it. This is in April 2020. So you guys know how much educated i am in stock markets. The reason to dump was: People were predicting job losses due to corona and high NPA. More over Bajaj finance was trading at 4 times book where as HDFC bank was trading at just 3 times book. So i thought Bajaj has more room to fall. I could not digest this big fall in stock with such high holding.
So i was in 30% cash during corona and i could see Bajaj again Rallying. Very frustrating indeed.
Laurus Labs: The money i sold Bajaj finance i bought Laurus labs. Unfortunately only with 50% of the money that i got from Bajaj i put it into Laurus. The stock went from 100 to 350 [adjusted for splits]. This idea was given by Madhusudhan kela. Still the sum of 30 lakhs went on to hit 1 crore.
Transport Corporation: I put i 3 lakhs and now its 40 lakhs.
TV Today which i bought during 2012-2016 time frames has not done much. But it did not loose money either.
Ipca: Bought during 2015 became 3 bagger.
Repco home: Lost lot of money.
Vaibhav Global: This was Vijay Kedia idea. Became 4 bagger.
So over all i am copy cat. I keep looking at big investors [mostly individual investors] what they are doing. Then i study them and buy only after researching. Also i run screener to get ideas. I dont buy all the ideas that big investors recommend.
I am mostly a 10X10 guy. 10% into 10 stocks.
I am still learning.
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What a journey bro! roller coaster ride.
During March fall, I was invested only 30% and had 70% cash. I had some blue chip financials like HDFC, HDFC bank etc. Now sometimes I feel so stupid - thinking that I could have made so much money If I fully Invested. But at that time, feeling was that market would go to 6000 levels. And when markets went up, people would give example of Spanish Flu times and said the second fall would be bigger than the first fall…
So, I have come to terms that at that point in time, what I did was correct given the situation and there is no use looking back and feeling that I missed the bus.
Thank you for sharing your experience.
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You did mistake not right thing. You need to accept this fact even though it’s harsh. We first need to be genuine with ourselves. Ruthlessly true to ourselves. The fact that timing the market is tough and hence it is better to be invested.
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