Hi Praveen,
Thanks for sharing the update on your portfolio.
I just wanted to understand your thought process on Mayur. The promoters are promising and promising each quarter and not delivering. They come up with one or another problem. I can understand the businesses are uncertain. But from the response given during the earning calls by promoters, does not instill adequate confidence. Beside that now the freight rate challenges will show up on next quarterly numbers.
Do you feel investing in this business is a mistake?
Thanks
-Manohar
Hi Manohar
Yes.
The management has always over promised and under delivered. And yes, It’s disappointing to see the management pushing the targets to next year.
My investment thesis:
- Confirmed orders from Auto OE suppliers, which are of higher margin. The growth and margin growth may lead to operating leverage and my estimation is profit of 200 cr by Fy26 04 FY27.
- Downside risk: The stock was traind at ~400 rs even in Mar 2023, when most of the stocks took a beating. This combined with anticipated profit growth (Point 1) made this co seem like a opportunity with limited downside risk at the time of purchase. My avg price is ~532 rs
- Even at current price the stock is trading 20% below it’s market price, which is not too bad compared to the correction that others have seen. And I’ll cap the downside at ~400 which is the price is Mar 2023
The management commentary in Q3 FY24 indicatds the delay in execution of orders and delay in growth. With this my returns would be lower than what I earlier anticipated (2-3 years time frame).
While this is not the best outcome for me, I don’t think it’s a mistake. It’s just that I’ll make a decent CAGR (15-20%) returns while I earlier anticipated a 25-35% CAGR.
Please share your view on this co and what you think of my investment thesis.
And why have you udpating your Portfolio thread. Would be a reader if and when you resume it
Thank you
Praveen
1 Like
Hi Praveen,
Our investment style is similar on few aspects for sure. Thats the reason I can relate to a lot with your portfolio updates.
With regards to Mayur, The long term thesis appears good for Mayur as you have stated. Especially the operating leverage part. Just that - it is testing the patience for all the investors. And with potential reduction return expectations, the other competing opportunities nudge this stock out.
The honest answer is - I am still running helter-skelter with my portfolio composition. I do have top-5-6 holdings fairly figured out, but lower end of my portfolio is still in a mess. Probably your question will inspire me better to put that in order and share on this forum.
1 Like
Hello all
This how my PF looks at the moment. No significant changes in the PF or churn in the recent times.
| Instrument |
Weight |
| FINOPB |
7.97% |
| XPROINDIA |
7.50% |
| KRSNAA |
7.45% |
| PDSL |
7.20% |
| DCMSRIND |
6.98% |
| KAMAHOLD |
6.57% |
| MAYURUNIQ |
6.48% |
| REDTAPE |
6.12% |
| ULTRAMAR |
5.88% |
| KERNEX |
5.86% |
| MOLDTECH |
5.66% |
| SAIL |
4.57% |
| MCX |
4.33% |
| SHREEPUSHK |
3.03% |
| LAURUSLABS |
2.27% |
| DEEPAKFERT |
2.19% |
| SHARDACROP |
1.83% |
| VISHNU |
1.77% |
| SBCL |
1.42% |
| NHPC |
1.40% |
| MUFTI |
1.39% |
| AARTIDRUGS |
0.78% |
| EKC |
0.77% |
| AMBIKCO |
0.41% |
| ANANDRATHI |
0.08% |
| WIPRO |
0.06% |
I find value in most of my PF stocks, but doesn’t plan to add anything to the PF due to cash crunch in near future.
Disc: No reco to buy or sell
Hello Binay
Thank you for sharing the info. I will check the results and take a decision accordingly
Cheers
Praveen
