Prasanna's portfolio

First of all - I’m a big fan of valuepickr. Its been just 6 months since I started my investing journey in the Indian markets and there has been a lot of learnings. After first two months of losing money - thanks to generous guys like Ayush, Hitesh and other valuepickrs - the portfolio performance post that has been spectacular. My friends and family are beginning to ask me to manage their money, so I would love to hear the advice of esteemed valuepickrs.

Portfolio performance so far:

Fund absolute performance: )- ~40% in 4 months.

Assets under management:

Complete order history:

Current Portfolio:

Weight% Name (Gains%)

22.51% AJANTA PHARM (20.12%)

15.22% PIIND (13.87%)

11.65% SHILPA MEDIC (37.68%)

9.94% ATULAUTO (40.90%)

7.46% POLYMED (26.63%)

6.95% KSCL (0.23%)

6.56% ALEM PHARMA (-1.95%)


4.26% DHANUKA (1.64%)

3.62% AVANTI (7.42%)

2.91% FLUIDMAT (-3.23%)

1.17% V.S.T Tillers Tractors Limited (25.61%)

0.75% NARMADAGEL (6.91%)

0.68% PENTOKEY ORG (69.52%)

0.58% PICCAGRO (-7.00%)

0.23% ORBIT EXPORT (17.28%)

0.21% GUJARAT RECL (2.16%)

0.20% SYMPHONY (1.23%)


0.11% LAOPALA (16.57%)

0.11% INDCTST (-7.84%)

Most of the small positions are either tracking positions or I just like to participate in a strong undervaluation - for no reason at all.

Recent trades that I’d love to get the comments of you guys:

(1) I’m beginning to book profits in Atul Auto. The growth has slowed down a lot, and re-rating seems limited to 15 PE - ie., 25% upside from here besides any growth we can get. Also since we can’t depend on re-rating after the recent run-up, it is unclear how wise it is to deploy capital on that. I’m moving the capital to Alembic and Shilpa.

(2) Kaveri had some seed issues off-late and there is a lot of negative publicity. Farmers seem to be disappointed with the yield. It’s unclear how this word-of-mouth is going to impact the fundamentals - as it is -ve marketing. I’m cutting my stakes in this.

(3) Avanti - I have about 3-4% of my portfolio on this one. From what I read in valuepickr the fundamentals and growth are in-tact and this year we might see 4% dividend yield at CMP if the payout ratio remains. I plan to hold this position - maybe even add till 5% of my portfolio if the price comes down.

Other questions:

Purely wrt valuation - and not wrt conviction - which do you find more undervalued - Shilpa or Alembic? I feel Shilpa based on the forex swing, since it would correct sooner than the R&D expenses show results.

Thank you for your time and feedback!

1 Like

Dear Prasanna,

I will go with alembic pharma…

regading atul auto…there is big potential to grow further…

one question brother…how come u r 3.4 lks potfoio becomes 50 lks…in the span of 4 months…Ur PF graph is showing like that…

Please refrain from disclosing the AUM and the orders list.

You may introduce yourself at the following :

@Divi: That just indicates more money is being invested. It din’t grow that much.

@Manish: Cool - I can remove the AUM and orders list. But I don’t think I can edit it anymore?

Prasanna, I don’t think you should start managing money with a 6 month track record. For anyone to do that should have at least 10-15 years of investment experience and should have seen at least two major bear markets. Anyway, your portfolio is a replica of Valuepickr portfolio -Ajanta, PI Inds, Alembic, Kaveri seeds, Polymed etc. I can’t see any fresh ideas.

Please take this in right spirit.

Hi Prasanna,
Portfolio looks decent.I would say you delete the ones with less than 1% weightage or add funds to give them a higher place in the PF.Such low weightages would hardly make a difference,even if they rally.If you are risk-averse,then why buy such micro caps anyway?
And Please give a thought to Rahul’s view.Managing someone else’s money is big responsibility & it won’t take much for you to come in the firing line.Avoid going overboard with the good performance of your PF.And if you want to be adventurous do it with smaller money.And KEEP learning.Rest is certainly upto you.


Thank you for your advice. I do agree the lack of experience on my part. And the replication of ideas from valuepickr is deliberate. It saves me a lot of time and research, and one has to admit senior valuepickrs are the experts at what they do.

There is a lot of ‘alpha’ here based on the information edge, that I would love to access with my own portfolio and maybe some of my close friends & family. It would absolutely suck if I lost money since I aim to be 100% equities (no diversification). I really don’t mind fluctuations - it’s the permanent loss of capital that I hate.

You have a point and I have never seen a bear market. Nor have I ever lost a lot of money on equities. I’ve been investing in the US for about a year now, but moving all my funds slowly to India because of the phenomenal alpha here.

I do like the companies mentioned above and I feel safe buying them even if I pay a 30-50% premium buying them. The quality of growth seems to be very good and the premium usually translates to just waiting for a while. This can have drawdowns which I don’t mind.

I’d really appreciate if you can point me to the common lessons first time investors like me get to learn during the bear markets.


Thanks for your comments. As I mentioned the small positions are strictly for tracking purposes and I don’t hold them for the gains. Small weights are useless - I know. I run a concentrated portfolio by most senior valuepickr’s standards :slight_smile:

1 Like

Love to have the seniors comment on the lessons from my first year of investing. It’s important not to learn the wrong things, hence it would be invaluable to hear your inline comments and reasoning.

Lessons from my first doubling

So how good was I in my buying and selling decisions? As a responsible quant, hereâs what I tested. I took all my past orders and removed all the buy orders. Changed the sell orders to buy. i.e., Iâm creating a hypothetical portfolio that just buys everything I sell. Here are the returns for that portfolio:

It had almost similar returns of 135% (vs 160% in the original pf); It came with slightly less volatility - but almost similar. To put things in perspective, the difference in returns between the two strategies was: (260/235) = 10%; Not much of a difference at all.

Good stocks; Bad Seller

This tells me Iâm a bad seller. I could have easily avoided a ton of taxes had i just invested and held on. On the other hand, one can hardly complain with these kinds of returns. Most of the credits go to the investment community who has been a constant source of ideas. I merely chose the high conviction ones and took a concentrated portfolio of 6-8 stocks that I thought had the best inflection points playing out.

Specifically shout out to Ayush Mittal, Hitesh Patel, Donald and several others who have been very altruistic in sharing ideas with me.

Let us analyze the biggest winners post sale (i.e, my misses.) to see how much I can improve in the selling department.

Kaveri Seeds - 2x since sale

This was a big miss, because it was also one of the big concentrated positions. I sold it because at that time, there were farmer suicides and accusations of fake seeds sold by Kaveri. The price I sold it was the lowest in itâs charts. In retrospect it proved to be such a bad sale with the timing of it, since everyone wanted to sell. Point of maximum pessimism - it turned out to be.

OTOH, could farmer suicides have been a big issue? Could it have possibly impacted sales down the line? Was there a chance of govt intervention and fines being levied? These are unanswered questions in my mind.

Astral Polytechnik - 3x since sale.

This was another big miss, and I feel most of the investors missed the full run here almost certainly. The reason for the sale was, the company was trading at PE of 20 and I was worried it was a commodity business. The company manufactures plastics, and the management repeatedly said it was a capacity driven play with almost fixed margins. The more one adds capacity the more money one makes. If new capacity comes up, I thought, the business might start becoming seasonal, and the pricing power of the company in the long run is minimal.There were some signs of monopoly I dinât miss - The company had unique sourcing agreements with Berkshire Hathaway, and it was the only one who could manufacture that quality. But I felt it was a temporary arrangement and could not be depended upon over a long period of time.

The company has continued to deliver good growth and PE is now at 40.Market so far has clearly rewarded monopoly status.

Iâm interested in the lessons to be learnt here. As always the world is not black and white, as one might wish.

Cera Sanitaryware - 2.5x since sale

I sold it when the quarterly report told me the margins were compressing. The company was growing handsomely for a long time, but was entering into a highly competitive territory. The management had clearly guided margin compression and said unlike previous expectations is not able to maintain pricing power as a new entrant.

The fundamentals have played out as expected - it easily underperformed the median profit growth in my portfolio. But the PE is currently sitting at 32, and it was 14 when I sold. Again my point of sales was the lowest price point the company touched after. Clearly a bad timing in retrospect.

If I do not sell in this case, when do I sell ever? :slight_smile: Regardless of justifications, markets have a way of proving you wrong.

Fluidomat - 2x since sale

This was my first success story - I entirely discovered this gem on my own. I also did a lot of ground work, calling the management and putting the story together. Great company I thought. I bought it at 50 and sold it near 75-85. Itâs now at 150.

I sold it when the profit growth was active but the sales growth was absent. They were making things more efficient internally and creating profits but without sales growth a small company may not catch market fancy for several years. The fundamentals played out justifying my sale. The profit growth for the year was merely 10% and the sales growth was -ve, severely underperforming my median holding.

But it caught market fancy, when the bull market began. It re-rated from 6 to 12 PE. This PE it has not attained in the past bull markets, and I canât see how i could have expected it. Well, well.

Atul Auto - 60% up since sale

Bought around 180 (8 PE), sold around 300 (12 PE) when the auto sector had heavily slowed down. The stock today is around 460 (18 PE). The company had very limited sales growth back then, and as I expected, it was slow for the remainder of the year. The sales growth for the year was 18% and profit growth merely 15%; This was poor compared to median growth of 50% in my portfolio.

The company was going through a temporary rough patch. It had the ability to create a lot of wealth with very little additional investments. OTOH, it had also reached high market penetration and people expected the growth to permanently slow down at some level. There were also risks that the company was trying to get into 4 wheeler space and it was super competitive.

Would i opt for the above risk reward? Only if I knew the results. :slight_smile:


In each of the individual cases, it has been a hard surprise. Knowing myself, I feel like, I would do the same thing if the situation presented itself again.

Itâs easy to say the above, but itâs also hard to just settle for that. Being self-critical with an open mind is what we all strive for, isnât it?

A few learinings

(1) I could avoid selling at the worst possible time better. I canât be perfect here, but I can second guess what the whole market is going to be doing. Sensing fire sale in the market and not selling is a fix thatâs reasonable to expect from me in the future.

(2) I could give tangible value to momentum. Being a value investor this is one of the hardest lessons. Stocks donât move for a long time and when they choose to move, they do it in incredibly short periods of time. We can easily assess the discount to fair value but we are anchored not to participate in momentum. We have seen lower prices before and we feel the stock price might just correct back. Although we very well know over the longer term this story deserves a better PE ratio.

A current scenario - VST Tillers

‘VST Tillers & Tractors’ did a 4X this year. Market suddenly fell in love with the stock and it got rewarded with very good PE ratios. The company has just completed a large capacity expansion and we are yet to see its full benefits.

OTOH, The company does have an El Nino risk in my mind, related to uneven monsoon rain, and hence people hesitating to invest in tractors. So should I sell my large holdings or at-least a part of it?

The first question should be - how much does an average farmer contemplating a tiller investment foresee/fear the El Nino. The second question, probably the more important one - as I must be learning from this whole post - is how much is the market usually willing to tolerate out this near term pain - if it so happens.

It is a complex complex world out there.

Dear Prasanna

“It is a complex complex world out there”, could not agree with you more.

Thank you for candidly sharing your experience with your “sells”. I am sure we can learn from your experience, and also relate to it, given that many of us have made similar “mistakes”.


1 Like