MCX 12.21
ORIENT CEMENT 9.55
OBEROI REALTY 13.14
MINDTREE 11.85
ATUL AUTO 10.24
UNITED SPIRITS 11.80
KAJARIA CEREMICS 10.81
TECH MAHINDRA 11.38
DEWAN HOUSING 9.01
++ Some Bonds
Looking forward to ur views on the portfolio …I feel markets are not to my comfort zone to buy therefore adding cash for watever i get as dividends and interest on Bonds…
I will only buy if the price are near my intrinsic value( according to me). The stock avg. price is below my Max buy price.
looks good but i would be shy in investing in dewan housing it’s the most expensive valuations wise.
the other exception for me would be oberoi reality with the property prices already sky high in mumbai they can remain stagnant or fall in coming years…when property prices fell in tokyo they sunk to multi year decade lows. to be read as statutory warning 
but on the contrary some times more money is made if you don’t invest in a copy book style and follow what every second person is doing. keep monitoring and keep the conviction…good luck!
My purchase price on Dewan house fin. is lower than Book value so my purchase price is not expensive… Oberoi realty is more of a trading bet will exit once my price is met…
But thanks for your views…
I like your independence. Not being easily swayed has to be an asset more often than not in the market, especially the one facing us now.
Hi bhupesh,
Can you please explain, how DHFL is expensive. I see PE < 10 ?
Financial sector should be valued on Book Value, NIM and NPA… not on PE … I hope that should be helpful …@Ashish
Selling Orient Cements as company has expanded 3MTPA plant for FY2016 … for which company has loan agreement of about 1100 Cr. which is 5-6 times of Ebita … I dont like to pay for companies which have more than 3-4 times debt of its Ebita , therefore i see a margin hit on the company for atleast 2 years , which makes a sell with a decent profit.
Buying a TVS motors as loan is reduced and company plans to reduce its loan book by another 100 cr. this FY , plus tie up with BMW for bikes is better for TVS brand.
Only problem with the company is its operating at 6% Ebita margin whereas peers operate at 12% margin hopefully with next few quaters they improve margins.
Management is not very open to media , However company is trading less than its Sales
hi Navtej,
Even from P/B & P/S DHFL look reasonably cheaper that other sector comparables…
like repco/ gruh etc… I am new to investing & this forum.
Can you please help in explaining?
Even Rakesh jhunjhunwala, took stake & said in interview it’s undervalued stock & Oppurnity size is very big.
A DHFL was below its book value ,Around 0.7% NPA , Interest margin of around 2.5(approx)
Which has a comparable record with the best of the company in this industry… Now the question is why was it trading low …
I guess in 2012 or 2011 i can’t really remember company’s promoter had some issues with a related with firm which had a carry down effect on DHFL…
With crisil giving a high rating to the company it assured investors like RJ to enter ( I think)…
That was the story line for DHFL … But y give a buy on DHFL at 2 times of its BV now unless its not a trading bet.
But however there are ppl. who rate Housing finance companies till 2.5 times as an o.k. price to pay but that’s more of an individual choice
Updating on my latest visit to oberoi sales office in mumbai…
Points (gud)
1). Sales have started picking up on esquire and exe. towers since Jan.
2). Company is able to pass on the prices
3). New project on Mulund and Tata land will start next year.
4). Company issued bonds worth 750 cr. to be repaid in next 3-4 yrs. therefore i should improve the return on capital employed .
Points (bad)
1). Sales have picked up but still large floor space is left unsold.
2). New project will take more time to sell as real estate market is still very slow.
however sales are better than last few years and shows positive sign going forward … therefore will still hold on to the stock
I have constructed an Earnings Model for Oberoi Realty. Attached here. Comments Please
Oberoi-Realty-Model.xlsx (10.7 KB)
more or less the same but only thing i am not sure of is Income recognition of Sales for ex.
sales from flats can be inconsistent as both prices and demand of flat increase when near completion . They expect esquire to finish by FY 16-17 also rate of exquisite are now at 17500 psf(i remember it starting around 13-14000) and they will deliver the flat by this year end for exquisite.
So the revenue will be realized by not sure on the time line…
| MCX 10.42 |
| TVS Motor 9.77 |
| ICICI BANK 10.4 |
| ATUL AUTO 9.84 |
| UNITED SPIRITS 10.02 |
| KAJARIA CEREMICS 10.36 |
| TECH MAHINDRA 10.16 |
| DEWAN HOUSING 9.75 |
| REPCO HOME FINANCE 9.75 |
| APOLLO TYRE 9.43 |
some tweaking in portfolio in last 30-40 days
questions, opinions and advise will be appreciated
all of sudden market are so boring(expensive valuation therefore not buying) , i have shifted my hobbies …
MCX 9.98
TVS Motor 4.89
EICHER MOTOR4.70
ATUL AUTO 9.98
UNITED SPIRITS 9.60
KAJARIA CEREMICS 9.96
ASIAN PAINTS 9.93
DEWAN HOUSING 4.97
REPCO HOME FINANCE 5.01
AXIS BANK 9.94
Some profit booking and re adjusting of portfolio in last 30-40 days …
Seeking views of fellow members…
Portfolio is too much inclined towards economic recovery related stocks in my opinion - TVS, Kajaria, Dewan, Axis and Repco, MCX, atul autoare all related. Pharma, IT, Pure FMCG, Consumer durables, Media, Agrochemicals/seeds/Industrials are wealth creating sectors and one needs to be invested in them for long term and for necessary diversification. The stock selection is though good baring Atul Auto, TVS and Repco but I believe some sectors needs to be included to be called as proper portfolio.
Dear Natvej, Given that cost to income ratio of DHFL is almost double as compared to their nearest competitor, it makes me uncomfortable as whenever there is an increase in competition and yields reduce DHFL will be the first to be affected and slip into the red. What is your view?
Also, with commodity prices falling by the day, the volatility and overall turnover in commodities trading is expected to reduce which might have an impact on MCX turnover and profits. Do you have an opinion?
@varun : u r right but i dont buy more than 8-10 companies(Easy to handle). Earlier i sold out of IT as u can see my july portfolio to add more HFC. i see ur point and i feel u r right. should add some defensive like FMCG (for pharma i am still reading and getting accustomed to the sector)… thanks
@Abhishek i started adding MCX in ranges of 400 or so. I think it is a long term story of 10-14 years, it’s like buying NSE in early 1990’s. DHFL I think yield is a factor of capital cost and not income ratio. for HFC’s i feel wide market reach, NPA and Book value is my first criteria to buy. rest is just a comparison.