Portfolio Analysis

Hi everyone,

Im pleased to be in this community. Have heard a lot about this group. Would love for some of you to audit one of my portfolios.

Hopefully it’ll give some people investment ideas and give me precaution and exit strategy.

Welcome to the community!
On your exit strategy question, you can decide the exit based on the following

  • Valuations (Extremely Valued)
  • Technical Chart - 30 EMA shaping downwards on Weekly or Monthly Charts
  • Technical Chart - Vstop turning red with Volumes.

To sum it up, your exits must be careful and very thoughtful.

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Hi, more than 10-15% allocation in a stock is not recommended (Jindal Drillings). Please consider cutting it down.

it ended up going up quite a bit, I feel its just at the beginning of a greater bull run so I haven’t trimmed down on it yet but thanks for the caution message, I realise one news could run the entire portfolio down.

Hi Mayank , Can you please elaborate about VSTOP stoploss? I see in tradingview as length is 20 and multiplier as 2. What setting you use as an investor?
Also the bottom line color is green and upper line is green … so how you decide to sell the stock? Near Red line or Green Line?

Hi Ranjan,

I use the multiplier as 2.5 initially if the valuation is not high. Given the current scenarios in the market, I keep the multiplier as 1.5 for insane valuations and 2 for reasonable valuation on a monthly and weekly chart.

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Hi @Mayank_Bajpai ,

In trading view , I could not find any Length Monthly so used below setting for monthly chart . Is it the same settings which you are also using ? Thanks for educating !

How long have you been investing? What was your thought process of having so much allocation in Jindal Drilling?

Okay so ive been investing for 9 odd years.

Jindal Drilling I bought in the post covid era expecting a revival in crude consumption and there were talks on revising drilling charges so I bought some and I added more after I saw a technical breakout. Mostly I bought seeing it as a desi crude play, and then since the past 6 quarters they’ve kept on giving out great commentary and financials so ive just held on.

Tbh, ive always had a big list of stocks but seeing the rich valuations ive sold quite a bit of my holding and now I’m just holding onto some stocks that were either too convincing on a 5 year forecast or if someone strongly recommended me to buy some (like Subex, Adani Ent & Shree Renuka).

This is fine… you can use it for weekly timeframe as well. When you see valuation is insane, tighten your Vstop.

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Update on the portfolio.

Some pointers:

  1. Continuing to hold Jindal Drilling as they’ve added rigs to enhance capacity. proxy play for Infrastructural development in India.
  2. Exiting Jindal Saw purely to book profits.
  3. Looking to exit Accuracy to book profits as well.
  4. Adding HDFC Bank to incorporate a large cap share with cheap valuation.
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