Credit rating pr-Piccadily-AgroIndustries-23jan24.pdf (284.1 KB)
It shows a debt of 271 cr whereas on the screener it has Rs 163 cr debt. Seems debt has increased or it is the loan limit and they have not utilized fully.
The total single malt whiskey market size in India currently is around less than 3000 Cr according to the article below. Hence some of the bull theories presented on the thread that revenue just based on Indri will grow to thousands of crores in few years seems overblown, unless they launch a new mass market brand in the blended whiskey in the price range for Rs 500-1000 which is a much larger market. The single malt whiskey is less than 2% of the overall whiskey market in India.
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In the thread above, I couldnât find any place where it has been stated that the revenue based on Indri alone would be thousands of crores. At best, it is implied that the EBITDA could be 300cr (Rs 400 per bottle) from Indri based on 25% margins for single malt (which implies a revenue of 1200cr) which is based on 20,000 bottles per day capacity the management is aiming for - ( Indian Single Malts Are Brewing A Global Change | Food Reviews News, Times Now (timesnownews.com) )
Also, please bear in mind:
- the domestic Indian single malt market has been growing at >20% for last few years which means market doubles every ~3yrs
(in fact, Indian SMW market grew by CAGR ~50% over the last 5yrs - Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd - #79 by anon ) - a large portion of production - almost 25-70% based on brand - of Indian single malts is exported so it wont come under domestic market size
- in 2023 Indian single malt sold more than the foreign scotch whisky.
- There is a growing trend from mass market to premiumization as was also stated by Diageo in their recent earning call.
Finally, please note that Indri is only a small part (at least currently) of Piccadily Distillery segment - they have a number of other products/brands as well as malt spirit, ENA and ethanol biz and also setting up a new dual feed distilley in Chhattisgarh which will be operational by Sep 2025 under GoIâs ethanol programme.
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Results for the quarter ending Dec 2023 are out. Almost 4x jump in profits from last quarter. (Amount in Lakhs)
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Yeah. Just now checked.
In the whole Quarterly Profit of 45 Cr, about 29 Cr is coming from exceptional gains. No wonder the performance is still solid but wanted to understand if any one can provide details as to where is this exceptional gains is coming from. I didnât get any details from the earnings report regarding this, my only guess is if the these gains were made by selling some assets allocated to Sugar seem to have reduced. Please do share if anyone here provide more light on this.
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As expected, Indri story seems to be playing out in actual numbers now - excellent quarterly result !!!
I will ignore the sugar segment as that is of not much importance to us. We are here for the distillery segment.
Distillery Segment Result Analysis:
Decâ23 Qtr Sales have grown by 60% YoY from 97cr to 155cr and by 48% QoQ from 105cr to 155cr.
EBIT has grown by 100% YoY from 19cr to 38cr and by 107% QoQ from 18cr to 38cr
EBITDA has grown by 100% from 20cr to 40cr YoY and 100% QoQ from 20cr to 40cr. (Depreciation of 2cr for distillery segment is assumed on a pro-rata basis from the total depreciation of 3.69cr)
EBITDA margin grown from 21% in Q3âFY23 and 19% in Q2âFY24 to 26% in the Dec qtr
More interestingly, sales increased by 50cr from Q2 to Q3, and EBITDA by 20cr, implying an incremental EBITDA margin of 40%. I guess it would be safe to assume most of it has been contributed by Indri. Thus, an EBITDA margin of 25% as was assumed in the post below 
seems to be quite conservative.
So, based on Q3 annualized number we get an EBITDA of 160cr per annum. And next year EBITDA should easily cross 200cr even with a 25% sales growth.
Now, Radico trades at almost 50x TTM EBITDA of 462cr. Piccadily with its superior growth and EBITDA margins comapared to Radico should also trade at that level implying a MCap of 50x 200cr = 10,000cr by next year compared to 2800cr MCap currently.
(PS: BTW Indri continues to go out-of-stock regularly in North India - It wasnt available at Delhi Intl. Airport about 10 days ago. Sales staff say stock sells out faster than they can replenish - one can verify this anecdotal evidence themselves)
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@nomind - No one said anything about thousands of crores. Not sure where you got it from. Right from the beginning most of us have Radico Khaitan in mind as a sort of comparison benchmark. I reckon Piccadily would be on par with Radico by end of FY 2024-25.
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From Businesswire:
Speaking on the milestone achievement, Siddhartha Sharma, Founder, Piccadily Agro Industries Limited , said, âWe are extremely pleased with the exceptional growth achieved during the third quarter. This achievement is a testament to the dedication and hard work of our team, as well as our commitment to operational excellence and innovation. Looking ahead, we are confident in the divisionâs ability to maintain this momentum and drive continued success for the company.â
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Piccadily Agro stock to be listed on NSE too. This should improve liquidity and drive further interest and research in the stock.
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They have launched a new indri variant named indri dru as wellâŚwhich seems to have different flavour than Trini and has won a couple of awards already âŚ
I wish the company becomes a bit more transparent about its plans and product launches âŚ
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Yesterday, at a liquor shop in posh South Delhi locality, I saw miniature bottles of Indri (50 or 60ml ones). Although miniature bottle versions are quite common outside India, it is quite a novel concept here for premium whisky.
In response to my query, the store sales guy said that it is the best selling premium whisky in their shop with sales trajectory increasing with time.
Further, Dubai Duty free has now started selling Indri and it is being launched in Nepal as well.
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Any idea about seasonally which quarter is the best for the company?
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Thanks for the scuttlebutt bro.
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