when you see the segmental result, Q4 -24 has 186 Cr distillery sales and profit of 58 cr. Mar-25 qtr has 148 cr distillery sales and profit of 53 cr. Despite 20% reduction in sales, profit dropped by only 10%, thus products sold commanded a better price, which also reflects when we see the margin grown to 26%. Suger sales increased due to seasonality. I think, They would not have sufficient aged product for sales. I was hearing one of the interviews and they seems to send products in the market only post 3 years of aging. Since Indri too off, They will not have sufficient 3 years or above aged in required volume. I may be wrong. Lots of capacity addition in progress, hopefully they again do not have any pretentions about numbers next year same time. They may have added sufficient casks in last few years for the expected growth. Lets see if they come up with presentation with explanation about numbers.
Can someone download press release/presentation from bseindia and upload here.
q4fy25_press_release.pdf (466.6 KB)
Press release for Mar quarter for Piccadily.
@moons This process is not scalable , you will have to do this on your own with some friends downloading it and sharing it with you offline. Please dont spam the forum with such requests.
Piccadily had done 211 Cr in FY24 when it comes to luxury spirits. Assuming a revenue growth of 30%, this is roughly around 270 Cr in FY25. To catch up to Radico, theyâd really need a wider product basket and a distribution network in South, which is the market for whiskey and rum.
Trying to make sense of the results - it is clear that country liquor sales have gone down in the quarter substantially. Had luxury alco bev degrown, EBITDA impact would have been brutal. For the full year, the distillery margins have reached 28%.
I donât think further EBITDA margin ramp-up is possible from here.. bulk of the profitability growth will be top-line driven.
FY26 is likely to be make or break for this stock. They need to deliver on 30%+ PAT growth to sustain current valuations. It is possible if they ramp-up product category expansion.
Itâs a very hot candidate for this type of setup.
No concalls + No AGM Notes + Very high selling product but not visible in sales + political family + liquor industry + No credible investor invested (people are dying to generate alpha but everyone is skipping THE INDRI)
I know people will spam this message, but people who have invested their hard money should also try to investigate this POV.
Good to see people finally getting the issue right, also that Radico is leaving behind Piccadily in a space we assume Piccadily leads. Still Invested only in Piccadily waiting to exit right.
Also, I would like to bring up a trend I came across recently on X and InstagramâŚDonât know the degree of impact for now but whenever there is a post related to Indri or Piccadily we can find 100s of people rushing to comment âBoycott Indriâ why? Because of the infamous Jessica lalâs caseâŚthere was a News article which bought this up a couple months agoâŚmight be paid but did cause some damage.
They increased their IMFL sales volume by 37% plus and revenue 40% over last FY . That includes Indri too . If IMFL volume increases ,they can increase on margin too. The OPM at company level is 22% this year compared to 20% last year and this can continue.The problem is that they have a heavy volume of low margin business as well ,which they are reducing and that is causing the revenue dip.
They do not need to buy casks every month ⌠but how much Indri they can sell at the moment is limited by their stock that was put in to mature years ago . Its the general assumption that Indri is running out of stock but I have seen it in stores in Spencers and many of my friends have tasted it by now .Last year everybody had heard about it but most had not been able to buy one .A voulme growth of 37% is not bad by any means and they are hardly likely to sell all before they produce anew.
Regarding Camikara,300% growth is obviously on a low base âŚdoes anyone have any idea about its reception ?
As a business, Picadilly is unlikely to show great topline growth for atleast another year but clearly the focus is on margins ,as in this business premiumization is the holy grail and they are going to launch new premium products.
If you read through this topic from the beginning you will see that investors left the counter when the previous CEO resigned .But just check the stock performance (10x in 10 years) before Indri came into limelight even after most people sold out in 2013 . Admittedly the management does not care two hoots about retail shareholders but it does for its business and they have the track record . They know their stuff.
The jessica Lal thing has been the thorn for a while..its nothing new. But probably Piyush Goyal mentioning Indri at parliament brought in some political trolls .This does result in many respected investors staying away from it .However, during last years fund raise Hiren Vedâs Alchemy capital had subscribed heavily and these should convert to shares after 30th July. Since these were issued at 744, let see whether they hold or sell out
Disc: still 6% of my portfolio. I have taken out 7X of my original invested capital so canât say I have my hard earned money in it anymore .But I still think it is a good company to have unless one is in a hurry .I am not .
Edit notes: Grammar correction only.
Piccadily has two segments Sugar and distillery further distillery is divided into two revenue streams IMFL and ENA. IMFL consists of Indri, Camicara etc. and ENA is whatever malt or ethanol the company sells.
This quarter the weakness is seen in the distillery segment with sales de-growing from 186 crores to 148 crores. Lets analyse the reason for same. According to press release IMFL sales grew by 40% to 380 crores therefore the sales of ENA is 256 crores whereas last year IMFL sales was 272 crores and ENA sales was 280 crores. But this is surprising since the prices of ENA increased in financial year 2025 compared to financial year 2024. Therefore either company produced or sold less ENA or produced the same but sold less ENA. If we investigate further the cash flow statement shows an exceptional inventory increase of 100 crores, together with increase in the number of barrels my fair guess is company stored ENA in barrels and sold less quantity of it. This should bear fruits in the future.
Now lets turn our attention towards the expansion at Indri and Chattisgarh. Both the capacities should be ready and producing by third quarter of financial year 2026. If we assume the following -
- Indri & Chhattisgarh new capacity run at 50% for Q3 & Q4 (6 months)
- ENA realization: âš60/litre
- IMFL grows 40% YoY, same as FY25
- Sugar business grows modestly by 5%
- PAT margin improves from FY25 by 50 bps due to premium product mix
My projection is FY26 revenue could be around 1200 crores and net profit close to 150 crores.
Disclaimer: Invested in Piccadily. This post is for academic purposes only, based on publicly available information, company announcements and my assumptions. Iâm not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser, and this is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I may be completely wrong. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered advisor.
Company did Rs 142 crs recurring PBT in FY25 v/s Rs 146-29 = Rs117 crs recurring PAT in FY24. This is 21% growth in PBT YoY.
Company ended FY25 with inventory of Rs 303 crs v/s Rs 196 crs in FY24. Hopefully this should help in H1FY26 results.
Company has Rs 201 crs in CWIP which I hope gets capitalized in 3QFY26 and starts producing revenues,
This one will be a slow grind up. If you are impatient you should exit.
Have exited this counter today - no near term triggers (next 6 mos). I will look to re-enter this closer to Q2 results. Give that the stock is already at 50x TTM PE, thereâs limited upside unless earnings go up dramatically (which they will.. in FY27 in my view).
2 luxury products (hopefully one gin) will help with the seasonal business too.
Radico Khaitan is trading at 94 p/e, Tilaknagar with CG issues trades at 40 tax adjusted. What would be the fair value here?
Part of the capacity addition I was looking for, this can play out as a short-term trigger for growth if there are no delays in Commissioning/Statutory approvals. To thrive, they will eventually have to evolve into a brand with products catering to all different classes, and this increase in capacity might also open doors to newer products. Although the future looks hazy and lack of con-calls makes it even worse, this trigger might give an opportunity to exit right for the ones looking to.
At a very high level, I want to understand what is hampering high growth in revenues and profits given
- A premium brand that has won awards and made waves internationally
- Strong demand(anecdotal)
Toh phir problem kya hai? Scratching my head on this one.
PS: I was very disappointed by the numbers. Trimmed my stake.
As a investor only interested in IMFL business. Going to be huge positive for piccadily i think
from inv presentation " EVALUATE OPTIONS FOR SUGAR BUSINESS INCLUDING DIVESTMENT/DEMERGER".
As per the investor presentation, malt distillery/barrel maturation started in 2010. In 2022, they released a 12 year aged rum. So, they started aging the rum, as soon as they started? And only if they keet adding new barrels every year since then can they continuously supply these 12 year olds, right? Is there so much inventory? Then there is the 8 year old and now the 3 year old. Most probably they will have very less 12/8 year olds and a lot of low value 3 year olds going forward.
Anyways, my guess is that the sales growth has peaked due to insufficient raw materials/barrels of aged liquor. A lot of capacity addition happened in last 2 fiscals, which means, it will take a lot of time before those batches will be ready for sale.
Sold most of my holding and now just holding a tracking position.
Piccadily launches Cashmir, Small-Batch Luxury vodka made with heritage organic Indian winter wheat and Kashmir water, expanding premium spirits portfolio.
1cf78caf-c2d2-46c0-9ab0-f3dd1189f1e8.pdf (1.6 MB)
Compelled to revisit some of my thesis here after the investor presentation said IMFL margins are higher.
Margins will further expand in the distillery segment as the share of IMFL goes up and hence for the overall co.
I did a scenario analysis of what the margins could be for IMFL and other distillery segments:-
| Segment | Revenue | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFL | 380 | 45% | 35% | 38% | 40% |
| Other Distillery | 257 | 8% | 23% | 19% | 16% |
| 637 | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% | |
| IMFL EBIT | 171 | 133 | 144 | 152 | |
| Other Distillery EBIT | 21 | 59 | 48 | 40 | |
| Total | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 |
To my mind, somewhere between scenario 3 and 4 is where the story lies..
Future projections basis 25% growth assumption for IMFL only
Margins for each segment taken as average of scenario 3 and scenario 4
Stagnant revenues assumed for other distillery products
| IMFL CAGR Growth (Assumption) | 25% | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
| IMFL | 475 | 594 | 742 |
| Other Distillery | 257 | 257 | 257 |
| Total Revenues | 732 | 851 | 999 |
| EBIT | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
| IMFL | 185 | 232 | 289 |
| Other Distillery | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Total EBIT | 229 | 276 | 334 |
| EBIT Multiple | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Valuation | 7,571 | 9,099 | 11,010 |
Key assumption here is that other distillery segment remains stagnant when we all know that wonât happen.
Also, please note the numbers are super super conservative. The distribution for Piccadily has expanded drastically. Critical whisky and rum markets have only been penetrated in Q4FY25. See below
| Q1FY25 | Q2FY25 | Q3FY25 | Q4FY25 | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Countries | 25 | 25 | 28 | 28 | Spain & Malaysia - critical markets added in Q3 |
| States | 20 | 21 | 23 | 28 | Key southern markets added in Q4 i.e. Andhra, TN and Kerala |
| India Duty Free | 8 | 11 | 15 | 16 | |
| International Duty Free | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
Radico and USL, both trade at 60-65 times EBIT at present.
Did some sensitivity analysis too:-
Y axis - exit EBIT multiple for FY28
X axis - YoY Growth rates for IMFL segment
| Scenario Analysis | 25% | 26% | 27% | 28% | 29% | 30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 12,678 | 12,944 | 13,214 | 13,489 | 13,768 | 14,051 |
| 40 | 13,345 | 13,625 | 13,910 | 14,199 | 14,493 | 14,791 |
| 42 | 14,012 | 14,306 | 14,605 | 14,909 | 15,217 | 15,530 |
| 44 | 14,680 | 14,988 | 15,301 | 15,619 | 15,942 | 16,270 |
| 46 | 15,347 | 15,669 | 15,996 | 16,329 | 16,666 | 17,009 |
| 48 | 16,014 | 16,350 | 16,692 | 17,039 | 17,391 | 17,749 |
| 50 | 16,681 | 17,031 | 17,387 | 17,749 | 18,116 | 18,488 |
Parts in bold is the likely outcome come FY28. Key triggers - new products, rising supply (barrels, malts, etc.)
This is my thesis on this stock.. happy to listen to counters.
Btw the discounted EBIT multiple takes care of sugar business as part of the overall co. If demerger etc happens, multiple could rerate further.
EDIT - will look to add this again in coming weeks. Itâs at a good entry point at present.
Also Iâm surprised as to how so few people have appreciated the fact that Piccadily has the vision to gain expertise and just be part of the ecosystem in Scotland via its distillery there. This is far ahead of competition and they will reap fruits of it in next 5-10 years.
The co does have all the potential to be the flagbearer of Indian spirits industry.
Will revisit these assumptions in Q1FY26 since I expect it to be bumper given geographical expansion in critical south markets