I have dropped a mail to the MD, letâs see if we get a response. Will try getting in touch with the company and let you all know if things move further so that we can have a few questions answered.
The number of cases sold for each brand is mentioned in the annual report. Next annual report will contain the updated figures.
Some things like maturation period are things distillers prefer not to advertise. There is no legal or moral requirement to state maturation period for No Age Statement whisky. My guess is that the final product is a blend from casks of various maturation periods.
Does the result bother you?
Hi Gaurav,
Rs 3000/ per bottle MRP includes excise duties and other levies , distributor margins , market spends and other overhead charges . you should always see sales net of excise duties . Also PAIL is a single brand company whatever other brands they have are in developmental stage. PAIL has one of the largest malt spirits plant in India and they sell large quantity of bulk malt spirits to other players .
Establishing a single malt in international and domestic markets requires deep pockets and investments and you are competing with Diageoâs Pernodâs . William Grants, LMVH brown Formanâs and Bacardiâs of the world who have products in all categories of alcohol i.e Scotch . American whiskies , vodka , Rum , Tequila Gins etc. Also PAIL management is also not quite transparent and belongs to political family infamous Manu Sharma.Indri as brand is doing well and is among leading single malt from India .
Assuming some of these investors know the business plans of promoters!
I believe sales for Indri declined QoQ due to inventory build up caused by sudden demand spike and fall.
Now, during summer months all the inventory at retailers got liquidated and generated a demand of 25,000 cases. So, this is the base, which is now firmly established, and from here on expect Indri sales to grow steadily. In winter months of Q3 & Q4, we should expect a big spurt again.
Below are some points I was able to deduce based on latest and past filings:
- PAIL sells Indri for approx. Rs 21,000 per case (Rs 1770 per bottle)
- In Distillery segment - 50cr revnue came from Indri and maybe 5cr from other premium products and the remaining 65cr from ethanol, maly spirit, country liquor, other IMFL brands, etc.
- QoQ result decline wasnât just about Indri - it seems approx. ~30-40cr was due to Indri, and the remaining 20-30 cr was due to fall in sales of other products. I suspect sales fall to be in ethanol due to some gov. policy issues and in malt spirit as perhaps now PAIL wishes to store malt spirit in barrels to make Indri single malt rather than sell the raw material to other companies to make malt whisky.
- PAIL sells Indri at an EBITDA of close to 40% - that is just incredible !!
And some anecdotal observations:
- I went to 2 parties in the last 1 month and at both the places the only whisky being served was Indri
- I went to 2 liquor store in South Delhi recently. One said Indri is their top selling brand and the other said that Indri has replaced all other whiskies and is now the default option at wedding & other parties
- Everyone of drinking age has heard of Indri. Most talk favourably about it and so many take pride in drinking it as a great Indian product. I observe the brand stickiness.
My view:
- I expect FY25 EBITDA to be ~180cr.
- EBITDA could be a lot higher if the capacity expansion starts contributing
- Indri would easily be a 100cr PAT brand by FY26 and still growing strongly.
- Distillery segment (excluding Indri) will also continue to grow as new capacity comes online and sales of ethanol, malt spirit, IMFL, etc continue to grow at their natural pace.
- Expect many new launches & brands going forward
- I expect a lot of buzz to be created around Camikara in the next few months
First presentation. Welcome move from the management. Possibly the effect of institutional investors coming in (at 744rs)
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/89b2e93a-4635-4a8a-a155-2a6e345ac278.pdf
The below stood out for me.
2nd half of the financial year is the key period for whisky sales as the summer gets over and the company expects to increase sales exponentially in the later half of the financial year.
Global Acceptance of INDRI: First ever single malt brand in the world to cross sales of 1,00,000+ in FY 23-24 (in less than 24 months from launch), capturing ~35% of exports market share from India in its category with presence in 25 countries.
New distillery being setup at Raipur in Chhattisgarh with production capacity of 210 KLPD of ENA, Ethanol and Malt.
New distillery being setup at Portavadie in Scotland with production capacity of 1.3M litres of Malt per year.
Concall is the next logical steps⌠key questions that I have:-
- New product launches (overreliance on Indri makes me uncomfortable) in Vodka & Gin segments
- When do they expect Camikara to hit stores in a big way. If iâm not mistaken they couldnât recover reasonable number of bottles in the first production run.
- CSD canteen happened when - basically when can we see the numbers trickling in topline & bottomline
- Reason for ethanol capacity expansion? Why are they expanding in a cyclical, low margin business? I understand part sugarcane maybe needed in Camikara rum but that wonât be a huge requirement & doesnât need backward integration
- Their views on how Indian single malt market is growing, etc and how do they view the competition
- EBITDA margins from Indri & Camikara or gross margins - gives me an indication of the operating leverage in play
@luckbychance - The initial release of Camikara was from an experimental aging of cane juice rum. They found it good and worth launching as a brand. Aging of serious quantities of Camikara would have started only in 2023. So, donât expect Camikara (3 year old) to hit stores in a big way until late 2025 or early 2026. More expensive versions like Camikara 8 year old and 12 year old will take many more years to be available in significant quantities.
Re: Indri - My guess is that Indri is a blend of casks aged 3 years or more and younger casks. By now with production rate of 100,000 + cases per year the stock of older casks would be closer to depletion.
I expect a small slowdown in production rate.
Though I have invested in this share, my primary interest in this company is from the perspective of a
long term distillery industry enthusiast. I do not work in distillery industry but follow distilling industry news as a hobby.
From presentation we know that company has 45,000 barrels. I am trying to calculate how many cases of Indri Whiskey can be produced in these many barrels.
I am assuming the following -
- Barrel Capacity: 200 liters per barrel.
- Angelâs Share: Assume 30% total loss over the maturation period.
- Cask Strength: 60% ABV in the barrel.
- Bottling Strength: 40% ABV in the bottle.
1. Total Initial Volume of Whisky:
- Total Volume in Barrels:
Total Volume = 45,000 barrels Ă 200 liters per barrel = 9,000,000 liters
2. Adjust for Angelâs Share:
- Volume After Angelâs Share (assuming a 30% loss):
Volume After Angelâs Share = 9,000,000 Ă (1â0.30) = 6,300,000 liters
3. Adjust for Dilution from Cask Strength to Bottling Strength:
- Dilution Factor: The whisky is diluted from 60% ABV to 40% ABV, which means the volume increases by 50%.
Volume After Dilution = 6,300,000Ă1.5=9,450,000 liters
4. Convert Volume to Cases:
- Bottle Size: 0.75 liters (750 ml) per bottle.
- Bottles per Case: 12 bottles per case.
- Total Number of Bottles:
Total Bottles = 9,450,000 liters / 0.75 liters per bottle = 12,600,000 bottles
- Total Number of Cases:
Total Cases = 12,600,000 bottles / 12 bottles per case = 1,050,000 cases
Therefore even if they sell 1,00,000 cases of Indri whiskey, they have capacity for 10 years. I think this is the reason Malt is sold. They have access capacity.
Now further increase in capacity of Malt from present 12kL/day to 30kL/day in Sep-Oct will only increase the revenue by selling malt.
According to their FY23 annual report ( they have still not published annual report for FY24) the sale of the company is (cases) -
Golden wings whisky - 8,315
Whistler whiskey - 49,371
Kamet (single malt) - 3,912
Indri trini - 15,145
Camikara rum - 253
Royal highland - 432
Whistler was their highest selling whiskey in terms of number of cases. What happened to this whiskey, this quarter?
Also @anon do they take the ethanol sale in distillery division or sugar division?
I am not sure what happened to Kamet ⌠it has simply vanished from the product list. True,It was a jointly produced brand but it was an award winning brand and they were producing it as much as Indri till last year ,going by old annual reports .Maybe they switched supplies of aged malt to Indri ,when it got famous. Also 253 cases of CAMIKARA was produced in FY23 and they used to sell other cheap rums in huge quantities then and even cheap rums need some aging. Itâs also available in one or two online sites and apparently in Spencerâs in Kolkata. I will not be very surprised if Camikara 3 year version is very available by this Diwali âŚ
Disc. Invested and largest position still.
@venkatesh_G1 - The news you posted earlier is partially correct. Piccadily is included in MSCI India Domestic Smallcap Index. Link to MSCI site.
Age distribution of 45,000 casks is unknown. Surrinder Kumar started his work for Piccadily some time in 2019 - 2020. All 45,000 casks could not have been filled prior to 2021. Many casks may be 2 years or 1 year old.
The company has capacity of 12,000 litre of absolute malt based alcohol. According to presentation malt capacity was established in 2010.
Assuming the following -
- Volume of Absolute Alcohol: 12,000 liters (100% alcohol content).
- Target Alcohol Content in Barrels: 60% ABV (Alcohol by Volume).
- Standard Barrel Capacity: 200 liters.
With 12,000 liters of absolute malt-based alcohol, and adjusting for a 60% ABV content in the barrels, you could fill approximately 100 barrels of 200 liters each and 36,500 barrels per year.
If Surrinder Kumar joined in 2019 they could have could have filled all the casks by Mar-2020 and almost all of them would have matured by now. But you are right, we donât know when they were filled.
But my point is with 45,000 casks they have capacity to sell 1,00,000 cases for 10 years. They have sufficient capacity.
Perhaps it is why they said âexponentialâ increase during the winters? 
I expect Indri to cross 1L casks this year itself. With even barrels going up by another 55k, and newer products (Camikara & new Gin - they bought a copper pot for gin), one can expect premium alco bev revenues itself to cross 400/500 crs by FY26.
MSCI addition is great newsâŚit will help driving in liquidity and mainstreaming the stock
How do you know they are buying another 55K barrels? Also I could not find any information about copper pot for gin.
Please share the source.
Indri is matured in three type of casks Ex-bourbon, French Oak and Sherry. Estimated cost of these barrels is
Total Estimated Cost for One Set:
- Ex-Bourbon Barrel: $100 to $300
- French Oak Cask: $900 to $1,500
- Sherry Cask: $800 to $2,000
Total Estimated Cost: $1,800 to $3,800 for one set of all three types of barrels.
Taking cost of 1 set of barrels at $2800. The cost of 55k barrels work out at Rs. 431 crores. I donât think company has that kind of money. In preferential issue they have just raised 284 crores.
Response from the company -
I asked if the company had plans to demerge the sugar business -
I have also asked from when can we expect con-calls to happen, waiting for a response.
Listen from 36 min onwards. Madhu clearly says âWeâre looking to have ATLEAST a 100k barrels over the next 1.5 yearsâ. If you follow the discussion, youâll notice that a lot of those additional barrels is already bought by Piccadily.
15 min onwards - Stills for distilling Gin