Before I start, I’d like to say that I had invested in PI in 2011 but got out at a no-profit-no-loss trade. Re-researched and re-studied the entire story again this week. I currently have no positions. Having said that,
I am unsure where we are getting the notion of ‘Management has walked the talk so far’. On the contrary, I have always seen a messup between the walk and the talk. Points of evidence below -
a) In Dec 30, 2011, MD Mayank Singhal indicated that they would cross 1000 cr turnover and > 130 cr PAT by FY13. Didn’t materialize.
b) In Q2 FY12 concall, the management guided for a robust growth in CSM in that year. Funnily enough, there was hardly any growth in Q3FY13, the immediate next quarter.
c) The well known fact of the Jambusar plant getting delayed multiple times, inspite of management promises in multiple concalls.
d) Management had scaled down (I don’t remember the exact quarter-year here) revenue guidance for the year in one quarter, while they had guided for much higher growth in the immediate preceding quarter.
e) There was de-growth in CSM in Q1 FY13, inspite of the management assuring us that the business model of CSM is recurring and there is very little chance of no growth scenario.
f) Management continuing to guide on increase in in-licensed molecule increase vis-a-vis generics (in their agri business), but except for Nominee Gold, nothing much has fructified to that extent (the extent of ‘Osheen’ impact will be seen in Q2 last year (which was not seen) and now the hope is this year it will be seen).
g) Management complaining about heavy rain, intermittent rain, cloudy skies etc. as if that is a new phenomenon in the Indian market.
Don’t mis-read me. I am not saying PI is not a good business. And running a business obviously has its ups and downs and everything cannot be predicted to perfection. With CSM gaining increasing share in PI’s revenue numbers, it would definitely bring about some kind of stability than the monsoon-dependent agri business.
All I am saying is, management has not walked the talk on multiple occasions and there is no reason why we should believe when they say 1500 cr revenue and 10-10.5 net margins (and take it as gospel). In fact, I would argue that PI in all its years has hardly had 7-9% net margins. Just because CSM’s share is increasing (and it is increasing only marginally compared to FY13) and some tax benefits, should I take 10-10.5 as net margins?
A more realistic estimate is a 200 cr *4 CSM revenue + 600 cr agri revenue (given good monsoon) = 1400 cr and net margins of about 9% (max), which would give us a PAT of 126 cr. Predicting any upside beyond 130 cr would be an optimistic exercise, instead of conservative in my opinion. 130 cr would be about Rs.9.5/- EPS and * 15 PE = Rs.142.5/- for FY14 (we are almost priced around that level right now). All the Sony-PI upside and Phase II of Jambusar upside are positive black swans and should not be considered right now in my opinion. (For all you know, the Phase 2 Jambusar might start 1 year late given the mgmt’s track record). ‘Visibility with Flexibility’ is a statement I would discount heavily. That is typical management gobbledygood that I have seen too much in the consulting industry.
All said and done, this might be a great story in the making and may very well create long term wealth. Just that we need to temper whatever the management says (like Q2 FY12 ‘we are expecting robust growth - followed up with our costs included marketing which went up more than expected’).
Long rant done
Now, just one question for Donald/Mahesh:
Is there any way we can corroborate whatever the management says on the CSM order book? The reason I ask is, in almost every super valuepickr story, we have confirmed whatever the management said with dealers/distributors/customers etc. Even with something like Accelya Kale, investors have sought out employees, new deals on the BSE announcements etc. So, in this story, due to the confidential nature of stuff, are we handicapped by whatever the management says on the CSM order book and delivery?