PI Industries - Superior Business Model

sure Anil…

Tata Global Beverages – Consider it as a transformational branding play with strong management bandwidth (Discl.- Have bought it at very low level than CMP)

I believe in concentrated portfolio structure (not advisable for novice) and so have these two companies viz., PI Ind. and Tata Global as majority holdings at present…Have divested out of some major holdings in last few months as believed valuations had reached beyond my conviction levels…

Have small holdings in many small and mid-cap cos. for tracking purpose…

Rgds.

understanding/

Thanks Vimal

Thanks mahesh that cleared out a lot about the price movements.

excellent observation.

would request you to post regularly.

hi mahesh,

after today’s price correction, it is starting to seem interesting. i have taken a started position today to track and would add as i develop conviction.

yes hemant…the mid-day correction that PI witnessed might be a precursor to lower than expected results later today…was able to add only a little at 580-585 as the price shot up too fast post 3 pm…looking forward to adding more and divert my cash in case tomorrow provides an opportunity below 600…

Rgds.

results out and have surpassed mahesh’s projections by a wide margin.

sales 282 cr and net profit at 24 crores. q3 eps at 9.5

9M eps at 29.

Seem to be quite good in comparision to 9M fy 12 if one excludes the extraordinaries in 9M fy 12.

would be interesting to hear mahesh’s views.

Just an intrusion before Mahesh ji comes in…

Total Income up 48.6% to 282.58 Cr from 190.14 Cr.
EBIDTA up 51.6% to 45.29 Cr from 29.87 Cr.
Net Profit More than DOUBLED to 23.96 Cr from 11.44 Cr.

EBIDTA margin is 16% v/s 14.6% (SQ-12) and 15.7% (DQ-11)
NET Profit margin is 8.5% v/s 8.7% (SQ-12) and 6% (DQ-11)

Total Raw material costs as a %ge to Income is 58.4% v/s 60.3% (SQ-12) and 53.7% (DQ-11)
Employee costs to Income is 7.1% v/s 7.7% (SQ-12) and 9.1% (DQ-11)
Other expenses to Income is 18.5% v/s 17.4% (SQ-12) and 21.5% (DQ-11)

Financial costs to EBIT is 17.6% v/s 12.8% (SQ-12) and 18.3% (DQ-11)
Tax Rate 33.4% v/s 30.1% (SQ-12) and 28.3% (DQ-11)

Forex Gain of 69 lacs v/s Loss of 6.49 Cr helped in doubling of Net profits.

9M/Fy-13 v/s 9M/Fy-12:
Total Income up 27.8% to 820.16 Cr from 641.82 Cr (Fy/11-12: 877.09 Cr)
EBIDTA up 27.7% to 138.26 Cr from 108.24 Cr (Fy/11-12: 145.54 Cr)
Profit b/f Exceptional up 37.5% to 106.81 Cr from 77.7 Cr (Fy/11-12: 109.04 Cr)
Net Profit Down 7% to 73.25 Cr from 78.76 Cr (Fy/11-12: 100.54 Cr)

Removing exceptional item of 30.34 Cr from 9M-Fy-12,
Adjusted Net profit up 29.3% to 73.25 Cr from 56.64 Cr.

On 12/02/2013, stock on BSE Closed at Rs. 610/-

Q3FY13 Results Announced…

Prima facie seems Exceptional

Revenue grew YoY by 48 % to touch 282.58 cr. beating even the most optimistic estimate of 262 cr. by quite a wide margin…

EBITDA margins are stable at 16.02 % (a YoY increase of 32 basis points) inspite of all the adversities faced by domestic agri-input segment which has affected all the segment companies including Rallis…EBITDA margins are inline with our estimate…

Finance costs have increased 51 % YoY while Currency Loss of 6.49 cr. is absent in this qrtr. which signifies good forex management by the company…

Split in FV. announced from 5 to 1 which will enhance liquidity in the counter…this move seems in best interest of the minority shareholders and its consistent with management’s display of extreme concern towards enhancing minority shareholders wealth on a continuous basis…

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Prima facie View :

This results exclude any contribution from new Jambusar facility as commercial production started in Jan’2013…Hence, for CSM segment, Q4FY13 should be exceptional…In Q4FY12, CSM segment (old facility) contributed 136 cr…

Although detailed press release and management commentry in the concall is awaited to check separate contribution of agri-input and csm segments…but, in absence of that, the revenue of 282 cr. is exceptional by any standards considering the fact that contribution from Jambusar facility is 0 in the qrtr…As far as agri-input segment is concerned, In Q3FY13, peer cos. Rallis grew by just 4.5 % and Insecticides grew by just 13 %, Dhanuka’s results are awaited…PI’s Q3FY12 agri-input revenues stood at 102 cr…hence, by what % PI has been able to grow its agri-input revenues this qrtr. will be interesting to watch…Evenif we assume best 20 % growth for PI in agri-input segment, then also agri-input segment revenues for the qrtr. can’t be beyond 122 cr…which means CSM segment w/o any contribution from new facility has been able to turn out a revenue of 160 cr. (v/s 88 cr. of Q3FY12) which is great…For CSM segment, Q4 has been traditionally the best qrtr. and not Q3…In contrast, if agri-input segment has turned out more than 122 cr. revenue this qrtr. then it will be surprising as Q3 has been muted for entire industry and to turn out such an exceptional performance in a lean period will speak highly of the management credentials…

Q4FY13 in all probability will report revenues of more than 300 cr. and a PAT of more than 27 cr…which means on full FY13 basis on an expanded equity capital of 13.54 cr.(because of QIP), PI should report EPS of more than Rs. 37.01…Since second phase of Jambusar facility is already planned and should commence from 2HFY14, PI’s revenue and earnings visibility has considerably increased which should trigger the rerating process to begin sooner rather than later…Just on the reported 9MFY13 results, PI should start trading in the range of 690-745 with positive triggers helping it to reach our review rate of 865 …Today, there is dearth of quality cos. growing at such brisk pace and PI has demonstrated again and again since last many years that its much better than its peers and is following corporate governance standards which are at par with best governed cos. of India…Its only a matter of time that PI starts commanding higher multiples on the bourses…

Detailed press release and concall commentry thereafter will be interesting to watch…

Feel free to get back to me in case of any query.

Rgds.

hi mahesh,

any reasons why debt may have risen so sharply this quarter?

Sir should we neglect the quarter to quarter revenue growth whicj seems on the negative side?

Exceptional

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Prima facie View :

agri-input segment

Guys,

Time to bring back objectivity into discussions. This is for the sake of newbies & learners, and even experienced folks at ValuePickr. You need to develop some perspectives while deciding what to do when you see free-flowing superlatives…beware of some patterns…with some folks…so that you can take objective decisions…and learn to stay a bit aloof…when you see one-side analysis.

The good things about Mahesh is he is the first one to update on developments, and diligently tries to answer the questions, whatever members put up. There is no one in ValuePickr who can match up with his energy levels. This is a great quality! No doubt about that.

The bad things about Mahesh is, his style is blatantly one-sided. We value his contribution at ValuePickr, but he refuses to adapt his style to what Admin/Moderators have advised him to …for the sake of balance in discussions. Once he starts writing at length, you will see most other seniors switch off. Because to bring back objectivity into discussions, they have to write atleast half or 1/3rd as much as Mahesh,there is just too much of one sided-deluge. Like Charlie Munger says, " A man with the Hammer…sees only the nail".

Besides that I object to certain patterns that we notice, from a few stocks where he participates, let me elaborate.

a) he always has to use high flying superlatives. he can’t just stick to the facts without bringing hype in

b) future projections are always built-in to add more masala to the grist

c) he ignores raising concerns properly (even when they are visible) and analysing them in-depth - does not devote even 10% of the energy/space that he devotes to building the hype - the over 50% rise in finance costs is not a concern, e.g.

d) While building the hype - the business is always long-term - but he goes form hype-very long term-exceptional business- to total exit from the business within a year - This same PI industries thread- go back and see how from a CORE HOLDING of his portfolio he abruptly mentions a TOTAL EXIT. Refuses to ascribe any reason apart from saying fundamentals are the same, I just have a gut feel. A few months go, and the gut feel becomes strong again, and the hype is back, guys CORE PORTFOLIO holding…no stock like PI…man.

I value his dedication, but personally am at my wits end how to handle this aspect of his.

e) Now for the patterns I was talking about - see this same hype, superlatives flowing --in the Relaxo thread…must have in long term core portfolio…what a stock …there was no mention of the risks at all …forcing Active moderation in that thread from Admin…and now no WONDER within a few months …it is back to total exit …this time citing the many many concerns…pray, where was this objectivity gone right at the start of hyperbole building up…surely as Admin had pointed out this was a low-quality business…the RM price volatility, direct linkage to operating margins, absence of any pricing power…were all visible right from the start…never should have been hyped up…newcomers, innocent newebies, even experienced folks we know have got up in this kind of one-sided hyperbole and lost/can lose serious money…Riddhi Siddhi Gluco Biols is another such serious misadventure!!

These are not the only threads. Lest this look like a personal attack, which this is certainly not, I will refrain from mentioning the other threads where this same operation looks to be in place. We want him to continue adding value…by objective, balanced analysis.

Mahesh has to put in place confidence building measures, as requested by Moderators. He has to learn to stick to facts. He has to be seen to devote 30-50% energy analysing the negatives/concerns too. He has to cut the hyperbole to the minimum.There is no one in ValuePickr who has met him personally (not for not trying by the way), isn’t that a bit strange giving the kind of natural affinity folks have for seniors here.

Hi TCX,

Thanks for your valuable inputs....I take it with utmost respect but strongly object to the use of word 'pattern'......This is a grave insult to my persona and the pain I take to answer each and every query in the best possible manner as also the effort I put to translate my analysis into words so that you and other guys can raise concerns and loopholes in it.......but concerns and loopholes have to be in research-work and not on anybody's character.....you can object to one's style but can't put allegation on one's intentions.....

Positive thing about your inputs is that it has made me retrospect about the works I have published in this forum and the status of such works right now.....I completely dislike to boast or tell anyone that these are my past works and see the result of it today...but, the apt answer to your use of word 'pattern' can be best answered by this retrospection only and nothing else......I don't know since how many years you have been in this equity markets but my more than a decade's observation of equity markets has taught me one thing that as you call it a 'pattern', then the stocks being discussed have to get distorted out of shape in the medium to long run as no pattern can sustain price behaviour for long.....I have been in this forum since mid-2010 and I present below each and every work of mine I have published so far here i.e. each and every stock I had initiated or remotely expressed my positive view on so far in this forum and also include in it the CMP of that respective work and absolute gain/loss as on date after excluding income received from dividends.......


Company Name

Date of Initiating Research

Price at which Initiated

Dividend Received till Today

Initiating Price â Dividend = Current Holding Price

Current Market Price

Abosolute

(+) Gain / (-) Loss as at 13th February 2013

Percentage %

(+) Gain / (-) Loss as at 13th February 2013









Riddhi Siddhi

August-2010

Rs. 280

Rs. 37.5

280 â 37.5 = Rs. 242.5

Rs. 295

+ Rs. 52.5

+ 21.64 %









Marathwada Refractories

December-2010

Rs. 387

0

387 â 0 = Rs. 387

Rs. 235

(-) Rs. 152

(-) 39.27 %









Jenburkt Pharma

January-2011

Rs. 81.25

Rs. 7

81.25 â 7 = Rs. 74.25

Rs. 72

(-) Rs. 2.25

(-) 3.03 %









Sandesh Ltd.

January-2011

Rs. 295

Rs. 7.5

295 â 7.5 = Rs. 287.5

Rs. 318

+ Rs. 30.5

+ 10.60 %









PI Industries

March-2011

Rs. 298

Rs. 9

298 â 9 = Rs. 289

Rs. 640

+ 351

+ 121.45 %









AVT Natural

May-2011

Rs.14.5

Rs. 2.25

14.5 â 2.25 = Rs. 12.25

Rs. 32

+ 19.75

+ 161.22 %









Solar Industries

August-2011

Rs. 745

Rs. 15

745 â 15 = Rs. 730

Rs. 1049

+ Rs. 319

+ 43.69 %









Jubilant Industries

September-2011

Rs. 183

0

183 â 0 = Rs. 183

Rs. 132

(-) Rs. 51

(-) 27.86 %









LG Balakrishnan

March-2012

Rs. 301

Rs. 16.5

301 â 16.5 = Rs. 284.5

Rs. 233

(-) Rs. 51.5

(-) 18.10 %









Relaxo Footwears

June-2012

Rs. 517

Rs. 1.5

517 â 1.5 = Rs. 515.5

Rs. 690

+ Rs. 174.5

+ 33.85 %









Hikal

October-2012

Rs. 426

0

426 â 0 = Rs. 426

Rs. 398

(-) Rs. 28

(-) 6.57 %


Few points to note from above :

(1) Marathwada Refractories was not a detailed work but just a thread started as Special Situation wherein Mr. Mantri was taking over the company and in the respective thread clearly it was mentioned that takeover candidates are extremely risky as you need to bet on future moves of the new management....Still this stock is mentioned in the table to be most transparent in my reply....


(2) In Riddhi Siddhi there was management issue wherein management disposed of its business by sacrificing minority shareholders' interest.....Still this company is above the recommended rate which signifies that its not out of business but only out of focus.....

(3) In Jubilant Industries there was again management issue wherein inspite of the strong promoters the management was not able to raise funds intime and lost its way post merger of retail business.....Again this company is out of focus and not out of business....

(4) Hikal was recommended quite recently and its order delivery is to commence from FY14 and that will be key monitorable....here again the management is related to Baba Kalyani group and it has adopted great transparency so far which is evident if you read ARs.....This company is victim of its product profile and gestation of its business segments....If you closely read the thread of Hikal, when the rate appreciated sharply post my initiation, I bluntly mentioned the sentence "I maintain my earlier view that -reasonable rate for Hikal is below 425 and best rate to Buy is below 400 in 350-400 range".....Even after my stating this, rate remained up for quite a while before correcting recently.....

(5) LGB is facing severe problems in its operational segment and its a victim of that otherwise its market-leadership position in its operational segment is well documented for all to see on ground.....Hence, This company is victim of macro slowdown than anything else....

(6) All other companies including Jenburkt, Sandesh, PI, AVT, Solar and Relaxo have good managements and have good positioning in their operational segments which can't be challenged by anyone including you.....

To sum-up.....from the table I have produced above, evenif I assume that a newbie or novice has purchased all the shares without doing his homework (which I strongly refute as forums are meant for discussions and sharing of our analysis and works and not for following blindly anyone), then also he/she seems to be not in bad shape.....This is contrary to your use of word 'pattern' as in such a scenario all the companies from starting to beginning should be out of business as of now and be non-existent....Three years is a long time TCX that much I hope you will agree......

Now, regarding personally meeting me....have I refused anytime the meeting to anyone except once in 2011 when Donald was visiting mumbai immediately after our holy festival 'Paryushan' and therefore I was tied-up....If someone belongs to Jain community in this forum then he must be aware of the fact that immediately after Paryushan how many places you need to go for attending functions and all.....In 2012 when Donald told that he is visiting mumbai I told him that we will meet up but he suffered some problem in his leg and therefore meeting was not able to take place....so is it my fault.....look TCX, frankly, speaking, I am not that kind of guy who will take the initiative to meet up but if anyone wishes to I never refuse.....I can be termed as a guy who is 'reserved' but not an unreachable guy....Donald or other seniors who want to approach me can always do so as they have my mobile and I have always helped them in the best way I can which I am sure they will agree.....

To conclude, I again state that I don't want to create a Relaxo like controversy here and therefore for the first and last time I have provided above all the companies I had even remotely expressed my positive view on in this forum...I can't do more than this....

A Discussion Forum is the one where positive and negative views collide and its not necessary that both the views should come in a pronounced form from one side only....

If you can't appreciate never allege unless you have concrete proof of your allegations......It hurts...really deeply hurts......

Today morning when I resumed my desk I thought that I will put my whole energy today to research PI deeply post its results but seeing your post the same energy I had to divert to make this table and reply to you......

This is the last time I have replied to such baseless allegations and henceforth will only reply to company-specific queries as I am still recovering from heath-issue which kept me out since mid-december till end-Jan.....

I request all members including TCX not to reply to this post or for that matter not post anything which is not related to the company here....Lets move on and discuss PI in a proper way.

Hope sanity prevails.

Rgds.

I feel one should be able to take things objectively ,as every one has his/her own style & you can take things as you like from it.Just because Mahesh is writing in length,you don’t have to reply by writing 1/2 or 1/3rd of it, if you can point out the negatives in shorter form.Further in the market you don’t have to marry the stock & if you feel at times, you have to book profit/loss.There are no free lunch here.If so called innocent people/new comers, loose money by blindly following some one,without putting any efforts,no one else should be blamed except self.I feel that Mahesh should focus on his strengths,(for that matter every one over here should) & let the readers take there call.

Q3 FYâ13 Revenues show robust growth of 49% at Rs.2,826 million

Q3 FYâ13 Net Profit doubles to Rs.239.6 million

Gurgaon, February 12, 2013: PI Industries Limited (PI), a leading Indian Agri-Input and Custom Synthesis company announced its financial results for the third quarter and nine-months ended December 31, 2012.

Financial Highlights for the nine-months ended 31st December, 2012

Net Revenue

Net Revenue stood at Rs. 8,201.6 million, growing 28% YoY on account of a ~55% improvement in custom synthesis exports

EBITDA

EBITDA showed healthy growth of 28% to Rs.1,431 million YoY. EBITDA margins stood strong at 17.5% on account of improved product mix and operating leveraging benefits.

Pre-tax Earnings

Profit Before Tax stood at Rs.1,068 million. It includes an exchange fluctuation loss of Rs. 39.6 million as compared to a loss last year of Rs. 62.2 million.

Post-tax Earnings

Net Profit came in at Rs.732.5 million, up 34% from last yearâs profits (after excluding the exceptional profit from the sale of Polymer Compounding business) resulting in a Basic EPS of Rs.29.15 per share.

Financial Highlights for the quarter ended 31st December, 2012

Net Revenue

Net Revenue improved 49% at Rs.2,825.9 million mainly on account of significant growth contribution of custom synthesis of ~100% YoY from last year.

EBITDA

EBITDA stood at Rs. 474 million, up 51% YoY. The margins were at 16.8% backed by judicious

portfolio of products in the domestic business and robust scale-up in exports.

Pre-tax Earnings

Profit Before Tax was at Rs. 359.6 million. It includes an exchange fluctuation gain of Rs. 6.9 million

from a loss last year of Rs. 64.9 million.

Post-tax Earnings

Net Profit came in at Rs.239.6 million thereby giving a Basic EPS of Rs.9.54 per share.

Commenting on the performance Mr. Mayank Singhal, Managing Director & CEO, PI Industries

Ltd., said;

âThe upward trend in the quarterly performance of PI is now well-defined. The strong performance

of the exports business was on expected lines, we also have visibility of the volumes ramp-up for the

existing line-up. As the commercialisation of these molecules picks-up, PI will stand to be an obvious

beneficiary as most of these products are patented and early stages of their life cycle. The roadmap

for growth is even more exciting given the capacity augmentation by way of the Jambusar facility

and planned launch of new products in coming quarters.

While the domestic season has been challenging this year so far due to adverse agro-climatic

conditions in major agriculture areas in India, however given the robust pipeline of products and

overall strength/potential of the Indian agri- input industry, we remain very positive about growth

potential of this market segment for us.â

Corporate Developments

PI concluded QIP process, raises Rs.117.33 crores at Rs.609.60 per share

The Companyâs QIP issue saw participation by some highly reputed investors in India and abroad.

Post issue, the promoters holding will be 58.85% as against 63.35% on December 31, 2012.

Jambusar facility commissioned

PI commissioned its dedicated facility for custom synthesis exports at the Jambusar SEZ. A

significant portion of the volumes growth going forward will be delivered from this new plant,

which got commissioned in January 2013.

Share Split

Subject to the approval of the share holders, the Board has recommended split in the stock face value of equity shares from Rs.5/- each to Rs.1/- each.

Outlook

A rising share of in-licensed products will trigger enhancement of the domestic business. Distinctive positioning of existing and newly introduced molecules to drive continued volume upside. The optimistic outlook will be determined by:

ï Leadership approach to building brands around innovative products which are introduced with specific requirements of the market in mind; new launches planned for next fiscal year

ï Higher acreages in Rabi especially in wheat, where the increase is seen to be above 5% of average levels

Growth in custom synthesis exports will be led by increase in the size of the already commercialized molecules. Operating leverage will drive the expansion in margins given the apparent visibility for 18-24 months. The outlook for the ensuing months will be guided by:

ï Novel products slated for launch which will ramp-up in line with higher global registrations.

ï Attractive basket of products in various stages of development, to further add to PIâs growth in the coming years.

ï Substantial upside from the Jambusar facility, as delivery of orders on hand accelerates. PI drawing roadmap for the expansion of capacity.

Press Release Out :

As expected, CSM segment has grown by close to 100 % in Q3FY13 without any contribution from Jambusar facility…Exact figure will be interesting to watch as anything above 160 cr. will be great…whether this is sustainable in Q4FY13, which I feel it should be, that will be interesting to hear from the management in the concall…Roadmap for second phase of Jambusar facility being drawn immediately post commencing of first phase speaks highly of the order-flow…Agri-Input segment might have been muted but I expect Dinotefuran sales to really pick-up from Kharif’2013 and believe Dinotefuran has the potential to be 100 cr. product by FY16 as cross-selling opportunity for Pi is huge and Pi is also supplying to Indofil, the only other co. which can sell this product in India…

Will update post concall…

Feel free to get back to me in case of any query.

Rgds.

Thanks Mahesh for being objective about this. Its a good trait to have. I would request you to do just 1 more thing:

a) In all the cases where there have been serious downsides - please go back and see how much time/quality you have devoted to raising/discussing the downsides - while initiating and building the hype over the stock

b) and how many times (these risks) have been mentioned/discussed by you in post-mortem only - after serious downsides start taking place

c) how many times you have voluntarily disclosed your exiting these stocks. in time. before downsides have struck

Newbies don’t get in early into a stock idea like you Mahesh. We all know they usually they get carried away by the hype build-up. So most of the time they are late entrants into any stock idea. And they cant obviously get out in time. That is the REAL DANGER. So the track record you show here may be yours, but certainly not those of the newbies who have followed you blindly, worshipped you even.

As a senior contributing member of the forum, you cannot deny that RESPONSIBILITY. You have to avoid hyperbole. period. Stick to facts. don’t bring in rosy projections. If you do then you must also devote equal time to extensively discuss RISKS

a measure of objectivity here again

1). Just check and provide how many members participate actively in your stock idea discussions, besides raising queries. Why are these always a one-sided hammering-down by one man. rest just ask questions. Why do we not see senior folks like Hitesh, Ayush, Abhishek, Donald, and many more of the new senior members participating wholeheartedly/adding value in your stock ideas. They seem to be completely switched off in your valuable ideas.

Wake up! This is because of your hyperbole. Stop the hyperbole and you will allow space for balanced discussions. You have a RESPONSIBILITY for healthy discussions, not one-sided monologues.

does anyone know when is the q3 concall scheduled.

Here is an interesting article on the company in Outlook Business Magazine.

http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?283412

may be within this week…

an interesting observation rgdg. the sector as a whole…this agchem cos. are getting aggressive in IR initiatives which is evident from Insecticides starting to host concalls since last two qrtrly. results…Dhanuka, after regularly hosting concalls post results (actually hosted by Emkay) since last many qrtrs., now appointing a full-fledged IR agency and hosting first ever analyst meet tomorrow in mumbai…and our own PI, as we all know, regularly hosting concalls since last many qrtrs…All these cos. are tightly held by promoter group and may be they all are looking to invite PE players into them as the sector as a whole is transforming from generic dumping ground to a more focussed and mature innovative products marketplace and to keep pace with this transformation, they require funding and a good brand image amongst MNC innovators, both of which is possible in case of a good PE player’s entry…

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**

Rgds.

Maheshji,

Do you foresee a correction in price to add PI ? Am looking at adding PI to my long term portfolio.

Regards