I have been busy doing other things since I am quite happy with my pf - so mostly spending time with family, travel, running and almost full-time exploring music - ear training, playing blues (clapton, bb king style) and learning music theory (It has also increased the depth of my music listening experience!). Reading and reviewing has taken a backseat unfortunately and I hope to get back into the habit.
@satya_yenumula I don’t hold Orchid. I sold few quarters back. I feel it will consolidate for a few quarters or make fresh lows but its probably worth a look in the future when 7-ACA capex nears completion (easily 2 yrs out). The base business margin pressure has to stabilise and some sort of visibility has to be there in enmeta with Allecra going insolvent. Cefiderocol seems to be couple of years away (and doesn’t have a good reputation either, so growth might be limited). So overall I see lot of headwinds from here for another 4-6 quarters.
@sushant1 - I continue to hold Ceinsys, Bluejet and Axiscades and smaller positions in Holmarc and few financials (Ujjivan, AU, CSL, Capital SFB, Suryoday, Repco etc. which honestly don’t excite me one bit so I prefer not to talk about these. They were bought at good valuation but I would switch out of financials if I get some better bets).
Ceinsys continues to consolidate around 1400-1500 levels. It is continuing to build a good base to break out of, which hopefully will happen after Q1/Q2 results. It remains a mystery to me why a valley guy who ran a 1000 Cr+ PnL (Surej KP of Intelliswift) would join here as CEO unless he sees good prospects in the acquisitions. I am hopeful that the next leg of growth would have stronger private business contribution. As of now though its in a phase where most will throw the towel in boredom (it happened last year around 400-500 levels as well).
BlueJet has delivered the numbers but I am certain most people who bought it initially in optimism found various reasons to sell it. It is surprising we spend so much time on discovering and sharing ideas but very little on working on self to allow for holding onto ideas with great risk:reward - especially becoming a slave to the price and swaying with it. If you can’t muster the courage to brave it ignoring the noise, its not possible to make alpha.
Axiscades has been a wonderful surprise, doubling in 6 months since I bought it (mid-late December). It has all the makings of Wockhardt/Ceinsys/Shaily from last year. There are so many things in the works here with the DAC (Devanahalli Atmanirbhar Cluster) capex. I am also hopeful of good offset business from Marine Rafale. The defence production orders from LCA Tejas Mk1a, Su-30 upgrades, Netra AEW&CS, LLTRs, counter-drones should fire full steam in the next 2 yrs as well. If they manage to palm off the heavy engineering, automotive, energy businesses at good valuations, it could really help in funding DAC capex. The long term guidance here is so outlandish that even if they achieve 50% of guidance, we would still make great returns.
I don’t have any holdings in Neuland though I was tempted. I am concerned with what happened to Austedo. I am concerned with the company’s ability to scale in general. I am also concerned that BMS is struggling with Cobenfy (No uptake of Xanomeline after Jan in exports data). We should also see how they manage to scale BA. Current valuations are way too rich due to rich narratives from the past here so we might be overpaying for BA in which they haven’t showed expertise to scale like BlueJet has. It might be interesting around 6-8k levels. It might not get there, but that’s ok.
Wockhardt I feel is slipping on timelines. It was to have launched 5222 in India by mid this year and file NDA with FDA as well by this time. I see those timelines now being moved by a few months for FDA filing and a whole year for India launch. (thus numbers may not come for 5222 before '27 which is 1-1.5 yrs away) I feel it will get approved but valuation upside could perhaps be capped at around ~40-50k Cr at most and execution risk remains high at current valuations. I really hope they get the drug to market quickly though as it is a genuine lifesaver.
Disc: Invested in BlueJet, Ceinsys, Axiscades so could be very positively biased. Sold Wockhardt between Dec-Mar. No positions in Neuland.