@maheshkumar- Didn’t you just add more last week? Can you share your rationale at exiting the stock ?
As it was quick 2 x for me
Now I am biased with my buying price of 110
Although i may miss the big rally
And it was my first 2x stock so wanted to enjoy that moment 
That moment was priceless and I was feeling like a PRO
2 Likes
Fair enough. It was a good move then, based on returns.
Would like to understand your thought process that moment of time.
- Did you play a pure-play bet assuming it will rebound technically for short term 5, 10, 20 % gain? In that case what made you hold on till 2X
- Did you invest thinking arrest news is fake?
- Did you do a major allocation at 110 or just a very minor % which hardly matter even if it fails?
- What was your backup plan if it fell further?
I know my query sounds more trading and less investing. But I too have been closely following PCJ stories and sold out at loss around 320. But did not had guts to re-enter at 100.
1,2and 3)
I bought 5% of PF on a fundamental basis ,hoping books are not too much cooked /manipulated
But when it became 2x ,price bias kicked in
And I thought of booking the profit
4)there was no back up plan initially
Also It’s better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company’s plans are working out.
Rs 424cr Buyback at Rs. 350. Not bad. Not sure how it will trade tomorrow.
1 Like
42% eligible … 3% buy back offer … so assuming 100% tendered then about 6-7 shares will be bought back. If less than 100% tendered then proportionately the number of shares accepted for buy back could increase …
My sense is that many investors who have bought at higher levels above 350 will be relieved to get at least some part of the investment back at 350/-
The total size of the buy back is 424 crores via tender … so not a very big deal … but more a support for current market price … In the longer run, the EPS will be impacted favourably as number of shares reduce.
And promoters not participating in the buy back is again a good gesture. Institutions may still be the big gainer unless the company comes with some special scheme for small and retail investors.
As per my calculations, buyback ratio acceptance ratio shall be around 45% for retail investors and around 6% for other categories, provided promoters do not participate.
I am expecting an increase in number of small shareholders by around 2 times against given in the 2017 annual reports.
Number of shares with retail/small shareholders as per AR is around 13.5 lacs, in my calculation I have assumed a number of 40 lacs. I am also assuming 100% tender, as difference between current price and buyback price is very high.
Buyback Value = 424 cr
Reserved for small share holder = 15%
No. of shares to be cancelled for small shareholder = 424*.15/350 = 18.17 lacs.
Acceptance Ratio = 18.17/40 = 45% approx.
The acceptance ratio can change ofcourse, if more people try to participate via retail route.
Disc: Not Invested and not planning to invest.
It is mandatory to allocate 15% of the buyback amount to retail shareholders as per latest SEBI regulations. Retail investors are those who hold shares less than Rs 2,00,000 as on record date i.e. quantity held x closing price (higher of nse/bse) < 2 lacs.
thank you @Premkumar_SJ & @suraj_jethwani for correcting me.
2 Likes
Of course price is very good but Size of buyback is very small. my opinion company have provided this for damage control only.
1 Like
Thank you. Noted for future reference. Had observed this in Infosys buy-back as well.
Just checking my understanding … the acceptance ratio will be calculated separately for the small investors (2 lakh rupees cut-off) and other investors (above 2 lakh rupees cut-off) … Is this right ?
In the retail category, even if you assume that 5% share capital( i.e. 50% of the shareholders, out of 10% stake held by non-institutions) is tendered for buyback and even 30% size comes to them (around 3.6 mn shares), even then the acceptance ratio wouldn’t be more than 20%.
SJ
It is mandatory to allocate 20% of the buyback amount to retail shareholders as per latest SEBI regulations.
Any pointers explaining these recent rules . Long standing rule is 15% of the buyback is allocated for retail shareholders .
Varun, I too Agree with Prem here. it should be 15%… See Link Below:
Kindly see the forum guidelines update from the Admin. These sort of comments add little value to the forum.
6 Likes
Point taken ,will be Cautious with the content
2 Likes
I don’t think the share buyback offer increases the confidence in management. There still seem to be undisclosed risks or issues for the future of the company.
Interest costs also seem to be key here:
The company surprisingly has paid an interest of Rs 282 crore for FY17 for a loan outstanding of Rs 802 crore as of March 2017.
Still not able to figure out from where this negativity came in this counter. Vakrangee ?? promoters gift ?? … before all these events every thing was smooth…results good … growth excellent…gave bonus recently. Now what ?? Senior border please throw some light on this. As retailers are still confused. Those who have purchased on higher price and also those who want to average their higher buying. Few of boarders believes that unlike vakrangee , Pcj is not manipulating books of accounts. Then here unable to find any reason for such big movement. Now when board decided for BUYBACK @350. . even now few thinks this is not going to help. Even share price didn’t take any buyback effect. Too much volatility in PCJ and also in investors BRAIN.
2 Likes
Sameer - In my limited understanding, there have been red flags in PCJ all along. Till the stock rises, things are all fine and ignored, but once market gets a whiff of some wrongdoings, such stocks do not recover. Look at Vakrangee, Treehouse. So many examples! There is no way any good stock could loose 75% of its market cap this quickly just on rumors. Exceptions are always there but why would you like to take a chance? This is as good as gambling on horses or playing in casino!
Buyback might happen or not, who knows; but think what would be the acceptance ratio. 25% even if we assume retail quota of 15% and not everyone submitting their shares? So what happens to the rest of the shares that are not accepted.
Another possibility is that this buyback might be an eyewash in order to give ‘easy’ exit to some until the time actual buyback materializes. Many are going to exit through open market.
I do not understand the urge to gamble? Human desire to make quick money leads to disasters. Evaluate downside before making any investment. Just looking at upside without considering what is at risk will kick one out of the market soon.
Just give a thought of the price action in last 2 months here in this stock. Is this normal?
Also, if one checks number of individual shareholders holding below 2 lac in Dec and March
Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs for December 17
29578 holders 4836182 48,36,182 1.23%
Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs for March 18
67236 holders 9125066 91,25,066 2.31%
My hunch is this retail holding percentage will increase much more in June shareholding report.
NO CAPITAL, NO CAPITAL MARKET!
8 Likes
I will share a major concern here.It is very difficult to believe now that vakrangee’s books are not cooked.Given the shady nature of the jewellery biz with frauds like gitanjali gems,winsome diamonds,when vakrangee buys stake in this company(out of all the possible stocks in the market),things become suspicious.
Again i maybe totally wrong and pc may be a good company after all.However these red flags have to be answered for the faith to be restored in the company.
2 Likes