The above shows the timeline of commercialisation of capex, mostly by sept2021. Also around 65 cr , for next fiscal years for downstream products. Paushak has sustained margins even though oil has been selling high. It will be interesting to note, year end results.
One of the main concerns is their dependence on Industrial Oxygen supplies for the operations. I believe their plant is shut since end of April for the same reason. Not sure if there is any plans to have backward integration for industrial oxygen?
Your Company also received approval from the Government of India for expanding Phosgene capacity from 4800 MT/Year to 14400 MT/Year after all necessary legal compliances and approvals. Your Company had planned a capex programme of ₹120 Cr. to expand and accelerate the growth with identified opportunities. You would be pleased to know that your Company is the midst of project implementation for enhancing Phosgene Capacity and also one large derivatives plant
as downstream with associated infrastructure of utilities, etc. Your Company has also hired the services of one of the globally renowned design consultants to ensure that these plants are as per global standards of engineering, design & safety practices and would be state of the art facilities with full automation while benchmarking with global standards.
There are significant improvements happening in Paushak’s outlook and their aspirations.
Capex is 2 times their current size. Management did not show inclination to invest till last so many years. Infact their topline was stable for the last 5 years - ~140 cr. Now this capex which triples their gross block is getting commissioned
Company is looking to enter into some CMO opportunities/business also. They have been talking with some global companies for these opportunities and hopefully they may get some success. The below is the excerpt from their 2021AR. - “With change in geopolitical situation, the demand from domestic as well as global customers will also open new avenues for us. Paushak will continue to invest & expand its capabilities & capacities to accelerate the growth of business in domestic as well international market.”
Not only this expansion but company is also suggesting that they will want to grow in future also through expansion - things which they did not did earlier.
Post commissioning of the capex, they should be able to utilize the expanded capacity in 2 years (My guess, no inputs from Mgmt) which means that there revenues will triple from 140 cr to ~400 cr in 2-3 years with net profit of ~120 Cr (benefit of operating leverage should accrue).
The company after the recent correction was trading at ~2500 Cr marketcap which to me was attractive.
(Few important points from Annual report 2022 and credit rating @july 2022)
1 …Backward integration
=Operating profitability remained strong at 36%, owing to a high degree of backward integration in the form of phosgene gas manufacturing capacity, even as the rest of the industry reeled from increasing input prices
=Backward integration of operations has led to robust operating margin (36% in fiscal 2022 and 35.8% in fiscal 2021). Return on capital employed was healthy at 15.7% in fiscal 2022. While most of the specialty chemicals industry depends heavily on imports for their raw material supplies, the company has a low import bill.
=The full year benefit of enhanced capacity amidst steady product prices should lead to about 30% revenue growth in fiscal 2023, while operating profitability is expected to sustain at about 30% over the medium term.
3…The company is one of the few players licenced to manufacture phosgene gas, which is highly restricted by the government.
A…Phosgene Capacity expansion
=We have completed our first round of capex programme & tripled our Phosgene Capacity while commissioning a new Phosgene plant of 14400 MT/Year (1200mt/month)
=Along with this, we have also commissioned a new
Phosgene Derivatives/ multi-purpose plant with supporting utilities, etc. This entire new set up is highly automated andmatches global standards of plant design, safety and operational efficiency while reducing manpower requirements substantially.
=The new plants are fully functional now contributing to sales from fourth quarter of financial year 2021-22
=It is also a matter of pride for us, we have become first large scale commercial supplier of such products in India and will fulfil major domestic demand while reducing imports and saving foreign exchange
=The company continues to have moderate capex plans averaging Rs 40-50 crore per annum over the medium term, which will be funded largely through internal accruals, thus building up its downstream capacities.
=Revenue growth has picked up in the past four years, driven by diversification of customer base and product portfolio.
=Apart from pharmaceuticals, the company now caters to other sectors such as agro-chemicals and performance-based materials
=With the commissioning of the upstream and downstream capacities, we are focusing to expand domestically and globally while further expanding our operations.
= We are committed to invest more to create downstream capacities while developing newer technologies and product portfolios & improving our R&D capabilities.
= We have hired more technical resources with focus to grow capabilities. The new plants, just commissioned, will also catalyse our growth while demonstrating our technical capabilities, commitment and our vision to become a global technology leader in Phosgene and derivatives while creating niche for us & will help us to continue to be “Partner of Choice” for our customers.
Incorporated in 1972, Paushak is managed by Mr. Chirayu Amin and his family members, promoters of Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd (rated ‘CRISIL AA+/Stable/CRISIL A1+’). Paushak manufactures phosgene-based specialty chemicals, used in the pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, and performance-enhancement industries.
Phosgene’s market size is likely to be driven by its utilization in pharmaceutical, agrochemical, polycarbonates, and chemical industries. The demand for phosgene will be ever increasing and moreover, the demand will be fulfilled by existing players only as it is extremely difficult to set up plants for phosgene-based specialty chemical production
Paushak uses phosgene for 2 things - sell directly and use captively to create specialty chemicals. (According to the 2010 annual report)
MOAT: Phosgene is extremely poisonous and was used as a chemical weapon during World War I, where it was responsible for 85,000 deaths. It was a highly potent pulmonary irritant and quickly filled enemy trenches due to it being a heavy gas. Hence, the license to produce and handle phosgene is not given by the government to new entrants, making barriers to entry very high. License to increase capacity takes 4-5 years and Paushak has successfully increased its capacity from 1440 MT/Year to 4800 MT/year to 14400 MT/year in the last 15 years. The phosgene-based chemicals are essential and no other company can take the market share from Paushak due to extreme regulatory barriers, leading to an increase in demand met by Paushak only. Thus, making it a long-term value investment opportunity, at an appropriate valuation.
Paushak has grown its sales from 30 Cr in 2011 to 150 Crores in 2022, leading to a 15.7% sales CAGR.
The company has healthy margins with >30% EBITDA and ~25% PAT, >25% pre-tax ROCE
1 crore is needed to expand capacity by 80 MT/YEAR. The company completed a 120 Cr capex in 2022, thereby increasing the capacity from 4800 MT/year to 14400 MT/year. With the current capacity of 14400 MT/year, they have a maximum capacity to generate ~450 Crores of revenue, ~100 Crores of operating profit after tax, and ~85 Crores of net profit per year. The current increased capacity of 14400 MT/year may take ~7 years to reach this level of utilization.
The current increased capacity of 14400 MT/year may take ~7 years to generate ~450 Crores of revenue, ~150 Crores of cash, and ~120 Crores of net profit per year. By this time I expect the company to get government approval for increasing their phosgene capacity even further, a trend which has been seen in the last 15 years when the company had 3 capacity expansions approved and successfully implemented (Paushak has successfully increased its capacity from 1440 MT/Year to 4800 MT/year to 14400 MT/year in the last 15 years)
Analyses suggest that ROIC is a major driver in the growth of valuation in the chemical sector across the globe (src: McKinsey)
The company has an ROIC of >40%, a very high ROIC vs an average ROIC of 15%. Generated a Net operating profit after tax of 36 Cr by employing ~40 crores of net working capital and ~40 crores of PPE
Having said all that the valuation seems very rich
On the basis of EV/IC multiple: ~38x (last year’s numbers) vs the median multiple of ~2.5x for the companies in the Indian chemical sector.
On basis of PE multiple: 85x vs the median multiple of ~20x for the companies in the Indian chemical sector.
On the basis of a forward estimation: Even if we give the company a forward EV/IC of 19 (current median of top 10 valued chemical companies in India), after 7 years, the enterprise value will be ~4800 Cr (current EV is 3000 Cr), which is only a ~6.5% CAGR over 7 years.
Closely track the EV/IC multiple and price dip for Puashak. And start accumulating when EV/IC is below 12x.
Its damn overvalued. Even if they are able to do 120 Cr PAT by FY27 and market gives it 30x. It would be valued at 3600 Cr market cap (50% gain from current market cap). Non further calculation required.
It needs to fall more then 50% to be a buy (Depends on other opportunities as well).
I think one should visit the link provided on the tijori link. It leads to a YouTube presentation on forensics where there is a 4 min portion mentioning paushak.
The discussion is a reference on promoters taking loan from company and using it to buyback its own shares, the fact is that from last 2 years the promoter holding is stable and has not changed much. The promoter buying is declared on exchanges and there is less than 10,000 shares traded most of which is internal transfer. There is a merger with another company which is alleged to favour promoters.
There is a mention of loans being rolled over and is made to look like a corporate governance issue. This is a normal thing and does not qualify in anyway as a corp gov issue.
There is a mention by a speaker that he knew someone who worked for Paushak and was there for 15 years and did not get promotion, once he ventured out he got double salary and a “3 level” higher designation, when he resigned Paushak management was willing to match the offer. This is highlihgted as an issue since as per the speaker the owners dont share stuff with employees. Just does not make sense , how is this governance issue.
As regards the money used to buy shares, no source or basis is provided excpet the fact that this is construed from the annual reports.
Somehow its seems just a wild allegation without substance specially when we hear the other reasons shown under corp gov.