In the credit report by icra ,why have they rated borrowings of 13000 crore, their debt is 4500 crore. Are they planning on taking more debt in the future.
Also they have upgraded their rating to A+ for the debt of 13000 crores . They have made a net profit of 400 crores max till date. How is ICRA able to infer that they can repay 13000 crore ?What assets justify the upgradation in rating ?
Paradeep anomia plan breakdown.pdf (101.3 KB)
why this is happening, time and again ??
Great point Aayush. its bit too much of maintenance every now and then
Here is an update on the arbitrage opportunity based on cmp-
| Factor | MCFL | PPL |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price (May 8, 2025) | ₹236.15 | ₹143.95 |
| Swap Ratio | 100 MCFL = 187 PPL | 100 MCFL = 187 PPL |
| Implied Value (via swap) | ₹269.19 (based on PPL price) → ~14% upside | ₹126.30 (based on MCFL price) → ~12% overvalued |
| Arbitrage Opportunity |  YES – Buy low, receive higher PPL value |
 NO – Currently priced above swap ratio value |
| Valuation (FY24 P/E) | ~11–12x (implied) | ~30x (trailing; optically high due to margin pressure) |
| Fundamental Upside Potential | Higher, if post-merger synergies play out |
Moderate – if FY25 EPS normalizes |
| Liquidity / Market Cap | Lower (Small Cap ~₹2,800 Cr) | Higher (Mid Cap ~₹11,700 Cr) |
| Post-Merger Entity | Will cease to exist (merged into PPL) | Surviving listed entity |
| Risk Factors | Delays in merger, valuation gap persistence | High base valuation, low arbitrage room |
| Suitability | Value + Event-driven arbitrage investors | Long-term investors seeking core fertilizer exposure |
in recent conCall i asked the management the same.
“It is unfortunate we had multiple stoppages in the ammonia urea last year. If you look at it, actually, we have recovered from that and majority has come from basically the ammonia compressor side. And to remove all these things once for all, actually, by end of this year, actually, we’ll be replacing the critical ammonia compressors as a program address both reliability as well as the energy efficiency. And apart from that, there’s a lot of other investment we have done in terms of maintainability and reliability improvement. So we expect this year is going to be much better than last year. And just to add that in spite of all these things, we have crossed our RAC.” - This was there response.
could you pls let me understand what is a RAC?
I am not fully sure but, its may be:- Rated Annual Capacity/
Record Annual Capacity
Rated Annual Capacity
does anyone know why the stock price is running up so fast? is it due to the merger and the anticipated price correction upward?
Most fertilizer and chemical companies are showing strength currently. That could be the reason.
Reason is china ban on fertilizer. India is net importer of DAP and urea. That’s why they are surging.
There is no “China ban on Fertilizers”. Its on one grade and one specific chemical which has market share of 3% in India in terms of urea/Dap and other fertilizers.
Strength is due to decent monsoon, good acreage in crops, and fertilizer companies over last 5 years displaying good margins and cash flow.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/chinas-export-curbs-on-fertilisers-cut-supplies-into-india-101751460075252.html
Kindly read between the lines. Disclaimer: Not holding
I don’t hold paradeep but another company in same space. Hence I am aware of these developments. If we look closely, its
India imports nearly 80 percent of its specialty fertilisers, such as water-soluble nutrients, liquid foliar feeds, slow- and controlled-release variants, and bio-stimulants, from China.
The country typically imports around 150,000 to 160,000 tonnes of these high-efficiency nutrients during the June to December cropping period, according to industry estimates cited by ET.
India shouldn’t be in trouble if some country stops export of fertilizer: Piyush Goyal
Now calculate total usage and then correlate to 150k - 160k you will get the answer. Does it pose a problem sure but doesn’t impact SSP, DAP and Urea and Potash. We anyway get this base minerals for these from Canada, Morocco, Saudis etc…95% of production and consumption there is zero impact. DAP anyway Coromandel and others are doing plants…
While demand for specialty fertilisers is rising sharply in India, the country still lacks domestic manufacturing capacity to meet it. So far, volumes have been too low to make local production viable. However, that may soon change.
“Specialty fertilisers are now replacing primary fertilisers, increasing their consumption,” Chakraborty said. As a result, interest in setting up manufacturing units in India is growing, he added.
Companies like Deepak Fertilisers, Paradeep Phosphates, and Nagarjuna Fertilisers are among those operating in this segment.
Any specific news which is causing the stock price to go down to ~185 from ~220?
Edit: All fertilizer stocks saw a correction likely to this news.
