@Arka , where have they committted to open 9 more stores by mar 25 ? as per my understanding they are likely to open only 2 more stores by mar 25 ; this is in line with 12 stores committed in RHP , 9 open in Navratri , 1 now and 2 in future
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| FY 25 | FY 25 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | Q3 P | ||
| Income | |||
| Revenue from Ops | 2,001 | 2,420 | >Assumed 1800 Cr retail and 620 cr refinery sale >Assumed Q3 FY 24 retail ; refinery sales mix was 65:35 and assumed 45% retail growth in this quarter in line with business update >with 45% retail growth , Retail sale would be ~ 1800 Cr and refinery would be 620 cr |
| Other | 12 | 2 | |
| Total Revenue | 2,013 | 2,422 | |
| Expenses | |||
| Cost of Material Consumed | 1866 | 2187 | After factoring in 9.7% Gross Margin |
| Employee Cost | 27 | 33 | In proportion to increase in store from 39 to 48 |
| Finance Cost | 13 | 11 | in proportion to increase in revenue and factoring in 30% reduction due to increase in GML from 20% to 55% |
| Dep and Amort | 7 | 9 | Increased in line with revenue increase |
| Other Cost | 54 | 65 | Increased in line with revenue increase |
| Total Expenses | 1967 | 2305 | |
| Tax | 10.9 | 30.09254511 | |
| 24% | |||
| Gross Profit | 147 | 235 | |
| EBITDA | 66 | 136 | |
| PBT | 46 | 117 | |
| PAT | 35 | 86 | |
| Gross Margin | 7.3% | 9.7% | |
| EBITDA Margin | 3.3% | 5.6% | |
| PAT Margin | 1.7% | 3.6% | |
| Retail: Non Retail Sales Mix | |||
| Retail | 60% | 74% | |
| Non Retail | 40% | 26% | |
| Retail: Non Retail Gross Margin | |||
| Retail | 12% | 12% | |
| Non Retail | 3% | 3% |
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Here is my projection for Q3
@murali603 : For your comments Pl
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@bibhor You may right or wrong. But i appreciate your efforts. Great work sir. Thank you. This post is definitely enlightening.
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I made below annual projections for my YouTube video purpose, I may be a bit more bullish here, but it could be a ball park idea.
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Hi Amit , Can u be little more detailed on assumptions on gross margin , ebitda margin and drivers for these , retail vs refinery ratio and new store count assumed
Only numbers does not help to understand the thought
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This is a conservative estimate, Management told they will be at par with peers margin profile in 2-3 quarters, so we may see gradual improvement in margins QoQ slowly
Hey, Bibhor I have taken the EBITDA margins at 5% in FY’25, which can improve due to higher retail sales as well gold sourcing from IBX along with the higher stud ratio. In my views company is on track to make ~8000 crores of revenue by the end of FYE’25 as of now they have done ~6,000 crores in FY’25. Finance cost in next year could be lower due to use of GML and depreciation could increase because of higher number of stores. I have explained these details in the video link in profile.
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Hey, Amit thanks for sharing the video, I disagree with the sales numbers that 8000 crores can be reached. In my views company could miss this number by 5% to 7% , however margins could be in the same range.
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New store opening at Powai Naka, Satara