Omkar's Portfolio Analysis and Discussion

Hi Gaurav

On the day of the news I was woken up with panic, wasting my morning tea time thinking about this because apart from me even my family’s money is invested with Axis but in the matter of few days that panic is completely gone in my mind

I was playing a waiting game which usually kills the panic, help you take decision rationally (hopefully) and experts come up with their opinions

So I have heard views of two experts -

  1. Parimal Ade - founder Invest yadnya

According to him company should have disclosed this in Feb and that is why he was not happy with management. Owing only to this point (and not investment thesis) he has decided to pause SIPs until he gets more clarity

  1. Kirtan shah - founder credence wealth

I believe his thread is one of the most elaborate on the matter. He has added more units in this panic

Personally

I have SIPs + additional SIPs i started since Jan (since I believe this underperformance is BAU) … what I have decided as of now is - just to stop additional SIPs

Overall i think both - fund management and sebi will ring fence investor interests and Axis will manage fund with same philosophy going forward

Quant - sorry I haven’t studied yet

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Absolutely right. That is why, retail investors should do a quick background check on the Fund Managers. Still there is no guarantee that things like won’t happen but at least it keeps our mind sound.
I think it’s good that Axis AMC has immediately suspended them. They should have done it earlier but what can be done now? Der Aaye Durust Aaye!!
What we should focus on is that the AMC has nothing to do with this. Its just the Fund Managers doing something merky.

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Abbott India - last 5 years OCF - Capex
FCF cagr 50% , stock price cagr - 33%, Pe - 47

2018

153 - 24 = 129

2019

499 - 12 = 487

2020

626 - 15 = 611

2021

726 - 23 = 723

2022

947 - 44 = 943

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Hi Mahesh – Glad you found content useful

As I mentioned in earlier posts, my investment framework is influenced by writings of Arun Kumar. You will find most of your answers in these 3 posts series

Also, at present there is live case study of Axis mutual fund schemes underperforming. I am keeping this thread updated with ‘what’ and ‘why’ of decision making. You can refer to those posts. You will come to know in next few years whether I am right/wrong in my judgment :slightly_smiling_face:

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Evolution of my portfolio diversification belief over time

During college - Modern portfolio theory

Start of investing - Diversification is a protection against ignorance. Three wonderful businesses is more than you need in this life to do very well

1st bear cycle - I am not warren buffet

2nd bull cycle - Diversification is a protection against limitation of my own abilities

Now - whats the science behind portfolio construction? Thinking of starting from scratch with Modern Portfolio Theory

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One more expert take on Axis MF scheme… one can take free 15 days trial and read the article

I was mindful about HCL tech’s valuation while entering in. Current allocation is 2 - 3% of the portfolio. I will be increasing my allocation in the company to to mid - high single digit
1o year PE chart for HCL tech. I entered at historically highest valuation but was mindful of it

Overall I am looking to add in the most of the portfolio positions - Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank, Eris, Abbott and HCL Tech

I will post detail portfolio update soon

From Q1 FY 18 confcall - Eris : Reasons for high margins

Can you elaborate on your views of adding into Abbott India? considering the recent performance and competition?

Hello, I can answer you in one post but the best thing I would suggest is to seacrh this thread with ‘Abbott’ and you will find how the thought process is/was and eveolved over last 1 year. Happy to answer if you still have doubts after going through those posts

Q4 Report Card

Manufacturing

Suprajit Eng – Q4 performance was resilient and ex PLD margins are very much maintained. The one of the reason for having Suprajit as a concentrated bet is ‘’Positive Risk’’ profile it offers because of its incredible M&A track record. Seating in Q1 FY – 22, very few market participants (including me) would have discounted 40 – 50% revenue growth in FY 23. Similarly in next decade or so there will be few more acquisitions which will boost earnings but there is no way to discount them now. The only way to hedge against positive risk is higher allocation as per my approach

Ajanta Pharma – Good growth in branded generics dragged by US business. Though US business was a drag but they are one of the better performers in US market compared to peers (Something I had considered while doing investment thesis) Also good thing is drag is US business I believe - is temporary issue as US FDA has not resumed facility audits. Once that resumes, I believe required infrastructure is already in place for future growth and that is why scope for higher FCF generation

Abbott India – Very robust Q4. One of the reason can be because of - allowed 10% price hike across NLEM portfolio. Overall I expect Abbott’s business to be steady growth with extremely high longevity. As mentioned earlier I would like to spread risk with Eris so that together they give – 1) ability to grow in tough macro/ recessionary periods 2) Ability to maintain margins in high inflationary period 3) all this with Robust ROEs

Services – I believe services are less prone to inflationary pressures

Kotak Bank – Very robust Q4. I appreciate there are many ways to play credit upcycle. But as mentioned earlier my style is stick to the companies having underwriting track record so that it is easier to hold across multiple cycles. Together with HDFC bank and Bajaj finserv I believe, it will give me benefits of required upside while maintaining the downside is next NPA cycle

HCL Tech – descent Q4, management is growth oriented and as I mentioned earlier I don’t understand the differentiation between different IT companies. That is why sticking with Large cap which is lagging a bit than peers so that it offers better valuation. IT I believe, is good hedge against rising dollar. HCL tech also has good ER&D abilities which has caught market fancy recently. I personally don’t understand the long term prospect ER&D. That is why rather than going for specialist in the segment like – TATA Elexi and LTTS – I have gone with HCL tech which has elements of traditional IT, digital and ER&D

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I appreciate the view of past does not gurantee future. But I personally think investing as buying entiere business. When I will personally buy out any business - the first thing before anything - I will check is track record. But there are many ways to earn money in stock market and checking track record may not be mandatory for other styles of investing

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Interesting point of view on Active Vs Passive funds

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what he has essentially said is

  1. Since Indian Market Economy is growing at higher growth at nominal level, compared to other developed economies, for us still the scope is there for alpha generation through Active Investing.
  2. Active fund managers , if they are skillfull can beat the market…while those who dont want to beat the Index, they are right candidates for passive Investment…

If you observe both the points, these are about hope. we dont know how Indian as well as other economies. What we need to consider is the actual results…How the active fund managers in India have fared compared to Index returns…That should be the talking point…not some hope, some claim which may mo may not happen in future. Also he said that Index Investing prospered in those parts where Economy nominal growth rate is low…I would disagree. Index Investing prospered only due to rising awareness of investors about benefits of passive and cons of active.
Lastly Charlie talks about Incentive Bias or Incentive Mental Model…How can we expect fair view about passive index investing from the mouth of Active Fund manager?
Why would he say that he is going to lose this returns game to Index funds, and therefore dont invest in his fund? Does he want to lose his Job?

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Portfolio Update -

Name Allocation Action since last update
Suprajit 28.97% No change
Kotak Bank 12.40% Added
Ajanta Pharma 11.02% No change
Abbott India 3.40% Added
HCL Tech 3.25% Added
HDFC Bank 0.70% New
Eris 0.10% New
Direct Equity 59.84%
Axis long term equity 23.68% XIRR - 12.55% SIP
IDFC Tax advantage elss 16.27% XIRR - 17.23% SIP
Mutual Fund 39.95%
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I will be completing 7 years with IDFC tax advantage ELSS next month and IRR as on today is descent 17.29% for seven years. I am personally very happy with the result. If I have to give one reason because which I was able to pull-out this result then it will be - holding my nerves and units I managed to gather from Jan 2018 to Mar 2020 when fund was underperforming benchmark over 5 years and when 5 years returns were low single digit. Axis long term equity is going through similar patch right now which is testing my patience. Following short note explains IDFC fund house style and ends with short comment on Axis’s underperformance

To Start with - Why I am investing in Multi cap strategies?

Some investors prefer combination of Large cap + Small cap funds but I personally prefer category which gives complete freedom to fund manager to execute their strategies. The real essence of fund management style comes out when manager has complete freedom to choose across market caps. The true art of fund management for Naren and Prashant Jain comes out in their multi cap strategies. It also becomes relatively easy for an investor to judge underperformance as compared to judging underperformance of small cap fund compared to peers.

Difference between IDFC and Axis strategy

IDFC amc’s (Anoop Bhaskar’s) way of looking at diversification is by looking at number of sectors in the portfolio rather than number of stocks. within a sector then they take exposure of multiple companies with lower % allocation to each company. For example - If they decide to own tyre companies they prefer to own three-four tyre stocks at 2-2.5 per cent each instead of one stock at 9 per cent. This feature of capping exposure to individual company, gives them edge to construct portfolio small-mid cap heavy. Higher weightage to small- mid cap makes portfolio - high beta in nature and that is why portfolio usually takes blow in the bear market but in bull market – they compensate more than they lost in bear market. This also gels well with the way Anoop bhaskar looks at AMC business which he has spoken about few times – ‘’contrary to protecting down side in bear market, it is important to do well in bull market as most of the fund inflows come in bull market’’

Even in their factsheet, IDFC AMC represents portfolio structure with their core philosophy of diversification as mentioned above . You can see fund manager tries to include as many sectors as he can. All of their multicap schemes have this as a common salient feature

Axis style, as everyone knows, is sticking with so called ‘’Quality’’ companies and since most of these companies are large cap in nature, their way to create alpha is by concentrating on their bottom up selection. Example – They have 10% allocation to Bajaj Finance and 5% to Bajaj finserv. For 33,000 cr fund – Top 20 stocks contribute 85-90% allocation.

As you can see both the styles are exactly opposite – 1) IDFC prefers diversification, Axis prefers concentration 2) IDFC is small mid cap heavy, Axis is large cap heavey. This also shows in their fund performance. When IDFC underperformance, axis outperforms and vice a versa. This also makes my life easy as when one fund underperforming, the performance of other fund acts as a guide to decide whether this is BAU or permanent

Small Note on the side – What I also observe that, we as retail investors discuss lot about ‘’Number’’ of stocks in portfolio but fund managers decides strategy and ‘’number’’ of stocks is the by-product of the strategy. Number of stocks is not a primary strategy

Commenting on Axis underperformance

We are at very interesting juncture in the market where both the schemes – IDFC and Axis - are showing diametrically opposite performance as expected but this time IDFC is outperforming when market is in bear grip. The part of the reason can be the start of new cycle with rising interest rates which is mean reverting the valuations of ‘’Quality’’ stocks. Also Axis MF, attributes this to heavy FII selling as mentioned below in their last month’s factsheet

Overall I think, this underperformance can last for longer. My judgement is this is business as usual and long term IRR will be jump back to high teens to twenty% once the cycle turns.

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What I feel the most important reason for the good performance of your IDFC Elss scheme is not much to do with their fund philosophy or strategy…its more to do with your patience to hold it in thick and thin. My gut feeling is that if any average scheme, if you hold for long enough time, it will give more than satisfactory returns. Its just that investors either lose patience and redeem the investment or jump from one scheme to another as per the flavor of that year, that they start underperforming relative to that very fund which they are holding , during their own specific holding period. Your Fund shows 12.29 % returns from last 5 years but 17.41% returns over 10 years which is similar to your holding period returns. So just 2 years later than yours, and CAGR drops by more than 5%…So what matters is entry point and holding period…Otherwise strategy of this fund has not changed during last 7 years and during last 5 years…But returns changed by a huge margins…pls correct me, where I am misreading anything

Hi

My effort is generate top quartile return over a long term (10 + years). In past 10 years both the funds which I am holding have top quartile perfroamnce. (**This does not mean they will be top quartile for next 10 years) Therefore I believe this is because of sound fund performance which is linked to fund’s philosophy/ strategy. Investor has opportunity to earn even more than fund returns. If investor has idea about fund’s strategy then she can generate returns more than fund by buying more units when fund is underperforming. I did this with Axis till last month but unfortunately scam broke out which made me stop additional SIPs. All these areguments are part of jusdement which can go wrong as well

Following are returns for Regular schemes. ‘Direct’ scheme returns are around 100 bps more than Regular. You can see both funds are top quartile over 10 years.

IDFC

Axis

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Also, all this has luck factor as well. I started investing in MF looking at past returns. Later when I build current understanding I found my selection inline with the understanding I developed

I started investing with IDFC MF in 2015 and ANoop Bhaskar joined in 2016. He then pulled Daylynn Pinto (current fund manager) from UTI which is Anoop Bhaskar’s previous organization. Daylynn Pinto started managing fund from Dec 2016. Made killing in 2017 bull run. went in 2018 cycle with small mid cap wightage unchanged … suffered but did not change startegy which turned out be winner post 2020 cycle

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Coming back to direct investing, I am trying to evaluate if I can grow with Eris as company grows over long term

Following are the growth drivers, First three are I would say are ‘’essentials’’, what everyone else is also doing. I believe the long term wealth creation of company hinges on the 4th point – M&A

The nature of the growth for Eris has been acquisitive and I believe that will be the case in future as well. Eris has industry leading efficiency which management alludes to the narrow focus company has. The template has been buying a brand and scale it up OR buying a business – prune unwanted part of portfolio and focus on few brands. I personally think there are two challenges in that

  1. Competition for buying branded generic asset and that’s why having to pay up for the asset

  2. Ability to create value from acquired asset after asset

Acquisitions So Far

  1. Amay Pharma (2016) – Acquired trademark in relation to 40 brands for 32 Cr - to strengthen its product portfolio in cardiovascular and anti-diabetics therapeutic areas
  2. Kinedex Pharma (2016) - Acquired 75.5% stake for consideration of Rs 77.18 crore - to foray into mobility related disorders in the musculoskeletal therapeutic area
  3. UTH Healthcare (2017) - Acquired 100% stake for consideration of Rs 12.85 crore - to foray into Nutraceuticals business.
  4. Strides Shasun Indian business (2017) - Acquired Indian Branded formulation business for a consideration of Rs 500 crore to foray into Central Nervous System.
  5. Zomelis (2019) - Acquired anti diabetic drug trade mark Zomelis from Novartis for around 100 cr
  6. JV with MJ Biopharm (2021) – to offer Insulin
  7. Oaknet (2022) – Acquired 100% stake in Oaknet Healthcare for Rs 650 cr for dermatology foray

That’s around 1300 cr spent of acquisition from 2016 – 2022 while cumulative cash flow in the same period is ~ 1700 Cr. As one can see more than 75% of the cash flow generated has gone in this acquisitions which will be case in future as well as per my judgement. Therefore I think M&A growth driver is make and break for future wealth creation. That’s why I would like to take it slow, monitor, build confidence around management’s execution abilities. The starting point is see how management has done with the acquisition so far, try to find some signals if I can and as I gain confidence build position slowly and steadily

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