China tightened again the rare earth exports, leading to even Trump to respond with heavy tariffs against china. In the recent past, other companies sales dipped because of rare earth materials scarcity and Ola gained a little market share.
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The latest salvo by the Chinese, if implemented, could be very worrisome as it would have a decisive impact on the entire electronic components value chain worldwide. Remember the auto/ EV slowdown after COVID-19, due to a semiconductor shortage? The impact of this move could be as bad or much worse, if they are implemented in full letter and spirit.
Summary of Main Points from the Post:
Overview: China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued six new export control notices (55-58, 61-62) on October 9, 2025, requiring licenses for rare-earth metals/oxides, magnets, battery/graphite items, and foreign products with significant Chinese components. Partial effects immediate; full rollout by December 1, 2025. Aimed at hardware supply chains for EVs, robots, drones, wind turbines, and more, with global impacts including India and Europe.
Key Impacts for Hardware Builders: Applies to motors, actuators, generators, sensors, and sputtering equipment with Chinese rare-earths/magnets exceeding thresholds.
Mandatory: Origin tracking, compliance documents, and end-use declarations; non-compliance risks, shipment delays.
Affected sectors: EVs/robotics (e.g., NdFeB/SmCo magnets), wind/drones (longer qualification times), chips (sputtering targets/tools).
Beijing’s Rationale: Framed as national security measures to counter external pressures and fulfill global responsibilities, with case-by-case approvals.
On-the-Ground Effects: Miners prioritizing domestic use; exporters enhancing tracing/declarations; SMEs facing compliance challenges, while larger firms adapt quickly.
Regional Notes: Re-exports from India/EU trigger licenses if Chinese content is involved—requires supplier origin certificates.
Link to the post in X below
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Consumers are willing to wait for months if not year (s) for the right product…as was/is evident from waitung time and prebiokings for some of sought after Mahindra and even Tata vehicles…Although not direct comparison but even if rare earth scarcity, companies like ABB India etc. are already working on rare earth free motors…incumbents products if perceived superior may result in consumers waiting their turn for right product rather than jumping to a product where service is in question…
I maybe wrong in my assessment and above views purely personal as a consumer. Not invested in any automobile company yet. (even if we may call any as a platform or new tech…not invested if product is an automobile yet).
Would be good to know thoughts why would someone buy a product if so many service related issues. What may happen if government steps in and takes some harsh decision in favour of consumers whose vehicles are unavailable to them for months because kf service issue?
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Exports were tightened for US not India. Indian Cos will get their quota under the condition that they don’t re-route stock to US.
This is Xi’s retaliation against US because they were restricting NVIDIA’s latest GPUs from being shipped to China.
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Over Q2, mutual funds have more than doubled their position in Ola electric. Clearly, at least some people with large research teams see some value in Ola Electric at current prices.
The negativity related to reliability of vehicles would persist for now but within 2-2.5 years, you shall see improved reliability due to software patches as well as new service centers. That time will also coincide with yield improvements in Bharat cells. By then, supply chain issues for lithium and rare earth magnets would be resolved.
Few people think 2-3 years in future.
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I beg to differ. I read many articles about the recent chinese rare earth exports tightening and none of them was mentioning it is for US alone. Please quote your sources that it’s only for USA and India gets preferential treatment with the re-route clause.
I haven’t gone through the export controls. However, even for China it won’t be sustainable in the long term. They have lakhs of people dependent on export of these very commodities. Export controls would always be on and off thing as they wouldn’t want a competing ecosystem to develop. If there are strict controls, there would be a setback but ultimately a parallel supply chain would come in existence too.
I hope there are strict controls though. Good for our EV ecosystem in the long term.
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My viewpoint is largely influenced by this article which makes it sound like China’s export controls specifically target US
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They are finally releasing powerpod?https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/d2214492-e4df-48c6-b3bb-6467732da409.pdf
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Disclaimer:
Personal Opinion, not a financial advice
Mostly based on public info, already known to those tracking or might have been discussed earlier
Charts based on Vahan data
Ola Electric’s core challenge is its tarnished reputation, largely stemming from the rushed launch of subpar first-generation products. The company acquired Etergo BV—an early-stage dutch startup with a single scooter design tailored for Amsterdam streets, featuring large under-seat storage designed to hold a crate of beer. Ola then hastily adapted and launched this scooter in India, despite the design being ill-suited for Indian roads and climate. This led to widespread product and service issues, damaging not only Ola’s image but also hurting public perception of electric scooters more broadly. Subsidies, available under FAME have also came down resulting in some slowdown in growth of EVs.
Ola scaled rapidly, at one point capturing close to 50% of the EV two-wheeler market share—though part of this was reportedly inflated by related-party sales to its parent firm. The company then rode the wave of hype into an IPO, without first establishing robust after-sales support.
High-gloss presentations, ambitious product announcements, factory tours created a stark disconnect between investor perception and the actual customer experience. Early adopters faced unreliable products and poor service, while newer buyers grew hesitant due to negative word-of-mouth. Even with significant discounted prices compared to competitors, sales have been declining in what is otherwise a growing market. All these has resulted in Ola slipping to 4th place in September month and quarter. On average, each store—most of which are company-owned—sells only about one scooter per week. This volume is far from sustainable and only adds to operational costs. Multiple iteration of product and colour combinations results in probably close to 100 2W variants to choose from, a difficulty for customer in choosing, and a nightmare for company in inventory management.
On Numbers, numbers shared by company should be read with caution. Their February claim of 25000 sales was later clarified as future booking given around 8000 odd registrations in February. Their repeated claim of 1 million vehicles sales from 15th August, doesn’t match Vahan numbers, they haven’t reached there yet.
Simply launching improved products won’t be enough to restore trust. Ola Electric needs a complete brand overhaul. Without this, there’s a real risk of the company fading away, as many have before in the volatile two-wheeler segment. Notably, Ola has already spent half of its IPO proceeds, delayed planned R&D investments (instead parking those funds in fixed deposits), and is now taking on debt to finance some of capex raising further questions about its financial prudence. For me, the numbers are suggesting neither growth nor revival yet.
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Tarnished brand reputation is an issue that ideally should never have existed. The company has all the tools at its disposal to strengthen its service network and address operational inefficiencies, yet for some reason (God knows why), the intent, or rather the razor-sharp focus, seems to be missing.
To rebuild brand reputation, Ola Electric needs a fresh mindset. It must go a step beyond its competition to show that it truly cares, that it stands by its promise, and that when the moment demands, it can deliver.
When I invested in the stock, my thesis was simple: if Bhavish and his team could accomplish the hard stuff, setting up a Gigafactory and a Futurefactory, then fixing service issues should be a breeze. I gave them the benefit of doubt, mistakes happen in business, especially when your iteration cycles are fast.
I remain bullish on Ola Electric because what the management has achieved in just five years is remarkable. But my bullishness is on the business, and the business is its brand, reputation, and customer experience, none of which are improving with rate that it should.
So, I’ll wait, patiently, to add to my position, but only when I see clear intent from the management to drive change in customer experience.
Learning for me -
In the end, every consumer business rises or falls on the quality of its consumer experience.
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I searched on google regarding powerpod manufacturers in india and the list of companies included Ola Electric (OE) (in household inveters) and the reference document was news article dated 26 Nov 24. So if OE is already into inverter and energy storage space, what it might be launching on 17 th Oct 25.
Also in my personal opinion, right now, OE already has its hands full with too many things to handle/manage as of now, so why adding things to the already full plate? The October sales are really not encouraging given the festive season. I am yet to see a roadster in my area (metropolitan city).
Invested, may sell or buy depending upon story development.
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IMO, Ola Shakti looks like a good product line. They probably had all the expertise in-house; there is no need to spend extra resources. It has the same ASP as a scooter. It has low chances of product failure as it has lesser number of moving parts compared to a scooter.
The only drawback is that the Ola brand has taken a hit. People will wait for long-term reviews before buying the product.
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On Ola Shakti, the main play is not B2C imho. This can be a huge B2B opportunity. From large solar parks to companies like Waaree and Vikram can be its partners. I understand the some groundwork is actually being done in this direction.
As for B2C, commercial establishments should be bigger customers than domestic. But let us wait a quarter and see. Currently, even the product is not ready.
In the meanwhile, service has seen some slow improvement. I hope it becomes significant soon and sales start to grow again.
For the B2C segment, the current setup of 4×200Ah batteries paired with a pure sine wave Luminous Optimus 4500+ inverter delivers roughly the same output as Ola’s Shakti 5.2 kWh pack and still comes in about 50,000 cheaper. So, for now, there’s little reason to focus on the B2C numbers. (It won’t be meaningful to move the needle)
Given that it’s essentially the same battery pack used in the Roadster, it’s clearly not designed for industrial use cases. Ola is developing a separate BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) solution for industrial containerized setups, which will have different specifications, but that’s still some time away.
Secondly, unlike solar panels that fall under the ALMM scheme, battery cells don’t have any such framework. This makes it highly unlikely that players like Waaree or Vikram would adopt it, since Chinese versions remain cheaper for them.
In my view, this whole initiative is a distraction. The company should stay focused on bikes and scooters for now.
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CNBCTV18: Bengaluru Police register FIR against Ola Electric CEO Bhavish Aggarwal and a senior official under Section 108 of BNS in connection with the alleged suicide of the company’s engineer K Aravind.
Aravind’s 28-page note blames Aggarwal and senior officials of mental harassment, excessive work pressure, and unpaid salary and allowances, stating these factors led him to take his life.
Company transferred ₹17 lacs after 2 days of employee suicide in order to support the family.
Board approved a proposal to raise up to ₹1,500 crore through the issue of **equity shares and/or convertible securities.
Seems dilution would be around 6%, if raised fully ( correct me if I am wrong)
Ref: https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/60b6e15e-6462-4029-818c-5114d6aaa278.pdf
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Bhavish Announced the Opening of Ola Electric eco system, which includes direct parts sales, service manual, training and diagnostic tools availability. This is truly exceptional. as they are not able to handle service volume opening up will help a lot. My personal experiance with using OLA S1 Pro 2nd gen for 1.5 years with 25k kms is very good except for service. Getting appointment for service is headeache followed by spares avilablity. My last service belt needed replacement which took 15 days. which is unacceptable. lately stopped visiting service centre for brekpad replacments as well. once the spare parts are avilable people can get it serviced outside.
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