NMDC-Value or Cyclical?

As per the article published by Mint, NMDC Steel may be listed in December 2022.

Disc : Holding NMDC as Dividend Stock.

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Let us discount the 21000 crore by 50%. So, the adjusted market value will be 25000 crore for average net profit per year around 6500 for the last 5 years. Considering the iron ore prices are at the lower end of the cycle, in my opinion, I agree with your observation that NMDC is very undervalued. Nice margin of safety. Also, I believe and hope that NMDC is past its mine leasing issues.

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Also, it was as if the the market wasn’t valuing the steel plant pre-merger. So when the prices corrected, post merger, the margin of safety just increased for post merger NMDC. Hope the steel plant is profitable but not sure it will be as profitable as NMDC w.r.t profit margin. Let’s be conservative and say that we will receive a dividend of Rs 5 this year, the dividend yield will still be roughly 5% which is alright. I guess NMDC might not become a multi bagger like some of the other growth companies but I think of it as better than bond investing.

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No export duty on iron ore, steel -

"The government has withdrawn or cut export duty on steel products and iron ore effective Saturday. Duty was imposed in May this year.**

As per the Finance Ministry notification issued late on Friday, exports of iron ore lumps and fines with ‘less than 58 per cent Fe’ will attract NIL export duty. In the case of iron ore lumps and fines with more than ’58 per cent Fe’, the rate of duty will be 30 per cent. Exports of iron ore pellets will attract NIL export duty. Similarly, exports of pig iron and steel products (classified under Harmonised System or HS 7201, 7208, 7209,7210,7213, 7214, 7219, 7222 & 7227) will attract NIL export duty."

(Government cuts export duty on steel products, iron ore - The Hindu BusinessLine)

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