For a long time, I’ve been itching to start investing in stocks. Covid gave me the perfect time and opportunity to read about the basics of markets and start investing. It’s been a rollercoaster of experiences.
By sheer chance, I hit it big with a couple of stocks. Eg:- Polycab and Astral were my first-ever picks.
Lost a good bit of money in stocks where my research was incomplete or I was ignorant of cycles and other intricate market details.
In the first couple of years, I consumed a lot of content on social media, youtube for stock tips and made a few serious errors.
Over the last few months, I have started building a framework and was trying to make more educated decisions.
I’ll discuss the rationale of my investments in this thread. I already have 20 stock portfolio, I will keep updating the thread.
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PSP projects(Avg price - 588, Allocation - 5%)
Thesis:-
The balance sheet is clean and the track record is superior. Infrastructure push in the economy by the government. Have an outstanding order book of ~5300 crores as of Q1FY24.
Anti Thesis:-
Historically not a great industry to enjoy great returns.
Selling criteria:-
Order book slows down, Continuous bad quarters, Macro factors. -
Globus Spirits(Avg price - 1098, Allocation - 7.5%)
Thesis:-
The company is trying to scale up its consumer business, which will have higher realizations. They are doing aggressive capex and trying to enter new markets.
Anti Thesis:-
Government regulations. Competition when entered into new markets, will take some time to break even. High dependency on Coal, Rice, and Power costs.
Selling criteria:-
I entered the business during over earning phase. I did all the mistakes one can do in investing. (Incomplete research, accumulating during break downs, not understanding about over earning phase).
I see the business showing good growth over the next few years. I will get out of the stock if fundamentals deteriorate or I get a chance to book profits or find better opportunities. -
VBL (Avg price - 631.13, Allocation - 6.5%)
Thesis:-
Electricity and refrigeration penetration in India is to increase in the next decade. Due to the hot summers ahead, we can expect more cold beverage consumption. Expansion into new geographies outside India. Improving product mix(Kurkure Puffcorn co-packing, dairy, energy drinks).
Anti Thesis:-
New products and focus areas not working out. Margin compression due to competitors. Corporate Governance issues. Water supply procuring issues.
Selling criteria:-
A visible slowdown in business growth due to a huge base. I feel this would be a good compounder stock for this generation of investors. I plan to hold on as long as the thesis is intact, as I don’t want to be on a constant lookout for every stock in my portfolio.