ValuePickr Forum

Need suggestion on portfolio SK

Hi, I am almost beginner in stock market. I did some trading in past and lost some money as I bought shares without knowing about what company is doing. This time I am planning to be a value investor and invest in good quality stocks. Below is my portfolio as of date and I need Value pickr members expert suggestion.

Name Investment price
BHEL 89
Bharat Electronics 167
CPSE ETF 26.70
Coal India 250
Deep Industries 190
Exide Industries 220
ITI 129
Jindal Steel and Power 188
Bhushan Steel 44
ICICI Lombard 751
SBI 277
Yes Bank 311
Maruti Suzuki 9500
M&M 758
ITC 260

My main allocation is in Bharat22,CPSE ETF, Bharat Electronics and Jindal Steel and Power. I am planning to have below portfolio in long term along with expected price. I will not wait for below price to come. Instead I will buy these stocks as soon as they are 25-30% down from current price.

Bharat Electronics - 100-120
Exide Industries - 100-120
Amaraja Batteries - 400
Maruti Suzuki - 5000
M&M - 450
ITC - 120
HDFC Bank and/or ICICI Bank - 1200/150
Yes Bank - 250
HDFC - 1200
Jindal Steel and Power - Already below book value
Asian Paints - 500
Cera Sanityware
Kajaria ceramics - 250
Eicher motors - 12000
Escorts - 400
Dilip Buildcon
Persistent Systems
Infosys

Apart from these, I am thinking of small cap like Deep Industries, Nitin spinners, Kitex garment. Currently I have allocated 25% of my planned invetsment. I am waiting for some stock correction(25-30%) so that I can allocate 25-30% more to my portfolio. My horizon is long term(5-10 years or more) depending on how business perform.

Any feedback on the stocks and/or price will be appreciated.

Public sector companies never become long term wealth creator. At best, their returns will match inflation. Though, they can be good short term bets if there prices become too depressed. Or if privatisation card is being played, then that can unlock huge value. But that will be special situation Investment.

Position size is just as important as stock picking and entry price. FOMO can make you own all the hot stocks out there, but if your bets are spread too thin, the overall returns will only approximate the average market return. Concentrate on a handful of well researched stocks. It should be your research for you to have conviction of holding them.

That said, you will find seperate threads for some of the stocks mentioned above in this forum. I assume they are good picks, but I only own HDFC bank. It’s a long term growth story, and with value migration from PSU banks, we can expect the growth story to continue for few more years. Besides, it is a kind of business where size is beneficial, as it will have a larger pool of loyal customers.

Lastly, I would not suggest adding a stock if it has fallen 20-25%, unless market is also down by the same magnitude or more. But if your stock is falling that much in a rangebound or strong market, then something is likely to be wrong with it’s business.

1 Like

ITC is a super fmcg stock but it’s a huge laggard. Movement is not there much. Goes from 260 to 275 and then again falls to 260. Have tested the patience of it’s shareholder for a long period of time

Thanks @Divyanshu_Bagga . I agree about public sector companies. I am planning to have only Bharat Electronics in my portfolio and get rid of Bharat 22, CPSE ETF and probably Coal India too. I am double minded about SBI since it is biggest public sector bank and available at good rate. But considering whats going on with PSU bank, I might sell it or keep it in small quantity.

About Bharat Electronics, reason why I want to keep it is -

  1. There is Make in India initiative going on and Bharat Electronics will have advantage of this. e.g. Boeing will setup a factory in India with HAL. Similar initiative might be happening for Bharat Electronics too
  2. Order book of Bharat Electronics is huge and it has a wide MOAT. There is no other company to compete it.
  3. Available at good rate near to intrinsic value(120).
  4. Modernization of weapons is expected in India and this is mentioned by defense minister too.

Again thanks for your feedback

1 Like

@Utsab I have ITC for around 6 months and I observed same. There is less movement. Reason why I bought is mainly due to monopoly in cigarette business. Currently I have very small quantity of ITC(5%). 50% of my portfolio is of Bharat 22,CPSE ETF and Jindal Steel and Power.

I was buying BHEL in SIP , it was continuously going down. I read through the CAG audit report sometime back and decided to move out of it completely.

Hi All

I am uploading my current portfolio and future considerations. I need feedback from seniors on my portfolio. I know that will be a suggestion and not the recommendation. So please feel free to suggest any changes.

My main questions are -

  1. Is there any major risk missing on any of these companies?
  2. Am I thinking of over-diversification? I was thinking of holding 15-20 companies. But I might end up in holding around 25 companies.
  3. Any comment on portfolio diversification in term of small, mid and large cap?
  4. I had few other companies in my watchlist like Dabur, Godrej Consumers, Amaraja batteries, Balakrishna Industries, Cera, Kajaria, Century Plyboard, Caplin lab, Multibase India, Havells, Asian paints). But most of them are at high PE. So I dont plan to buy them until there is huge correction in price.
Name Current allocation(%) Target allocation(%) Reason
Currently holding
ITC 3.5 7 1. Diversified business in hotel, tobacco, consumer products 2. Stable growth, low chances of capital erosion
Maruti 3 7 1. Have only tracking quantity. Planning to buy more on dip 2. Biggest shareholding in car 3. Spare parts available almost everywhere. So most of people want to buy only maruti car specially in small cities. This trend is changing in metro cities considering there are some good car /SUV from Hyundai and Renault 4. Good management 5. Company is looking for shift to EV and CNG/Hybrid cars 6. Zero debt
M&M 2 0 1. Mahindra is one of good brands in tractors even though Mahindra is not doing good in SUV. 2. Good management
Bharat Electronics 11 8 1. Single largest company in defence equipment manufacturing 2. Growth is not good. But there are no chances of capital erosion 3. Defence equipments are not modernized and there is need of updating them. BEL is going to benefit from Make in India initiative 4. Zero debt
Yes Bank 3.5 7 1. One of good private sector bank 2. Management seems good 3. Available at cheap valuations as comparative to other private sector bank
Exide Industries 3 5 1. Good brand in batteries. But I might buy Amaraja in future and sell exide. I heard good feedback about Amaraja
Dilip Buildcon 7 8 1. Good order book which keep on growing. DBL seems to have enough order for next 3 years 2. Diversified in different states and areas like road, bridge, coal mines etc even though most of orders are from NHAI 3. Management seems good 4. Owns equipment and no subcontractor. Most of projects(90%) are completed before time. Risk - 1. political connection with BJP govt. So not sure what will happen if BJP doesn’t come to power in next election 2. Debt is high. But it is getting reduced
Avanti Feeds 5 7 1. Low debt 2. Good management
CPSE ETF 11 0 1. Bought few months back and was not aware of ETF funds at that time. Will sell them gradually as soon as I get confidence in buying individual stocks
Bharat 22 ETF 13 0 1. Bought few months back and was not aware of ETF funds at that time. Will sell them gradually as soon as I get confidence in buying individual stocks
Jindal Steel and Power 10 7 1. Demand of steel will never go away as steel is being used everywhere 2. JSPL is revamping and reducing debt. With Naveen Jindal son involvement, JSPL will soon be profitable 3. Company is mainly building rail tracks. With infrastructure getting improved, there is need of more railyway tracks. Hence JSPL will get benefit Risk - 1. High debt 2. Political connection(congress) of Naveen Jindal and his name appearing in coal scam
Mirza Intl 2 5 1. Red tape seems good brand and used by youth 2. Company is making sports and other type of shoes for domestic and international market
Persistent system 2 5 1. Mid size company focusing on digitalization, big data, Machine learning mainly in health care domain. These are the areas which seems IT future 2. Presence in multiple countries
Rain Industries 2 5 Not sure about the business
SBI 5 5 1. Biggest public sector bank. There are chances of getting benefit from govt aid. 2. Low chance of capital erosion
Coal India 4 5 1. Biggest player in coal 2. Coal seems main source of power in India and it will not change soon
Others(ITI,BHEL,ICICI Lombard, Deep Industries,Bhushan steel) ITI- 3 BHEL -4 ICICI Lombard -2 Deep Industries -2 Bhushan Steel -1 1. ITI - makes communcation devices. But going into loss for long time. So will sell it 2. BHEL - loss making company. Will sell 3. ICICI Lombard - Don’t have any knowledge about company. I have small quantity of it. Hence will sell it soon 4. Deep Industries - I bought it considering low PE, good ROE etc. But share price keep going down due to its owner named in ONGC corruption scandal. Hence will sell it 5. Bhushan steel - bought few months back when companies were bidding for it. I assumed price will increase once any company buy it. But price reduced to half. I sold half of quantity and will sell rest of them soon
Future consideration(will buy on dip)
Aurobindo pharma 3 1. Low debt 2. Seems company is diversifying business from US to Europe. It was in my watchlist for few months and saw price increasing from 500 level to 700. I didn’t buy any pharma stock since I was not sure about pharma sector
ICICI Bank 4 1. Second largest bank after HDFC. I am personally using ICICI for 10 years and like it.
HDFC 3 1. Good management and brand 2. Good processed
HDFC Bank 4 1. Good management and brand
Infosys 5 1. Good Management 2. Second largest company after TCS and available at low PE than TCS
Piramal enterprise 1. Good Management 2. Diversified business Risk - 1. High debt
Evaluating(thinking but not decided)
Harita Seating 1. TVS group company 2. Low debt 3. Seems biggest player in seat in all categories of vehicles
Mayur uniquoter 1. Provide leather to most of car brands 2. Low debt 3. Planning to reduce cost through PU leather
CMI Ltd 1. Biggest provider in specialized cable 2. Recently started Baddi plant which will increase production Risk - 1. Railway seems main client. So dependent on govt. 2. High debt

Holdings.xlsx (13.3 KB)

Hi @Yogesh_s @hitesh2710 Sir, Special request to you to provide your feedback on my portfolio.

Its good to see that you have listed your reasons to invest in these companies. Next question to ask is ‘who doesn’t know that?’. Often for large companies all bullish arguments are already baked in the market price and you should buy or hold these if you have some insights that make you more bullish than the seller. Otherwise, a portfolio of 25-30 stocks will have a tough time beating a mutual fund which you can buy and spare yourself of all the trouble of building one yourself.

Another suggestions is to list out risks that you see ahead for each of these stocks. Often, we are biased towards companies we own and fail to see risks that can hurt. Having an idea of risks will prepare us in case when the risk materializes. Sometimes risks could be as simple as high valuation coming down while the company itself doing just fine.

5 Likes

Below is my updated portfolio. I have sold Deep Industries and increased exposure in Yes Bank, Avanti Feeds. I am planning to sell CPSE ETF,Bharat22, ITI, ICICI Lombard in near future.

Stock Allocation(%) Comments
Avanti Feeds 8.67
Bharat 22 ETF 11.17 Will reduce to 0 in future
Bharat Elec 10.14
Coal India 3.11
CPSE ETF 8.12 Will reduce to 0 in future
Dilip Buildcon 10.72
Exide Ind 2.67 Thinking about increasing exposure or buying Amaraja
ICICI Lombard 2.12
ITC 4.35
ITI 2.41 Will reduce to 0 in future
Jindal Steel 6.57
M&M 1.61
Maruti Suzuki 4.67
Mirza Intl 1.81
Persistent 6.15
Rain Industries 2.70
SBI 4.33
Yes Bank 8.70

I have added risk against each stock. Sorry it took time as I am learning importance of these things. Also I am changing my investment thesis too. Earlier, i was buying stocks which i liked based on financial criteria. Now I am planning to have 70-80% of solid companies and rest 15-20% could be small caps or experimental companies.

I realized that I should have investment checklist/criteria and shouldn’t buy stock because I liked the company based on financial parameters. e.g. initially i thought of Rain Industry as part of my core portfolio. But I move it to experimental since I dont understand the business well(in fact don’t understand it at all). Currently I have 12% allocation to Bharat Electronics which I am planning to reduce to 5-7%. I will increase my allocation in Godrej and Hero Honda once I trim my allocation in Bharat Electronics.

Also I am considering few companies like HDFC, HDFC Bank, HDFC Life, 3M India, Pidilite, Asian Paints, TCS,Dabur India. But currently these companies are at high valuations. I am waiting for correction to enter them on dip.

Please see below my updated portfolio for expert opinions/critic.

Long term I am looking my portfolio having below companies -
Maruti Suzuki, Hero Honda, HDFC, HDFC Bank, HDFC Life, Dilip Buildcon, Avanti Feeds, Bharat Electronics, 3M India, ITC, Dabur, Godrej, TCS, HDFC AMC, Pidilite and 4-5 companies as experimental like Beekay Steel, some pharma company like Aurobindo/caplin lab, Mayur Uniquoters etc.

@Yogesh_s @dineshssairam You were always helpful in guiding new investors like me and I really appreciate that. I request you to provide your feedback so that I can improve.

1 Like

I can see that you have quite a number of cyclical stocks in your portfolio (Avanti Feeds, Jindal Steel and Power, Rain Industry, Coal India). I’m not saying investing in cyclical stocks is bad. It just needs more scrutiny and constant monitoring just to keep your capital safe.

Apart from that, I can see that you are invested in many state-controlled companies too (Bharat Electronics, SBI, Coal India). Once again, nothing wrong with the underlying businesses themselves. But in a quasi-social country like India, there is no saying when the government will arm-twist these businesses (Either directly or indirectly) into making bad capital allocation decisions.

Case in point, SBI is a massive banking giant, having the largest market share and all the pricing power in the world. It should have easily created huge wealth for its shareholders in the past. But if you’d invested in SBI a decade back, right at the bottom after the 2008 crisis, you would have still only made ~9% by way of CAGR until today. And god forbid if you’d invested in it just a year back, at the top of 2008, you’d have made ~2% by way of CAGR until today.

If you are comfortable holding and monitoring these stocks for these negative instances, then all’s good. But I personally think it’s too much of work to do for too little or normal returns. As Prof. Sanjay Bakshi put it, we should measure investment returns via ‘Returns per Unit of Stress’ and not ‘Returns per Unit of Risk’.

2 Likes

Thanks Dinesh for the quick reply. I agree about the cyclical stocks. I didn’t realize when I was investing in them. e.g. Jindal Steel and Avanti Feeds - I realized later on that these are cylical industries. My plan is to get out of Jindal Steel and Power in future. I believe this stock is going to turn around as company started generating profit after many years. Also debt is getting reduced and Owner Navin Jindal mentioned that their plan is to reduce debt drastically in next 2 years. About Coal India, I was double minded if I should keep some quantity of it considering it is largest and single coal company in India.

About Bharat electronics, reason why I bought this is due to Make In India initiative. We are using old weapons in India and army need modernized weapons and gadgets. As Modi govt was promoting Make in India, I thought of keeping it in portfolio as 5-7% of total portfolio. But I ended up having 12% since I started buying it from 195 and ended up averaging at 125.

SBI, you are correct. I dont plan to keep it in my portfolio in long term. I will buy HDFC Bank instead of Yes Bank.

Again Thanks for your feedback. This type of feedback always helps new investors like me to take better decision.

I have added my long term planned portfolio at the end. Do you have any comment on it?

Good to see that you have listed reasons and risks. However, I feel it is important to list your expectations from these stocks.

We all invest because we except the stock price to go up. So that’s an implicit expectation. But you need to break it down and ask yourself why you expect price to go up. It could be because profits could go up or valuations could rise. Then again you need to ask why profits could go up or valuations could rise. It could be because you expect sales go up with stable margins or you expect stock to be perceived as less risky, etc.

Real risk in investing comes from having wrong set of expectations. Once you list your expectations, others can comment on it to see if your expectations are realistic or optimistic. When we are long on a stock, we invariably have optimistic expectations so this platform can be useful in giving those expectations a reality check.

e.g. for Yes bank you have listed low ROE as a risk. Do you expect ROE to go up? if yes, then why? Also is it not priced already? If not then why? If you don’t expect ROE to go up then how do you expect price to go up?

You have listed Avanti as cyclical. Do you expect that downcycle will end and upcycle will start? Does market not know that already?

In general, you should invest when you expect risks that you (and more importantly market) perceive in an investment are likely to go down, unlikely to materialize or already have materialized. And you should be able to explain why.

I think you have invested in these companies just to catch the rebound in prices. Since price has dropped, you expect it will go back up, if not fully at least partially. Sorry to be so blunt but that’s my honest opinion, since you asked for it.

5 Likes

Not always! Markets mis price large cap stocks too. One needs to wait and jump. Sometimes bearish arguments get deep rooted and price falls significantly below intrinsic value. Of course one needs deep knowledge to understand the intrinsic value and nobody wants to gain that.

Hi Yogesh, Thanks for the honest feedback. I will think of my expectation from each stock and will post it in next few days. You are right that I invested on some of the companies since I found them good on financial parameters and assuming price will go up in future. I know I have to think more in reasoning on why I am investing in a company and why price will increase in future. Also I know it will be difficult to think about expectation since it need more analysis about the company. But it will help in identifying right stocks. Again thanks for your feedback.

The risk you have quoted are 1) Margins 2) EV.

The second one could be an opportunity as Fame 2 draft seems to favour hybrids and that is good news for Suzuki if it is passed.
For risk #1, why do you think margins have declined? They used to just earn 6 odd % NPM few years back. It has been increasing slowly. Since Auto stocks are seasonal, looking at QoQ margins may be misleading. If you have any data to suggest that margins will shrink in the future , then it becomes a valid risk.

Margin I am still seeing a risk since all the companies are coming up car in all variants like hatchback, sedan, suv. I remember few years back people used to buy only Maruti cars. But things have changed now. Other companies are coming up with good models and people are buying other company car as comparative to Maruti. I am not saying Maruti will not be #1 in car industry. It will be number 1 considering - easily availability of spare parts, Maruti is still preferred car in tier2 cities. But their margin will shrink as other companies bring their models. e.g. Mahindra came up with XUV300 recently. I believe it will boost Mahindra sales in SUV segment and Maruti will be impacted due to this.

About EV, I know Maruti(Suzuki) is doing partnership with Toyota on electric cars. But still electric cars will be a risk until Maruti comes up with electric cars. Till then, it will be a risk.

Margins in my opinion does not need to be impacted just because a competitor introduces a new model. There is a new launch every year and we have see it in the last few decades. XUV300 was just launched this month and it will take few months to see how it sells. Nevertheless our market is big enough for more than 2 players. Brezza was selling 10k to 15k before launch of Nexon and it has not changed after over a year. This does not mean margins went down after launch of Nexon. In fact people are buying more of V and Z variants now than before and these have higher margins. Discounts increase when a model grows old and that is always true for any car. The frequency of refresh has increased to reduce impact of discount.

The impact on margin is possible if Suzuki is unable to offer new models/ face lifts to combat discounts. However I see more frequent updates in the next 2 years. In fact 2020 norms helps cost advantage for MSIL which could be a blessing in disguise.

1 Like

Hi @Yogesh_s I have added expectations column for most of the stocks especially where i have medium to high conviction. I know this is not perfect. But my first attempt to add reasoning on why i think stock will go up. Some of the company like yes bank, rain industries were opportunistic buy as you mentioned which I bought because they were available cheap. But I dont have any solid reasons why they go up.

Mistakes - I want to acknowledge mistakes that I made in last one year.

  1. Jindal Steel and Power - I bought this one year ago by just looking at the price and friend’s recommendation. This stock almost double from my buy price around 160 to 290. But I didn’t sell. It came back to 130. I got knowledge about the company in that time and understood that it is not a good company and cyclical business. Good thing is that my conviction is still high on the turnaround of the business. But the reason why I bought this stock was wrong.
  2. Rain Industry - bought by following other know investor. I assumed they might have looked at the business and there is no harm in cloning specially price came to 170. But it keep on falling down and came to 90 recently. Business was good in past. But it is not good anymore considering ban by suprement court on import of green petroleum coke. Now I am confused if I should buy more to average out considering promoters Mr Jagan Reddy are good or book losses. Lesson learnt - dont follow anyone blindly specially if it is not a blue chip. Mirza international is another example. But it is just 1% of my portfolio.
  3. Bharat Electronics - Again like JSPL, i started buying 1 year back from 195(peak price) and averaged down to 130.During one year, i understood the business. It is good considering it is the only company in defense. But not excellent company since it is govt company. I still have high conviction on this. But not at price of 190 or 130. 70-80 is a good price. But I can’t average it more since it is already around 10% of my portfolio. Lesson learnt was that dont buy good company at any price.
  4. CPSE ETF/Bharat 22ETF - bought them in ignorance with FPO. I am waiting for them to come to buy price and will sell then. Lesson learnt - dont buy ETF. Buy food quality blue chips only

Learnings -

  1. Dont buy any company at any price. Blue chip company could be bought on dips. They might not come to the intrinsic value(still need to figure it out on how to calculate it. Currently relying on one excel from safal niveshak).
  2. Buy stocks of current PE is around 10 year average PE(only applicable for blue chip or good companies). Risky/experimental companies should be bought at very low price probably single digit PE. This might fail for companies like Rain where PE was still already 3-4 and stock is still going down.
  3. Buy business when you have some understanding(atleast high level). Keep building your knowledge and buy more stocks as you build more knowledge. I bought many other business like M&M, SBI, Coal India without knowing them(still dont know them. But I will sell them since I dont like those businesses anymore).

I have learnt a lot from value pickr in last one year. If anyone see stocks that I posted in my first thread and my ideal portfolio, I have learnt a lot(still learning and need to learn more). There are excellent investors/gurus for person like me whose advise is always invaluable to new investors. I dont have words to express my gratitude. Please keep guiding us so that we can correct our mistakes in future too and learn from you.
Thanks @Yogesh_s @hitesh2710 @dineshssairam for providing your feedback to all the investors.

3 Likes