Nexavar - Any idea on whats the US market sales of Nexavar in either CY2019 or YTD CY2020? As per Bayer’s latest quarterly, sales in USA are declining because of strong competition (most likely from competing & better efficacy drugs)
https://www.bayer.com/sites/default/files/bayer-ag-quarterly-statement-q3-2020.pdf
Imbruvica - as per latest quarterly of ABBVie, US sales for 9M were $3.14 Bn so annual runrate for US market is ~$4.2 Bn.
https://investors.abbvie.com/static-files/ee4ada89-b004-4b3b-a697-cdc9abe0844c
as per this article, competition is expected to increase from competing drugs - The top 10 drugs by sales increase in 2020
Revlimid - given volume-limited settlements, efforts from BMS would be to control the price erosion and make price erosion more gradual till 2026. Though, very difficult to predict how this all will play out. here is a snippet from their latest concall.
full transcript - Celgene Nov 2020 cc.pdf (445.7 KB)
In FY23, assuming 8% market share of Natco/Allergan, and 40% fall in prices of the drug from current levels so $4.8Bn market opportunity, no volume increase for Revlimid in next 2 years, and 30% profit share of Natco, Revlimid can add 400Cr in PBT. And the same can increase to ~800Cr by FY25 assuming 60% price erosion and 23% market share of Natco/Allergan by then.
Positive surprises could be - volumes growth of Revlimid which has been growing strong at 10-15% yoy, lesser price erosion, more than 30% profit share of Natco
Risks to this calculation - higher price erosion, the declining market for Revlimid (could be because of newer competing drugs).
However, if price erosion is limited to 20% in the first year, and gradually increase to 40% by 3rd year then PBT contribution from Revlimid could be 500cr in the first year and 1100Cr in the 3rd/FY25 year (could be the peak profit year from Revlimid’s perspective). This is all an excel exercise and reality may be completely different 