There a lot of ifs and buts, in the end index has worked for a long time as they continue to change the index constituents.
Many retirement and passive investors pour money into index linked funds
All that money has to move the market, individual stocks have and will always outperform and underperform, there is no wisdom in stating the obvious
For liquidity injection only the net matters not the total. On the net, Fed has this last 2 weeks reduced qt that usually puts downward pressure on s&p and liquidity injection or tightening has a lag of 1 week-10 days on s&p, we will know by then
We might be in the last phases of this bear market, and probably the October low was the low for this bear market
Recession hasnât even set in yet. So there may be more pain coming in the coming months. Market wonât go linear in either direction. There will always be small counter trends in a longer up or down trend.
Talking about index funds, I believe itâs a stress free way to make wealth in the long run. But I can bet, historical returns on index funds are not going to carry on in the future.
Why? itâs because US economy had simply, the best last century. I think itâs a bias towards different countries and economies. What if thatâs not the case in the next century?
Passive investing is more a bet on the whole countryâs economy than a single company.
Note that NASDAQ100 has a large proportion operating in the global economy, a smaller portion US only.
This is the reason I chose this particular index,not SandP etc which are available at ridiculously lower.
Secondly, note my Timeframe is essentially perpetuity. Kind of backyard money garden.
Betting that US economy may flatlinr for next several decades is a bold call, entire global economy will flatlinr for decades⌠Even bolder. If that happens, we are all royally screwed anyways⌠Honestly, I have seen many naysayers of index funds⌠A lot of fundies make a killing with occasional flashy returns, but charging a cool fee. They donât want gravy train stopping, Cathy wood etf claims off index investing as her USP,enuf said
Thanks for all your valuable perspectivesâŚ
When you say âlarge proportion operating in the global economyâ
Do you mean most of the constituent have ex-US revenue exposure or do you mean there is a large portion of the revenue comes from ex-US economy ?
I was not able to find the revenue break up by geography. Do you have any info on that ?
I would like to add another though stretched but plausible option to the list.
First assumption is that taking into account all tax and other costs (also time needed to track portfolio companies) associated with investment, economically itâs not a profitable option to invest in US direct equity with a few thousand dollars.
Say a HNI starts with an investment of at least half a million dollars and makes it big in the next few years by Godâs grace after surviving a brutal bear market (eg. that we are in now) and death. In such a case, if the person wants then he/she could either liquidate or take a loan against portfolio stocks to apply for EB-5 Visa (minimum investment requires $800K) and get the coveted green card in a couple of years time (way better than obtaining a GC with other usual available options). That way the person and family could avoid US estate tax forever:)
Otherwise I donât see any justification to invest in US direct equities given the risks involved with it. It should only be taken as high risk and high reward option.
There are many reasons to invest in US markets compared to other markets like Australia, U.K. or India
Anyone can invest. Brings lot of money on the table plus liquidity as US is a large economy
Data is most relevant. You get what you buy. Cpi, fed balance sheet, employment figures etc are captured and religiously printed which makes analysis for those who rely on macro, a bit easier
Options, you can buy options for anything, any expiry, any strike. Risk management becomes easier. You can buy options even on vix
Insider information although probably still leaked has arguably the most scrutiny compared to anywhere else. Again makes trading a level playing field
Indexes can be traded 23 hours a day. There is a break of one hour. Risk management is easy. There is a calamity and you want to protect your assets, sell S&P futures.
Returns during bull market are truly mind boggling if youâre in the right stock or you can even buy leaps
There are many other reasons, for instance reporting is easy, no red tape around level of fdi, except probably take over of military companies. Many others I canât even list, technicals for instance work better, algorithms can be easily tested as liquidity wonât be a problem
One can buy millions worth of position in S&P without per transaction limit and with liquidity to make the trade happen without a big effect on price
Also if you have a reasonable amount and start a limited company with you as main shareholder, I think there is no inheritance tax as a company never dies.
If youâre in the 100k bracket, hire a usa tax accountant to either start a usa company or Indian company with tax advice from US
I am not a tax advisor, please anyway still do your research before investing
I started investing in US equities directly from Aug 2021. My exchange rate was about Rs. 74.5/$ that time.
Right now, my portfolio is up 8% since inception. But, with the exchange rate jump to Rs. 82/$. Thatâs amounts to extra 10% return on my investment, which makes it worth it.
With US equities, I get a usual 4% appreciation of currency inflation every year over and above the returns I make.
Another benefit, the way the brokers present the any companyâs information. You can check insights of any US stock on the fly and can make a quick judgement on the stock. Itâs way better than screener.in.
Just as the bear market started, to now, if your portfolio is up 8%, you have done exceptionally well !
Please do share your portfolio
Rupee will continue to orderly depreciate as itâs in the interest of Indian companies and one of the legitimate ways for governments to subsidise exporters
I am not sure if the below will work to âdeferâ capital gains tax to next year
Have 2 accounts, wife and yours
Assumption: June/May contracts for equity/gold
In 1st account - buy gc /sell es
2nd account- buy es / sell gc
Before year end
If risk assets are up:
1st account- book loss on es, sell nq
2nd account-book loss on gc, sell tn
The correlation on assets swapped on loss booking might not be 100% but you want to hold them until the new tax year so the risk probably is for a day or 2
This merely pushes your taxes into next year. I trade with interactive brokers so the margins are net exposure
I donât know how legit it is likely to be but at face value I donât see a problem although Iâm not a tax accountant. Probably most tax accountants might not be certain what will happen should the tax man scrutinise your return
Gc: gold futures
Tn: treasury notes futures
Nq: nasdaq futures
Es: S&P futures
My portfolio was 13% down too during the october lows last year. But, it recovered well. S&P is still bearish and itâs at a very crucial point as of now.
I have only 5 stocks in my US Portfolio (Not a recommendation):
Meta
Google
Comcast
Disney
Mesa Labs
Why I invested in these particular stocks?
I have no IT stocks in my Indian portfolio. I believe, US is still the best when it comes to innovation in tech. (Meta and Google)
I have no exposure in entertainment businesses in Indian Portfolio. It just doesnât excite me! So I took the 2 best entertainment stocks (Comcast and Disney)
I have no exposure in Pharma/Healthcare/Medical Manufacturing in Indian Portfolio. Mesa Labs is a bet on that sector.
My Indian Portfolio is more focused on Financial Sector. I am just amazed by how far India has come in the financial sector.
Been only investing in cash and no sales of stocks at all. 2 years down the line, I am about $61K up on investment of $290 K to date which is a total of $351K
Returns of 61K over 290K plus an approximate 12% currency depreciation means a total of 30% return ni 2 years (it is actually more because I invested half in 2021 and other half in 2022)
Funnily, the high P/E stocks have given phenomenal return and the low P/E stocks have given junk return (only bummer has been Atlassian)
I believe there is TDS on stock purchase of 5%(foreign remittence) earlier which will be increased to 20%. So, you paid 5% on your investments then ? @rkirana
