ValuePickr Forum

My top 5 picks

**I am KID in a market.
**

**I am not posting top 5 picks for recommendation purpose.
**

I am posting them for getting feedback.

** Have good experience of loosing money in market. ****so be cautious :)**

**LT Stocks (not part of my portfolio as they are expensive and maybe will remain expensive): **

HDFC bank )- Simply best and will stay here atleast for 100 years :slight_smile:

Titan Industries )- As pointed out by management they will be BIG lifestyle retailer over long term. So not good to think it as Jwellery company.

Godrej Industries )- Tomorrows big unlisted agri company under it(~70%) Godrej Agrovet

Coal India )- After Oil, Coal is another major source of Energy and coal india has big coal reserves.

GCPL )- I think of this as Major global FMCG comapny over long term.

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**Sound(part of my portfolio):
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__**Yes Bank **(all banks going down so good to pick up this at PB of 2)

Delta Corp (Market cap of 2K cr is nothing for first entrant in casino industry in country known for its tourism and black money)

Bajaj electricals (Good managment; short term earnings may not be good; infra dept burning cash; this is my top consumer bet)

**Bilcare **(Good mgmt; Pledging issue)

**Zydus wellness **(Market of 2.2K cr is not expensive for company introducing lot of new healthy products in a country with 120 cr peoples with growing middle class people)

Contrania bets(not in my portfolio but in my watchlist):

Dhanlaxmi bank ( Hitesh Bhai :slight_smile: ) - market of 600 cr for public bank in a country with safe banks

**Shree Ganesh Jwellery **(Manish bhai :slight_smile: ) - 5K sales with 50 years of experience

**Indiabulls real estate **)- 2.95 shares of power subsidary

COX & KING )- Recentely RJ purchased Sterlite resorts as he expects over decade 1cr couples as its customer. In short he is betting on tourism. But, if over long term Rupee appreciates against dollor and euro, then I believe trips to Europe and US will become cheaper and hence tour operators is great sector. Kesari is best company in this segment but its unlisted. So COX and KINg will be good choice. Also Prof.Mankekar has some stakes into it.

**Orchid Chemicals **)-- could be great bet if able to resolve pledging and FCCB issue. Today read somewhere that if stock price of company (with pledging by promoters) is falling and promoters pledging more shares then that is bad signal as to avoid TRIGGER then are pledging more shares.

Great to see seniors like Manish Kulkarni, Subbu, Hitesh, Vivek over here. Now it is upto Donald to retain these members and make forum active. There should atleast 50 posts per day. This forum deserves this. Maybe Donald you can start Valuepickr meet where members can meet offline Or through conference etc

Just a personal advice without substantiating it. Stay away from Shree Ganesh Jewellery House irrespective of how attractively priced you find it.

Added Arshiya International to my watchlist.

Huge $7.5billion capex lined up for next 3-5 years.

They are building huge logistic infra though huge debt. But knowing that they will generate huge cashflow in future I think debt should not be problem. Its becauze of huge debt :equity of 3:1, its cheaplyavailableat lower PE

Zydus Wellness is a great company. But at todays valuation it is priced almost 10 times the sales, very steep and may not deliver great return (based on idea of Ken Fisher, Super Stocks), even if everything goes as planned. In new segments the company has not been able to do anything spectacular like sugarfree.

Hi

I had also been enamored by zydus wellness these last few days. Main argument was about the market cap and the opportunity size. market cap is around 2200 crores and opportunity for their products is practically upwards of 2000-3000 crores in terms of sales.

But looking at the valuations they seem very steep. Consensus estimates for fy 12 and fy 13 in terms of eps are around 19 and 25 respectively. So even on fy 13 eps this is available at around 23 times PE. Now this might be the norm with other FMCG companies, but this one has to prove itself especially in the newest product Actilife. If that becomes a success soon (I expect it to take some time to take off-- plenty of competition here and lots of peers with early mover advantage) then there might be a lot of positive surprises.

On the flip side, it is likely to face stiff competition especially in the everyuth brand where hind unilever and some other biggies like garnier etc are launching similar product ranges. Nutralite and Sugarfree seem like runaway winners and might be difficult for others to catch.

Something closer to 500 or below could be a great price to get in provided the growth momentum continues. Promoter pedigree is top notch.

Whats your view on
1)Arshiya International. Huge Debt & ambitious plans. But positive is FTWZ is fixed cost high margin business. Whats ur view on it?
2)Jubliant Industries
3)Globus Spirits
4)Bilcare -> Really dont know why it is making 52 week low. Recent acqusition should boost their revenue multiple times.They should also comfortably manage their debt from cash generated
5)Orchid Chem -> In last few months Dr.Poonawala has increased its stake in company, as per disclosure on BSE.If pledging is only issue, is it not worth betting at this low valuation?

Hi Sandeep,

Will be very grateful if you couldgive some reasons for your negative outlook on the stock.

Thanks in advance!

Warm regards,

stockstalker

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hi

I think they will have serious issues on growth in the medium term as most of their core categories are not really main stream. It remains to be seen how this company scales up. I remain cautious with valuation full blown like much more sucesful FMCG cos already.

Hi

I

** sales.But **

** surprises.On **

** catch.Something **

notch.

**

Although most of your picks wont be on my active radar, yet Bajaj Electricals looks the best one out there.

Also, how does an Axis compare with HDFC Bank? Axis is looking mire attractive compared to HDFC Bank…however, presently I am only accumulating Standard Chartered IDR among the banking stocks.