My portfolio updates and investment journey

[viewfar]

Thanks much for your response. I focused on the competition the most because thats where the battle is going to be. Who’s got the best model / platform and how much of the business are they going to get ? That and margins going forward. How do new entrants impact PB’s margins. How much of disruption…and how does PB react - remains to be seen.

If you feel first mover advantage is big and PB has a good enough platform to scale, good management, good strategy, I feel now is a good time to enter and hold for the next few years… There are going to be bumps especially around JioFin and BimaSugam’s entry but the pie is big enough I think.

@joinjp2003

[joinjp2003]

not sure how it adds value but here it is, excluding dividends:
all to date is from 2016, source is mprofit so totally dependent on their accuracy of calculations)

[joinjp2003]

Portfolio Update
Asset allocation

For the first time in last 2-years equity allocation crossed 60%, a jump from 49% in May -2024. Rise in equity allocation is reflection of portfolio performance in last 15 months and deployment of cash/REIT money to equity in dips.

Equity Portfolio:

2025, has been a totally unstable year, instability started from 2nd half of 2024. Mindset is different, I feel I am away from my investment philosophy.

What I like, - I like to concentrate in few positions (12-15) along with some upcoming/R&D bets (6-8).

What I am doing: Given the market texture/height I have now few “scared bets” (low growth reasonable valuations – CSB Bank, Kalamandir, South Indian Bank, Tamiland Mercantile Bank), few “fomo bets” (CDMO bucket – Neuland, Cohance, Piramal, BlueJet, OneSource) and few “need to be there bets” (AMCs, exchanges). Overall result is 37 positions, I think highest in the last 5-years.

For 8 years (2016 to Mid of 2024) my cumulative buys were 185 stocks, however, in last 15 months (June-2024 to Aug-2025), I have bought 168 stocks. Insane activity.

Material new entries (>3%) since my last update are: Unicommerce, CSB Bank, and Inventurus Knowledge.

Unicommerce – a Saas company, a proxy to India’s e-commerce and quick commerce as it provides warehouse management services to these companies. Unicommerce also acquired shipway which is into courier/delivery services.

Unicommerce has not grown at all for last few quarters. So my thesis has not played out so far. However, valuations are reasonable at 40PE on FY26 cash earnings. Growth is most important ingredient; I shall wait for next couple of quarters to see if revenue growth at least comes to double digits and hope margin continues to improve.

CSB Bank: Good base loan book with 45% gold loan and most of other loan book is also secured. It has been growing its loan book at 20%+ while maintaining reasonable NPA <2%. Loan book growth from FY27 is likely to pick up to 30% as its IT system implementation allows it to scale retail book and deposits too. At 1.5x P/B with 20% capital ratio, seems reasonable bet.

Inventurus Knowledge: A healthcare tech company with 30% margins, growing at 16-18%. Its platform has widest feature of doing 16 chores which a physician/clinic needs to do. Revenue growth may accelerate to 20% from FY27 owing to ramp up of new clients, pruning of existing clients completes in two quarters. High return metrics (30%+ ROE). Company’s services are highly integrated to its customers, which results in high stickiness, cross selling opportunities. Company earns based on outcome of its customers. IKS improves customer’s profitability by 8-9% post the payment to IKS (almost equal to their ebitda margins pre-IKS). This results in win-win for both client and the company,

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation . I work for an investment advisory firm. My portfolio is not a recommendation for anyone. Some of these stocks might be in clients portfolio as well so please be aware of vested interest.

[Ballaji_Vijayan]

Hi sir - The way you are tracking the win rate and yearly returns are very good and I hope to replicate something similar. Would you mind help me understand how you are tracking them?

1. When you look at failed bets, do you look at price at that point in time or you considered it failed only when you sell them at loss?
2. What is the best way to calculate yearly returns when you have many buys and sells throughout the year? I use some apps’ CAGR approach including the recent Zerodha one but I wish to directly calculate myself and compare with indices if possible to institutively understand. So working on an easy and best approach now. If you do have suggestions, please let me know.

[joinjp2003]

@Ballaji_Vijayan i have subscribed (paid) to mprofit which can be used to extract such information.

1. failed bets are irrespective of booked or not booked
2. my data was xirr (cagr) since inception (2016) which i extracted from mprofit. It is not possible to have (at least i cant) 25%+ return every year. I update my contract notes and mprofit provides this information, however it can provide on annual basis also but i like to see my performance on cumulative cagr basis or you can call it since inception basis
   I have removed return data to avoid confusion.

[Shail1234]

Jai Prakash ji, you were holding Danlaw technologies ? Any input on its current situation? I think its product adoption is the issue or products are not worthy either ? Thank you

[ashutosh13]

Please share your latest portfolio

[joinjp2003]

@Shail1234 I had exited 2-3 years back, not tracking since then.

[Shail1234]

Ok Jai Prakash ji, thank you very much.

[joinjp2003]

Re-cap of 15-years direct stock investing journey (2010-H1-2013)

A very happy new year to fellow VP members.

“One of the best parts of stock picking over 10-20+ years is looking back and seeing how you’ve evolved and knowing what experiences changed you. Every investment experience shapes the next version of you” .

This tweet by Ian Cassel inspired me to pen down my 15 years journey. As I went through, I could see how I evolved as investor. It was nostalgic to go through stock picking and discovery process over the years which threw some fantastic stories like Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Foods, Britannia, Rategain, and Dixon. Also look back threw some disappointments - BSE (yes BSE).

Here is my journey starting from “Stupidity”, evolved currently to “Confusion” and in between some moments of “apun ich Bhagwan hai” (I am God Almighty).

A stupid beginning: 2010- 2011

I started my job in 2006. Everyone was talking about stock markets from last 2-3 years. My colleagues/seniors asked “kya lagta hai market kaha tak jaayega” (where market will go)? So it was difficult to be away from equity investing. I invested in some mutual funds in 2007. Direct stock investing began in 2010.

• In 2010, I was staying on rent and my owner used to collect rent on 6 months basis. I opened Demat account to deploy this money for 5-6 months to earn some returns.
• Initial investing thesis was mainly based on value. I used to look for cheap stocks on PE and/or P/B basis or beaten down stocks
• My entry in stock markets was based on unrealistic return expectations:

Here is snapshot of my research summary in 2011. I have no idea how I expected 12x returns in Cals Refinery and 5x returns in Ester Industries and Agre Developers (Big Bazaar group).

• Broker reports: With access to Thomson Reuters’ terminal in office, I read a UBS report which called Lanco one of the best executors. Feeling privileged and ahead of others, I invested heavily in Lanco and kept averaging down even as the stock kept falling. I also averaged on Onmobile which was continuously falling.
• Intra-day: A colleague introduced me to momentum-based intraday trading. Beginner’s luck brought quick gains in the first few trades, but lack of thought on position sizing and timing led to heavy losses later, losses were huge, so brokers used to auction my other holdings to recover dues.
• Averaging down: At some point I took huge bet on Onmobile global with thought process that mobile will be very important, and everything will be done on mobile. In hindsight, I was right but not on the stock.

By end of 2011 I had lost all my money saved from company bonus and regular savings. Lost huge on Lanco and Onmobile averaging and few other bets.

Illusion of control: 2012-H1-2013

• I bought Arshiya International in 2011 after listening to a reputed fund manager on CNBC. I bought it as it had strong historical results.
• My research: As time went by, I researched more. I noted that this industry (FTWZ) was huge in Middle East. I listened to/or read transcript of earnings call. I made my own detailed financial model based on capex and expansion plans. I expected the earnings to grow multi-fold and expected stock to reach 500 in three years from my entry in 100-125 range.
• Single stock portfolio: The mirage of my detailed work and time & efforts made me think that I am in control. This led me to sell everything else and focus only on this company. Single stock portfolio with dream of making 4-5x money in 2-3 years.

In January 2013, news on Arshiya: employees’ alleged of not been paid, many people fired without adequate notice etc.

My first instinct was to sell shares immediately. I think I was able to exit with 5-6% loss. However, stock fell 90% in the next 3 months. I was lucky to be on top of news and sell. Imagine portfolio being down 90% in 3 months.

In hindsight I was overlooking basics like leverage, share pledge, auditor red flags etc. I was weaving my own fairy tale in excel, maybe got help from management too.

Break

I stepped away from investing for few months. I decided to buy a house and used my savings to book a house. My parents helped me with some down payment. I took home loan for the rest of the amount. This was huge mental burden of regular EMIs and outstanding loan.

I pondered; I was determined that by the time all the sanctioned amount is disbursed over 3-4 years, I will grow my savings to 60-80% of home loan principal amount.

This needed, 1. extreme savings, 2. decent returns (10-12%) with some capital protection. So, I decided to invest in trusted groups like Tata, Bajaj, Birla and Mahindra etc. Also, I decided to keep my portfolio very diversified.

[satyajitpatra2005]

Great! and then? :) some more please

[joinjp2003]

Re-cap of 15-years direct stock investing journey - Part 2

Second Innings: 2014 to 2020

A new innings began, I started investing in well-known groups (quality), easy to understand businesses at SIP mode and kept reasonable return expectation

• I filled the portfolio with Tata’s (tata global beverages, tata coffee), Birlas (AB Nuvo, Grasim), Mahindra’s (Mahindra Holidays), Bajaj (Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Electricals), Britannia, and many more from such trusted groups/largecaps/MNCs (Blue Dart, Cadila Health – Zydus group, Apollo Hospitals etc.
• Most of these were easy to understand businesses
• Diversified the portfolio to 25-30 stocks.
• All these stocks were added in SIP mode on monthly basis
• Realistic expectations of 10-12% returns

2014: Kinder markets, kinder outcome

Modi wave turned the things around as portfolio did well post transition in 2013.

Top bets

• Bajaj Electricals (8%): It was mainly a turnaround bet; company was reporting losses due to its Engineering projects division. Its other businesses (consumer durable and lighting) were profitable and doing well. Given it was Bajaj and we used its products I thought of betting on its turnaround. It did well with 56% returns in the year.
• Bajaj Finserv (8%): Rationale shared here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #6 by joinjp2003. Stock gave 22% returns, in hindsight this was just a beginning.
• Tata Global (7%) : Main reason to buy Tata Global was its JV with Starbucks. I had followed Starbucks in US market and it did really well so I thought of playing it through Tata Global in India. It was a painful large position as stock did not do well during my holding period (12-18 months).
• Yes Bank (6%) : An opportunistic bet as Fed tantrum (to end QE) in 2013 led all the banks to fall by 30-50% in short period of time. Yes Bank had also fallen from 100 to 50 so I bought to play a rebound. It was growing at high rates 40%+ with NPAs largely under control. It really worked well as it was up 41%.
• Britannia (6%) : it was the only FMCG available below 30PE vs. all other 50+. I was consuming Britannia biscuits, and Britannia’s product basket was wide. It also had leading market share in biscuits category.
• PVR (6%): I noted many youngsters watching movies in theatres now. Me and my wife also started going for movies often. This investment was simply a reflection of what I saw and experienced firsthand and asking where are the crowds?. That led me to buy the stock.
• Cadila Health (Zydus Lifesciences) (6%) : Whole pharma sector was doing well during this time. However, Cadila had not done anything from 2011 to 2103, so absence of run up in the stock and reasonable valuations enticed me. Slowly I built position as I improved my understanding. I had no courage to understand other pharma companies and this complex sector. One key factor which I liked was that Cadila had launched one drug (Lipaglyn) which was first time in India and cost wise it was cheapest. So, I thought company is good in innovation/R&D so loaded up in 2014 and 2015.

Portfolio composition in mid-2014:

	H1-2013	2014
Top 5 positions	100%	35%
Top 10 positions	100%	62%
Total #stocks	1	30

Portfolio as of mid-2014 (BFSI* – 32%) (estimated returns +20%)

*BFSI: Banking, financial services and insurance

Name	Sector	Industry	% return till 12/06/2014	Current port mix
BAJAJELEC	Consumer durables	Cyclical	56%	8%
BAJAJ FINSER	Insurance	Semi-cyclical	22%	8%
TATA GLOBAL	Food & bev	Defensive	7%	7%
YESBANK LTD	Banking	Cyclical	41%	6%
BRITANIA IN	Food & bev	Defensive	3%	6%
PVR LTD	Media	Semi-cyclical	5%	6%
CADILA HEALT	Pharma	Defensive	15%	6%
IDFC LTD.	Banking	Cyclical	20%	5%
MAX INDIA	Insurance	Semi-cyclical	45%	5%
ZEELEARN	Education	Defensive	20%	5%
TREE HOUSE	Education	Defensive	33%	4%
CARE RATING	Services	Cyclical	24%	4%
MCX LTD	Services	Defensive	5%	4%
NMDC LTD	Mining	Cyclical	20%	4%
OBEROI REAL	Real estate	Cyclical	17%	4%
COAL INDIA	Coal	Semi-cyclical	37%	3%
TATA COFFEE	Food & bev	Defensive	-2%	3%
PETRONET LNG	Gas distribution	Defensive	18%	3%
ZYDUSWELL	FMCG	Defensive	9%	3%
GUJ PETRONE	Gas distribution	Defensive	24%	2%
INDRA PRSGAS	Gas distribution	Defensive	17%	1%
MHRIL	Leisure	Semi-cyclical	17%	1%
Others				4%

2015: Validation by performance

The new approach was getting validated with good returns in the last 18-24 months. Gradually, I reduced the number of stocks in my portfolio from 30 to 20, reflecting build-up of some confidence.

Portfolio continued to do well with big winners in 2015 being Dish TV, Britannia, Cadila Healthcare (now Zydus Lifesciences) and Bajaj Finserv.

Bajaj Finserv rationale is shared earlier in valuepickr thread: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #6 by joinjp2003

Top bets

Disht TV (11%)

I bought Dish TV to play DTH (direct to home) theme in India as government mandated to have full mandatory Cable TV Digitization by 2017/2018. Dish TV was a key listed player with leading market share.

Netflix story – As Netflix was getting hugely popular in USA, I had to come up with a reasoning why it will not work in India. So my reasons were:

1. Subscription plan for Netlflix was INR 500 per month vs, DTH player subscription plan starting from 200 per month.

2. For Netflix high speed broadband is required which needed additional 800-1000 rs per month. So total cost for Netflix streaming would be 1300-1500 per month vs. cable TV below 500 for all channels.

3. Rural markets can’t have broadband.

These reasons looked legit at least on cost and infrastructure basis. However, where we stand today as of 2025/26:

• Subscription plan for Netflix is now 300 per month in line or below vs. DTH players.
• Broadband bandwidth is abundant and per GB cost would have come down by 50-80% since then
• Entertainment bucket widened from just traditional TV channels – both Rural and Urban markets now enjoy data on mobile phone so they watch Netflix on phone and also there is somewhat increased broadband penetration.

Investor returns: Netflix used to trade at USD5 per share in 2105, now at 90+ (18x in 12 years) and Dish used to trade at 50-55 now at 4 (90% fall). Value migration and disruption?

Off course Dish had its own corporate gov challenges, but similar story played out in some other DTH/broadband players like Den Networks, Hathway Cable, Sun TV (not decimated but not even created).

I have shared this story to show how “we under-estimate the change”. Also its worth noting that disruption in business may happen later but destruction in share price will be faster.

MCX (10%)

MCX was the second largest holding with 10% allocation. Key rationale was that it could grow its revenue by 10x without any additional investments. Also, it was coming out of sharp decline in 2013 owing to NSEL default crisis. Market share of 90%+ meant government can’t afford it to fail (based on my banking experience of too big to fail or systemic importance logic). Also hedging activities were under-penetrated in India vs. globe.

Onmobile (9%)

I re-entered Onmobile after booking huge losses in 2011-13. By this time company had fallen to 30-40 rs from high of 100 in 2011. Promoter was buying stake through open offer, and it did some buyback. Company had cash of about 40% of market cap. I thought of buying it again with hope of turnaround and cash cushion. I don’t think company ever turned around but I made decent gains of 37%.

Portfolio composition in early 2015

	H1-2013	2014	2015
Top 5 positions	100%	35%	48%
Top 10 positions	100%	62%	80%
Total #stocks	1	30	20

Portfolio in early 2015 (BFSI – 43%) (estimated returns +29%)

Name	Returns	Portfolio mix
DISHTV	41%	11%
MCX	11%	10%
CADILAHC	31%	10%
ONMOBILE	37%	9%
BAJAJFINSV	53%	8%
CARERATING	11%	7%
ZEELEARN	10%	7%
YESBANK	47%	6%
ICICIBANK	-4%	6%
FEDERALBNK	-1%	6%
PVR	4%	5%
BRITANNIA	153%	5%
TREEHOUSE	21%	4%
MHRIL	-14%	3%
PFS	-3%	1%
APOLLOHOSP	3%	1%
ICRA	0%	0%
IPCALAB	0%	0%
NAUKRI	1%	0%

2016: Interruption

During H1 of the year, I had to exit many financial stocks like Bajaj Finserv in 2016 due to compliance reasons.

Aditya Birla Nuvo : Luckily, I was able to invest in Aditya Birla Nuvo as it was classified in miscellaneous sector category. AB Nuvo was available at 75% holding discount to its investments. My main thesis was that its financial subsidiary (AB Capital) is a priced asset which market was not be valuing much. Owing to compliance related selling in other stocks, I concentrated quite a bit on stock as it continued to go up. Stock doubled within one year as it announced demerger of financial services business. Until 2016, this was my biggest win in terms of absolute amount that too in a short time (<12 months). This was also a luck as such corporate actions within such short time is difficult to get.

In H2 of 2016, I was able to re-invest in financial stocks. However, I sold couple of companies as I found something fishy about them. Just capturing them here for reference:

• Tree House :
  • Company never shared any plan how they will use 200 crore cash on balance sheet
  • On one side promoter was buying shares on other side it was pledging shares
• Yes Bank :
  • In September 2016, Yes Bank announced a QIP and pulled it for a technical reason. I was not satisfied with reason given by then CEO - Rana Kapoor. So, I decided to sell.
  • Already UBS was alleging lower NPAs reported by the bank vs. its exposure to kind of groups it had.
  • Yes Bank was growing its loan book 2-3x of system level growth and was reporting very low NPAs when whole system was reporting higher NPAs with steady loan growth.

I do not have portfolio data for this year.

FY18 – Influence of investment gurus

Investment philosophy

Broadly during this time period, I was influenced by Raamdeo Agarwal sir’s QGLP framework and Peter Lynch’s “buy what you know”. I also liked Ramesh Damani’s philosophy of – when you find something good, “back up the truck” (recently got to know it was Charlie Munger’s quoter).

Peter Lynch said buy what you know. I took it to next level “buy what you see”. Hence, I bought Borosil as I could see it a lot in Big Bazaar (India’s leading retail chain during that time), I could see many of Aditya Birla’s Fashion brands in malls as well as I could see MacDonands (Westlife). These also fit well in QGLP framework.

This was a year when many of my colleagues and friends started talking about stocks. After 2006 may be this was the period when I heard so many people talking about stocks. They were like did you see X, that one has gone up 3 times, did you see Y that has gone up 5 times. Unfortunately, I had no multibaggers, portfolio was positive (+7%) but not much.

A note of small win: I moved to my new house in April 2017. My equity portfolio exceeded the home loan principal amount by almost 30% by March 2018. An extreme focus on savings helped a lot as returns were moderate.

Big wins and top bets

Bajaj Finserv (21%) continued to play anchor role with 21% allocation and decent returns.

Note: Bajaj Finserv’s returns in the table look low as I had to sell Bajaj Finserv in early 2016 owing to compliance. I re-entered the stock in second half of 2016.

Care Ratings (15%) was second largest bet (not a big win yet). Coming from a credit-rating background, I understood the business well. It is a highly sticky, asset-light business with near-zero incremental investment requirements. At that time, India’s corporate bond market was still under-developed, offering significant long-term potential, especially with the government/RBI actively working to deepen bond markets. Care’s dividend yield and valuations were attractive compared with MNC peers such as ICRA and CRISIL.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (14%)

Somehow, I could envision that life insurance industry will grow in 15-18% range for a decade and PAT growth could be 20-22%. Taking a leaf from how US and some European companies became giants over the years. I believed if you own an Insurance company then your retirement shall be taken care of. I have not been able to fully understand this bias/bullishness yet.

Edelweiss Financial Services (10%): Amit Jeswani, a passionate fund manager, of Stallion talked about Edelweiss. Then I researched it and found it cheap at 13x PE and 2x P/B while earnings growth was 30-40%. Cherry on top was its ARC business where upside was supposed to be very high.

Westlife Foodworld (10%)

MacDonalds was strongest brand in QSR after Domino’s. Company was growing steadily and was improving margins. I was attracted by opening up of McCafe, which was adjacency to its burger business. I thought this will driven revenue and margins. A QGLP and Peter Lynch (buy what you know) bet.

Borosil (10%)

I heard from friend Borosil ka hai kuch nahi hoga (it Borosil nothing will happen) “in context of putting glass bowl in oven”.

Then I saw Borosil displayed in many stores/hypermarkets, my company gifted us Borosil tiffins. Hence, there was enough evidence of increased use and trust on these products. I started researching (read annual report), found some related party issues. However, over the years management addressed them and son of the promoter started changing lot of things in the company. From trader they became manufacturers, they increased product basket to opalware through acquisition of “Larah”. As company gained market share and revenues, I increased my bet.

Special mention - Hindustan Foods

This was a year when Hindustan Foods entered my portfolio – rationale already available in thread here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #3 by joinjp2003

As I also wanted to be around my circle of competence – BFSI sector accounted for 69% of my portfolio.

Portfolio composition

Portfolio was highly concentrated with 10 stocks. Top 5 accounted for 70% of portfolio. BFSI sector accounted for 69% of my portfolio.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18*
Top 5 positions	100%	35%	48%	70%
Top 10 positions	100%	62%	80%	100%
Total #stocks	1	30	20	10

*FY18 means period from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018

Portfolio as of March 2018 (FY18) (BFSI – 69%) (XIRR +7%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Bajaj Finserv	32.72%	21%
CARE Ratings	-16.77%	15%
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company	-3.70%	14%
Edelweiss Financial Services	70.84%	10%
Westlife Foodworld	39.59%	10%
Borosil	24.71%	10%
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail	0.02%	9%
Aditya Birla Capital	-16.89%	7%
Hindustan Foods	4.55%	2%
BSE Ltd	-4.53%	2%

FY19 – Calmness in a year of chaos

This was first year when I noted portfolio names were pretty much same as last year. Only weights changed due to performance of individual stocks.

This was my year. All my friends and colleagues vowed never to touch small caps again. Thanks to Bajaj Finserv at 21% allocation portfolio was in positive territory.

Big Wins: Bajaj Finserv, Westlife Foodworld, Aditya Birla Fashion, and Hindustan Foods did well in a carnage like environment. On absolute basis these stocks ran up 30-40% during the year.

While Care Ratings (down 20%) which I was holding from 3 years with 9 to 15% allocation was a drag on portfolio. Edelweiss (-17%) and BSE (-19%) also caused a drag on portfolio.

I was most bullish on Aditya Birla Capital. I believe on cost basis this must have been my largest bet till date (March 2019).

Portfolio composition

Portfolio continued to reflect my circle of competence – BFSI allocation at 64% and high concentration in 10 stocks. Top 5 stocks accounted for 62% of portfolio with Bajaj Finserv being largest bet at 21%.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19*
Top 5 positions	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%
Top 10 positions	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%
Total #stocks	1	30	20	10	10

*FY19 means period from 1st April 2018 to 31st March 2019

Portfolio as of March 2019 (FY19) (BFSI – 64%) (XIRR +7%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Bajaj Finserv	80.59%	21%
Aditya Birla Capital	-17.14%	12%
Westlife Foodworld	87.00%	10%
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail	46.10%	10%
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company	-13.20%	9%
CARE Ratings	-31.86%	9%
Hindustan Foods	22.27%	9%
Borosil	26.40%	7%
Edelweiss Financial Services	41.83%	6%
BSE Ltd	-10.43%	6%

FY20 – COVID lows

In 2013, I had targeted to achieve a milestone amount by end of 2020. When 2020 arrived, milestone was just 8% away, however by March 2020 it went 45% away due to COVID fall.

This was the time when you don’t want to open your demat account. If anyone says she lost 50% in BSE, please do believe in that. In my portfolio, BSE was down 50%, AB Capital was down 63%, Bajaj finance was down 46%.

Hindustan foods saved some grace with 50% returns during the year with highest allocation in portfolio at 14%.

Reaction to crash : My 90% of net worth was in equity, and net worth declined by 40-50% within 30-40 days. I stood through correction; I did not sell anything.

No need to applause the courage, I was frozen. Such frantic fall did not give much time to think. For example, one of my largest holdings, Bajaj Finserv, fell 50% in 30 odd trading days (20 Feb price of 971 and 450 on 3 April 2020). Everything else was also falling like a rock.

Distraction helped? Question on whether we will survive COVID also kept focus away from portfolio, hence inaction.

Only stock I added during this fall was Oracle Financial Services mainly driven by 12 PE and high dividend yield (4-6%).

Special mentions

Life Insurance companies – HDFC Life, ICICI Pru Life, SBI Life

I was very bullish on Insurance due to structural growth expected driven by increased penetration. It was about 30% of my portfolio. Also, this sector aligned with QGLP framework. I owned HDFC Life, ICICI Prudential Life, and SBI Life. This also kept my BFSI exposure high at 56% of portfolio.

Dixon Technology

This was the year when Dixon Tech made entry into the portfolio. Simple logic to buy Dixon was that it had economies of scale advantage in TVs and few other consumer electronics owing to leading market share and it was available at 40x PE vs. all other listed brand companies were above 50x. I bought it with 15% return expectations. That time mobile manufacturing and PLI story had not taken off.

Account for covid lows

As the portfolio values are taken as of March 2020 (COVID lows) portfolio shows huge pain (down 29%). Anyone who would have seen single digit returns for two years in a row (FY18 and FY19) and then 29% negative returns in third year (2019/20) he would have been scarred for life and/or would have left the stock markets. I just hang in there that too with almost 90% of net worth in equity.

Portfolio composition

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19	FY20*
Top 5 positions	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%
Top 10 positions	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%
Total #stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19

*FY20 means period from 1st April 2019 to 31st March 2020

Portfolio as of March 2020 (FY20) (BFSI – 56%) (XIRR - negative 29%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Hindustan Foods	71.70%	14%
HDFC Life Insurance Company	-2.36%	11%
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company	-11.85%	11%
Bajaj Finserv	-9.94%	9%
Aditya Birla Capital	-63.28%	6%
Oracle Financial Services Software	-10.62%	6%
Westlife Foodworld	37.22%	6%
Dixon Technologies (India)	4.11%	5%
Multi Commodity Exchange of India	12.33%	5%
BSE Ltd	-50.00%	5%
SBI Life Insurance Company	-35.39%	4%
HDFC Bank	-30.22%	3%
Bajaj Finance	-46.40%	3%
Gujarat State Petronet	-17.94%	3%
Titan Company	-19.19%	3%
Grasim Industries	-39.65%	2%
IFB Industries	-59.21%	2%
Borosil	NM	2%
RPSG Ventures	-58.55%	1%

Third innings: 9M2020 to 2023

Earlier I mentioned that “In 2013, I had targeted to achieve a milestone amount by end of 2020. When 2020 arrived, the milestone amount was just 8% away, however by March 2020 it was 45% away due to COVID fall”.

Nevertheless, by the end of December 2020 I had overshot the milestone by 35%. In hindsight, felt the “power of staying invested” and understood why people say inaction/a smaller number of decisions is good. Despite a 40-50% fall in portfolio from peak, I did not sell anything, however I also did not add any real incremental money until my portfolio made a new high in July 2020.

In hindsight I call this year as a year of beginning of third innings. My first innings from 2010 to H12013 was just a stupid start with narrow focus on valuations or beaten down stocks. While second Innings from H2-2013 to H1-2020 was about focus on quality, low expectations, being in circle of competence.

Broad outcome of First innings was huge losses. Second Innings: was a negative 9% CAGR (April 2017 to March 2020), off course it is distorted a bit by COIVD low. Even if I exclude COVID pain period, XIRR was muted at +12.4% (April 2017 to Jan 2020), though in line with my realistic expectations I set earlier.

[james_kerala]

Very interesting read and very informatve to learn many things.

[joinjp2003]

Re-cap of 15-years direct stock investing journey - Part 3

Third Innings: 9M2020 to December 2023

2020 was an inflection year, particularly H2. Once I reached the monetary milestone, I decided to experiment, I decided to allow myself to fail a bit. From 2014 to FY2020, I was cautious as I was coming out of shock like situation. However, reaching the milestone in 2020 allowed me to fail a bit, it allowed me to venture into unknown territories:

1. Outside circle of competence

2. Unknown stocks and small caps

3. New Trends

I ventured into many unknown and small/microcaps like Danlaw, Niyogin, Hindware, Ugro and Xelpmoc.

I also became confident to invest in new IPOs like Affle, Indiamart, Route Mobile etc. I mainly got some sense on growth of digital/internet plays. This also allowed myself to widen the circle of competence from BFSI to other areas.

However, one need to be careful with “willing to fail” as it may be taken too far to – “willing to disaster”. I had started in these unknown territories with very small/negligible allocations.

9M2020: Apr’20 to Dec’20

Dixon Tech: Mobile PLI schemed was announced. I did back of envelop calculation on potential of this being a over 1 lakh crore revenue potential for industry. A 20-30% market share for Dixon Tech would mean 25000- 30,000 crores revenue potential from mobiles only for Dixon. In 2020, Dixon was doing 5000 crores revenues and I said it would do 1 Lakh crores of revenues by 2030. I increased my position in Dixon. Valuations take a backseat when potential revenues can be 20x in 10 years.

Hindustan Foods: Stock more than doubled in 9 months from 120 to 260. The sharp rise made me to trim stock down to below 10% in allocation from 14% earlier.

Affle investment rationale was - value migration of advertising from traditional (TV/Print Media) to digital (apps, smart TV, online media). Also, management guided for 25% growth rate for long time (5 years). I loved the management (Anuj) and their acquisition strategy.

Portfolio composition

Rising prices makes it easy to hold stocks and ramp up quickly. Out of blue, Affle and Indiamart became 8% and 7% respectively in portfolio. It is difficult to build conviction in stock in such short time to have such large allocations. Indiamart tripled in 6 months (from June 2020 to December 2020), and Affle went up 2.5x during same time.

Overall portfolio expanded to 32 stocks from 19.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19	FY20	2020
Top 5	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%	41%
Top 10	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%	70%
#stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19	32

Portfolio as of December 2020 (BFSI – 38%) (9 months XIRR +164%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Bajaj Finserv	54.07%	9%
Hindustan Foods	198.73%	8%
Astec Lifesciences	14.71%	8%
HDFC Life Insurance Company	42.38%	8%
Indiamart Intermesh	70.43%	8%
Dixon Technologies (India)	118.27%	7%
AFFLE 3I	83.12%	7%
HDFC Asset Management Company	20.09%	6%
ICICI Lombard	17.22%	6%
Nippon Life India Asset Management	3.83%	4%
Godrej Agrovet	13.90%	4%
Thrive Future Habitats	44.89%	4%
Route Mobile	35.08%	3%
Godrej Properties	19.94%	3%
Hindware Home Innovation	37.05%	2%
Gujarat State Petronet	1.90%	2%
Mayur Uniquoters	6.70%	1%
Multi Commodity Exchange of India	7.66%	1%
Sheela Foam	9.76%	1%
5Paisa Capital	-14.76%	1%
Ugro Capital	28.32%	1%
Danlaw Technologies	7.47%	1%
Niyogin Fintech	11.13%	1%
Dabur India	4.69%	1%
Reliance Industries	1.33%	1%
AU Small Finance Bank	-1.14%	1%
Xelpmoc Design and Tech	65.36%	1%
IRCTC	-1.12%	1%
ICRA Limited	-0.78%	0%
Apollo Finvest	-17.67%	0%
Capital India Finance	-8.64%	0%
RACL Geartech	1.30%	0%

2021 – Fortunate timing

Looking back, the pivot in 2020, “willing to fail”, was a matter of fortunate timing. After the bull run of 2016-2018, small caps were decimated in 2019. They declined further by March 2020 due to COVID thereby creating a paradise for a stock picker.

Note: For context BSE smallcap Index ( https://www.screener.in/company/1128/) fell 55% from high of 20K in Jan 2018 to 9K in March 2020.

I felt like “apun ich Bhagwan hai” (I am God Almighty) as everything I bought ran up hard within 3 to 6 months.

Portfolio continued to pivot from structural story to new trends:

• Online/internet/new age – Saregama, Tips, Affle, etc.
• ICE to EV – Shivalik Bimetal, Permanent magnets

(Thanks, and credit to Valuepickr forum for Shivalik Bimetal, it helped in understanding the company)

Trends supported by Government focus or incentives - Dixon, Shivalik/Permanent magnets

Top Bets

Saregama/Tips (combined 16% of portfolio): I have shared my rationale earlier in thread here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #18 by joinjp2003 .

Emphasis - Evaluate stock based on what it is that day and what it can do in future. Price action of past should not encourage or deter someone. When I bought Saregama in Feb 2021, it was already up 5x in last 1 year (Apr 2020 to Feb 2021). Generally, this would deter someone thinking that stock has already gone up so much. However, that day (Feb 2021) I found stock was still at 20PE and given growth trajectory I thought it has still lot of room, in coming 1 year stock did another 5x (my portfolio won’t show 5x as I averaged up). Tips Music was also pretty much similar story.

Carysil (5%) and Hindware Home innovation (5%)

As I said stock picker’s paradise, both companies were available at 6-8x ev/ebitda on TTM basis.

Carysil’s revenue/PAT had gone up 50%/150% from FY2017 but share price was flat until end December 2020. However, my key trigger to buy Carysil was its contract with IKEA in 2020. IKEA being a global leader in home furniture I thought it could be great potential and could win more contract based on this. Later IKEA contract got expanded and also it got few renowned US retailers contract.

Shivalik Bimetal (5%) and Permanent Magnets (2%)

I have shared my rationale on these two here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #26 by joinjp2003 .

I want to thank Valuepickr community as Shivalik Bimetal as company was alien to me. However, content on Shivalik on valuepickr was awesome. I was following the stock from previous bull market of smallcaps 2016 to 2018. So, some previous knowledge was already built on the company. Valuations in 2021 were reasonable at 20x and company had started reporting blockbuster results (some benefit of covid base).

Owing to lack of information on PML allocation in 2021 was low at 2%.

Portfolio composition

I was now invested in 36 stocks. My core circle of competence, BFSI, was down to 10% of portfolio from 64% in FY19.

The broadening of circle of competence to new age businesses was in testing mode. Newage/internet (Sargema, Tips, Affle etc.) accounted for 34% of portfolio. Bajaj Finserv and Indiamart were in trim mode they had rallied a lot.

Many stocks like Saregama, Tips, Shivalik Bimetal, Carysil, Hindware, double or tripled within a year.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19	FY20	2020	2021
Top 5	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%	41%	32%
Top 10	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%	70%	51%
#stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19	32	36

Portfolio as of December 2021 (BFSI – 10%, new age – 34%) (XIRR +78%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Saregama India	162.89%	8%
Tips Music	123.45%	8%
AFFLE 3I	81.92%	6%
Shivalik Bimetal Controls	107.30%	5%
Carysil	241.88%	5%
Hindware Home Innovation	162.15%	5%
Hindustan Foods	75.33%	4%
Bajaj Finserv	182.80%	4%
Mayur Uniquoters	44.17%	3%
HDFC Life Insurance Company	29.05%	3%
Intellect Design Arena	3.21%	3%
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company	5.72%	3%
Sheela Foam	75.88%	3%
Laurus Labs	45.83%	2%
Praj Industries	-3.63%	2%
Dixon Technologies (India)	231.49%	2%
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail	18.86%	2%
Matrimony.com	-6.74%	2%
Route Mobile	49.70%	2%
VIP Industries	29.25%	2%
Syngene International	7.26%	2%
HCL Technologies	31.72%	2%
Indiamart Intermesh	58.34%	2%
Permanent Magnets	4.38%	2%
Fiem Industries	16.71%	2%
Tata Consumer Products	7.39%	2%
Gujarat State Petronet	34.19%	2%
Nelco Limited	-0.63%	2%
Nazara Technologies	17.52%	2%
Arvind Fashions	21.24%	2%
IRIS Business Services	8.70%	1%
Delta Corp	-6.14%	1%
Rategain Travel Technologies	1.09%	1%
Lumax Industries	-17.99%	1%
Hikal Limited	-2.10%	1%
Alicon Castalloy	4.83%	1%

2022 – Consolidation

After blockbuster 2020 and 2021, 2022 was a year of consolidation. My portfolio fell more than market. I started holding back on adding more to equity. In previous years, almost all my savings went to equity, however with rising valuations I added only 30% of my incremental savings to equity and 70% to cash/bonds. This was also driven by uncomfortable developments in my job. I realise one should account for job security also as factor to asset allocation – prepare vs. react.

Top bets

Tops bets remained largely same as 2021 – Saregama (9%), Tips (9%), Shivalik (9%), and Affle (8%). I added few more new age businesses, though with lower allocations:

CE Infosystem (3%)

I shared rationale on mapmyindia earlier in the thread here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #10 by joinjp2003 .

PB Fintech (2%)

I shared rationale on PB Fintech earlier in the thread here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #20 by joinjp2003

Rategain Technologies (2%)

Earlier I mentioned how due to price rise, out of blue Affle and Indiamart came in my top holdings. In contrast Rategain where I had lot of conviction was still at 2% allocation in 2022 (vs. 1% allocation in 2021) as price was down about 22% since my entry. As I was convinced and company was delivering in line, I added but at snail’s pace.

Portfolio composition

New age/internet businesses now accounted for 38% of portfolio. Total stocks came down to 24 from 36.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19	FY20	2020	2021	2022
Top 5	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%	41%	32%	42%
Top 10	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%	70%	51%	68%
#stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19	32	36	24

Portfolio as of Dec-2022 (BFSI – 15%, new age – 38%) (XIRR negative 9.5%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Saregama India	22.30%	9%
Tips Music	NA	9%
Shivalik Bimetal Controls	234.90%	9%
AFFLE 3I	49.62%	8%
Hindware Home Innovation	118.01%	7%
Bajaj Finserv	63.72%	7%
Hindustan Foods	115.87%	6%
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company	-4.99%	6%
Carysil	41.54%	4%
C.E. Info Systems	-17.86%	3%
Syrma SGS Technology	-2.42%	3%
Dixon Technologies (India)	49.44%	3%
Sapphire Foods India	5.20%	3%
Motilal Oswal Financial	0.50%	3%
Nelco Limited	-2.27%	3%
Indiamart Intermesh	-5.68%	2%
Rategain Travel Technologies	-22.26%	2%
Go Fashion (India)	10.26%	2%
Permanent Magnets	71.00%	2%
Jubilant FoodWorks	-12.50%	2%
Data Patterns (India)	-10.85%	2%
PB Fintech	-5.69%	2%
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail	0.70%	2%
Paras Defence and Space Technologies	-2.81%	1%

2023 – Earn, Retain and Protect

For a salaried person like me, steady income and good savings are the main ingredients for wealth creation and wealth created can generate income for later years of life.

When one made some wealth, retaining and protecting it becomes extremely important. This is particularly important when one invests in small caps.

In August 2023 I resigned from my job that created need for regular income and protect what was created over time. So, I diversified my net worth into bonds/REITs etc. I reduced equity allocation to less than 60% in 2023 vs. over 90% in previous years.

Top bets

Fruits of New age business investment

Rategain Technologies (15%), PB Fintech (6%), CE Infosystems (6%)

Post 2 years of pain, Rategain went up 2.5x from below 300rs to over 700 rs in 2023. As price and fundamentals improved, I kept adding to it until end of 2023 it was at 15% allocation in my portfolio. I shared here my rationale for investment in Rategain: My portfolio updates and investment journey.

PB Fintech and CE Infosytems (mapmyindia) also did well with 50-70% returns.

Nuvama Wealth Management (9%)

I have shared my rationale on Nuvama here in thread: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #48 by joinjp2003. Surprisingly Nuvama became 9% of portfolio within 3 months of my first buy. Sharp price rise of ~50% led to higher conviction, thereby higher allocation quickly.

Special mention – Acutaas Chemicals

As chemicals sector had not done anything for 2-3 years, I started looking at it. I liked many and invested in 4-5 chemical companies, including Acutaas.

I shared my investment rationale on Acutaas here: https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/my-portfolio-updates-and-investment-journey/109683/55?u=joinjp2003.

Portfolio composition

Portfolio concentration increased as top 10 accounted for 74% of holdings. New age businesses’ allocation stood at 35%, while significant allocation to wealth/asset management businesses begun from 2023 at 12%.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19	FY20	2020	2021	2022	2023
Top 5	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%	41%	32%	42%	46%
Top 10	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%	70%	51%	68%	74%
#stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19	32	36	24	25

Portfolio as of 2023 (Wealth/asset management – 12%, new age/internet – 35%) (XIRR +53%)

Asset Name	Overall Gain %	Portfolio mix
Rategain Travel Technologies	98.80%	15%
Nuvama Wealth Management	34.04%	9%
Saregama India	NM	8%
Bajaj Finserv	72.19%	7%
Hindustan Foods	31.01%	7%
C.E. Info Systems	73.44%	6%
Sandhar Technologies	31.52%	6%
PB Fintech	52.17%	6%
Acutaas Chemicals	0.44%	5%
Permanent Magnets	266.35%	5%
Shivalik Bimetal Controls	NA	4%
360 One Wam	28.74%	2%
3B BlackBio Dx	10.34%	2%
Garware Hi-Tech Films	-1.94%	2%
Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem	0.85%	2%
MPS Ltd	-1.00%	2%
Divgi Torqtransfer Systems	-3.67%	2%
Pricol Limited	8.25%	2%
Clean Science & Technology	9.98%	2%
Welspun Living	-4.46%	2%
Deepak Fertilizers	-1.35%	2%
Restaurant Brands Asia	-5.09%	1%
Nippon Life India Asset Management	29.28%	1%
Cohance Lifesciences	5.22%	1%
Neogen Chemicals	-1.81%	1%

[joinjp2003]

Re-cap of 15-years direct stock investing journey - Part 4

Period of confusion 2024-2025

Have I evolved enough as investor? What more to learn after 14 years of direct stock investing experience?

2024 – An year of confusion

When I look at what I did in 2024, I know I still must learn a lot. Learn to control fear (of losing money) (loss aversion) and FOMO. Learn to inaction or learn to extreme action - go all in cash? I don’t have right answer but a lot more experience is required to understand what could have been an optimal balance.

Elevated valuations caused a lot of confusion – loss aversion to FOMO. For 3-4 months I tried trading with stop loss. Trading with stop loss was mainly to keep the loss % limited (again loss aversion factor here). I have detailed this phase here in the thread: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #218 by joinjp2003.

As my thread begun in 2023, I have provided my 2024 updates here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #188 by joinjp2003 and here: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #207 by joinjp2003.

Portfolio composition

Equity allocation went as low as 49% in May 2024. Number of stocks in portfolio increased to 40 from 25 last year. Nuvama and PB Fintech were real conviction bets while all others were transitory/FOMO or earnings momentum bets.

Exited Bajaj Finserv after holding it for 12 years.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18	FY19	FY20	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Top 5	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%	41%	32%	42%	46%	37%
Top 10	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%	70%	51%	68%	74%	53%
#stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19	32	36	24	25	40

Portfolio as of 2024 (Wealth management – 15%, new age/internet – 22%) (XIRR +62%)

#### Asset Name	#### Overall Gain %	#### Portfolio mix
Nuvama Wealth Management	90.35%	15%
V2 Retail	44.37%	7%
PB Fintech	93.01%	7%
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services	43.90%	4%
Saregama India	-16.55%	4%
Strides Pharma Science	-31.10%	4%
Acutaas Chemicals	2.22%	3%
HDFC Bank	-2.21%	3%
Powergrid Invit	-2.17%	3%
Interarch Building Solutions	15.34%	3%
Goldiam International	7.10%	3%
AFFLE 3I	12.63%	3%
Vimta Labs	30.20%	3%
Data Patterns (India)	2.97%	3%
Medplus Health Services	6.28%	2%
Sandhar Technologies	-7.02%	2%
Latent View Analytics	-2.08%	2%
Tips Music	-15.06%	2%
IRB InvIT Fund	-2.23%	2%
IndiGrid Infrastructure Trust	0.07%	2%
Privi Speciality Chemicals	-6.01%	2%
Garware Hi-Tech Films	22.79%	2%
International Gemmological Institute (India)	-2.60%	2%
Medi Assist Healthcare Services	0.17%	2%
Timex Group India	5.24%	2%
ADF Foods	-3.74%	2%
Deep Industries	-1.45%	1%
C.E. Info Systems	-9.43%	1%
LT Foods	20.05%	1%
Interglobe Aviation	1.81%	1%
Amber Enterprises India	12.69%	1%
Vasa Denticity	-5.17%	1%
P N Gadgil Jewellers	-5.33%	1%
Pix Transmissions	1.30%	1%
J.G.Chemicals	-8.81%	1%
Arvind SmartSpaces	-10.10%	1%
Deepak Fertilizers	-7.17%	1%
Unicommerce eSolutions	-1.13%	1%
Max Financial Services	2.19%	0%
Pricol Limited	0.00%	0%

2025 – Emerging from confusion?

I find it weird that in a year, 2024, when XIRR was +62%, I was confused. Now as I close 2025 with +11% XIRR I feel more sedate.

Portfolio Update

As of end 2025, equity allocation is highest at 67% since 2022. I will feel more confident once I reduce number of stocks to below 20.

Asset mix

Portfolio composition and returns history

In addition to Nuvama and PB Fintech, I was able to add few more conviction bets in 2025 like CSB Bank, Cartrade, Blackbuck, SJS, Inventurus etc.

	H1-2013	2014	2015	FY18*	FY19*	FY20*	20202	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Top 5	100%	35%	48%	70%	62%	51%	41%	32%	42%	46%	37%	41%
Top 10	100%	62%	80%	100%	100%	78%	70%	51%	68%	74%	53%	63%
#stocks	1	30	20	10	10	19	32	36	24	25	40	35
XIRR	NA	20%1	29%1	7%	7%	-29%	164%	78%	-9%	53%	62%	11%

*All periods are calendar years except FY18, FY19 FY20 and 2020, FY18 means period from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018

2* *2020 is 9 month period - March to December

1* *Estimated absolute return for 2014 and 2015.

Portfolio as of 2025 (Wealth management – 18%, new age/internet – 23%) (XIRR +11%)

Sansera engineering was new major addition. Key rationale is large scale up in Aerospace Defense and Semicon (ADS) segment over next 2-3 years. In FY26, ADS division is likely to have revenues of 300 crores which can scale up to 1000 crores by FY28. Also this is higher margin business in 25-30% range. This could lead to overall margin to improve by 300 bps over next 3 years.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation. I work for an investment advisory firm. My portfolio is not a recommendation for anyone. Some of these stocks might be in clients portfolio as well so please be aware of vested interest.

[Cshar]

@joinjp2003 really appreciate the detailed writeup, there is a lot of learning, how do you manage 35-40 stocks? I am unable to go for more than 20, follow concentrated bet strategy.

[vasu2]

Thanking for taking all the pain to type such lengthy post. Immensely benefitted me, personally.

[ashutosh13]

Yes thanks a lot for such detailed post and clear rationale behind your stock picking

[joinjp2003]

Some people wondering why they are not making money despite good results. I had written this case study 8months back on my LinkedIn sharing here for members benefit.

Apr2025: Dear Debenture Holder,
Subject: Notice for breach of covenants and intimation of the meeting of debenture holders (Vgro name changed Limited)
June 2025 - bondholders meeting was convened and it was decided that company shall pay 2% additional interest until it meets back its covenants.

June 2025, company announced an acquisition. Vgro with market capitalisation of about 2K crores acquiring another company for 1.4K crores, quite a heavy lifting

When in trouble, ACQUIRE. Remember: Satyam - Maytas. Pattern recognition? I panicked and exited the bonds at 99% of par.

26th June 2025, Fitch puts Vgro’s ratings on watch with “Positive Implications”. Fitch’s rating on Vgro was already a notch higher at “A+” vs. Crisil at “A”.

Nevertheless, let’s look at some facts:

1. Vgro breached covenant in March 2025

2. The acquired company before acquisition was rated A-

3. In May 2025, Crisil had revised outlook on acquired company from “Positive” to “Stable” while retaining “A-” rating. A negative rating momentum

4. Vgro was rated “A” by Crisil

So what is “A-” + “A” or “A+” + “A-”= ? (Naive?)

5. Crisil retained rating at “A” with Rating Watch Developing Implications.

6. Vgro has been rated by three rating agencies in last one year with many instances of rating withdrawals.

7. ROA of Vgro was ~2.5% (FY25) vs. acquired company at 1.3% (as of June 2024 as per care ratings). So immediate impact on Vgro’s returns is negative

8. Where is the juice? The previous owner of the acquired company had infused 1000 crores from 2019. Now the company got sold for 1.4K crores in 2025, 40% returns over a ~6 years period and sold at just 1.1x P/B TTM basis. Post ~25% currency depreciation, returns drop to just 15% over five years (<3% annualised) for a foreign investor. Vgro may extract juice?

Did company take small investor like me for a ride?
So we get to a interesting juncture: Vgro breaches covenant, it should get capitalisation back to 20%. To raise capitalisation levels it needs to raise capital.

Flashback: Vgro raised capital via warrants in FY25. But the current stock price is ~35% below the warrant conversion price. Converting now means an immediate 35% loss for those warrant holders and skipping it means forfeiting the upfront amount already paid.

To manage this, Vgro planned ₹914 crore in Compulsory Convertible Debentures (CCDs) in June 2025, offering a 12.5% coupon upfront. If the earlier warrant holders don’t convert, CCD holders get an extra 12.5% — doubling the payout.

This structure favors CCD investors and last years large investors who participated in capital raise, while minority shareholders get diluted or hurt.
If previous warrant holders skip conversion, the P&L hit in FY26/27 could be ₹229 crore (25% of ₹914 crore) — that’s 1.6x of FY25 profits, potentially pushing Vgro into losses in FY26/27.

No buy sell recommendation. Just a learning case study.

[Ballaji_Vijayan]

Thank you for the nice write up. I am one of those hopefully wondering why I lose money investing in these type of companies. Have to do better!

But from a learning pov, this is how I took the info.

1. CCD is a 18 month problem and will go away one way or other by this year end.
2. Profectus acquisition through share swapping and PE firm was a reputed one.
3. CCD owners and PE firms all would like this company to succeed for their own sake so I thought interests are aligned.
4. Like you rightly pointed out, worst case, if penalty also kicks in, it’s 229cr issue which may wipe out yearly earnings but with current CAR, company won’t go bankrupt.
5. So, if company survives, isn’t it a good deal to invest at this valuation?
6. Ofcourse biggest worry is whether asset quality can survive current levels esp considering Macro economy and MSME sector.

What do you think? Do you think these issues should have made a retail investor exit rightaway? With how stock price has gone down the hill, probably a right play would have been to exit but wondering how you see it.