My portfolio - Pratik

Hello fellow ValuePickers,

I hope I am not breaking any guideline as this is my first topic on VP.

Following is my portfolio. I would really like feedback from you guys. Critical points are especially welcomed.

Sterlite Technologies - 30%
This business is a beneficiary of data explosion that we are witnessing right now. It is the only business having coverage of entire vertical from silica to fiber. Current capacity utilization is more than 90% and demand is strong. More capex being commissioned. Many telecom players are upgrading/increasing their network and this creates demand for optical fiber. With really low penetration of internet in India, we will probably see more tailwinds for this business for quite some time at least domestically. I do realize that margins are at peak and will not remain the same. Even then I believe this business could do well considering sectoral tailwinds and it’s unique position. Some people think this a cyclical/commodity kind of business but I don’t get that, I would like to understand that though.

Tejas Networks - 27%
Again a business which is beneficiary of data explosion and increasing data networks in India. This business is about manufacturing devices which are used in latest data networks. They call their devices “Software defined Hardware”. Basically, these are the devices/hardware which can be upgraded as network grows. This enables network providers to upgrade their system without having to change hardware which is costlier than changing software. This is a very simplistic explanation but I don’t want to go in much details here. They claim to be spending more than 50% of the expenditure on research and development which is a positive point as long as we see their top line growing (which means their research is in right direction). They received orders from Governments of Mexico, Bangladesh and India. In India, they did get orders for BharatNet scheme phase 1. Phase 2 is expected to start.

KCP Ltd. - 20%
Sort of a value buy(?). Conglomerate of about 5 businesses(Cement, Sugar, Power, Engineering, Hotel). Last three businesses are not doing good and hence the valuation is much low compared to other cement players. Amravati development can potentially create demand for Cement business. However, management doesn’t seem to be ambitious and vibrant enough. Their cement segment has not delivered good results in last few quarters. I am planning to reduce this holding to 10% when I get chance. Right now, stock price has corrected significantly.

Suprajeet Engineering - 14%
This is very well discussed business. check Suprajit Engineering for more info. Apart from obvious positives, I like the fact that company is being run by the founder and while looking at some videos of the company I noticed that the founder was wearing the same uniform that most employees wear. That is a good sign IMHO.

Edelweiss - 4.2%
Excellent management. They have many segments which have potential to grow significantly as India goes from 2.5 to 5 trillion economy within next 10 years. Specifically, their corporate lending segment can grow significantly as many players are facing NPA issues. Also, with infra cycle expected to start we can see a situation where demand increases and supply remains constrained. I also like their mutual fund business. This is my long term position and I plan to accumulate slowly and gradually as I think the valuation is not cheap right now. This is why it is just about 4% of PF right now.

Any suggestion/question will be helpful.

Thanks a lot!

Hi
i will sell everything except edelweiss and buy solid 20% growers like hdfc bank kotak indusind titan to start with.
To build a portfolio you need to have some solid compounders + value buys + high growth companies in the ratio of 35 + 30 + 35. I repeat Its just my view.

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But there are no value buys in current market for the high growth companies you have mentioned. :grinning::grinning:

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value buys and high growth companies are different. i just mentioned the steady 20+ growth companies as an example. they are not high growth companies.

Thanks for your honest view. Question is how much price would yoh pay for steady compounders?! This is certainly not a time to buy them. Buying high quality compounders at high valuations can result in sognificant under performance over long term and opportunity cost would be even higher.

Who knows where the market will go . I mean to say go up or go Down. It’s very very diff to time the market.i never buy stocks looking at nifty or sensex.
If your stock fundamental is ok and if it’s not the leader of last bull market you might get you money back within 3 years as dreaded
of the bear market normally dont last more than 18 months. So even in11700+ there might be some opportunities. But best opportunities for investors comes in a bear market.

i believe that the maximum correction that can happen to any index is not more than 10%, if that happens. The indices will move only up from now if India has to grow, it has the desire of the momentum of youth to capitalise.
But buying a stock should be on sound fundamentals like consistent growth>15%, consistent profitability>15%, a management to wear our any uncertainties, lower debt structure etc.
But there are players in the market who disrupt all these fair thinking, so at the very end, its 50% luck and 50% hard work.

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It has been a long time since I posted an update here although I have posted on company specific threads where I was invested or interested.

Following is the breakdown of the portfolio.

Stock. Avg buying price
Carysil. 180
Pokarna. 376
Sandur. 525
Ambika 1767
Allcargo. 128
Kopran. 192
Shivalik. 88
Vadilal. 555

It remains more concentrated than what I would like but I have been trying to follow a strategy which involves very low churn and focused investing as well as exploration.

There are many names which I was invested in but have booked profits when they ran up significantly. Some of these names are still very good but just felt that valuations were discounting the positive hypothesis already.

  1. Oriental Aromatics
    Well positioned small cap in niche segment. It was in sweet spot for some time and gave good returns but at some point they were running at full capacity utilization and new capex was going to take years. Price had ran up quite a lot. I booked my profits after some days of writing following post. Bought it at about 200 and sold at about 500. Frenzy continued after that also like it happens many times in small caps and stock went up to 1000 not too long after sold out but no regrets since we have to make logical decisions and it’s perfectly fine to leave some profits on the table. Today it’s at about 350. This is one good quality small cap. Management is expert in this niche segment and quite an established player. I will be definitely be interested in investing in it again at some point.
  1. Black Rose
    Again a niche player with decades of experience in trading and distribution that got my attention when they were commissioning new manufacturing plant. It looked very much probable that their entire new capacity will be fully utilized almost immediately. It was also an import substitution product. I booked profit when significant new capacity was expected from SNF.
  1. Madhya Bharat Agro Ltd.
    My first big multibagger :slight_smile: It was a microcap so my position was small. But good run up in price made the needle move at portfolio level because it went up 7x very quickly and I booked profit at those level after which it doubled but again I have no regrets cause I would happily see it go up further than regret losing all gains. Many things can go south in microcap and such a run in short time should only be considered a pure draw of luck because I would have never predicted it. So count the blessings and book the profits. Small investor like myself have little to no visibility in such microcaps so it’s very hard to build conviction here.

  2. Nikhil Adhesives
    Small player in adhesives marker with a brand called Mahacol. There was a good trigger for growth in 2 years period as company had entered into agreement with really large American paints company to manufacture for them. I love such situations where business is already secured and then an investment is made to execute it. Much simpler situation. On top of that their retail brand seemed to be gaining traction. Their products looked good. Famous CANSLIM investor Varun Daga and Charandeep Singh were invested which gave me confidence because their entire process is focused on new and good products that actually work in market. They don’t predict. They invest based on reported numbers. In terms of today’s price my entry was at about 10 and sold it off during pf churn when COVID hit to safe guard capital at about 20. It’s a regret for me because it went up 10x after that. During those days of uncertainty I reshuffled my pf to get out of risky investments like this in order to preserve capital. Sar salamat to paghadi hazar!
    In hindsight, I should have kept monitoring the company and when COVID related risks were more clear I should have taken a call. But laziness got to me. If COVID like blue moon event happens again I would take same decision of selling such microcaps but I will not stop monitoring them!

  3. Modi Naturals
    Similar story and result as Nikhil Adhesives.

  4. Poly Medicare
    Great minds of VP had already done tremendous work and identified this company. This business went into long consolidation from 2013 to 2017. Their competition was making it difficult for them by litigation in various geographies. However by 2017/18 company had resolved most of the cases in their favor. I was lucky to stumble upon this company at the time and I allocated good portion. I sold off at about 1000 RS when they declared QIP. It was more than 3x for me so I booked profit but this is one business which I will always keep on my shopping list when there’s blood bath in markets for non company specific reasons.

  5. Sharda crop chem
    Light weight business run by an expert. Sold off during pf churn of COVID.

  6. Sonata software
    Same story as above.

  7. Suprajit engineering
    Again this was well analyzed here on VP. I invested because their new capacity was being commissioned but Auto cycle did not revive. I realized my limitation as a retail investor trying to track an industry cycle like auto and sold off in favor of other simpler investments.

  8. Swaraj Engines
    Same as above. Excellent management. Might be interesting at this time though.

  9. Vadilal industries
    Being in USA I saw the products and their traction first hand. I loved the products. I loved the brand. What made me allocate a small position was the dispute between brothers who owned it. I didn’t want to get into such situation but other factors made me invest a very small amount and I am glad I did.

Mistakes:
I made fair share of mistakes in the beginning but thankfully my pf was small at the time.

  1. Tejas Network
    I had to book loss of about 20% and as you can see above Tejas formed a huge part of my pf. I loved their products and IPs. It was one of very product based tech company with huge addressable market. I sold off when management kept making promises that were never achieved. Moreover, management used statistical magic to hide some dark areas. I was following the company from early on and I could see how management was trying to deceive retailers on their presentations and transcripts. I sold off when I realizer this. After that Tata group acquired it and Vijay Kedia happened but I don’t regret my decision.

Learning: It is better to invest in small caps based on reported numbers rather than anticipation of growth specially in frenzied sectors like Tejas’s.
Also, never rely on past 3 years numbers of a company that has just done an IPO. Every company starts window dressing with numbers and balance sheet at least 3 years prior to IPO. Those numbers aren’t real. And once they have your money, such company will invariably report subdued numbers because they have to adjust for the magic that they have done in last 3 years !

  1. Sterlite Technologies
    Again it was a top down kind of approach thinking that 5G will fire up the demand for optical fiber and it’s a structural change.
    What I didn’t realize was that this is a commodity business and tons of new capacity was being commissioned.
    I also made a mistake of taking peak cycle numbers and thinking that they will continue.

  2. KCP
    Looked like a value buy with several possibilities that never realized like their new hotel business. Sugar and cement were obviously commodities.

  3. Edelweiss
    Thankfully it was a tiny investment. I did it after watching a presentation on YT. I thought Mr shah was a genius.
    Obvious mistake of betting on a person whom I know only superficially. And being an IT guy it’s very hard for me to analyze their business which is another mistake I made. It’s down 85% from my buying price but thankfully it wasn’t even 1% of my pf.

Overall, this forum has played significant role in my journey and I wanted to share my experience. And I also have a selfish motive of getting some counter views that can broaden my perspective.

I am re-evaluating my allocation in Pokarna as it can face risk of ADD considering how quickly US commerce department keeps changing their stances like a trader!

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Booked profit in Allcargo and bought in Styrenix Performance materials previously known as INEOS styrolutions. Will add more on new entrant as I finish researching on it.