My Portfolio - Kailas

Hi All !
This is my portfolio as of today’s closing! I would request your suggestions, if any, to make it better!

  1. Granules India 14%
  2. Hawkins 14.5%
  3. Lupin 11.5%
  4. Aurobindo Pharma 10.5%
  5. PI Industries 9.5%
  6. Tata Elxsi 8.5%
  7. Repco 7.5%
  8. Force Motors 7.5%
  9. MCX 4.75%
  10. Pokarna 4.25%
  11. REC Ltd. 4%
  12. Avanti Feeds 3%

I am in market since 2008 and portfolio has gone through ups and downs over time. Repco, Lupin, Hawkins are very old holdings, others are last 1 to 2 year old purchases.

I invite views from experienced people with any specific advice for modifications.

Regards,
Kailas

Your selection of Stocks seem to be Pretty much decent & it seems that you definitely would have been clear with your rational behind choosing these selected Scrips from the Entire Universe.

Sector Allocation also seems to be in Tandem, so as to not being over-concentrated or diversified.
Only thing IMHO, is that please do ensure while choosing any scrip that is there any better business available at reasonable valuations with Promoter’s ethic being already demonstrated during an entire Business Cycle, including Ups & Downs of the Economy. How much fire in there in belly of Promoters will be directly proportional to your expected Returns.

As Pointed by Sir Charlie Munger, you cannot expect a Stock to return more than its Underlying Business.
In my personal capabilities, I would have definitely restricted myself from last 3 specifically & would have preferred Strides/Ajanta from Pharma Space.

Views shared hereby are totally personal & do not solicit any Buy or Sell Recommendation & may be biased as well due to inclination towards the respective Businesses.

Thanks @bsahni ji !
Regarding last 3:
Pokarna is at beginning of turnaround! Revenue growth is in line with management guidance! If turnaround is successful, it can become a great return generator. So weightage is also low.
REC Ltd. is bought mainly because of very low valuation & dividend yield. It would be moved out at normalized valuations.
Avanti Feeds, I liked the scrip after going thru its thread and took an initial position. Then it has dropped, so not added on it.
MCX is added with very long term view of 10+ years. Addition/deletion into it depends on business performance.

Adding another pharma instead of present ones would tilt portfolio heavily loaded in pharma sector which is presently 35.5% already. In fact I would increase in Repco, Force & Tata Elxsi or add another stock which may benefit from impending infra possibilities or IT sector to reduce portfolio dependence on pharma.

I generally dont like to have allocation of less than 7-8%. So last 4 in fact are initial positions with some losses.

Thanks anyway!

A Quick Question from ny side would be:

When we have quality businesses with well tested business models run by
ethical & efficient Managements, why to take a Plunge in finding
turnarounds & then indulge yourself in uncertainity…

It is my personal opinion/ strategy & not to discourage u.

As far as Reason for u to go ahead with REC for Div Yield & tht too PSU
from Power Sector for which Govt is trying all possible efforts to revive
the drowned & lacklustre sector, I wd have preferred MPS/SQS/Piramal
Enterprise to name a few as these all hv got Promoters who are great
Capital Allocators & I feel immensely safe to park my money with those guys
where Capital Appreciation coupled with Opportunity Size & a cushion of
safety in terms of gud Div Yield…

I prefer to play a sure & safe bet with No Govt/Regulator intervention…
After all its our Personal Choice & thts Y it is known as Personal Finance.

Thnx for initiating a healthy discussion…

Scrips mentioned above are in no way a buy or sell recommendation
On Mar 18, 2016 9:28 PM, “kailasp4u” noreply@forum.valuepickr.com wrote:

kailasp4u
March 18

Thanks @bsahni ji !
Regarding last 3:
Pokarna is at beginning of turnaround! Revenue growth is in line with
management guidance! If turnaround is successful, it can become a great
return generator. So weightage is also low.
REC Ltd. is bought mainly because of very low valuation & dividend yield.
It would be moved out at normalized valuations.
Avanti Feeds, I liked the scrip after going thru its thread and took an
initial position. Then it has dropped, so not added on it.
MCX is added with very long term view of 10+ years. Addition/deletion
into it depends on business performance.

Adding another pharma instead of present ones would tilt portfolio
heavily loaded in pharma sector which is presently 35.5% already. In fact I
would increase in Repco, Force & Tata Elxsi or add another stock which may
benefit from impending infra possibilities or IT sector to reduce portfolio
dependence on pharma.

I generally dont like to have allocation of less than 7-8%. So last 4 in
fact are initial positions with some losses.

Thanks anyway!

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Previous Replies
bsahni
March 18

Your selection of Stocks seem to be Pretty much decent & it seems that
you definitely would have been clear with your rational behind choosing
these selected Scrips from the Entire Universe.

Sector Allocation also seems to be in Tandem, so as to not being
over-concentrated or diversified.
Only thing IMHO, is that please do ensure while choosing any scrip that
is there any better business available at reasonable valuations with
Promoter’s ethic being already demonstrated during an entire Business
Cycle, including Ups & Downs of the Economy. How much fire in there in
belly of Promoters will be directly proportional to your expected Returns.

As Pointed by Sir Charlie Munger, you cannot expect a Stock to return
more than its Underlying Business.
In my personal capabilities, I would have definitely restricted myself
from last 3 specifically & would have preferred Strides/Ajanta from Pharma
Space.

Views shared hereby are totally personal & do not solicit any Buy or Sell
Recommendation & may be biased as well due to inclination towards the
respective Businesses.

kailasp4u
March 18

Hi All !
This is my portfolio as of today’s closing! I would request your
suggestions, if any, to make it better!

Granules India 14%
Hawkins 14.5%
Lupin 11.5%
Aurobindo Pharma 10.5%
PI Industries 9.5%
Tata Elxsi 8.5%
Repco 7.5%
Force Motors 7.5%
MCX 4.75%
Pokarna 4.25%
REC Ltd. 4%
Avanti Feeds 3%

I am in market since 2008 and portfolio has gone through ups and downs
over time. Repco, Lupin, Hawkins are very old holdings, others are last 1
to 2 year old purchases.

I invite views from experienced people with any specific advice for
modifications.

Regards,
Kailas


Visit Topic or reply to this email to respond.

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2 Likes

I agree to your point about REC, but sometimes you take a calculated decision based on govt/promoters’ actions, its one of them!
Turnarounds have tremendous capacity to give abnormal returns, on both sides! So allocations have to be accordingly! Its matter of comfort zone!
SQS EClerx Hexaware are on radar for one replacement or addition! Waiting for opportune times! I believe, opportunities can emerge anytime in current environment!

1 Like

Finally it lands up to one’s own risk taking appetite…

Common goal here for each 1 of us is devise a strategy of their own & try
to follow it diligently & modify/ re-invent the same in due course of our
investment journey,with our learnings on the way.
Be comfortable in your own strategy & be fkexible to accomodate learnings
continuosly is all what I can say…

Money Minting will follow if you are disciplined & know your investment
psyche as nobody will know tht better than your own self…
Regards,
Bharat

2 Likes

Good PF kailas.

I like your stock picks. It looks like a well balanced PF. And one can have an approach which combines a mix of long term and opportunistic bets. Key remains not to confuse between the two.

One can have a definite investment strategy one is comfortable with and confident about, and then stick to it.

2 Likes

Thanks Hitesh Bhai!
I have been thinking of replacing Hawkins or Lupin based on available opportunities! But often caught in dilemma since last 1year or so! May be holding bias! So just kept on holding! What would be your advice?

Its difficult to give a clear cut answer to someone. It all boils down to one’s conviction bcos in difficult times its one’s own conviction that counts.

I recently bought some Hawkins after a long time and having taken a hard look. What I like is that at these prices expectations seem low and Hawkins after a long time has given two consecutive quarters of good numbers. But with Hawkins its always a leap of faith. What I like is aggressiveness in advertising shown by them esp on TV.

Lupin is a class company and can be bought when it is facing temporary issues like it is doing recently. How low it can go is anybody’s guess but one needs to be ready to bear the pain for the shorter term in these kind of conditions. But once these issues are resolved returns could be great.

1 Like

Thanks for response! I had similar thinking, hence no decision for long time!
Hawkins giving good results, but it seems on low base! May be we have to see another 2-3 quarters for consistency. If change in management position has changed anything in strategy, will have to be watched.
On Lupin, its neither too high to sell, nor too low to buy yet in my opinion. So, if it goes lower, it will be better to buy more instead of selling.
Thanks for your view on it.

About Force Motors, management has given 20-25% revenue guidance, operating margins increasing due to BMW engine manufacturing factory. I made a rough calculation that its almost 10x 1yr forward P/E. Do you track it? In my opinion, this is classic case of turnaround. Past growth, ROE, ROCE will discourage anyone in such cases, but last one & half year, management has delivered on its words. And the guidance is also greatly encouraging.
Similar case in Pokarna, but high debt (though interest coverage ratio is sufficiently ok, and it wont matter if growth continues) may be dampening alongwith forward visibility. Eventually, it should get normalised valuations.