My Portfolio_Homemaker

@hitesh2710 sir ,

how many stock you like to have in your portfolio at time ? As you have mentioned you will reject an idea if it is not worth 5% allocation . As one fellow investor pointed me that one should not allocate more than 7,8% to an 500cr market cap company as it will give more volatility to your portfolio.

Can you tell me your views on this kind of small market cap company and what percentage you would like to give in your portfolio. Do you find any stock in recent time whose characteristic are similar to ajanta , kaveri and mayur. As i was reading all these thread, i found you had great conviction on these stock and you discovered these stock at cheap valuation.In this current market scenario,do you see company with multibagger potential with cheap valuation.

Thanks,

Can u pls share rationale for lnt tech to be ur top most holding? Also why lnt tech and not lnt infotech or.any other IT company. Thanks

Chanced upon an article on one of the richest businesswomen in India- turned out to be an interesting stock insight on Biocon. Will dig deeper, but clear signs that long term R&D, recent approvals, partnerships with Mylan etc can just be an inflection point for the stock. Its like all arsenals in place for the final attack- next 3 years journey can be very interesting.

I had to allocate in IT sector to properly diversify. But IT sector is getting / going to be disrupted with newer technologies like automation, AI, machine learning, blockchain, cloud etc. So two stocks, one in legacy tech and other new tech would be proper. I chose infosys and ltts. Ltts is focused, shown good quarter performance and exceeded management guidance by a fair margin.

I have taken a 5% position in Ashok Leyland today after price dropped by 4 %.

Its close to 52 week low, YoY sales have degrown by 10 %. However I find nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. 2nd largest CV player, no debt, good ratios available at 16 PE. Expanding operations in Bangladesh and new emission norms complied. Found risk reward favourable as its fallen 35 % from High.

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Negatives
Complexity of Bio Tech Jargons, USFDA stringent approval process & Biocon with 70 odd PE is turning me off…

Positives
Rest of the story as per news reports, biography of KM Shaw, R&D capability, international tie ups, approval of biosimilar sales in EU, biologic better than small molecules :wink: etc are positive triggers and extremely tempting.

VPickrs! Whats your take on Biocon and banking on the vision of one of the richest and respected self made billionaire woman!!!

@simplyraghav

I am just a mere spectator in this deal. It will take time for me to understand the impact of minority shareholders in this Mega Merger. Will dig deep and try to understand and will share my views… :pray:

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If sales are down by 10%, does it not mean something has gone wrong fundamentally. How do we know that sales will recover in near future.

Ashok Leyland is not a typical index scrip. It gets beaten really badly when the chips are down. It is not like TCS or HuL. Therefore, I personally would seek more margin of safety. For me, a comfy entry price would be around Rs.80 which is 2016 Lows.

Wow, has HUL now got all the brands owned by Glaxo consumer?

Performance of CV space will.be subdued till general election, upcycle will be based on next goverment and its spending program. There is slowdown happening im auto space, 2019 will be a year of consolidation for auto, auto ancillery stocks. There is no gaurentee if PE 16 is low and its cant go down lower further, look at tata motors.

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The latest fall in sales figures could be because of NBFC issues, and may continue for some more time, I assume.

Also, any thoughts on how exactly new axle norms could impact the sector going forward?

Revised axle norms will slow down demand for CV’s. Old vehicle scrappage is also turned down by court.Saw a news in CNBC today where Cargo demand is down by 20% recently due to low consumer sentiments. Infian economy is slowing down, cement, auto, housing, paint, cement, electric cables, low cost housing, building meterial, infra, NBFC all will witness slowdown. There is shortfall of 1.3-1.5 lakh cr in fiscal targets. Only consumer staples, selected consumer descretionary, Niche sectors like food, alscohal, export, some private banks are investment grade. Consumer finance is not impacted.

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some insights on the deal…

@cshar @jamit05
Your comments on ALL, are in line with the report…:ok_hand:Will keep a close watch for 1-2 quarters…

yes, I meant all India brands. Not sure about his deal but HUL is not a share to be sold…I think it is a share to be held and added on declines, corrections and crashes. I have to still own 1 HUL share. Did not buy it at Rs 200 around 8-9 years back when I first saw its price, did not buy it in recent correction at Rs 1500. Maybe will end up buying higher one day.

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Being the novice, I personally think valuation wise this is sweet for HUL. If they are able to build upon the GSK food franchise log term then, in the short term this looks good financially. HUL has given a value of 31,700 crores for the GSK business. GSK TTM net profits were 851 crores (Screener.in). This is a valuation of 37.25 times earnings. HUL P/E hovers around 60. Now even if brand Horlicks per se de-grows over the next few years HUL is getting a reasonable discount.

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Added today Abbott India- 5% of portfolio.

It has run up significantly in this year. However PE of 35 is in line with most MNC pharma companies. Abbott India introduced 20 new products this year and 16 of them are successful as per CEO. Abbott has plans to add 100 such new products, in next 5 years. This is a steady growth story as I understood. R&D cost is majorly borne by Abbott USA. Improving margins in last 2-3 years. Great cash flow, as vetted by Saurabh Mukherjea.

IMO, Comparing with India pharma, it faces lesser headwinds, USFDA observations, regulatory challenges.

Also intuitively, I find US companies great at marketing and can position even medicines as FMCG. Also, India seems to happily offer domestic market for US MNCs to grow freely in general.

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Hoping they do it via the listed entity and not via the 100% owned subsidiary like in the case of Pediasure and other such products. I also read Saurabh’s interview and did a very quick checking and the above point turned me off. I recall Novartis also doing the same thing few years back and market at that time did not like this at all.

Also are you aware if Novo Nordisk’s insulin products are still distributed by Abbott in India? I read old news report but nothing in the latest AR.

From MD Ambati Venu interview, I could understand that core focus ( gastroenterology, metabolics, vaccines, central nervous system and women’s health) area will see new product launches which is typically under listed. OTC and milk formulation, new products might be launched under unlisted. This is indeed a dampener.

Novo tied up with Torrent & Abbott. Latest update till 2016 is available online & I am aware. Thereafter, I dont have much idea.