My Portfolio_Homemaker

From MD Ambati Venu interview, I could understand that core focus ( gastroenterology, metabolics, vaccines, central nervous system and women’s health) area will see new product launches which is typically under listed. OTC and milk formulation, new products might be launched under unlisted. This is indeed a dampener.

Novo tied up with Torrent & Abbott. Latest update till 2016 is available online & I am aware. Thereafter, I dont have much idea.

Thanks. Let me study Abbott. Reason for asking about Novo’s product distribution was, recently purchased a few flexpen for a relative and was shocked seeing the high cost of it. Pack mentioned only Novo Nordisk. Looks like they are only distributing it in India now-a-days. Insulin is a biologic so its costly and coming up with generic/bio-similar is complex. I think biocon is doing some work there but not tracking it. For vaccines, Glaxo pharma is also a good bet. Have been holding it for last few years and they give good dividend also.

I think this is the interview you are referring to -

Does Glaxo pharma have any OTC products or intends to grow in that space in India?

Very few like calpol, betnovate skin cream from GSKPharma in India. I think they are more focused on vaccines.Otherwise GSK has very good OTC products like Eno, Iodex, Sensodyne, Otrivin, Crocin.

1 Like

Head to Head: Atul vs Aarti ( Chosen 2 large chemical stocks nearing 52 week high)

  1. Sales, profit, share price growth, Margin wise Aarti is better than Atul.

  2. But Valuation, FCF, D:E wise Atul is better than Aarti.

  3. Atul looks like a safe / defensive stock, while Aarti is an enterprising stock.

1 Like

Nice summary of learning from expert boarders.

Awesome concept of clustering. I never heard of this term, but intuitively felt this is basic in volatile stock market. This is one of the reasons why timing at stock level is not worth and buy hold often yields better result.

1 Like

India is moving towards more efficient economy than growth economy and ROCE becoming more important than EPS growth.

2 Likes

For those who think making a portfolio in October was a good move as it was the bottom, including me, this article is something to take note. Waiting in the sidelines will be trend for next 6 months as it seems.

In election year the ruling party tends to walk a mile to keep the sentiment buoyant. No bears in sight for a year at least. Market is likely to grind away in a range.

1 Like

Hello,
In which areas Asian paints is better than its peers like Berger paints, Nerolac and Nobel India limited? Can u please explain the rational behind your choice for Asian paints?

Bear markets are shorter…from few months to 2 years…if you don’t invest… what the point…add slowly to your high conviction bets

1 Like

You may also want to Consider following scripts in Chemical space :
Vinati Organics
Transpek industry
Excel Industries

1 Like

Based on your posts, you seem to have way more knowledge than me still I felt I should reply to this post. People who are saying there will be 6 months bear/stagnant market, know nothing about future. People saying there will be 2 years of bear market, know nothing about future. People saying this is the right time to invest and there is bull market ahead, know nothing about future. What I know is we have to find out companies which are going to grow, have proven management, available at discount to its long term price or in a sector with tailwinds, not gamble, keep moderate expectations and keep investing. Keep buying and selling when the price demands it or there is change in business fundamentals. The earlier we reach to that stage of being a calm investor, the better for us. If we take decisions based on what others say or from Moneycontrol articles, we will still keep buying and selling without actually investing.

15 Likes

Completely agree. The best thing to do is to find and invest in great companies and put yourself in a place where good things can happen. I dont know when a bull market will start or a bear market will end, but I am convinced that 10 years later the broader market will be meaningfully higher than what it is today. And as such, all well run companies will do well. I have made a ton of mistakes, but investing is a journey and we learn and survive to fight another day. Stick to the basics, dont bother predicting markets, focus on great companies is my philosophy.

2 Likes

Thanks for posting your broad views. Quite relevant I must admit.

However, by saying waiting in sidelines, I didnot mean exiting the market. I mean a significantly higher cash %, till the time dust settles or we find a secular rising pattern. By not being invested, it’s very difficult to track market, developments…its not recommended. Perfect timing is a myth!

Even short term FD instead of cash will give good 5 to 6 %. Isn’t it?

Also, I read @ayushmit presentation. I was amazed at his humbleness, that many times he puts money and then tracks stocks. By putting small money, you get kind of married, and your research becomes better with passing quarters.

He suggested a concept of tail stocks or tracking stocks with little weightage and gradually load up as conviction develops. It made a lot of practical sense.

I will shortly come up with 5 tail stocks investment in small, micro caps in portfolio… WIP😊

3 Likes

Rightly said. One must strive to ensure that he remains invested for 10 + years. However the market conspires. It makes ordinary investors exit the Holdings. It scares, bores or clouds them with greed.

money moves from the active to the patient

1 Like

Investment decisions are so complex. A rough comparison of fundamental parameters of Yes bank & Kotak, will show Yes Bank as a value pick compared to expensive Kotak. And here we have the father of value investing betting with 10% stake on Kotak. Seems Mr.Buffet forgot to use PE & DCF calculators :grinning:

May be Kotak, caters to HNI customers, which in india is going to grow in next decade. That’s why.

YB KMB
P/E (TTM) x 8.5 38.6
P/BV x 1.5 4.7
Dividend Yield % 1.6 0.1

Today Yes Bank is cheap. But cheapness in the present is not what they are seeking.

IMO, five years later for Kotak RS.1300 per share will be 15x it’s prevailing EPS at the time. But, for Yes Bank such a visibility is absent, it is a gamble.

3 Likes

Not sure if the news is genuine or if the deal would close.
As of yesterday’s close, Kotak had a market cap of 225,000 Cr or ~32 Billion USD (assuming 70 INR/USD). Berkshire is valuing 10% at 4 to 6 Billion. If the deal progresses stock would likely run up quite a bit.

Disclosure: Kotak Mahindra Bank is 5% of my portfolio.

1 Like