My Portfolio for long term

Hi All,

I have built a portfolio in last 1.5 years which is at break even now.
Mentioned below is the portfolio along with the weightages.

HUL - 6%
Bajaj Finance - 6%
Escorts - 6%
HDFC Bank - 6%
Asian Paints - 5%
Aarti Industries - 5%
Indiamart - 5%
Kotak Bank - 5%
Pidilite - 5%
Mannapuram - 5%
HDFC AMC - 4%
Dr Lalpathlabs -4%
Infoedge - 4%
Vinati Organics - 4%
Divis Labs - 4%
Abbot India - 4%
Deepak Nitrite - 4%
Astral - 4%
Alkyl Amine - 4%
ICICI lombard - 4%
Bharti Airtel - 3%
Muthoot Finance - 3%

There are 22 companies which I will be trimming further to 15 based on the performance.

Apart from this I am invested in some MFs.

Also I am 40% into cash still as I feel there can be a fresh round of selling after the Q1 and Q2 results.

Please let me know if the portfolio is good and can generate 15-18% returns over a long period of time say 10 years.

Looking forward for your suggestions.

I will be sharing the justification behind the investment in another mail.

Thanks and Regards,
Jaisish

3 Likes

HUL - 6% - Consistent performer over the years. Good rural play in these times. Valuations are bit on the higher side, but it has good distribution channel to keep going.
Bajaj Finance - 6% - Though it has crashed recently, it has chances of gaining market share after the crisis just like it did in 2008-09.
Escorts - 6% - Tractors is a sector whose sales did not crash in the auto carnage. Good play on rural theme and also its EPS went up in last couple of years when the EPS of all other companies went down.
HDFC Bank - 6% - Biggest brand in private banks. Hope it will gain market share after this crisis.
Asian Paints - 5% - Good consistent performer over the years. Best brand in paints.
Aarti Industries - 5% - Good consistent player in the chemical space. Even after losing the big deal, still has enough potential to keep on growing.
Indiamart - 5% - Internet advertising space will be a growing one in the upcoming years.
Kotak Bank - 5% - Second best bank. Good consistent performer over the years.
Pidilite - 5% - Best brand in the adhesives space. Will gain market share after the crisis.
Mannapuram - 5% - Play on rising gold price and people using gold loans to restart their business.
HDFC AMC - 4% - India has only 5% financial assets share compared with 20-25% of developed economies. This is a space which can grow a lot in future.
Dr Lalpathlabs -4% - Asset lite model. People getting more cautious about their health and it can gain ground in long term.
Infoedge - 4% - Good company for play on business using digital model. Is the only such company in this space.
Vinati Organics - 4% - Another consitent company in the chemical space.
Divis Labs - 4% - Good company in pharma API space. Has shown consistent growth in recent years
Abbot India - 4% - MNC pharma play. Valuations on higher side, but earnings are still coming good.
Deepak Nitrite - 4% - Business showed lots of traction. To benefit from the China supply chain disruption.
Alkyl Amine - 4% - Business showed lots of traction. To benefit from the China supply chain disruption.
Astral - 4% - Biggest name in pipes industry and their adhesives brand is also growing.
ICICI lombard - 4% - Play on the insurance theme which is underpenetrated in India and has good growth potential in coming years. Also people getting interested in health insurance will help.
Bharti Airtel - 3% - Telecom will show good potential of growth in next couple of years as ARPUs will increase.
Muthoot Finance - 3% - Play on rising gold price and people using gold loans to restart their business.

2 Likes

I think you are overexposed to financial & chemical sector. Although you have picked all solid companies, I think adding some IT companies in portfolio would be beneficial. Overall very solid bucket of shares.

2 Likes

Hi Chaitanya,

Thanks for your inputs. Yeah, I am more into financials currently, but I may get out of the gold finance companies when the gold cycle is over. Chemicals also I am overweight a bit now due to the tailwinds the sector has.

Regards,
Jaisish

If u see I have kept a couple of tech companies like Indiamart and Infoedge. For the traditional IT services companies, I do not see them having earnings growth in double digits which would have been to my liking. So I am staying away from IT till I see double digit growth back in the space.

hi sir. do you not feel finance has headwinds instead of tailwinds given the default risks. or are you looking at this from another angle that market leaders will gain market share at the behest of smaller players

My analysis on the financial stocks I own:

ICICI Lombard and HDFC AMC are non lending financials. So there would not be much impact on them.

Mannapurram and Muthoot are both gold loan business and their loan book and margins will go up in the gold rush period and crisis.

That leaves me with HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and Bajaj Finance.

HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank has more strong loan books in terms of NPAs being less. Secondly in terms of crisis the top 2 banks will gain some market share. They are high CASA franchises and hence their NIMs will be high compared to other banks where cost of funding will be higher than these big franschisees.
Same logic for Bajaj Finance which is the top NBFC. Plus bajaj finance always takes funding for longer periods and lends them for shorter periods. So it will work as a safety net in such crisis.
Also I entered these scrips when they had corrected between 30-40% and 50% plus correction for Bajaj Finance.
I feel in a period of 1-2 years once all the crisis gets over, they will gain market share and hence their ROCEs will increase.

2 Likes

Hi All,

Made some changes in the PF.

Britannia
Bharat Rasayan
TCPL
Escorts
HUL
Bajaj Finance
HDFC Bank
Indiamart
Asian Paints
Kotak Bank
Pidilite
Dr Lal Pathlabs
Mannapuram
Muthoot Finance
Infoedge
Vinati Organics
Divis Labs
Reliance

Welcoming feedback from the members.

1 Like

Hi Jaishish, I received your email asking for feedback on your portfolio.

I dont know whats TCPL (packaging co or Tata Consumer).

Most of them are leaders in their respective businesses. Probability of losing capital permanently with this portfolio is close to 0.

Over period of time, see if you can develop comfort and conviction to give more weight to higher conviction bets in your portfolio.

All the best.

Dear Jaisish
I like your portfolio and I have quite a few of these stocks in my portfolio too.
I have a couple of suggestions for you:

(1) Had seen your comment somewhere on IT pack…but post covid19, the entire world is going for Digitisation, WFH infrastructure development , cloud computing, the entire BFSI sector undergoing complete digitisation , cyber security, AI, machine learning etc…and look at Q1 2021 performance…in spite of the whole world lockdown…
Next few years it will be the IT sector which could give you descent returns…
IT is a defensive sector … No corporate governance issues…steady flow of revenues…
…

(2) I did not find any retail stock in your portfolio apart from Reliance … stocks you may explore DMart, Trent, Bata , Page industries, Relaxo …

(3) Post Covid19, India is well recognised as World’s Pharmacy.
A basket of Pharma stocks both domestic /export focus which may keep under watch … stocks like Dr Reddy’s, IPCA, Alembic, Abbott, Cipla…

Disclo: I have invested in some of these stocks. I may be biased .
I am not a SEBI registered stock advisor.

Thanks for your feedback.
TCPL here is Tata Consumer Products Limited.
I want to make some gains first after which I would like to venture into riskier bets.
As the current situation stands, it is like the big will get bigger.
So I am preferring the market leaders be it large, mid or smallcap segments.

Thanks for your feedback.

My replies to your points:

  1. Agree with your points. IT is good for consistent returns. But as you can see from my PF I am considering more on companies which generate at least 15%CAGR earnings growth. IT has not been reaching double digits due to immense competition. So as you can see there is no MOAT of Indian IT services company which can give them pricing power. Having said that I am invested in consumer tech companies like Indiamart and Infoedge which I feel have greater chances of growth.

  2. Retail companies I used to have Dmart, Trent, Bata. But sold them out as I felt that their footfalls will decrease in these times and hence pressure on margins will be there. But I still have relaxo in small quantities as I feel it is a small ticket discretionary item with big reach and with high growth rates it can somehow manage these times may be.

  3. I missed Abbott in that list. I have Dr lal pathlabs, divis labs and Abott in pharma space.
    I have bought huge quantity of DSP healthcare MF to avoid making my PF crowded as I feel in general the sector will do well.

Hi,

Current Portfolio

  1. Aarti Drugs
  2. Britannia
  3. Tata Consumer Products
  4. SBI Card
  5. MCX
  6. Muthoot Finance
  7. Reliance
  8. Escorts
  9. Indiamart
  10. Bajaj Finance
  11. Deepak Nitrite
  12. HUL
  13. Alkyl Amines
  14. Aarti Industries
  15. Divis Labs
  16. Garware Tech Fibres
  17. Navin Fluorine
  18. GMM Pfaudler
  19. Astec Life Sciences
  20. Laurus Labs

Suggestions Welcome

Thanks and Regards,
Jaisish

4 Likes

Hi,

Current Portfolio

  1. Aarti Drugs
  2. Britannia
  3. Tata Consumer Products
  4. Reliance
  5. Adani Green
  6. Muthoot Finance
  7. Asian Paints
  8. Escorts
  9. Indiamart
  10. CDSL
  11. Deepak Nitrite
  12. HUL
  13. Alkyl Amines
  14. Bajaj Finance
  15. Divis Labs
  16. Garware Tech Fibres
  17. Biocon
  18. GMM Pfaudler
  19. Astec Life Sciences
  20. HDFC Bank
3 Likes

Hi,

Current Portfolio in order of wwightage:

  1. Aarti Drugs
  2. Reliance
  3. Indiamart
  4. CDSL
  5. HDFC Bank
  6. Muthoot Finance
  7. Tata Consumer
  8. Wipro
  9. Biocon
  10. Alkyl Amine
  11. Deepak Nitrite
  12. Divis
  13. Escorts
  14. Bajaj Finance
  15. TCS
  16. Garware Tech Fibres
  17. Britannia
  18. HUL
  19. Astec Life Sciences
  20. Adani Green
1 Like

Hi I like most of the company example CDSL,HDFCBank,Tata consumer,Divis,TCS,HUL…Etc

Few pointers:-

You have TCS(IT supremo) then why wipro. Wipro already laggard in IT. You can add LTI or Infosys if you like secondary company. Dragger and growth both in same sector .

Garware tech fibre: sales single digit last 5 year but valuation went shot up due to recent attention to this company.Its looking like large midcap but growth engine not spinning as much.
Alkyl amine-> operating at maximum OPM and commanding like Asian paint or pidillete who proved in consumer space. This is chemical and involve B2B plus you have another chemical Deepak nitrate which also at its peak.(Pidillete,astrol,such kind of company missing)

Adani green: really I see this stock as pump & dump. Be carefull in this stock. 1.5Lakh mcap for profit less than 100 crore :blush:.

1 Like

Hi,

Wipro, Adani Green were part of my technicals based momentum investing which I have exited sometime back with good profits. I have an updated list of long term stocks which I will update soon.

Hi,

My current longterm PF looks like this.

Reliance
HDFC Bank
Kotak Bank
Bajaj Finance
Divis Labs
Indiamart
Alykl Amines
Deepak Nitrite
Infoedge
Tata Consumer
Asian Paints
Pidilite
PI Industries
Dr Lal Pathlabs
Garware Tech Fibres
Navin Fluorine
Astral Polytek
HDFC Life
HUL
Britannia
Polycab

5 Likes

Great set of stocks. Not sure of allocation on each stocks and overall look great.

Quality stocks. Great picks

But IT sector seems avoided? Any reason