To be frank, I have been closely watching on Saregama, Navin Flourine, Clean Science and Tata Elxsi and waiting to enter at better valuations. Current valuations does not give me comfort to enter.
I would prefer to miss the bus rather than get into it at current valuations.
Haven’t studied Neogen though.
it is true that valuation are way higher but, there is high chance that they could run further. and I suggest that you create a small case on your own by adding basket of stocks under multiple themes and do a opportunistic sip ( whenever you witness a 10-15% nifty fall ), and not to disturb the regular concentrated portfolio mix try to create a new acct with a different brokerage firm.
an example smallcase basket would be -
QSR
I provided a prospective in which I could think of, and it is not that I followed this investment strategy.
Also, just a quick suggestion, if you want to buy saregama, not completely sure, but wait until split. I have seen a lot of stocks who have gone -20% after split in recent times. Maybe that can give you a better opportunity to accumulate in a good amt.
but still, not 100% sure.
edit* : disc: invested and might be biased.
@aditya_chourasia decent portfolio brother. All the best for your investing journey.
Sorry for off topic discussion.
@Investing_Diaries I am just curious, what makes few topics/portfolios attract good responses, others with decent write up won’t get any response or suggestions!
Is it something to do with keeping it simple?
Or something else?
Others, feel free to respond.
I try to keep things simple. Same is with investing. Do not like motherson sumi for the same.
I have seen a lot of people going for 25-even 40 stocks. And their theis is like over my head. It’s like a clear gamble. so there is no use me, sharing my thoughts.
And the day I replied him, I was in a pissed off mood actually over my father’s portfolio for the same goldbees 
Well, his portfolio had some similar stocks to mine, I thought his mindset might match mine. He replied is a very good manner so did I.
Also, valuepicker needs some new features as well. Like pinning of a few important replies in the thread for the ones who cannot read the entire saga of if and but. So, I am not posting my portfolio for the same.
Also, my invested capital is negligible compared to the ones actually in the journey. And I feel like talking more with like minded people. And it feels good to help someone or someone who is going the wrong way.
Hope this is what you asked for 
in the question. much love.
Because, majority people can comprehend only simplistic and first level thinking and analysis. While very few can go to second order thinking. I dont claim to be either yet.
Thank you for response,
I agree with you that VP needs some features which can make this wonderful forum even better.
So, now am planning to use the portfolio topic as my diary ( as in your profile name) it serves better that way.
Thank you!
Do Advice how to start second level thinking!
Any good books for that!
I was seeking to understand lack of response for some decent topics!
Howard Marks
@Chins I was wrong in plotting Whirlpool’s Sales/Capital employed number. I should have subtracted cash from invested capital as cash balance is 70% of the book value (Strange!). Actual ROI is very high here. Here is what Sales/Capital employed chart looks like-
Sorry Guys for being inactive in forum, was having health issues . Fine Now
In this span of time i have Change my strategy and moved to cos which are growing at a fast phase, Have tailwinds.Thus have removed cos (Kajaria, Whirpool).
Although I was in a favors of keeping whirpool for a quite long time but as early investor I thought I can take some risk.
I have also created a family portfolio for my parent where i have moved cos(Piramal enterprise, PI industries, HCL, Tata Motors, HDFC bank, RHI magnesita) and added some more Bluechips cos(Divis, Baja finance,) which would be safer for my parents+ Some high risk cos like(Saregama, HCG, NH, KEI, Syngene,)+ Some good midcaps (clean science, Navin flourine, Varun beverages, Radico Khaitan, APL apollo).
My new portfolio is completely based on Variant perception mental model(High focus on tailwinds, growth)
Added some cos and thesis behind them
Moldtek Packaging:
1)Mold-Tek is an B2B Rigid plastic packaging industry Founded in 1985 by Mr J Lakshmana Ra(MD)o and Mr A Subrahmanyan(Deputy MD) and is the Leader In rigid Plastic Packaging.
What Campany Does?
Campany Manufacture Plastic related Items using In mold labelling Technology (IML)(sales:60%) for paints(Asian paints, Berger Paints,Kansai Nerolac, Apollo paints), oil & lubricant(5-7% growth)(sales:24%)(Customer: Castrol,Gulf,Bharat Petro,Reliance,HP,Indian Oil, Exon Mobil),Fmcg (ice cream box,Pumps like sanitiser , inhaler,shampoo Bottle)(sales: 18%)(Customer:ITC,P&G,Cadbury,Himalaya,Haldirams,Britannia,Amul,HUL,Nestle,Dabur,Parle)
IML Technology gives long Branding Life and Mold-tek is the Pioneer in it with 60% market share
10 Manufacturing faciltity with 41400 Tpa capacity
Moats: All mould, Robots used in labelling are produced in House
2) Strength: Extensive experience in plastic packaging, strong customer base with 100 Repaet Order, Innovation and in house development(Adoption of IML tech and Investing in R&D),Fully Backward integrated (use of robots Reduces their cost a Lot),Campany can pass prices Hikes
3)Future plans:Adding high value added products through both product & geographical expansion, entering new segment called injection blow Molding(IBM)(fast growing ,Precision,market Potential:5000 cr year, expected to reach 7-10 % , High margin business) Cater to pharma ,FMCG,cosmetics sector , opportunity size in IML is huge as Paints indutry has no tcompletely shift to IML,
Capex: raises 103.6 cr for expansion of capacity,Expanded Capacity In kanpur, Doubling its capacity in Mysore and Vizag,Opening New Facilities In Sultanpur
4) Key Risk:Sales 35% from asian paints(Not a Big Risk), Raw material price fluctuation(campany can pass on price hikes),dependence on End sector, Competition From Deep Polymer, Cello Wim plast, Time Technoplast,End user Industry Dependence, High Working capital Loans(Paise late aata hai )
5)Finacial :Cagr sales(5 year) : 22%, profit Growth Cagr(5 year):19 %,OPM=20%,ROCE=23.9%,ROE=22.2%,Debt to equity: 0.4,Reserves:Consistent increase in reserve
Size Of Opportunity:Growth In Long Term as more and more cos moved to IML,IBM(2-3 years)
Shivalik Bimetal:
1)Business of joining materials through different methods such as diffusion bonding, cladding, electron beam welding, solder re-flow and resistance welding. They can manufacture multi-gauge and multi-material strips. They primarily manufacture Shunts and Bimetals since 1985.
2) Bimetals: applications of Bimetals in electrical equipments like Circuit Breakers, Overload Relays, Energy Regulators, Light Flashers, Automatic Fuses, Pressure Gauges, Electric Iron, Coffee makers, Washing Machine, Baking Oven, Refrigerator, Water Heater, Fluorescent Light Starters and many similar areas. In Automotive, it’s used in Exhaust manifold Controls, Turn Indicator, Oil Pressure Gauges, Circuit Breakers, Oil Cooling Regulator.
3)Shunts: These are also Bimetal Strips only. It acts as a Resistor and made from two or more alloys consist of different Temperature Coefficient of Resistance (TCF).The demand of High precision Shunt is higher and growing rapidly. This is a key and basic passive component in Electric Vehicles, Electronics of an automobile, Robotics, Internet of Moving Things, Augmented Reality and vertical Farming. There are wide variety of resistors and many suppliers for it. But the specific shunts Shivalik manufactures are mainly used in battery Management Systems (BMS), Intelligent battery Sensors (IBS) and Energy meters. All three are high growth areas.
4)specific kinds of shunts they make (among many other varieties), there are only few major suppliers as its a niche product where they developed expertise over many years of in-house efforts in product development.
5) Have pricing power as shunts are required in Less Quantity , Critical Application Product in BMS,operating in market niche with specialized expertise
6) metals such as nickel and copper forming around 50% of overall cost, operating margin remains susceptible to volatility in commodity prices,90% market share in domestic shut industry
7) Growth trigger: India EV Market to grow at 37% CAGR between 2018-23, Semiconductor shortage, Can increase their export to us a lot,Putting hand in defense sector, good demand of products
RISK:- technological advancements or obsolescence or fall in price of product etc due to high competition
8) Customers: VISHAY dale electronics, export to usa, mexico
Key points from vauepickr: —>shunt resistors we were the first company to enter into shunt resistors. Gear and mechanical approval for vendors take at least 18 – 24 months while electronic approval takes 3 – 4 years.
—>Hall effect sensor are used for high current measurement vs shunk for low current , shunt measure accurate as campared to HE sensors.
Valuation: Entered in Okish valuation
RACL Geartech:
1)Company manufactures high-precision products (various types of transmission gears and shafts) for the premium segment and has reputed global majors such as BMW, Kubota, Piaggio, Yamaha, KTM, BRP Rotax etc. as its key customers.
2)Good growth in export sales
The export sales of the company are continuously increasing and have increased from 59 Cr in FY16 to 142 Cr in FY20 and it formed around 70% of total sales during FY20.
3)Revenue Breakup FY20 :Motorbike & Scooters – 47%,Tractors & Agriculture Equipment – 16%, 3 Wheeler – 14%, Recreational Vehicles (ATV & RTV) – 16%
4) capex: 50 cr
—>have Pricing power in export , in domestic we may suffer in pricing
—> In china regulation issue have let to shutdown although china has better tech than us
—>Value will come down for gears in EV but quality is many folds higher
—>For many of our customers, we are the sole suppliers for many of their products throughout their plant locations.
—>We keep on adding new customers every year
—>Domestic sales haven’t grown for us. Reason for it? The main reason is that we were late into Hero’s and Bajaj’s of the world and these companies have their family member’s company supplying to them.
---->Competition: Hitech Gears, Bharat Gears – majorly mass market players. Hitech gears is getting into new products. Hero Motors is our competitor.
---->Management quality sounds very well
----->RACL Geartech- A Microcap Gem – Phoenix Capital
Growth Triggers:Have to achieve sales growth of 500 cr till FY2025 management is confident about it,Keeps on adding new client every year, they cater to luxuary brand , Export can increase .
Risk:Slowdown in economy,Debt is higher than reserves
disc: Taking position might be good for next 5 years
Valuation : Found to be in range of cheap–> okish
NIIT:
1)a) Corporate learning group(CLG)/Management traning and services(MTS) Like learning technolgy, strategy sourcing, content &
curriculum. Used ony (79 % ROCE),CLG business is a Win win Business, North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
b)Skills& career group(SNC) ,These include Technology, Banking & Finance, Digital Marketing, Data Sciences & Analytics, Professional Life Skills, Business Process Excellence, and Multi-sectoral Vocational Skills. The Company provides these programs in India & China
2)Only Profitable edtech campany,Past history of Niit ws bad but they sold all their bad business, From FY 2023 You will see Roce=80%,Cash Generating Business(Turnaround) situation ,Concall Tell a lot ,Growing =25-30% , EBITDA margin=15-20%
3) Size of opportunity : less than 250 out of 1000 fortune campany outsource their tarining Therfore large Opportunity
4) Supply side Dominant player in world & largest palyer, customer grows from 39 to 58, Free cash Flow business
5)Demerger can happen Soon
RISK: Competiton from its peer like Aptech, Online learning Platform (udacity, coursera,udemy)
My some cos have a high percentage but would try to reduce it to around 8-10%.
Studying some more cos in Bearing sector, Affordable Housing Sector
Remaining percentage I have invested in US cos (Apple, microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Google, Amaon, S&P 500 ETF, Salesforces, Coinbase) Apple being highest in percentage (45% Approx) Which Brings my cash down to almost 0.
All types of suggestion regarding my Family Portfolio, My portfolio, US portfolio is highly appreciated.
Thanks in Advance and sorry for any mistakes in the Post
Really appreciate your looking back again in data and correcting yourself. Very few would look back at this data once they created the Charts…Does this mean you are tracking/interested in Whirlpool?
@KP2018 @Chins - I am no expert in accounting and lot of data points…some basic thoughts I have on Whirlpool, and since both of you presented very good points, would like to know what you think as well on these or any other business related points -
major presence in 2 segments - Washing machine & refrigerators. No significant traction in gaining share in any of these in last 2 years…however last 2 years have been difficult for industry and different players have reacted differently, which one has lasting advantage remains to be seen.
Supply side they seem to have advantage as mentioned by you in data points…but Why & How? I think that is important to know. I am not sure about that but just will share one aspect - 5-6 years back I was purchasing an AC and out of plethora of options, I chose a Whirlpool (It does not yet have any significant share in AC as far as I know). Why? Because then the only company which manufactured its own copper coil was Whirlpool. Rest all either imported it or used third party manufacturing. Also, Whirlpool seemed to have most models in Copper coil, unlike others which had majority in Aluminum coils. Relating this to data points - It seems they have integrated their back end manufacturing well in areas they operate.
Above would show me long term vision and character in a company.
Another aspect is “make in India”. Whirlpool can very well make India its manufacturing export hub for neighboring as well as Developed country markets. I remember reading they do have such intentions, not sure how much and fast they have or will execute this. Any insights welcome!
She might very well be right, today but I bought these for their potential of tomorrow.
They may very well perish among intense competition in India but that would be a pity on the massive potential they have here…
Disc: Invested in both, biased. I can be completely wrong in all my assessments. Post only to learn. Not eligible for any advice
Thank you @Investor_No_1 for the post. I am not tracking Whirlpool as it does not fit in my investing framework. Indeed its a strong business model with in-house manufacturing (economies of scale), strong operating performance, working capital days & cash conversion cycle almost negative. All of this leads to crazy high ROIC. But in my view paying 75x earnings for a business that has been growing at 8-10% does not make sense. I am not saying there is no way Whirlpool can grow at 20% → Recent capex will scale up refrigerator & washing machine productions & China+1 may boost exports as well. But then the competition is also scaling up. There are about 40 brands competing for Indian AC market which is why Whirlpool hasn’t been able to meaningfully scale up its AC sales. In fridge & washing machine segment, Whirlpool stands 3rd behind Samsung & LG but now HVAL & VOLT are taking up market share. Product concentration is a key risk here as refrigerator + washing machine constitute 85% of topline.
Even if you’re comfortable paying 75 PE for 20-25% growth (I am certainly not 
), why not look at a contract manufacturer like AMBER.
Lets do a quick reverse DCF to see what kind of growth is built in Whirlpool’s price. Prior to COVID, company has been generating ~400 cr free cash flow. If we consider this number as sustainable FCF that company can generate in years to come, assuming 12% discount rate, 2% terminal growth rate →
25% FCF growth is embedded in the price. With latest CAPEX, Make in India or China +1, is this kind of FCF growth achievable? Maybe Yes. I don’t know.
The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.
-Ben Graham
Hi Aditya, you have APL Apollo for long term in your family portfolio… just wanted to know the reasonings behind this as this is a cyclical stock and can be a risky bet…
Ok here is my thesis behind it
1)Apl apollo Consumes 2% of entire Indian steel production and is the single largest buyer so it get 2-3% discount on HRC steels from tata/ jindal as compared to its competitor.
2) It has 11 manufacturing units and 29 warehouses which ensures lower logistics cost by 4-8% as compared to its competitor(freight heavy items).
3)Lowest cost producer because of economies of scale.
4) Capable of Passing the prices of fluctuation of raw material(Concall)
5) Company has differentiated product portfolio and in 40-50% of its product portfolio it doesn’t face any competition as it is the only producer. it has close to 1100+ sku’s
6) Introducing high margin product in upcoming Raipur plant thus ebita per ton will improve.
7) From financials point of view it has Good sales and profit growth which is above 25% and is trading at an p/e of 36(when i purchased it ).A good growth company at a p/e of 36 seems good to me .
Many think it falls into cyclical category but if you look at 5 or 10 year CAGR sales and profit growth it is constantly growing at 25% . I think it should fall under fast grower category .
Even I am surprised by the comment that its under cyclical category. If we see its Price chart for long term…its a secular growth chart…not the cyclical up and down chart, barring 2018 to 2019 chart part
