My Investment Journey, Portfolio and Thoughts

Hello everyone

I see that a lot of people showcase their portfolios here on this website and share their learnings and insights. I wanna do that and have my little corner. And I really want to share my story.

My investing journey began nearly 10 years ago. After getting a Jio sim, I started using YouTube. I eventually came across Rich Dad Poor Dad book. I bought it and read it in December of 2016.

In January 2017, I set up an ETMoney account in my mom’s name and invested 50k in a mutual fund.

I initially wanted to go into real estate. That’s what the book encouraged. I was also watching Bigger Pockets around this time. But I quickly realised that what works in US doesn’t work here. You cannot pay the mortgage just from the rent money in India.

So I got into stock market. By the end of 2017, I had 4 to 5 Lakh invested in mutual funds. I had equity funds, balanced funds and debt funds.

I was transfering money from FDs and ULIP policies that my mom had to places of larger return.

I watched lots of Warren Buffett videos and other finance youtubers in 2017 and 2018.

We have a plot of land apart from our home. I wanted to sell it and invest that money in the stock market and make a living that way when I grow up.

I made a deal with my parents that I would get 1 crore when I got 18 years old. They didn’t do that. They didn’t trust me with that much money. So they made an excuse that I would get 1 L a month and they will give me money later in 2021 when they have it. That never happened but I kept getting 1 L a month or 12% interest on my promised capital starting September 2019.

Also in 2019, I got into direct equity, buying small amounts of HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries stocks.

I was mainly in debt funds when the pandemic crash happened because I was timing the market and believed the stock market was expensive. Another reason is that I was risk averse. This was hard earned money of my parents which was given to me and I did not want to lose it.

I started buying equity mutual funds on 3rd March and had invested 11 Lakh by 16th March. I had 14 Lakhs then and I didn’t invest any more, keeping the rest in short term bonds.

The market kept going down and I had a small panic attack or breakdown on 23rd March. That was coincidentally the day the market bottomed.

I was watching youtube channels such as Graham Stephan, Beat the Bush etc. I was also active in reddit forums. They were all negative about the recovery so younger me got influenced and I sold all my equity mutual funds in May 2020 for a profiit of 1.75 Lakh. I take full responsibility for that and have learnt my lesson.

I stayed in short term debt funds for a while and watched the stock market go higher and higher. Then towards the end of 2020, I started dabbling in individual stocks. I mainly bought cheap stocks such as Coal India, Rain Industries, Cupid, Cochin Shipyard, Rites, Manappuram Finance because I was influenced by The Intelligent Investor at that time.

I owned these particular stocks because they were the only attractive looking stocks I knew back then. In 2021 I came across PFC and REC from screener. They made immediate sense to me. Everyone was bearish on PSUs but I had no such bias and I liked them because of their extremely cheap valuations. So I bought them. I also bought two rice stocks - KRBL and Daawat. I sold other stocks and pretty much had a 4 stock portfolio. I was all in stocks by mid 2021.

2022 was bad for me. I was depressed and financially, my stocks were also down. I lost interest in stocks and didn’t even invest new money that I got monthly. I didn’t even do research apart from listening to concalls of my companies. My companies were the best so I didn’t need anything else.

Same mental rut happened in 2023. I did not invest money from Feb to August. One day in August of 2023, I checked the Kite app and discovered my net worth of over 1 crore. Those months of not investing on time cost me a lot of money.

I sold KRBL in November because it was not performing. My net worth hit 2 crore in December. LTFoods was getting expensive and PFC was much cheaper and going up. So I sold LTFoods in December at 220 rupees price.

I was regularly making 5 lakh, 10 lakh or 15 lakh in November and December. My head was full of it. I fell in love with my stocks. I did not need anything else.

Some other things that made me a strong believer : I did not believe that the Modi government could afford corruption charges so no phone banking like earlier times. I did not believe that management could siphon off money from the company. Also Vivek Kumar Dewangan of REC said that the company could grow profits at around 18% and stupid me believed him at that time. He retired shortly after and the company grew PAT at only 12%

PSUs also have a regulation where they have to give 30% of their profits which is used to fund government expenses. I loved it. Not only they gave 4 to 5% dividend yield, I could also expect the retained earnings to help increase the EPS by around 10-12% which is around nominal GDP growth.

I was heavily into FIRE : Financial Independence and Retiring Early at that time and these two were my retirement plan.

In 2024 I kept on buying each month and reinvesting my dividends at 400s range and at around 6 to 8 times earnings. The stocks and my whole portfolio was down around 25% on the day when Lok Sabha election results were announced.

Similar stocks such as IREDA and IRFC were over 30 times earnings. So that is why I didn’t sell and kept adding to them. I dreamt of them going to 18x PE and then I will sell. But that never happened. Both of their stock prices peaked in July and never came back and are still below that.

In October I came across Arman Financial. I liked it because it was growing much faster and had better return ratios. One thing that I really liked in Arman was that they raised equity at high PB causing the Book value to rise. This was absent in PFC and REC. I also realised the math ; Over the long term, i.e. 10 years, I will make much more money in Arman which might grow at 25 to 30% a year vs PFC and REC which might grow at 15% dividends included.

I did not want to sell my PFC and REC because I still believed in them so I took a loan from Zerodha Capital and bought Arman. I later soured on this because the loan tenure was only 1 year and that was not enough. So I sold Arman and paid off my loans.

Then in 2025, one day I was checking Zerodha Capital and they were now offering 3 year loans against securities. So I took one again. This time it was 40 Lakh.

In 2026 I was happy because PFC and REC were rising while the market was selling off. But later in May I came across some guy on Subtrack. I liked him and bought his portfolio service. I started buying the stocks that made sense to me from his pack. This time I sold PFC and kept on Arman. I later also added to Arman.

Then eventually now, around 40% of my portfolio is my stocks and the rest are his recommended stocks. I am satisfied with him so far. I won’t name him or his firm as this is my post and not an advertisement for him. I also paid off my loan because that would be too risky while investing in microcaps.

I will share my current portfolio but I won’t reveal his companies. That would be illegal and immoral.

Arman Financial - 26.21%

Emerald Finance - 7.95%

Nisus Finance - 5.53%

Five Star Business Finance - 1.15%

DP Abhushan - 0.40%

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You are right. I corrected it. :sweat_smile:

Hi guys today I will be sharing with you my checklist for investing. I came up with it in 2024 and have been using it since. It has helped me a lot and I hope that atleast someone finds it useful. I go through all these questions or points before making an investment.

+++ The Checklist +++

Do I understand the business and what the company does ? Can I make my mom (or a child) understand what the company does ?

Quality of management - Do I trust the management & are they competent ?

Quality of business - some industries have bad economics.

Am I firm in my conviction in the company ?

What is the growth potential & where will the growth come from ?

Is the valuation cheap enough ?

Are the current earnings sustainable ?

Can the earnings grow 20% a year ?

Earnings retained the past few years, what have they contributed to ?

  1. Is the book value higher ?

  2. Is it helping the company in some way ?

  3. Or do the company need them just to maintain their current position ? Which would indicate that it’s a bad business.

  4. Or it could be a temporary few years of trouble or a business downturn or increased competition.

What are the risks to the earnings ?

What are the risks to growth ?

Is the company gaining market share or losing market share ?

What is the TAM ? (Total Addressable Market) and how much of that can this company attain ?

Is it underowned & under appreciated or being completely ignored ? Is it talked about in media or social media ?

What is the available margin of safety or margin for error ? Actually calculate it!

Are the current earnings low or are they high and can they grow more from here ?

Is the growth cycle gonna come or continue ?

Is it contrarian ? Is there any bias against this company like there was with PSUs ?

Is it popular, a popular stock name ?

What can go wrong ?

What is the theme or the potential narrative for the upside, for it to go up ?

Am I early ?

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Your picks revolves around small/microcap financials. Any reason?.is this sector something in circle of competence due to your job or something?

Else, over concentration in one sector is not very safe unless you know the sector amd companies like back of your hand. Also 26% in one company too.

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I understand NBFCs much more than I understand other companies. At present only NBFCs and Jewellers are in my circle of competence.

That is why bias towards financials. But still they only make up 42% of my portfolio. The rest 58% is in other sectors.

Regarding why microcap financials, these were the most attractive companies that I could find. It’s that simple.

Regarding Arman, I have a lot of faith in that company’s management. And I have always concentrated. That’s why.

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Just read Gaurav bhai’s latest post on RBZ. I highly recommend it and I couldn’t have said it any better.

Also since he has now disclosed that he and his clients own a stake in RBZ Jewellers, I can now share that I own it too.

It is 10.16% of my portfolio. His recommended allocation is different than this. I like to concentrate when I find great opportunities and I can confidently say that this is a great one.

Not a recommendation for the stock or Nine One Capital. Do your own research.

PS - I now wonder whether the company can get to 20 stores by 2030. It already has plans for 8 stores by FY28 end and it has stated the plan to get big quick in Gujarat. And it will now leverage gold metal loans too. Fingers Crossed.

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Had written a post on Nisus Finance in early August. It is still relevant I believe. I hope you find it useful.

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Nisus Finance - The mini Blackstone of India ?

Hello everyone

Around 2 months ago I was doing research on smallcap stocks as usual and I came across this company Nisus Finance. It is a very peculiar company because it is rapidly growing at over 60% a year and yet is trading at only 6 times earnings. I was interested so I looked more deeply into it.

The company was founded and is owned by Amit Anil Goenka. He graduated and started working in late 90s or early 00s. He has worked at Ernst & Young, Knight Frank and Essel Finance earlier. He has lots of experience in finance and seems competent.

He wanted to work for himself so he founded Nisus Finance in 2013. He says he looked at lots of potential areas but found lucrative niche in real estate.

The company was listed in December of 2024 and the promoter owns 74% of it.

The company advises clients on real estate transactions in India. That generates stable source of income in the form of fees, usually around 2 to 3% of the transaction value. This was the core business and what they did from the get go.

They build on top of it with their asset management business. They have an AIF license and manage 2631 crore by FY 26 end. They operate in 2 geographies : India and UAE and have active funds to invest in both the markets.

There is a very strong correlation b/w advisory and investments income, they have said. They both aid each other and improve the company’s standing in the industry.

They charge 2 and 20 fees. That is a lot of money. (Although the performance fee is over a 12% hurdle rate)

They had 1000 crore AUM by FY24. So they are growing pretty fast. They actually had a target of 4000 crore AUM by FY26 but they missed it. They have a current target of 1 billion dollars AUM by FY28 end.

They have over 120 crore invested in their own funds so they have skin in the game. The returns in their funds are around 20%. They own secured senior level debt in their funds apart from discounted buyouts.

The company reviews over 60000 crore worth of project proposals annually. This volume allows it to cherry pick top tier investments for its funds.

They have said they can reach 20,000 crore of AUM this decade although this was before the Iran war crisis.

They have bought a construction EPC company NCCCL. It’s an old company doing business since 1946 which operates in western and southern India. It has had plenty of reputed clients like Prestige group, L&T reality, LIC etc.

“This acquisition provides Nisus with project takeover capabilities and distressed asset resolution capacity.” If a borrowing developer defaults, NCCCL can step in immediately as the general contractor to complete the project and protect capital. So it is key to controlling outcomes. He has also said that he knew the company for 15 years and the founder was 92 year old so he sold it.

The management also owns the company so has skin in the game. Amit ji pledged his own shares to get the loan to buy the company. Certain assets of the company were monetized and Nisus stake in the company was brought down as well to pay off the debt.

The stake is currently 54% and was 69% earlier.

Do note that the revenue shown in presentation is total. They only own about half of it.

…

Good things about the company :-

  1. It is an asset light business with very high ROE.

  2. India’s urban population will grow and has a long way to go. So the available TAM is huge.

  3. The business is scalable. It can grow exponentially.

  4. In December of 2027, they will be eligible to move to the mainboard of the stock exchange. This is good.

  5. Scarcity premium - They are the first and only private equity company listed in India.

…

Risks :-

  1. Look I am an individual investor and new to microcaps. A year ago I was a largecap only investor. I have heard you need to do on ground research for such small companies. I can’t do that. There is a legit chance this company could be a fraud. But that likelihood is small I think. They have regulatory licences in India and UAE. They have a credit rating of BBB+ by Care ratings. And also their purchases of large properties make the news. They have been featured in Times of India and in other industry news websites.

  2. The Iran war and the west asia crisis - They have said in Q4 earnings call that “We see no impact on our investment portfolio in the UAE.” but I think there will be an effect. The Q1 results and earnings call will happen in just a few days so we will see. But I believe UAE market will do fine in the long run. Also they have purchased good properties at high yields. So the downside if it happens, might not be large.

  3. Key Man risk - The promoter is really obese. You should see him. He can die tomorrow by a heart attack. Heart attacks are getting pretty common these days. There are ofcourse other people in the firm but I don’t think they are as good as him. I don’t see any mitigation of this risk. I guess we have to live with it and hope for the best.

  4. Short term earnings impact - Some of their investments in their own funds matured in last FY. The gain was booked as profits. So the reported PAT is a bit high. The same gains on investments will not reoccur in the new FY.

…

Conclusion

I really like this type of business, I think it has great prospects. But I don’t think they have a moat. Fund management is a commodity business. I view them as a lion who has to go and hunt each day to fill his stomach.

They had a peak or a high after listing like all companies do and then they came off a little. But before the Iran war, they were trading at 15 times earnings.

I now try to have a 2 to 3 year view in my stocks. I expect them to earn 100 crores in PAT. In my base case, they will be at 12 times earnings. ( Note that pre war they were at 15)

And if exuberance happens then I don’t see why not they shouldn’t trade at 20 times earnings like Motilal Oswal.

But I have learnt with blood and tears that the rerating we expect seldom happens. They should trade at high PE but will they ? I don’t know

What I do know is that I am making an asymmetrical bet where I can’t lose much and stand to gain a lot if things go right.

Stock market is also very moody. The clouds of this West Asia conflict will definitely go away one day.

…

Disclaimer - I do own the stock and I am biased. I bought 10k shares at 210 rupees. And it is around 6.33% of my portfolio.

1 Like

Want to share 2 videos on Nisus Finance. They are pretty insightful I believe.

Showed my portfolio to 2 AI models and asked for these ratios. Both of them came up with the same numbers so they seem correct.

These are weighted average and weighted median numbers for my entire portfolio.

Average PE = 17.34

Median PE = 14.58

Average PB = 2.69

Median PB = 1.97

Average Mcap to Sales = 2.23

Median Mcap to Sales = 1.85

This is good. I’m happy with these valuations. I wish Zerodha provided this data by default but they don’t.

I track 2 smallcap mutual funds, Nippon and Bandhan and my valuation metrics are better and comparable respectively.

This is despite my portfolio being higher growth one.

I have calculated that 71.47% of my portfolio is expected to grow at atleast 25% a year. The rest are slower growing or cyclicals.

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Made notes to share with you all. They are from Siddharth Bhaiya, a great investor that I admire a lot.

At the bottom of the bear market, all your stocks will look wrong and at the top of the bull market, everyone looks like Warren Buffett

Stress - don’t wanna die in my 40s

Majority of small caps are junk

Buy industry leaders only, either #1 in the country or the most efficient

Don’t go beyond top 1000 companies by revenue and profitability - that would be 91.23 cr of pat

Buy them at a significant discount to value

Mcap to sales low like 0.6 times, best if you buy below 0.3 times

Bought Apar at 300cr but it was an industry leader, bought Avanti feeds at 90cr mcap

Understand cyclicality, not done anything for 10 years

If you don’t get such opportunities, you can always wait

If you want a multibagger, you need to hold it for a long time.

Don’t do DCF discounted cash flow, it doesn’t work in real life.

At peak profitability, you get peak PE multiples and at bottom profitability, you get bottom PE multiples.

16 stocks 6% each

It’s only when you own a stock, that you actually do research.

If they (cyclicals like heg) make money, don’t look at them for 10 years. Promoters will put in new capacity and then there will be overcapacity.

Sell on valuations, euphoria

You dont sell only at the top, sell along the way.

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