I guess we anyways have to wait till LTV go back to 75% for Banks
NCD fraud issue is not yet solved
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I believe it was revised to 75% in 2021. According to the official circular, it was only till March 31, 2021
https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=11944&Mode=0
Not sure if anything else was released after this, cant find it.
Main stream media not talking abt it due to their worry of advt revenue. But independent media should hv reported this issue when again they tapped market when defaulted in honouring previously matured NCDs.
Watch from 7 minute
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How should one judge the sell-off of debentures by the promoter group yesterday?
can you please share the news source of the sell off ?
Please share details of the sell-off.
Listed bonds/NCDs have to compulsorily deduct tax on the interest paid from 1st April onwards. Plus more impact comes from the fact that LTCG with indexation benefits on debt funds are going away. Maybe they are expecting lack of liquidity in these NCDs going forward. Maybe they will move these funds to debt funds to lock in the benefit before 1st April.
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With NCDs being one of the main sources of cash for lending business, the recently made changes to the addition of TDS and indexation removal, would impact the acceptance of NCDs going forward. Post tax return would be almost similar to that of FDs and retailers wouldn’t be much inclined to take risk on NCDs.
It would be hard for companies to raise cash on NCDs going forward.
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Insider trading updates for 2023-03-26
| Company | Person | Person Category | Holding pre transaction | Num of Shares | Value (Lakhs) | Transaction type | Holding post transaction | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | ALEXANDER GEORGE | Promoter Group | 186667 (9.08) | 105616 | 1595.07 | Disposal | 81051 (3.94) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | ANNA ALEXANDER | Promoter Group | 117695 (5.73) | 66592 | 1005.71 | Disposal | 51103 (2.49) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | EAPEN ALEXANDER | Promoter Group | 78463 (3.82) | 44395 | 670.48 | Disposal | 34068 (1.66) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | ELIZABETH JACOB | Promoter Group | 117695 (5.73) | 66592 | 1005.71 | Disposal | 51103 (2.49) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | GEORGE ALEXANDER MUTHOOT | Promoter & Director | 200000 (9.73) | 113160 | 1709 | Disposal | 86840 (4.22) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | GEORGE JACOB MUTHOOT | Promoter & Director | 200000 (9.73) | 113160 | 1709 | Disposal | 86840 (4.22) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | GEORGE ALEXANDER | Promoter Group | 78463 (3.82) | 44395 | 670.48 | Disposal | 34068 (1.66) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | GEORGE MUTHOOT GEORGE | Promoter Group | 129437 (6.3) | 73236 | 1106.05 | Disposal | 56201 (2.73) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | GEORGE MUTHOOT JACOB | Promoter Group | 156926 (7.63) | 88789 | 1340.94 | Disposal | 68137 (3.31) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | GEORGE THOMAS MUTHOOT | Promoter & Director | 200000 (9.73) | 113160 | 1709 | Disposal | 86840 (4.22) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | SARA GEORGE | Promoter Group | 184361 (8.97) | 104312 | 1575.37 | Disposal | 80049 (3.89) | Off Market |
| MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD. | SUSAN THOMAS | Promoter Group | 117695 (5.73) | 66592 | 1005.71 | Disposal | 51103 (2.49) | Off Market |
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This is strange!
Why are promoters selling shares at such low prices??
If they belong their business they should be buying instead at multi year low valuations.
these are debenture transactions, not shares
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Very good jump in share price on very high volumes…from last few times…May be some institutional buying is happening. But I am wondering, the competitive intensity has increased, with lots of PSU and private banks entering into gold loan…why big hands are entering this stock? What I am missing here?
Disclosure: I am holding it from last 2 years , currently down by 19% and waiting for my cost price to make an exit. Anti-thesis pointer is as above
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Please read concall of manappuram to know about competitive intensity in gold loan industry. There is pie for everyone to eat. Cake size is very large. All what matters is how you penetrate the under penetrated market. Customer taking gold loan from bank are very much different from those taking loans from NBFC. Speed of execution of processing gold loan also matters a lot.
Disclosure: Its my conviction based on my studies. May be I am wrong in my thesis. Holding manappuram from 89 levels and continue to add. All anti thesis are welcomed.
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Are you holding only manappuram or Muthoot too? If not, then why? As i see, Muthoot is more pristine Gold financier than Manappuram
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Only holding manappuram due to its cheap valuation and for better diversification in revenue mix.
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My anti thesis would be
- I am not convinced on either banks will take away market share or muthoot/manappuram will take back what is actually theirs. I am confused more than ever. So staying away from both(I do have position in IIFL, which is growing gold loan book whereas muthoot and manapuram not growing their book)
- I am not worried about SBI/HDFC ramping up gold loans, but i am worried about equitas/Ujjivan/CSB ramping up gold loans
- Muthoot/Manappuram’s margin are too juicy for competitors to start a price war. We call valuation is cheap and this is purely based on P/E. If price war starts, muthoot choose to lower their yield to 16-17%, then suddenly PAT drops, RoE drops, P/E increases and the whole concept of cheap is go for a toss.
- RBI’s mercy to open new branches
- Average other verticals like homefin, MFIN,…
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