Mudit's Portfolio (Stage Analysis + Price Momentum)

I believe they have given a very good rally for past couple of months. May be “Buy on Dip” can be the strategy.

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Hindalco looks good, others have rallied out.?

On the metal & mining stocks, results envisaged for next 12 to 24 months to a large extent has already been priced in. But the commodity super cycles last for longer than 5 years & still good 3 years are left at the least in this cycle. This segment has the maximum weightage in my portfolio with only 3 stocks Coal India, NMDC & Hindustan Zinc, built last 9-12 months and is already more than 2x.

I don’t fancy any strong moves in next 12 months, rather will be looking to add more in other mining on a 20-30 % correction from current levels, if an opportunity strikes.

I rank NALCO above Hindalco and will be equal weight with Hind Copper. Hind Copper, NALCO & GMDC will be in my buy list on sharp corrections.

Not holding any position in other segments, hence no comments.

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@Lakshmi_Narasimhan_B Are you not worried about Hindustan Zinc? Shady promoter and hardly 5% freefloat after promoter+Govt holding? Its going like rocket…isnt it scary?

Yesterday many pharma companies outperformed Nifty 500 index
GlaxoSmithKline by 5.6%
Glen Pharma by 3.64%
Divis labs by 3.22%
Syngene inten by 2.98%
Eris lifesciences by 2.14%
Aurobindo by 2%

Seems tide is changing for pharma sector, slowly

When entire pharma sector is down, Aurobindo pharma has given 110% returns in last 1 year and sales and Eps has been very good in last 4 quarters…As per my sense, if pharma starts running, Aurobindo will be a leader among them.

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I already have a huge position in Silver before venturing into HZ. Silver is a turnaround commodity and pretty much still at the start of its bull run. I bought HZ purely as a proxy for silver knowing it will outperform the metal once the cycle sets in. With less than 2% free float, prices are for sure susceptible for manipulation.

As long as the company generates free cash flows and consistently pay dividend, the fundamentals cannot be rigged by promoters. Excessive dividend payouts were a concern in the recent years. Payout % should come down drastically in future as the profits begin to improve.

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dear mudit, don’t you think defence and raiway stocks are overbought and over valued…which stocks from these sectors are you holding and are you comfortable with their valuations…

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Hi Mudit , how do you use Value Pickr for your research , i see here people present their research on the stock ? is there a specific place where we can check the new research on growing themes etc ? I am new to value pickr hence asking for some guidance on how to navigate

@Shakti_Srivastava
Yes, they are overvalued and overbought. I have some in my portfolio, which is just few posts above. Momentum strategy mostly try to ride such stocks and whenever tide turns, comes out of it.

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@Parth_Chokhawala
You can go to Topic section and start reading latest replies to different company topics. You will come across many new themes and new companies, where ppl are discussing and debating.

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Sir Which stock is better in between
LTIM, TATA ELAXI AND HAPPIESTMIND

Right now IT sector itself is in downtrend or sideways…So i dont hold any of the IT sector stocks. But I used to hold LTI mindtree and Tata Elxsi.

thank you @Mudit.Kushalvardhan for the guidance

I still feel IT sector has bottomed out. Once the interest rate comes down, IT will be again the flag bearer, which may not happen this year as well

When the bridge comes we will cross over.

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I think, since this week has been volatile and still there is uncertainty about govt formation and govt policies, many investors are taking temporary shelter in defensive sectors like fmcg , auto etc. But this may not give true picture of forthcoming winners as this may be temporary and may last for few weeks or months, till the new govt budget is declared. Once govt policies are in place, we will be in a position to predict future winning sectors and future leaders of those sectors.

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I have entered in
Balkrishna Industries and MPS ltd.
Looking at Vijaya Diagnostic and Aurobindo pharma.
All four have shown strength in the light of overall market weakness.
Also these are not dependent on govt policies or orders hence resilient to any changes in that.
I exited all psu, defence and railway stocks, including green energy and power before exit polls. Re-entered only in JSW energy on 4th.

Disclosure - I am not a SEBI registered Advisor. This is not a recommendation for buy or sale. Pls do your own analysis before investing. I can be wrong in my analysis.

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Right thing to do, we may expect some rupee depreciation going forward, Govt Capex will be lower for sure which may take all Modi stocks down by 30-40 % from here, auto anc, FMCG, Consumption is theme as crude price may drop.

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I think this was yoir first momentum investing trade and change of sectors afyer you revamped your investing strategy. How has the returns been in terms of allocation to these sectors and cags returns? Thanks!

Frankly it didnot reach the CAGR level as period was less than 1 year ( hardly 2-3 months). But some stocks gave very good returns. Cohin shipyard, Jupiter wagons gave around 60% returns in a very short time. Bharat Electronics also gave good returns. Apar , HBL power and EIhotel didnot perform, rather my entry was wrong…so I sold them 1 week before results.

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