Its a good one. Now people are recognizing it. I think it should re-rate from here and can go though all time high.
Has anyone of us analyzed the Sep quarter results of Mold Tek Packaging?
The scrip has been declining steadily post results
Unfortunately I have not been able to analyze them
Q2FY26 Concall Updates
• EBITDA Per Kg at 40.61 Vs 36.73 in H1FY26 Vs H1FY25.
General Business Updates
• Q2 and Q3is generally a low volume quarter. The company has handled the highest ever Q2 number of SKUs in this time – 3350. Very confident in Q4 to be good quarter as production start in Panipat and order execution has started for both pharma and FMCG.
• GST being announced in August, and effective in September there was lull in September and order started coming in after GST implementation.
• H1 3-4% improvement in realization - also depends on product mix. EBITDA increased due to pharma and Food/fmcg.
• Confident to maintain 40 per kg - Q3 will be similar to Q2 and Q4 will be similar to Q1.
• Realization for Food and FMCG below 300 (309 and now 300 in Quarter)
• Some competition - addition of few small players but being centralized in Hyderabad was disadvantage as freight cost and time to delivery would be higher. so small players have emerged, Pricing wise some drop but still much better than paints.
Outlook
• For Food and FMCG, Outlook is better as new location (Panipat) will add from Q3 onwards and new shapes are being introduced.
• Hopeful to achieve 10% volume growth in Paints. But growth is real coming from Qpacks and Food/FMCG containers.
• Volume growth is 6% while sales growth is 9% that is due to better mix change and realisation improvement from Food/fmcg/qpacks and pharma segment.
• Sweet packs have pickedup despite gst due to festive season.
• Food and FMCG growth will be sustained as panipat operations have come live.
Paints
• In Q1 decent growth, Q2 has been muted despite ABJ ramup - Last year same quarter was 21% growth in paints but this quarter is only 3% but pentup demand will be there and will go up from november/december.
• Slowdown in monsoon has also impacted the lubes segment.
• Grew 17% - 20% in value for BirlaOpus and rest of the people are infact flat or negative (in terms of modlteks sale to them)
• In overall paints - Asian paints continue to be more than 60% and 20-25% from Birla Opus - revenue contribution.
• Q2 - severe Rains and GST has impacted the capacity utilization thus affecting EBITDA to some extent.
Pharma Number
• INR 35 cr in FY26 is easily acheivable.
• INR 55-60 cr in FY27 for Pharma
• INR 90 cr pharma - is easily achievable in FY28
• EBITDA per Kg would be at least 100 per Kg being conservative.
• EV tubes, caps and bottles are major contributor for Pharma as of now. Cannister once it takes off, it will be highly profitable. Will take off in future quarters.
• Currently Pharma clients are more than 20-25 - Laurus and MSN - small commercial orders but have huge potential
• more than 40 to 50 varieties of bottles and 10 varieties of caps. - eyedrop- cough drop - currently candid bottle caps and EV tubes mainly and little bit from cannisters.
• In Pharma achieved over 50% capacity utilization. Further capacity expansion across product mix is planning by Q3 of 2026. Optimum Capacity Utilization - 75-80% crossing is good after which new capex.
• more than 60 visited, around 30 have approved and audited and 20-25 started buying - biggest client would be 10% max contribution otherwise this is essentially the widespread.
• New Customer - Bagged new order from Veedol Corporation, Devee Agencies, Rallis India Limited, Ava Cholayil Health Care, Sri Balaji Process etc. are from the food industry and Pharmaforce, are from the Pharma Industry.
Paints Business Update
• ABJ tonnes - 10K tonnes capacity and done 2900 tonnes in H1, thus will be around 60-65% utilisation for ABJ this year. - grew 24% YoY and in H1 86% QoQ.
• Ex of Grasim, Asian paints drop would be 2-3% or even flat.
• Other Paints is 4% growth and Akzo would be flat.
• Next Gen IML Introduced meaning - Brought in all operations under one roof in Sultanpur Hyderabad (printing) and their operations started in august or September so production cost can come down by some more percent - From 22Rs per KG cost will have 1RS per kg benefit
Guidance
• Aiming to do 12% volume growth in terms of tonnes.
• In terms of sales value aiming to hit 12%-15%.
• On lubes - bit skeptical - coming with more mileage per litre, so lubricant consumption now growing that much.
• Paints - confident that growth will come.
• IML - 75% and Non-IML - 25% In Volume terms
• In Value terms it would be IML = 77% And Non- IML = 23%
CAPEX
• Around 100 cr Capex vs. avg of 140 cr capex last 3 years. In this, Maintenance will be close to depreciation around = 40cr
• Acquired 2nd half acres land for pharma - greenfield and rest would be brownfield. - Capacity to increase from 1500 tones to 2500 tones - happens in progression and not in one shot. (15-20% can increase capacity every year)
6 Likes
| Plant | State | Key Segments | Capacity (MT) | Utilisation FY25 | CAPEX Spent (₹ Cr) | Revenue Contribution (Est.) | Why Set Up / Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sultanpur – Hyderabad (Block A + Pharma) | Telangana | FMCG + Pharma + Printing | ~7,000 MT (incl. 2,600 MT Pharma IBM) | Pharma 50%, FMCG ~60% | ₹100–110 Cr (66 Cr till FY23 + 40 Cr FY24) | 14–18% of revenue | Pharma clean-room + printing hub. Under-utilisation in Pharma due to long approval cycles. |
| Panipat (ABG Grasim Paints) | Haryana | Paints + FMCG (FY26) | ~3,000–4,000 MT | 25–35% | ₹40–50 Cr | 6–8% | Built exclusively for ABG Paints. Slow offtake caused low utilisation. |
| Cheyyar (ABG Grasim) | Tamil Nadu | Paints | ~3,000 MT | 25–35% | ₹35–40 Cr | 5–6% | ABG location. Volumes improving but below plan. |
| Mahad (ABG Grasim) | Maharashtra | Paints | ~3,000 MT | <10% (just started) | ₹35–45 Cr | <2% | ABG location – last of 3. Will only contribute FY26 onward. |
| Daman | UT | FMCG + IML + Q-pack | ~7,500 MT | 75–85% | ₹30–35 Cr (incl. thin-wall expansion + second plant) | 12–15% | Western India FMCG hub + exports. High utilisation, strong margins. |
| Mysore | Karnataka | Paints + FMCG | ~3,000 → 4,000 MT | 70–80% | ₹20–25 Cr | 8–10% | Asian Paints supply-chain integration. Mature plant. |
| Vizag | AP | Paints + FMCG | 3,000 → 4,000 MT | 70–80% | ₹20–25 Cr | 8–9% | Asian Paints Vizag cluster. |
| Satara | Maharashtra | Paints + FMCG | ~2,000–3,000 MT | 65–75% | ₹15–20 Cr | 6–7% | Pidilite & Berger volumes surged (IML shift). |
| Annaram | Telangana | Multi-segment | 8,750 MT | 70–80% | ₹10–15 Cr | 8–9% | Legacy plant, stable utilisation. |
| Dommarapochampally | Telangana | Multi-segment | 3,500 MT | 60–70% | ₹5–7 Cr | 3–4% | Legacy, flexible production. |
| Jeedimetla | Telangana | Lubes + FMCG | 2,000 MT | 60–70% | ₹5 Cr | 3% | Older unit; lubricants hub. |
| Hosur | Tamil Nadu | FMCG | 750 MT | 70% | ₹3 Cr | 1–2% | South FMCG support. |
| Mendak | Telangana | Paints/Lubes | 1,500 MT | 60–70% | ₹3–4 Cr | 1–2% | Back-end support plant. |
| Kanpur (Planned) | UP | FMCG + Q-pack | - | NA | NA | NA | North India dairy + FMCG cluster. |
9 Likes
MOU worth 25 - 30 million USD (possible revenue over 5 years) in pharma packaging .. seems a launch pad for multifold exports revenue going forward.
9 Likes
Company’s execution paints has been subpar despite putting significant capex…
| Fiscal Year | Guidance / Commentary Given at Start/During Year | Actual Execution / Outcome | Management Excerpt / Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | Guidance: Expected recovery post-COVID lockdowns. Asian Paints’ volume was expected to normalize. Status: Achieved (Recovery) |
Outcome: Recovered from the massive Q1 slump (-51%). Asian Paints recovered faster than peers. Indicator:  |
Asian Paints case we see that number is picking up really from June… even in July it is as good. (Aug 2020) |
| FY22 | Guidance: Very Bullish. Guided that Asian Paints committed to ramp up usage from 3,000 tons to 14,000 tons by FY24. Predicted 15-20% CAGR for the company. Status: Missed |
Outcome: Paint volumes did not scale as projected. Growth was muted compared to the explosive guidance. Competitors (like Hitech) retained higher wallet share with Asian Paints. Indicator:  |
Asian Paints… promised to ramp it up to almost 14,000 tons by 23-24… they themselves are going to give us a sizeable growth. (Nov 2020 / July 2021) |
| FY23 | Guidance: Projected ~10% growth for Paints. Betting on capacity expansions at Mysuru and Vizag. Status: Missed |
Outcome: Paints segment volumes remained flattish or saw a minor decline. Value growth was visible due to RM price hikes, but volumes stagnated due to stiff competition in non-IML pails. Indicator: |
We are still not looking at anything beyond 8%, 9% growth [revised down]… because our last couple of years’ experience shows that growth is restricted. (May 2023) |
| FY24 | Guidance: Expected strong recovery with Aditya Birla Group (ABG/Grasim) entry. Target to supply 3,000-4,000 tons to ABG. Asian Paints expected to bounce back. Status: Severely Missed |
Outcome: Paint volumes declined by ~15%. Reasons: Asian Paints Satara plant shutdown (maintenance) + Company stopped servicing low-margin small clients + Delayed ABG commercialization. Indicator: |
The main drawback is in the paint segment… 8.7% drop… mainly due to one of our plants at Satara… running under 50% capacity. (Aug 2023) Paint is down by 15% for the full year. (May 2024) |
| FY25 | Guidance: Guided for Double Digit Growth (rebound from FY24 low base). Banking on ABG ramp-up (5,000 tons capacity created) and Asian Paints moving more brands to IML. Status: Partially Met / Recovery |
Outcome: Grew 6.8%. While it reversed the negative trend of FY24, it missed the double-digit aspirational target. ABG volumes ramped up, but Asian Paints volume remained flattish. Indicator:  |
Another positive development is a de-growth of paint industry, which was a 6.7% drop last year, has become 6.8% growth in this current financial year. (May 2025) |
| FY26 | Guidance: Targeting 10% growth. Betting on Asian Paints shifting mass-volume brands to IML and continued ABG ramp-up. Status: Work in Progress (Started Weak) |
Outcome (H1 FY26): Grew only ~2% in Q2. Impacted heavily by extended monsoons/rains. ABG (Birla Opus) growing handsomely (17-20%), but base legacy business remains sluggish. Indicator: |
I am confident our numbers can become positive… confident of a 10% growth in Paint segment in the next financial year [FY26]… but Q2 growth is hardly 2% [due to rains]. (May 2025 / Oct 2025) |
5 Likes
The indicator has moved from red to yellow. Will it turn green?. Maybe when AP does well