@vikas_singh A couple of questions.
Is there a possibility of a regulatory intervention like the CERC notification currently shaking the mere monopoly status of IEX eventually impacting it’s share price?
NSE/BSE already have license to trade commodities. It is not impossible but isn’t easy to steal the “liquidity” from MCX. Government has less moral obligation to fix a single price for a trader buying a commodity compared to a state DISCOM buying electricity to keep the lights on. So both cannot be compared.
Only risk is SEBI might introduce stricter rules. If they decide that retail investors are taking too much risks in options, they could hike margins. Easy volume and hence transaction fees will evaporate.
Very bullish mgmt in conf call.they are expecting new growth area which is base metal. Volatility does help them and feb has been good in terms of revenue
Commodities would add 20 -25% from here on in revenue. They have electricity also and I think that can become really big though margin would be less .
Pretty much on track to post 500 cr quarterly profit in JFM 26 q and possible 2500-3000 crore profit in fy27 .
Volume is down by 50-60% after Jan, this quarter mcx might do only 550cr-600cr less than the previous quarter. Next quarter will be in the normal range 300-400. The stock will tank; it should go down from here on. The silver margin is 65%, and trading activity severely hampered by margin
Please look at revenue per day. We are comparing 40 days vs 90 data in above table.
Revenue per day is almost 50% up qoq when last q was life time best quarter fir mcx as company.
In jan avg day is 15cr. Now, they are doing 7-8cr per day 50% down compared to jan. just check last 5 days volume. people traded commodity when price going up every day, but oncethe price is down retailaer made a loss. Silver is 50% down from its peak. Lots of retailers lost money. plus now silver is down mcx will get less revenue on silver option & future because premium collected on option and future contract will be less because silver price is fallen.
I have tried calculating revenue of MCX based on Rs 420/Cr for futures turnover and Rs 8360/cr for options premium turnover. I am not sure about the exact fee charged by MCX , but reached to this no based on the calculation done by Vikas_Singh and Krishna_7. Though revenue has reduced for last few days , even if MCX is able to do 9 cr/day revenue which translates to 540 cr/qtr revenue , I think current valuation can sustain(±10%) considering exchanges get 40-50 pe.
| Date | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 01-Feb-26 | 6.93 |
| 02-Feb-26 | 19.51 |
| 03-Feb-26 | 12.24 |
| 04-Feb-26 | 13.71 |
| 05-Feb-26 | 13.04 |
| 06-Feb-26 | 11.60 |
| 09-Feb-26 | 9.47 |
| 10-Feb-26 | 7.68 |
| 11-Feb-26 | 9.39 |
| 12-Feb-26 | 9.87 |
Yes, no upside. if silver or gold falls more then we will see downside
I am not sure about the stock price.however confident that revenue and profit would be much higher in fy27 over fy26. Volatility does help in higher income .this is re iterated by mgmt too. Higher price also does. New products would also helps in more revenue and slowly more entity and individuals will trade commodity. Mcx has reduced margin requirements which I believe was one of biggest reason for reduced trading volume MCX, NSE withdraw additional margins on gold and silver futures from today - The Economic Times
Almost all commodities are showing technical strength in chart. Let’s see how it unfolds over current and next 4 quarter.
And gold., silver is now again moving up. If this trend continues , mcx will.keep growing its profits handsomely.
Crossed 600crs revenue and still 2 weeks left, on track to beat 700cr easily.
And with last few days volatility again march month started well with daily average of 15crs
The way I look at is that almost 20% of trading days are remaining in current quarter and there is good chance of adding 200 cr revenue and hence crossing 800 cr revenue . This commodity upcycle and volatility is here to stay for more than 4 to 6 q from here.
