@vikas_singh A couple of questions.
Is there a possibility of a regulatory intervention like the CERC notification currently shaking the mere monopoly status of IEX eventually impacting it’s share price?
NSE/BSE already have license to trade commodities. It is not impossible but isn’t easy to steal the “liquidity” from MCX. Government has less moral obligation to fix a single price for a trader buying a commodity compared to a state DISCOM buying electricity to keep the lights on. So both cannot be compared.
Only risk is SEBI might introduce stricter rules. If they decide that retail investors are taking too much risks in options, they could hike margins. Easy volume and hence transaction fees will evaporate.
Very bullish mgmt in conf call.they are expecting new growth area which is base metal. Volatility does help them and feb has been good in terms of revenue
Commodities would add 20 -25% from here on in revenue. They have electricity also and I think that can become really big though margin would be less .
Pretty much on track to post 500 cr quarterly profit in JFM 26 q and possible 2500-3000 crore profit in fy27 .
Volume is down by 50-60% after Jan, this quarter mcx might do only 550cr-600cr less than the previous quarter. Next quarter will be in the normal range 300-400. The stock will tank; it should go down from here on. The silver margin is 65%, and trading activity severely hampered by margin
Please look at revenue per day. We are comparing 40 days vs 90 data in above table.
Revenue per day is almost 50% up qoq when last q was life time best quarter fir mcx as company.
In jan avg day is 15cr. Now, they are doing 7-8cr per day 50% down compared to jan. just check last 5 days volume. people traded commodity when price going up every day, but oncethe price is down retailaer made a loss. Silver is 50% down from its peak. Lots of retailers lost money. plus now silver is down mcx will get less revenue on silver option & future because premium collected on option and future contract will be less because silver price is fallen.
I have tried calculating revenue of MCX based on Rs 420/Cr for futures turnover and Rs 8360/cr for options premium turnover. I am not sure about the exact fee charged by MCX , but reached to this no based on the calculation done by Vikas_Singh and Krishna_7. Though revenue has reduced for last few days , even if MCX is able to do 9 cr/day revenue which translates to 540 cr/qtr revenue , I think current valuation can sustain(±10%) considering exchanges get 40-50 pe.
| Date | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 01-Feb-26 | 6.93 |
| 02-Feb-26 | 19.51 |
| 03-Feb-26 | 12.24 |
| 04-Feb-26 | 13.71 |
| 05-Feb-26 | 13.04 |
| 06-Feb-26 | 11.60 |
| 09-Feb-26 | 9.47 |
| 10-Feb-26 | 7.68 |
| 11-Feb-26 | 9.39 |
| 12-Feb-26 | 9.87 |
Yes, no upside. if silver or gold falls more then we will see downside
