I will not hijack the thread of Mazagon Dock and go off topic.
Valuepickr has a wealth of information already so researching it across the forum and forming an opinion makes sense. Also , personally I am not bullish on Drone sector as a whole considering that it is not a business which has any entry barriers and I cannot reliably judge on how these companies are going to protect their competitive advantages in case of competition.
The only allied sector I am bullish on closely linked to Drones is the Geospatial Mapping / 3D Mapping / Digital Twins / Digital Control Centers . This sector is niche , has good government backing and support and on a longer term all the companies listed in this space would get a good share of the pie.
Again this is my personal views and I am not an expert on the Drone Sector as a whole . Form your own opinion.
Mazgaon Dock is uniquely placed - makes everything in shipping
Cargo vessels (commercial Shipping)
Offshore Platforms
Destroyers
Submarines
Frigates
Corvettes
Undertakes repair and maintenance of all kinds of ships
Currently as of May, 2024, China’s Naval Fleet size in Indian Ocean is more than 3 times than that of India. If we talk about only submarines, China has 71 submarines in Indian Ocean as against 20 of ours. So if India has to defend its position in Indian Ocean , India does not have a choice but to increase warships and submarines, going forward
Apart from warships and submarines, MDL also makes commercial vessels. it has so far made 801 vessels of which only 27 are warships. India has 1% market share in Global commercial shipping industry. The entire shipping industry is working on energy transition to run on Green Ammonia, Green Hydrogen , renewables.
This stock has rallied way too much and has now slowed down along with the defence sector as a whole.
I had taken delivery of this at 260-310 levels back in 2021 and am still holding them.
But looking at the way in which it rallied in the last 2-3 years I am doubtful that the stock will generate any meaningful returns (until the dust settles atleast).
Opinions?
.
Currently trading at 4000 levels but has previously touched 5800 earlier this year.
I had also entered from similar levels and I am still holding.
I agree , the kind of growth it has given , we may not see these kind of growth in future.
But I still find safety in these stocks as long as it continues to have 5-6 years order book at any point of time , given the geo political situations and the fact that we are sandwiched between two nations where our relations remain tense and defence budget would remain robust - no opposition can complain- Defence of our nation is the top most priority.
There are several Navy projects under considerations to counter China which has 3 times more Naval powers in Indian Ocean. These projects would convert in to order book. so , these stocks have earning visibility for the long term …though in short term market volatility could continue due to sector rotation and other economic and geo political situations…
These stocks may not give QoQ performance and performance QoQ/ YOY could be lumpy.
However , portfolio resizing in such kind of run up is a standard recommended practice.
Discl : Not a buy sell recommendation. i may be wrong in my assessment. please do your own assessment before buy sell.
Surat P15B destroyer, and Nilgiri P17A Frigate to be commissioned before December 2024. The project under Surat P15B destroyer, worth Rs 35,000 crore was started way back in 2011 and this is the Fifth and the last one in series. After Project 15B, the Indian Navy’s next project is the Project 18 class of stealth guided missile destroyers. The Project 18 class will include 8–10 destroyers and will have 144-cell VLS missile launchers.
The Project 15B destroyers are considered to be some of the most technologically advanced guided missile destroyers in the world. They are equipped with state-of-the-art weapons and sensors, advanced stealth features, and a high level of automation.
The other destroyers made so far under project 15 B are :
INS Visakhapatnam: The first ship in the Project 15B destroyers, commissioned in 2021
INS Mormugao: The second ship in the Project 15B destroyers, commissioned in 2022
INS Imphal: The third ship in the Project 15B destroyers, delivered to the Indian Navy in 2023
INS Surat: Surat D69 -The fourth in the Project 15B destroyers, INS Surat was launched on May 17, 2022, and is currently in sea trials.
Discl: In spite of heightened volatility, I remain invested in all defence shipping stocks from lower level, sitting with multibagger returns even after my portfolio resizing. I may be biased. This is not a buy sell recommendation. Please do your own assessment before buy sell.
This applies to all naval consortium building nations naval-fleet.
The below image shows (blue dots) of how oil-tankers flow during regular operation. These channels gain vital importance during times of heightened tensions. It is then the Navy of countries try to control the zone. At such times, naval vessels cannot be instantly built. Hence there will be a long runway towards building & procuring such equipment by any Government.
The following YT video is a good documentary on how oil contract went negative (contango in a broad sense) - where from the screenprint was clipped. Oil prices going negative was a BlackSwan event itself, causing mayhem including softwares which did not show negative prices !!
