MY views on matrimony, as of today:
Some data points:
| FY |
Average Transaction Value - ATV (INR) |
Paid Subscriber (in Lakh) |
Matchmaking Billing (INR CR) |
| FY17 |
4065 |
7.02 |
285 |
| FY18 |
4361 |
7.45 |
327 |
| FY19 |
4682 |
7.3 |
342 |
| FY20 |
5061 |
7 |
356 |
| FY21 |
4578 |
8.4 |
383 |
| FY22 |
4806 |
8.9 |
430 |
| FY23 |
4493 |
9.9 |
447 |
Above suggests that paid subscribers are rising on continuous basis, though growth rate is muted. ATV’s are not able to keep pace, signifying that pricing power is not intact, probably because of competitive strength, or may be some other reason.
Overall, matchmaking revenues are increasing due to increasing subscribers, but partially offset by declining ATV.
While reading Matrimony concalls starting 2017, I realized a painful truth. The story line in 2017 was exactly the same as today (2024), that is :
- We have leadership in matchmaking business
- Growth in business will come
- Target addressable market is huge
- High Operating leverage in business, meaning dispropnate increase in profitabilty with slight increase in revenue.
- Marriage Services business, a joker in the pack, will grow and get profitable.
However, 7 years have passed none of it has materialized. In fact, things that have detoriated include:
- Competitive intensity has multipled, causing high marketing expenses, eating away most of the revenue growth
- Customers never traded up from basic 3 month / 6 month pack
- Growth has been extremely tepid.
- Valuation derated to half from the IPO price.
Its difficult to be a long term investor and bear this pain. Those who believe in the story have to have patience and go through difficult time. It looks to ME that last bull in matrimony has left the market.
However, past may not be the mirror of future. Things may turn up well in the future, as the underlying story STILL remains the same with reasonable valuation.
Disclosure - Invested and hence biased/ blind. Not a SEBI registered analyst.
5 Likes
My view on Matrimony is that jeevansathi is loosing steam. They have tried multiple models (freemium etc), burnt a lot on marketing for several years but have not gained market share.
Investors are asking tough questions to infoedge (during conf calls) and they can not continue to burn endless money on jeevansathi. The management is also showing signs that they have to stop at some stage.
Matrimony has stood against relentless competition. That shows strong moat. Once the competitive pressure reduces matrimony will get re-rated as their margins will improve substantially.
Further, they are cautiously playing out new bets on mandap, luv.com and investing wisely. We have to see how these bets will turn out going forward.
Disclosure - Invested and hence biased. Not a SEBI registered analyst.
4 Likes
I completely agree .
It’s just a matter of survival . I don’t think info edge will be able to pull through with jeevansathi and shaadi.com also doesn’t look too good
It’s just a matter time .
1 Like
If the profit pool is large enough no one is going to hand it over on platter - it has to be fought for - that is the reality for competitors.
Chk 13:00-14:30 of
If one believes Matrimony to be the El último hombre of the category one should look at it.
Sometimes due to widespread neglect & under ownership & absence of sellers - the stock may just take off due to a small trigger -
For the time being mr.market not interested in matching services globally incl. $BUMBL & $MTCH
2 Likes
Q4 2024 and 2024 annual results were announced a couple of days back.
Core matrimony business topline is growing at ~8% CAGR in the last 3 years. The growth comes primarily from higher # of paid users, which have also increased by 8% CAGR. There does not seem to be a big shift in market share between the 3 players or a pricing change or offline→ online movement.
On the other hand, EBITDA has not kept pace with revenue increase because increased intensity on marketing expenses (increased from 22% to ~40%)
An interesting point to note is that out of the INR 50 Cr PAT in FY 2024; INR 26 CR is from interest income from their INR ~340 CR cash pile.
Potential triggers:
- Irrational competition reduces and marketing spending comes back to 20-30% range
- Able to re-invent and open new markets with Jodi or Luv (2+ years)
- Find a new revenue stream through ads/other partnerships
- Breakout with wedding services marketplace (looks unlikely as they have already invested 5 years)
I am going to stay invested. I believe consolidation will happen in this business and margins will improve. Plus they have a good shot at making other segments big.
Disclosure - Invested and hence biased
3 Likes
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/the-tech-mahadasha-stars-align-for-indias-online-astrology-market/articleshow/110201159.cms
Wonder if they intend to invest in Online Astrology as well which has an expected growth rate of 45%, can probably prove more profitable for them than online wedding services.
Disclosure: Not holding but interested
3 Likes
actually they should just copy paste Astrotalk biz model & integrate it in their services. i think it will give them most bang for their buck than their other ventures such as mandap.com or luv.com
1 Like
Any news, the stocks seems to moving again
1 Like
Can’t seem to figure why the sudden 15-20% upmove in the last week or so . Volumes have been good also . Seems someone is accumulating the stock .
