Agree completely that without charging infra and cost coming down EVs don’t stand much chance. However this statement is true for cars and not as much for 2 wheelers , 3 wheelers and buses.
Govt is focusing on 2 wheelers and public transport first. As of now 2 wheelers have range of >100 km and this is sufficient for majority if one charge only at home . This range is bound to increase I. Years to come . govt is talking care of cost part by subsidy and this subsidy is only going to increase in form of tax on petrol ones. Reducing Battery price will mean that after 2025 2W EVs will become mainstream without subsidy. (There are studies which point towards this) . Public transport bus, auto will also be promoted on EV and charging infra will be created by 2025 because of demand for 2 wheeler charging as well. Subsidy on Bus and auto will Not be needed because demand will be there on non subsidised prices as operational cost are low.
I am assuming here that battery prices will continue path to lower prices and reduce by >30% in next 4 years also govt focus will continue on EVs because of pollution and economic benefit they bring.
EV In 4 wheelers will see meaningful start after this time which may not happen before 2025 . Studies suggest that before transition happens , sales of gas EVs will start going down as people will wait to buy EV instead of buying gas vehicle
Maruti will defiantly have a good start in EVs , but things might change . We all love Maruti for engines and fuel economy . These things won’t be the differentiating factor anymore for them. For ex , Tata are not a main player as of now as Tata petrol engine is not top of the time … however Tata might stand good chance if EVs become mainstream because of their expertise from JLR and also because Tata technologies and already helping Chinese EV car makers to build EVs. Tata chemicals is setting up LI battery plants so they have all they need to become major players in EVs. So there might be lot of changes which are difficult to predict now .
We need to be cautious with so many uncertainties in future , that’s what my view is for now. Let the story take shape and then create a longer term view.