Mann's Portfolio

Hello everyone,
I’m Mann, A CA Final Student who is currently working in Valuation Domain in a MNC
I’ve been actively Investing since completion of 10th Standard (5 Years now)
I’ve recently Joined Valuepickr
and I’ll Be sharing Here My Portfolio and thesis and Risks behind the same
All the Views are welcomed

I think Concentrated Portfolio is a way to go to enhance the return while you have high Risk taking capacity, Since I’m Quite Young (20YO). I think i have Quite a good amount of time and risk taking capacity.

Below is my Portfolio

Name of the Company Exposure
Creative Newtech Ltd 27.61%
Brand Concepts Ltd 14.75%
Cantabil Retail 19.96%
SKP Bearings 37.69%

Thesis Behind all of the above

Creative NewtechBrand Licensing Business nearest to contract Manufacturing opportunity in EMS Space

Creative Newtech holds Honeywell License to design, manufacture and sell the products of Honeywell, Where Honeywell Charges certain amount of Royalty Which is Minimum Guaranteed Royalty or Percentage of Sales Which Every is higher

Gross margin in Honeywell Business is very High (north of 40% gross and 15-20% EBITDA margins) current share of Honeywell products in total sales is near to 10% of overall Revenue

Management intends to Increase the share to 20-25% of revenue in Next 2 Years

Other Business contains of enterprise Business which is low Margin Business (almost Paper thin) but is Working capital less business, it involves back-to-back trading of electronic components

Ckart is their B2B Marketplace which isn’t yet commercialized but has helped them to make almost 400 crores of Revenue for Creative

They Inted to commercialize the same in medium term where Ckart will make transaction fees as income, Since the Matrix is Quite different for success of market place model, they would have to Fund the business Model, which can be in 2 Ways

  • They Fund the same out of Creative newtech’s Bottom line up to 10% of Bottom Line
  • Bring in the The Investor who has knowledge about market place business model and help them shape the Company

The Company has good hold under FMEG and FMCT Goods But the same is to be phased out since they don’t contribute very much to the business’s Revenue

SKP Bearings –

SKP Bearings Ltd is a microcap company involved in manufacturing of Steel balls, Needle Rollers, Cyclical rollers and pin

The company’s Business dates back to 1991 which was established as a partnership firm, which eventually in January 07, 2022 got converted into limited company.

The promoter Mr. S.K. Palshikar is Engineer with a Masters from IIT Bombay. Prior to SKP he has also completed Rolling Bearing Theory from SKF College

Criticality of Bearings

Consider a car where a bearing of the wheel suddenly goes Belly up during the Ride, this can cause the accident and in order to prevent it Quality checks for OEMS are very Stringent so that they can assure that the Customer is safe and Secure And due to the above reason

the Bearings Are generally Purchased from the Reputed Companies with Proper Quality Control Audit and This Bearings manufactures integrates their value chain After considering very Strict Quality control Measure of another firm

The company Has 2 Segments –

Roller and Balls

Roller –

s High Margin Segment Which Gives Round to 40% EBITDA margin

The current Capacity is 1320 Tonnes P.a. at 92% Capacity Utilization Post Capex the Capacity will be 2400 Tones P.a.

The Rollers are very Much Customized as per the need of the OEM and Therefore the Margins in Rollers are Quite High

The share of Revenue of this Roller in FY 23 was 77% This is the reason of more than 35% EBITDA Margin of the company seems the rollers Accounts for more than 40% EBITDA


Balls Segment Commands Less EBITDA margin in comparison to that of Rollers but the margin overall is more lucrative at 20%

The total capacity utilization of the Balls Segment is around 45% out of the total 480 Tonnes P.a. Capacity

The share in the revenue of the Balls segment is around 9.5% of the total Revenue

The capex is more toward the boosting the capacity of the balls segment i.e., post capex the capacity will increase from current 480 tonnes P.a. to 2500 Tonnes p.a.

Massive Capex

The capex spend is toward the machinery which will become functional in the Q3 Of current Financial Year i.e., FY 23-24

The company is going through the massive capacity expansion The current Net block is of 22 Crores and expected capex during the next 1.5 Years is 25 Crores

The company expects this capex to yield anywhere between 150 to 200 Crores of revenue from current 50 Crores of Revenue

Thing to be kept in mind while evaluating the current Capacity expansion is that There are no pre orders to cater for which the company is undergoing such huge capacity expansion The nature of industry is such that there are no Pre orders

There is different landscape in the industry i.e., SKP After completion of the Expansion will Introduce the product portfolio to OEM and then they will give order to SKP Bearings

SKP Bearings had to Let go the Some of the orders since the Capacity utilization was at peak

In Advance talk with Hyundai to land them as their customers


Rollers play important part in bearings and Bearings play important part in any machinery as the failure of it can cause the life damage and therefore no OEM in right mind would change the Suppliers, unless there is very huge Issue with the supplier
almost 100% of their revenue is from repeat Customer
Once the Relationship is formed it lasts for years and even for decades
To onboard a single client they require 2 years of time

Completed Audit of Maruti giving SKP a stand of Green Supplier, earlier it was Yellow Supplier, Now SKP can integrate with as many Suppliers of Maruti They can on board (earlier it was not Allowed)

Think of this audit as a Traffic Sign, green Light mean Go ahead


Customer Includes Major OEM like Maruti and Hyundai and Also Bearings manufacturer like Schaffler, Timken, SKF, Etc. Risk Prevails regarding the backward integration,

But the company doesn’t undertake every task of value chain under one roof or else it becomes Jack of all and master of none

SKF has already closed its Rollers Plant 5 Years Back so one can get the idea as to why Backward integration is unlikely

Brand Concepts-

Brand Concepts Sells handbags, Backpacks and Luggage Goods

The company is Licensee of Tommy Hilfiger (expires in 2023 December end, Likely to be renewed)

The Revenue from the same is around 80%

The company has the ambition to get to 500 crores of yearly revenue in Next 3 Years (FY 23 Revenue near to 160 Crores)

Brand concept helps Tommy Hilfiger to deign the bags, Sends those design to the Tommy and when the approve the same will be manufactured by Brand concepts marketed by them and sold by them

Tommy receives the Royalty in exchange of the sales made under TH name

The TAM is 24000 – 48000 Crores, which is majorly Unorganised and Organised player like VIP, Safari and This small Company is snatching the market share away from this Unorganised players (Look at performance of Safari and VIP in last 10 Years)

The company has signed 2 New Players Aeropostale and United Colour of Benetton

Aeropostale is Heavy Brand Were as UCB is light brand

They Intend to Undertake another Heavy Brand as they states that dependence on One player (TH) is big risk for them

The company is undergoing the Reverse merger with their parent company which is contract manufacturer of Luggage and Heavy Goods

The implied value of Parent company is around 50 Crores+ which is 3x Price to sales of FY 23

May be less if the Revenue has increased in this FY

The Parent company is profitable and is having double digit EBITDA margins

Cantabil Retail Ltd

Operating EBOs of Clothes in lower premium segments (ASP Of 1200 per piece)

Operates 500 stores (Weighted average last year =420)

Accounting upto 1.4 Cr of average Realisation at 530 cr Revenue

Gross margin @55% highest in industry

Working capital cycle: Lowest with fast cash conversion, Reason being backward Integration in almost each part of Value chain,

Increasing the Backward Integration by establishing one more Factory in C.F.Y,

SSG(same stores Growth) can be 5-7% p.a.

Meaning with 3 years down the line it (Realization) can be around 1.7 cr per store

New Stores guidence:- 700 stores by fy26

With 100bps improvement in EBITDA

Meaning 1.7cr70030% accounts for 357 cr FY26E EBITDA

EBITDA to free cash conversion 50% meaning at 180 cr cash p.a in 3 years

Guidence to double the same in next 3 years

Meaning almost 400 cr of FCF in next 6 years

New Stores requires 25 Lakhs. capex (Per store) opening 60-70 for 2 year each gives Capex of almost 25cr

Debt free company

Robest ROCE at 47% p.a

Anti thesis

Company’s promoters might have been involved in Some corporate governance issues, no articles though that I found

But the mention was there regarding the quality of promoters on Valuepickr forum

Cyclical company :- Season sale 65%; fresh stock sale 35%

Season sale runs for 3months while as fresh stock sale for 9 months

See the parity

Visited the store myself although the ASP in book is at 1200 per unit piece sold couldn’t find any shirt for less than 2500₹


the valuation seems attractive

Authum fund purchased 4% approx stake at 777₹ approx


Company aims to double the revenue in next 3 years I.e. 1000cr

Pat margin to remain stable + - 50 bps

Say 12%p.a.

120 cr of profit

And 80% of FCF gives 96-100 cr of FCF valued cheaply at 17xFY26E FCF

And 14x FY26E EPS

Disclaimer - holding all of the above
Views are welcomed


First thing, Congratulations that at such a young age you have gotten into equities.
Few observations :

  • Very concentrated portfolio and almost everything is a small cap.

  • I had studied briefly and was interested in SKP bearing. I want to know why the margins are abnormally high? No idea about other stocks.


Hey Thanks for Your Inputs

So the above portfolio is my personal Portfolio, It excludes Family Portfolio
And for me I have seen Certain Small caps Like Fineotex Chemicals, Pricol, Carysil, Garware Hi tech In my Family portfolio been 5x to 10x That has formed biasness in my Mind that Micro Caps with good business Model and Good Management Can shape our portfolio in long run to provide 25%+ IRR

Concentration of good business is what I have learnt From @sahil_vi , Sizing the bet Appropriately is one of the thing i have missed in the past due to which even though the Above mentioned 3 Stocks became 5x to 10x it didn’t Move the whole portfolio Quite a lot
So I decided to Size the bet Appropriately, but i take initiative to make sure the Position is as per my thesis
I have even Met the CFO of 1 of the above company Just to ensure weather the understanding of business and its tailwind prediction of mine was correct or not

For SKP Bearings Question

below is the picture of How the valuee chain of Bearings work


Pic Courtesy - Caprize Investment Twitter account

Now after understanding above lets compare the margins of Bearings manufacturer

Schaeffler -


Timken -

NRB Bearings -

Even though NRB Is close Competitor, It also manufactures the bearing as whole
Kind of Fully forward Integrated and hence the margins gets quite compressed in the range of Bearings manufacturer
i.e. In the Range of 17-18%

So to sum up the above
SKP doesn’t Manufacture the whole bearings but the component of bearings and hence the margins are quite high there
It’s Kind of the Proxy Play on Bearings Industry,
The Company that Manufactures the bearing Doesn’t have the operations under one roof
It might happen that what you are looking at and comparing is the margin of Bearing manufacturer (Last in value chain), With that of the Components manufacturer


What if tommy license not renew…

Hello Sir,
Tommy Hilfiger has had 2 brand licensee in India
Titan For watches
Arvind Fashion for Clothes
And now Brand concepts for bags

They Haven’t Changed any of their Brand licensing agreement
but lets see

The steps to onboard the licensing brand is very stringent
you have to make sure that you manufacturing process is complied with the Social and Product Quality Standards
The audit is carried out at regular interval and product Quality check is being undertaken by them at regular interval

So if you don’t mess up in the following fronts

  1. Payment of royalty
  2. Products Quality during their check
  3. The Factory failing to comply with the Standard they set

they don’t cancel or refuse the renewal of license
they designs of Handbags for Spring season (Next March) is also already approved by tommy
The anti thesis prevails as mentioned by you
I’m looking forward to the renewal status by Abhinav Kumar Sir on 16th
Lets hope for the best


Hi Mann,

Congratulations on starting the investing journey so early in life. I believe this is one of the best decision you have made till date.

Now I have some comments on SKP. The company is going for huge capex, which is more towards expanding the balls segment. After the capex completion, the capacity will be increased from present 480 tonnes/Yr to 2500 Tonnes/Yr. which is more than 5X capacity expansion. Now the total capacity utilization for the Balls Segment is only ~45% at present.

Now for the Roller segment, the current Capacity Utilization at 92% and after Capex, it will be 2400 Tones/Yr, from current capacity of 1300/Yr which is ~2X
Revenue share from the Roller segment is also much more than the Balls segment and so is the Profitability with highest margin.

I dont understand why the management decided to expand the Balls segment much more than the Roller segment. It should have been the other way around if they had to go for this huge expansion now, considering the current revenue and capacity utilization rate for both the segments. especially when there is no future orders confirmation.

Do you have any information in this regards? Or if you asked this question to the management?

Thank you.

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In My limited Understanding
Needle Rollers are typically very customized as per the different application, which causes SKP to spend very high amount of time just to onboard the different clients.
Ball Bearings though can be customized the customization is very limited (hardly 4-5 Types as per management)
Ball bearings is very Volume related game
And Just so you know that the margins at 45% utilization is near to 20%, Better cost utilization imo can take the same to 25%, as better absorption of fixed cost will happen

and also the Needle rollers are used at large in ICE Vehicles’ engine, where as Ball rollers are used at large in EV since the main characteristic of Ball rollers is that it Suppresses the Noise caused due to working of the machinery which is the main reason why Balls are used in it since EV are silent

Of-course the Blended margin will come down the same is acknowledged by management too in recent Call

And For capacity Utilization the ball Volume for H1 is up 80% odd the same isn’t Updated here, the revenue is flattish in light of ongoing downside in Textile sector and hence the new capex is stopped, halting the revenue from Other Sectors


What is top line growth guidance in next 2-3 years for creative newtech ltd by promoter.

Top line may be in the range of 2100 - 2200 crores
No guidence but thats my estimate
Bet is on margin improvement
Which can also been seen playing out
See september Quarter result
The EBITDA has jumped from 1 to 3%
On sustainable basis can go to 5.5 - 6%
The PAT margin can be 4 -4.5 %
Meaning almost 80 to 100 crores of PAT
For a 650 crore enterprise (my entry) right now 1000 crore enterprise

Please understand this is my estimation
I can be extremly wrong
Im holding and biased
Not a recommendation to buy or sale


Q2 तक 1700 करोड़(TTM Revenue)तो हो ही गयी है.

Sir i refrain from making any further assumptions,
Im sticking for process.
So if there’s anything about business, I’ll be glad to discuss
But predicting so many numbers is just shooting no.s in dark.
Its more of gamble to discuss 50 number


I recently came around the SKP and there is one more company which i liked is GALAXY BEARINGS LTD. Any views on this company.

Hey Sandeep.
Actually i havent updated my new position here
I sold out Brand concepts recently except for few 100 share in family account
I know Ashish Sir has entered and i know it is a big story itll be probably a 5x from here too but im not comfortable holding it now at 65 pe (Pe at which i sold)
Instead i was feeling much more confident in Creative newtech which in my calculations is at 10x 2Y forward PE with the business model same as that of Brand concepts with the differenct that they are into electronics meaning even better margin and possibly better valuations since Electronics is more niche than fashion and Galaxy Bearings which is undergoing humangous capex almost 3x of Og net block in CWIP And another 23 crores in Mutual fund that will be deployed for capex
As a part of scuttle but i recently met their logistic partner in Rajkot who’s office resides just kutside Galaxy’s office
In his words - Their Foot print in export is very strong, they dont even catter to domestic demands on enquiry they Catter to only Exports at large
Majority of his assignments from Galaxy are also directed towards Mundra port as a Supply chain for export orders
The normal Asset turnover is 8x-10x on the Net block see SKF, Timken, Scahffler
Post total completion of Capex the total capacity should be more than 65 crores (After depreciation)
Meaning more than 500 crores of sales taking view of 4-5 years (From current 130 crores)
And EBITDA After 4-5 years will be todays sales pr even more that that
I have made more strong position in Creative and have started with relatively small amount in Galaxy
Will put more of it into galaxy each month THROUGH SIP
Galaxy’s CAPEX should go live by start of next year
Where as for SKP It should go live by 2025- or 2026 middle

Disclaimer- all of the above business mentioned are part of my portfolio not a buy or sell advice
Views are welcomed


@Ashar_Mann thankyou for sharing your knowledge. And i finished my analysis on galaxy bearing and in next 3 yrs im seeing the double market cap from today. What your view

I dont know about doubling
But we can guess earnings imo
The capacity 50% should commence by this FY
And another 23 crores will be deployed by end of next FY
This will take 2.5 years for complete Utilisation
Almost 6 years but in that 6 years the capacity will almost be 6x
And bottom line may be in the similar line


Update - Have sold my Brand concepts position except for few shares in Family Account
Mr. AK Sir has entered it i know but the valuations are stretched now the company trades at 30x 3Year Forward earnings
I wasnt comfortable holding it
I was Quite Satisfied with my 2.5x Return

I have deployed my proceeds in Creative newtech and a little in Galaxy Bearings
The company is revampibg almost 4-5x its capacity coming live probably by end of this FY
And Starting SIP In Galaxy and Yasho Ind (For Yasho) please refer my Valuepickr thread have posted my investment thesis and Business analysis there
Please do let me know your views


Regarding Brand Concept, I have been thinking about getting out as well and rebalancing the rest of the portfolio. However, I decided to hold onto it for the time being. My reasons are:

  • It seems like they will do 500 Cr topline in three years.
  • For a growing company, I am just valuing it on P/Sales as the Earnings will be slightly depressed due to the expansion
  • A 3x P/Sales gives it a 1500 Cr Mcap (~18% Cagr) - Bull Case
  • A 2.5x P/Sales gives it a 1250 Cr Mcap (~11% Cagr) - Base Case
  • It is currently at about 4x P/Sales. 3-5x has been a range for VIP and Safari

Personally, I will monitor QoQ to see how the business is performing. Trying to reduce churn at my end.

You seems to forget the Dilution on account of merger
Take that and you are already at 1,000 crore Mcap
And the reason i sold isnt because i no longer believe in this Megatrend (In words of Mr. Utpal Seth sir) i.e., Brand Licensing
But its just that Now Brand Concepts is very Discovered Story i attended th concall when the participatoon used to be 10-15 shareholders
Now the count went upto 150 this Quarter and hence becoming more expensive i cant sustain my Margin of Safety beyond this
Onother hand theres creative with same Brand licensing husiness with traditional Cash cow business Funding Brand licensing infra as well as developing B2B platform
At 1000 crore Mcap
electronics are high gross margin than Fashion Segments 40% vs 15%
And the best thing is that Honeywell revenues are groqong at a staggering phase
They can easily make 65 to 70 crores of Bottom line 2 tears down the line 50-55 may be 1 year down the line and 40 this year
If im playing complete long term im getting at good 30-32x pe (A high margin business with strong ROCE, MR. Market aftwr seeong execution may give evn higher but this is base case) im getting 40+% IRR
This is my thesis
This isnt buy sale advice,
I hold a huge position here and continue to add every bit from my salary
Views are welcomed


Hello VP Members,
Below stands my PF Position as on 1st Day of 2024

Stocks % Allocation
Creative Newtech 25.90%
DP Wires 13.33%
Galaxy Bearings 11.90%
Crown Lifters 14.38%
Yasho Industries 14.94%
SKP Bearings 19.54%

There are 2 Stocks that i sold.
Cantabil Retail - I Don’t see the earnings compounding at 25% IRR which is my hurdle rate. May be 15-20% max. I don’t see the same happening here. though there is a lot of buzz around the same in concalls. i see Ashish Sir’s Team buzzing around the company a lot in calls

Brand Concepts - Thesis for selling written above

Entry in 3 Stocks -
galaxy bearings - In scenario of tough environment in Europe the company was able to maintain the position in terms of sales → their 72% sales is in terms of exports
Hence the Interest rates cuts may be playing out in near terms, also the Neq capex will be coming live by start of next Financial Year. - Net block will be 3x of the og. Net block and has around 23 crores of Book value mutual funds that too will be used in the Deployment of the capex. i see a good Value in terms of 2-3 Year time frame The earnings could easily multiply 2x at this rate if there’s good execution.

Yasho Industries - See the thread of mine in valuepickr

Crown Lifters - Net block has been 3x as on September 2023. as per some of my Connections the company is able to utilize the same at full capacity. The Yield on new cranes is 4% p.m. where the same for sanghvi is for 2.5% p.m.
there will be non-linear growth in the earnings in my opinion. this bet is for short term may be a year or max 2. The main goal is to play non linear curve of the earnings that’s it

I have not sold any single share in Creative, DP nor SKP infact I have added Creative and 1 Lot of SKP the Dilution in % Is in account of Fresh Money Infusion from Family PF.
Looking Forward to 2024 With Bright Future for Bharat
Happy New years
Views are welcomed
disclaimer - I have position in all of the above. I’m not SEBI Registered advisors and hence above views are Not a buy or sale recommendation


A lot of appreciation for your approach, can you please update your analysis on DP wire also.

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