Manish Dwivedi's long term portfolio

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Dear ValuePickrs,
I am a new bee in the market and I have been a silent learner in this forum for over a year. Thanks much for the in depth threads and quality of the discussions.

I have been mostly a mutual fund guy for past 5 years, however, started dirtying my hands directly in the market after picking up a thing or two from last one year. Most of the stocks in my portfolio are from the Valuepickr discussions. Below is my long term portfolio.

I am looking to reduce the number of stocks in my portfolio. Reviews, comments and suggestions welcome.

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The quality of most of the companies in your portfolio is quite good. Coming to allocation you can re design (if u feel the need) the allocations according to your conviction levels. I think u can remove the companies with less than 5% allocation and add more to high conviction bets.

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I feel that the portfolio is very diversified and it will be difficult to achieve a superlative return.I think you can restructure it to form a core pf of 8 10 high conviction bets. Personally I am very bullish on VRL and wonderla .

Disclosure : invested in both the companies .

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It would be good if you can disclose time of investment and % gain/loss.

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I suggest you following steps:-

  1. To study all the stocks in your portfolio.
  2. Build your conviction on a paper with pros and cons.
  3. Discuss with others (to cover things u missed)
  4. Rank your convictions (stronger ones to be rated higher)
  5. Re-design your portfolios (limit it to max.8 - 10) with your higher conviction bets.
  6. Importantly, Don’t let your conviction shatter by day to day news or price movements (unless its structural)
  7. SIT TIGHT.
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Your portfolio looks well diversified with excellent picks.

I think you should continue to sit tight with the same for the next couple of years (unless the fundamentals of any of your fav. company do not show a dramatic change).

Regards.

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Dear all , I collected some data on L&T Please have a look .
L&T was founded in year 1938 by Danish engineers Mr Larsen and Mr Toubro. Now state owned LIC and UTI are majority stakeholders. Likes of Chairman Mr Naik (aged 73) who joined as entry level engineers in 60s are treating L&T as their personal fiefdom. Caution – Big Danger
Ahead!! L&T in melting - devil or the deep blue sea - stake sale or post
losses.

Complete stake sale at Dhamra Port (Rs 2500 crores) to Adani group
saved LnT from posting losses in q1-2014. LnT Inra stake sale to Canadian FII (2000 crores) saved LnT from posting losses in q2-2014. LnT Finance not made any money for shareholders in 6-7 yrs, 10% stake sold to Bains, 1300 crores. Kuttapali Port deal final with Adani. On a look out to sell Rajpura Power plant – cost 9600 crores. Plans to sell 15% stake at LnT Infotech to raise 2k crores. Threatened to pull out from Hyderabad Metro 16 k crores, LnT opts out of GAIL tender to build LNG carrier, scraps Kachchigarh Gujarat port project. L&T’s commercial real estate project in Chandigarh sold to Carnival Group – Rs 1785
crores. LnT Halol Shamlaji Tollway defaults on Rs 1014 crore loan. LnT Chennai Tada Tollway defaults on Rs 475 crore loan. Inherent malignancies – Hydrocarbon and Ship Building losses of Rs 900 cr each, Hyderabad Metro cost overruns Rs 4k crores, Rs 5k crores stagnating investment in Defence. Financial mismanagement charges see a dozen leaving L&T Hydrocarbon arm. Aging CXO-MD population of
septuagenarians, leading the pack 73 yrs old Chairman Mr Naik completed 50 yrs with LnT as Paid Employee. LnT stock touched 18 month low of 1412, from all-time and 3 months peak of 1879. Total consolidated debt 2014-15, 90.7 thousand crores. Lost whopping 20 percent in last 3 months (ending Sep 2015). Post Q2 results 3 yr low of 722 ? L&T like Satyam was barred by World Bank over FORGERY !

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i always wonder how company like L&T is in so many portfolios . it has very bad corporate governance .

  • how in professionally managed company sale of cement division leads to increase in share holding of employee trust .(still cant digest it after 12-13 years very few have raised questions)

  • poor cash flow and too much debt

  • very little communication about stalled projects like Hyderabad metro

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Hi @kjshah18 @whirlingwoods ,

Thanks much for opening my eyes on LnT. I have been likening LnT to Indian economy, to Indian infrastructure, and I never thought LnT could have CG issues. I thought it is a buy and forget type of stock, however, I will reevaluate my allocation now.

@mailkrishna87 Thanks for your review. My conviction in VRL and Wonderla is very high. I use VRL pretty often for overnight travel and seriously impressed by their quality of services. Their numbers also tell a better story. Same has been my experience with Wonderla. Impeccable quality and clean and growing numbers.

@hitesh2710 Hitesh sir, thanks much for your look. I am using this crash as an opportunity to re-balance the portfolio.

@brijeshmahawar Brijesh, I am balancing my portfolio. Will post it again with the entry levels. Most of my portfolio is less than 1 year old, thus haven’t made much on paper gains.

Disc: Reduced LnT (and booked losses) and increased in MPS, HDFC, VRL, CARE and WonderLa

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Update on the portfolio-

As the market has moved into the danger zone, I have trimmed my allocations and kept only the large caps in my portfolio.

The XIRR is higher for some of the scrips since they are < 1 year in my portfolio.

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