Manappuram Finance

Vp nandkumar

Expecting 12-15% annual growth in gold loan
Microfinance pain will improve in next 2-3 quarters

  • guided10-12% growth in MFI with collection efficiency 99%

Manappuram has tightened its underwriting process for the microfinance business, limiting loans to customers with a good track record.

The microfinance sector faced stress due to customer over-leveraging and broader microfinance challenges.

Nandakumar met with the Governor and expects branch approval to come sooner without delays.

The pricing difference between Manappuram and Muthoot will gradually narrow.

A corporate borrower default led to higher borrowing costs, but it was a quarterly phenomenon and should normalize later.

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Jefferies maintained a ‘hold’ rating on Manappuram Finance, with a target price of Rs 205.
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CLSA has an ‘outperform’ rating on Manappuram Finance, with a target price of Rs 225
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IDBI maintain ‘Hold’ rating with a target price of Rs 200 (earlier Rs 176), valuing it at 1.0x P/BV FY27E.
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Axis securities 220

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Motilal Oswal has reiterated a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 215 per share

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https://www.business-standard.com/markets/news/manappuram-fin-slips-5-on-posting-mixed-q3-nos-pat-down-52-rev-up-14-125021400497_1.html

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This is short problem even when gold loan industry was doing good,mannapuram lagged while muthood outperformed,its more of management issue then structural change

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What they know well and can do well is probably gold loan. However there is no growth. In the last 5.5 years the CAGR in gold assets under management (excluding Asirvad’s gold loan) would be around 6.2%. The customer base has declined but the average ticket size has gone up from Rs 38500 to Rs 64200 during this period matching the increase in gold prices. The 5.9% RoA has come down to 4.6% RoA during this time.

I do not trust them on anything else. The MFI has about 11.7% of assets in stage 2 and stage 3. The vehicle finance has 5.2 % GNPA, housing finance has 3.9% GNPA! MSME & Personal finance has 4.1% GNPA. The other businesses go through the cycles and there is nothing to point out that they can handle those segments well except moving up and down with the business cycles. Probably some body can buy and execute them well.

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Exactly they are messing up

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Manappuram Finance is growing at an average rate of 15% in profits and sales, whether due to gold prices, customer acquisition, or operational efficiency. There will be fluctuations in the gold business, but considering the long-term trend, Manappuram Finance is consistently growing at around 15%. The business is transitioning from the unorganized to the organized sector, and gold prices are rising. In the medium to long term, Manappuram Finance will continue growing at an average rate of 15%. It is strengthening both its microfinance and gold businesses. The NP in gold finance is negligible, while the NP in microfinance, which is currently struggling


, is expected to strengthen as per management, as they are tightening their lending practices.

  • sector shifting from unorganized to organized
    -there is always demand for quick financing.
    -India also holds a large amount of gold in ornaments.

For a company growing at 15% and available at a P/E ratio of 7 with a high dividend yield, there is a chance of re-rating.
book value is growing at the same 15% rate.
we are getting both 15% growth and a potential re-rating opportunity.
Possible upward triggers include a strategic acquisition, such as by Bain Capital, growth exceeding 15%, improving NPAs, and a stronger microfinance business.

Manappuram Finance is not performing at par with Muthoot Finance, which is why it is available at this valuation.
Muthoot, on the other hand, is trading at three times this valuation.
This is fundamentally a valuation play with a re-rating potential.
Although Muthoot is growing fast, its valuations are expensive. If Muthoots growth slows, there is a chance its stock price could decline.
It has a lower margin of safety, whereas Manappuram Finance offers a much higher margin of safety.

These are two different companies with distinct strengths ”Manappuram Finance is winning on the valuation front, while Muthoot currently has Better business growth.
However, things keep changing between these companies, and market perception shifts accordingly.

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What is the book value at the end of Q3 FY25 ?
They sure have a track record of growing their topline at 15% CAGR (one shouldn’t focus too much on the rearview mirror while driving). The street is valuing them based on their Gold book growth. Given the stress in Microfinance sector, its book is likely to be flat/contract near term. Hiving off Asirvad could unlock value.

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https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/app/index.php/insights/reports/downloadReport/file/Manappuram+Finance+Ltd+-+Q3FY25+Result+Update+-+14022025_14-02-2025_09.pdf/type/fundamental

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Yellow metal getting green light from everywhere

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/american-pe-major-bain-capital-s-deal-with-manappuram-enters-final-lap-125022300137_1.html

Good to see that deal is going to happen. It will bring positive to the whole business. holding & biased from 89 levels.

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This is something a blessing for long term retail investor in Manappuram.

Change of Management & Promoter is need of the hour to ensure Manappuram survives in Gold loan segment considering aspirations of players like Bajaj Finance, Aditya Birla Capital, IIFL etc.

The agreement that is being worked upon includes Bain Capital infusing fresh capital via a preferential allotment, as well as a secondary sale of shares by the promoters.

While the preferential allotment is expected to be at a premium of around 12.5-15% to current market price, the secondary share sale will be priced higher, at 22.5–25% over Friday’s closing price, the people said. The blended price is expected to be Rs 237-240 a share.

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Yes,was waiting for long time for professional management to come in

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Given the companys careful wording it seems likely that discussions may have taken place, but nothing is final yet. If the deal were completely false, they could have outright denied it instead of using a more general statement about exploring growth opportunities.

Their response probably implies that it has not reached a stage where disclosure is required.

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This is called reading between the lines. Good to hear your thought process sir. Sir what is your opinion regarding subsequent open offer for retail investors to give away or sell share at price of 240 rupees.

What is your thought process sir ?

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I feel before the deal it may cross 240

Possible near term upticks
A potential deal with Bain Capital
The upcoming IPO of Ashirwad Finance
Rising gold prices crossing three thousand
dollars
Competition becoming less intense
Approval from the Reserve Bank of India for new branches
Recovery in the microfinance sector
Management focusing on lending to customers with good credit history and prioritizing non-performing asset management over aggressive growth

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Synopsis

Manappuram Finance aims to reduce its microfinance portfolio to below 15% of its consolidated AUM to mitigate risks associated with unsecured lending. The company will focus on secured lending such as mortgage-based MSME loans and vehicle finance while maintaining controlled growth in the microfinance sector.

Manappuram Finance has decided to bring down the share of the microfinance portfolio to below 15% of its consolidated assets under management since it is looking to cut risks associated with unsecured lending.

The Kerala-based non-bank lender provides micro loans through its subsidiary Asirvad Micro Finance, in which it owns 98%.

The share of the microfinance book stood at 21% of the group’s consolidated AUM of Rs 44,217 crore at the end of December.

“We plan to contain the MFI book within around 10%-15% of our total AUM going forward,” Manappuram promoter and managing director VP Nandakumar told analysts in a post earnings call.

“What we plan to have is to contain the growth (in microfinance business) and gradually we plan to increase our secured lending business in the overall consolidated book for gold and other non-gold secured business,” he said.

The Manappuram management has given a guidance of 10-12% growth for Asirvad to ring fence it from the stress built in the microfinance sector.

Lending to the bottom of the pyramid segment has turned trickier with rising default risks as borrowers become overleveraged reducing their capacity to repay. The gross non-performing assets ratio of the total gross microfinance loans surged to about 13% at the end of November, credit bureau data showed.

Nandakumar said the group would prioritise growing other secured businesses like mortgage-based MSME loans and vehicle finance. The group already exited unsecured business like digital personal loan and unsecured MSME lending.

“We have completely moved to secured lending in the standalone entity,” the MD said.

Asirvad’s AUM stood at Rs 10,013 crore at the end of December, as compared with Rs 10,041 crore a year ago. Sequentially, the AUM shrank about 18% from Rs 12,149 crore following the regulatory restriction on business expansion imposed from October 21 last year. The Reserve Bank of India lifted the curb on January 8.

The AUM consists of Rs 9,133 crore of micro loans, Rs 818 crore of gold loans and Rs 62 crore of MSME loans.

Asirvad suffered a loss of Rs 189 crore in the December quarter, leading to a 52% year-on-year fall in the group’s consolidated net profit at Rs 278 crore.

“In Asirvad, we have tightened the underwriting process, we have capped the maximum number of lenders, we have reduced the loan size also,” Nandakumar said.

“We are giving loans only to our good customers now, who have a good track record all these years, through branches which are seen as safer. So this way, we expect the growth segment of Asirvad will come down to around 10%-12% annually,” he added.

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RBI ban was blessing in disguise
Else losses would have been more

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Great sir…This is called seeing positivity in negative. Seeing your post always reminds me of dialogue from old Hollywood movie Shawshank Redemption…“Hope is good thing, may be best of the many things and no good things ever die.”

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Interesting Read:
https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/223281/manappuram-finance-bain-capital-investment/

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Good news for Manappuram

With stricter norms wrong practices by certain banks Will be controlled
Manappuram and Muthoot are already following strict rules while banks are growing without strict regulations

This Will slow growth in bank gold loans and Will help manappuram muthoot

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Excerpts from article
“The Reserve Bank of India wants banks and non-banks to also bolster background checks”

“the entities are following a standard protocol and any growth in the gold loan sector is not out of bounds”

“In audits conducted over the last 12-to-16 months, the RBI found irregularities in the portfolios of non-bank lenders and weaknesses in monitoring the amount of funds that can be lent against gold”

“The regulator aims to treat all lenders uniformly to ensure no entity bypasses regulations, including for gold auctions and monitoring use of the loaned money through receipts”

I am new to gold loan or loan industry itself. How will this help to non-bank gold lenders ?

To me The gold loan business has balooned, manapurram too has seen growth. has RBI noticed something which we havent yet?

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