Macro Outlook for CY24

We’re heading towards a soft landing in the US, but if data is weaker than expected/subdued growth then:

  1. Earnings downgrades could trigger a sharp sell off across US equites.
  2. More interest into long duration bonds.
  3. Russell would continue its relative underperformance.
  4. FED cutting rates in 2nd half is very likely.
  5. DXY could have an upside in short term to say 104, but in the longer term should settle below 100.
    Possible risks to US growth?
  6. Geopolitical tensions.
  7. Shrinking work force: Ageing population.
  8. Transition into low carbon times.
  9. Inflation comes back.

Risks for EMs (Ex-India):

  1. Slowing consumption story in China & peaking working age population.
  2. Upside risks in Oil prices.
  3. Rates staying higher for longer.
  4. Stronger DXY because: i) Real yields are higher in US. ii) Stagflation fears in Europe: could weaken Euro.
  5. Multiple elections.

Please share/advise if suggestions/modifications.

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Too conservative to start the year…

IMHO, all of this is a futile exercise. We have already seen all the broad stock market predictions go wrong in the last year!

Also, Quoting Rohit Chauhan sir here,
“I was thinking of sharing my forecast for 2024 like everyone else
Then i realized, i have no clue like everyone else
We cannot forecast 2024, but we can confidently expect things to be better over 5-10 years
Why ? because everyday millions of people around the globe wake up to solve problems, start companies and take productive actions
So don’t bother about 2024, just keep plugging away and on ‘average’ it will work out
How’s that for a prediction?:grinning:


That’s the spirit, Practical optimism…

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