LUX INDUSTRIES - Can it Scale?

KPR MILL EMPLOYEE average salaries is 2.5L (they provide additional facilities too and education to employees too)
For page Industry it is around 2L

In both this company KP Rama Swami and brothers take 5.7 cr salaries
In Page they take
Sundar genomal 2.06 cr
Vs Ganesh 3.522 cr.

Don’t understand with lux promoter with very less and as highlights in above it is also managed profit they are taking very high salaries

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From FY22 AR:

“The result is that even as we were compelled to raise sticker prices to absorb the unprecedented increase in raw material costs, we were pleasantly surprised – not entirely unexpected – that this increase was accepted by consumers.”

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Compare with median salaries, not with average, extremes can cause huge skew.

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I have seen in many places unsecured loan has been given to a related party since from the bigning.
I have highlighted them since from 2016 Annual reports.
I cannot see whether they paid interest on this loan or not.
Same time.
Total Related Party Disclosure so many in this lux.

In 2021 29 Cr Worth Properties is purchased by promotors.
Do not understand the reason for this.

if someone can explain the reason for this type of loan ?

from 2016
from Annual reports screenshot is attached
![16 related Party transaction |690x442](upload://oI


g9BG2oZbmPxTsp8F3YU3qYOBM.jpeg)

2018

fast forward to 2021 22


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One More thing I have noticed is past 10 years’ profit is not matching with the operating cash flow from operations.

From many interviews and with the blogs I have read that it should not vary more than 20% but in the case of lux cumulative 10 Years PAT/CFOL is varying up to 47%.

The company is generating High ROCE. ROE and Profit but there is most of the time negative cash flow.

I do not have much accounting skill to go and catch the problem but company with insider trade case. Past records of many transaction with subsidiaries and with promoters. Have negative cash flow.

Cash flow is fact, profit is an opinion
topline is vanity and profit is sanity but cash is reality

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DIIs have increased their shares quite a lot 6.23 → 11.1 in the month of September.
Trying to understand the rationale behind the same.

@Debojit_Kangsa_Banik

Just re-bucketing of LIC’s stake from Public to DII.

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Is it the first time in many quarters that LUX didnt do a Concall ?

https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=fbf2584d-e0b4-46ee-b661-7a97ba206d5a

Another poor qtr coincidentally at the time of insider trading and sudden fall from grace were big shots came out at prices above 3000 and retail investors got stuck

Wait for another two to three quarters for a meaningful understanding now.

Disl have some holding actually stuck

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I am new to Lux Industries and have a very basic question. Their investor presentation itself says they do not have margin upwards of 13% then how come were they fetch 20+% margin a year back?

Can someone please throw some light on this?

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I think reduction in Material cost and manufacturing, Employees cost. Check quarterly result Dec 2021, Sep 2021, Rupa also increase their margin in my view it is due to decrease in the cost of material and manufacturing cost.

Disc:- No investment, just tracking

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So, it was not a sustainable margin.
I like the company brands and growth but the PE is giving wrong impression. Will take a dive if comes below Rs. 1000. Thanks

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Its price went up because of management commentary that company will achieve turnover of 1000cr for ‘Lux Cozy’ only by FY2026.
I can see similar statement was made few months back to achieve this sales by FY25.
All is well if the companies continues to grow. Tracking this one.

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There are also some corporate governance issues, check Q1 2022 insider trading issues, sebi also investigating issues. what i did not know what happened in last, please check insider trading issues happen in may, june 2021. If you find any update please update here. Thanks you. If anyone have any info about this please update.

Hi All,

Any updates on the management issues, changes ? Can we expect a turn around in the next few quarters? Presentation https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/a872bd7b-a14d-4afc-a986-e3d5b80baa9b.pdf seems to have some good financial numbers compared to last year and also management team, initiatives etc.

Whats your views?

disclosure: Invested, small part of portfolio, trying to figure to wait or come out at loss

Regards

Anand

I am not an expert on commodity cycles. But cotton prices seems to be on a rampage and are not showing any sign’s of reprieval.

CNBC report says that the cotton prices hit 75,000 by the mid of this years.
Article: Cotton prices could rise to Rs 75,000 per candy by mid-2023, says Cotton Association of India

The chart shows how cotton prices have flared up overtime. Global issues like COVID, Ukraine War, Climate issues have made prices go astronomical. The cotton prices have gone up 137% is the last 9 months. See the below image.

All industries dealing with cotton are going to face headwinds with raw material cost. Lux Industries also mentioned the same in the Annual report. But long term contracts with buyers should give them some relief.
image

Need to wait and watch if the cotton prices are going to comeback to 15K to 25K range? The company currently uses 90% blended cotton. They could play with the blend further if cotton prices don’t correct or increase prices slowly.

Disclosure: Not invested. Definitely interested.

Annual Report: https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/426007d0-aa6b-4be9-a1bc-4baa16e9ddf1.pdf

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Maybe just that quarter?

Also, promoter shareholding increased from 69% (Dec 2020) to 74% (Sep 2023). I thought promoter had sold shares in past. Is this increase in shareholding because of any reclassification or something?

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Is anyone following the tax evasion update? Has anyone ever met/spoken to management to know their background on ethics? what is the max. penalty for this in case they are guilty?

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@Ankit_Agarwal1 as mentioned by you there were some rumours of separation between 2 promoters does such rumours still exist…its been more then a yr but nothing has been heard after that?

After been given clean chit by sebi on the insider case and now cotton prices stabilising or on a downward trajectory lux industries can be a stock to be kept on radar since it has all the negatives priced in and any positive news or positive result can take the stock price up.

Disc
Invested recently and looking to add more

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