Lupin - Is it the time to buy for long term

[Gary24]

@eyesice

Cr. Since Etanercept biosimilar has completed phase III, out of 11 bn if Lupin can get 3 bn in sales, then it would mean we are getting a revenue of more than 20000 cr from this biosimilar itself. That is revenue could potentially double in 3 years from now.

I would think this is overtly optimistic for following reasons -

1. The initial trend on biosimilar suggest that the price erosion is worse than expected
2. Biocon example shows that promise to reality can be a long walk. Plus, Anything that is not in phase 2 is purely speculation in my view. Those drugs may never see light at end of tunnel.
3. Legal hassles and marketing costs, know-how may impact both ability to get due share and also cost of business

I am actually more optimistic of Lupin’s portfolio on inhalation