replaced Whirlpool with symphony. Lucky to add at 298 and within minutes zoomed to 328!!!
any tips on symphony or pure luck?? agm due tomorrow
no tips.
Reason for switching from whirlpool
Growth sluggish for festival season.
fire in one of the spare parts warehouse, though minor
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/fire-ravages-whirlpool-warehouse-in-wagholi/1030868/2
Above all theweakening rupeeadd to the woes.
For symphony,
concentrating more on expanding the industrialized cooling and sees a new market same as residential segment.
Bullish on exports.
Strong brand with no reasonable competition.New entries like havells, bajaj etc in cooling segment not a major threat as per the company.
The management has guided for a strong Q2FY13, due to a high unexecuted order book of Rs 40 crores for which full advance has been received from dealers/distributors.
Read a report of maximus on symphony which is bullish
While buying symphony make a prayer for a real hot summer ahead. With the crack in price from 450 odd levels to the current 300 odd levels it might look attractive.
Businesswise it is good but depends a lot on type of summer. Chart pattern suggests strong operator influence and it seems the smart money got out above 400 levels.
Hi,
A close friend has been recommending Symphony for sometime and though it looks expensive on PE wise etc, but some of the nos are compelling - like very high growth, high ROE with good dividend last year, the co is debt free and generates good cash flow.
The co did interest me as they have been able to build a brand in perhaps a very highly competitive area - coolers. And they are now taking this concept to the next level.
Would be great if we all can work more on this co.
Hi Ayush,
Same here.A friend of mine has been pushing me constantly to look at this one. They at present sell around 4lac units so market potential is there and also replacement demand kicks in.
Have heard that they have mastered the art of outsourcing manufacturing and management is good and innovative.
Company went into BIFR in i think 2000, due to diworseification ( on advise of some investment banker), but since then have corrected that course and have remained debt-free.
Agree, it looks expensive on P/E basis, so we need to be sure if the business is worth paying the price.
regards,
saurabh
I didnt find any thread for symphony. Since my portfolio includes this stock and am bullish on this one and want to make it 10% of my protfolio, i am adding the link of IDBI Capital after the management meet.
http://www.business-standard.com/content/research_pdf/sym_041212.pdf.
Interesting point was:
Over the period July-Nov,2012 the company has received ~Rs1bn orders from its dealer/distributors.
For these orders the company has received 100% cash advances. Of these orders ~Rs250mn worth__was dispatched in Q1FY13 and the rest will be delivered during Oct,2012-Jan,2013 period.
Apart from this they have made a weighted base price hike of 10% across the protfolio.
So we can expect a very strong Q2 for symphony. Last year sales were just 56 crores.
found the thread today created by hitesh and moved the same info there… Admin kindly delete the info i have pasted in this thread if found repetitive or against the norms.
Hi Krishna,
Can you post your latest portfolio.
Regarding Hawkins-Prestige, on a pessimistic note, what is your expected bear case earnings/price expectations for both over FY13 and FY14. (Just a ballpark would do, not looking for exact figures)
Rudra,
I am Posting my latest portfolio:
Mayur Uniquoters - 35%
Page Industries - 21%
Titan - 14%
TTK Prestige - 12%
Hawkins - 8%
Unichemlabs - 7%
Symphony - 3%
With respect to hawkins, i did visit Bigbazaar and Birla More (routine shopping) here in bangalore and was impressed with the hawkins products stuffed - cookwares/cookers.
There was also an offer going on cookwares where there was a discount of 150/- for buying set of cookwares(which consisted 3 different items)in big bazaar which i was seeing for the first time here in all my visits.
I get the impression that this quarter could be amagnificentquarter for hawkins.
With respect to TTK Prestige, this quarter has been very good for them. They have clocked sales of 40% compared to last year.
Also the cook top sales are growing very fine .
Apart from that i learnt from my colleague who wanted to buy cookwares/induction cook top last month had to visit 2 shops twice, since the products were completely sold off and waiting for the supply.
Overall, prestige should do better when compared to its last 2 quarters…
Hawkins
My estimate is that hawkins would do better in the next 2 years. I believe strongly that they should be doing an EPS of 120-140 by FY14.
According to chairmans speech , had they produced 27% extra i.e 138000 cookers it would have enabled them to do 18 crores. so the price comes around 1300 odd. So i took a rough calculation on the assumption that they are able to sell whatever they produce since demand overtakes supply as per chairman’s speech.
total capacity 12000 cookers per day,
working days - 320(minimum)
Price - 1300
so total Sales = 120003201300 = 500 crores.
Cookware contributed 15% for FY12. This should improve in the coming years. i expect it to add 100 crores.
So total sales comes around to 600 crores operating at full capacity without any issues forthcoming.
Taking it to account the operating leverage and the pricing power through extended sales, i am hoping it should be able to maintain 11% NP margin.
The EPS comes around to 120.
If the growth for FY14 is in excess of 25% then the EPS would be 150.
If the same Div payout ratio is maintained then it is like adding icing to the cake.
I strongly believe they would be adding the capacity by FY14.
Prestige
Prestige should be able to do 25%CAGR for the next 2-3 years. The real trigger will happen if the rupee appreciates to 47- 50 range and the acceptance and sales of their new tie up products whith SchottAG, WorldKitchen and water purifiers.
Prestige should be able to do an EPS of 155 by FY 14 if all the new ventures goes well.
Regarding Hawkins, Nice to see someone doing number crunching in a logical manner with a lot of known facts thrown in. (e.g capacity per day of cookers x no of working days. – only thing i have to add is that the higher capacity cookers tend to cost more. --i think i paid something in excess of 3000 two three months back for buying a futura cooker) So in a sense there could be some upside to the revenues when things go full swing for a full year “without any hitch”
Agree that FY 14 may be a blockbuster year for hawkins.
In short term stock is undergoing correction and might find support at either 2150 or so (38.2% retracement of the recent upmove from 1790 to 2370 plus earlier top region of 2150) or in range of 1999-2040 where there is a rising gap left behind during the above mentioned upmove.
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Thanks Krishna for your view. Really appreciate the scuttlebutt down south, as that is more of a Prestige stronghold.
Thanks Hiteshji, for the technical side.
Will continue further discussion in Hawkins thread.
Added more of kajaria and PC Jeweller today. Initiated positions last month for the 2 stocks and trimmed mayur marginally. Mayur still holds more than 30% however.
Lucky to add PC Jeweller below 150 last month!!!
Krishna paaji,
Kindly request you to see the portfolio ‘Novice’ in the Forum Portfolio Q&A.
Since its a concentrated one & micro-cap heavy, concerned about it.
It will be of immense help, if you can guide me.
Regards
Added hawkins. I believe Hawkins is the story for FY14.
Came out of kajaria and PC jeweller which were just 1% each.
Krishnaji,
The type of stocks that you mostly invest in, just curious to know how come you have not added GRUH Finance to your portfolio. Looking at the pristine opportunity size, the parentage, and growth rate, it makes sense to remain invested in it. It loan book is 1/30th of LIC HF, plus 2nd tier cities are very far from the saturation level that most of the big cities are having as far as real estate is concerned. This shows how big the market size is.
subash,
Gruh is in my radar. Last time when i spoke about this idea with rudra, he too was having a very bullish view and gave me lot of insights which i was not aware of…
The strategy right frombeginningfor me was to stick to 5-6 stocks at any point of time and concentrate on that(which becomes 95% of my portfolio). If i buy gruh, i would like to make it 15% of my portfolio and for that i am just accumulating enough cash. I am a salaried person and all my purchases have been like i accumulate my few months savings and go for the stock when i feel it is relatively priced and start increasing the portfolio percentage if more good things(like earnings, margin improvement, reducing debt) flow. Most of my averaging has been on theupper sideof the price movement. This has worked well for me with respect to page, TTK, mayur, titan etc…
Maintaining scorching pace of growth with pristine asset quality is a very difficult task, particularly in the low ticket loan market for people with irregular cash flows. This is where a GRUH will differentiate ahead of others like Can Fin Homes.
Most likely will convert the non core short term picks (Dishman,CEEBCO etc.) to GRUH. I agree this one commands a double digit allocation at the minimum.
reduced mayur and added page at 3260 today morning.
still mayur constitutes more than 25% of my portfolio. Planning to add titan and symphony gradually.