Latest management interaction (link):
- Current revenue mix: 70% from Pune, 15% from Mumbai and Bangalore. Next year, Pune will come down to 60% and Mumbai will go to 25%
- Should exceed previously guided bookings of 1.8 mn sq.ft for FY21 due to the launch of Life Republic project called “Universe”
- Plan to exceed 3mn sq.ft in FY22 with realizations >6’500 /sq.ft from the current 5’500 due to higher contribution from Mumbai market. Average Mumbai realization > 15’000 / sq.ft
- Strong launch pipeline >5.9mn sq.ft with booking value ~ 5’200 cr (8-10 projects across Pune, Mumbai and Bangalore)
Here are my notes from FY21Q3 concall
- Getting good deals with landowners with 33:67 profit sharing with lower upfront payment which earlier was 40:60 sharing
- Bullish guidance: Want to achieve pre-sales of 5 mn sq.ft over next 3 years (FY24) translating into topline of 3500-4000 cr. If they are successful in doing this, operating leverage will lead to profits of 500 cr.
- Base guidance: Pre-sales of 3.5 mn sq.ft leading to 400 cr. profit by FY24 (on a conservative basis).
- Core of the business model has changed from the earlier higher EBITDA of 40%+ to lower EBITDA of 20-26% but much faster turnover i.e. higher IRRs. Current PAT margins of 8-12% will persist going forward
Disclosure: Invested (position size here)