Kernex: TCAS led multi year growth story

Orders for 70km(30%) to kernex have already been allotted or its anticipated?

The 70km was a historical trial order - award year is mentioned in the document.

Believe the key monitorable is the new tender that has been floated for 1200 km worth 190 crores on 8th March 2019 ( http://tender.itiltd-india.com/HYDERABAD/tenders/SCR%20TCAS%20EOI.pdf)

One of the eligibility criteria is:
“Annual financial turnover during the last 3 years, ending 31st March of the previous financial year should be at least 30% of the estimated cost of the EOI and profit making for each of the last 3 financial years.”

Does Kernex qualify the criteria? According to Screener they are a loss-making company for the last 6 consecutive years. Sales doesn’t meet the criteria either.

b11bd849-d535-49f3-8c61-4c6d8f4491cc.pdf (256.8 KB)

Got orders worth INR 57cr from sri lanka railway

Commentary in annual report FY 19 https://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/annualreport/532686/5326860319.pdf

  1. Order win from Sri Lankan railways worth $8 million = 57 crores
    image

  2. Tender bidding for 1,200 kms of tracks

While the AR doesn’t specifically the value of tender being bid for, indicative value from the link below appears to be 189 crores. http://tender.itiltd-india.com/HYDERABAD/tenders/SCR%20TCAS%20EOI.pdf
image

The progress of this tender would be important to track.

Kernex fresh order announcement.

kernex order announcement sep 22.pdf (319.6 KB)

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Number of shares increased by 15 lakhs. Per share ₹250 is issue price, debt converted to equity.

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Another ₹254 Cr order to Kernex.

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Any news on performance of Kernex? Though their order value is growing but execution is not seen.

As per the latest information in company’s website the total order book is ~Rs.536 crore.

1.PROJECT 1 – NCR-A

Design, Supply, Installation & Commissioning of onboard KAVACH (TCAS) equipment’s in Locomotives & Trackside KAVACH(TCAS) equipment at Station/LC/IBH locations along with entire section 2X24 optic fibre cable backbone, RadioTowers, and associated works. The project to be implemented between ChipyanaBuzurg CPYZ(Excl)-Kanpur CNB(Excl) stations (408.750 KM). The scope of works covers the Supply, Installation and Commissioning of KAVACH(TCAS) in 48 stations and 139 Locomotives. The total value of the contract is 255.22 Cr

2.PROJECT 2 – NCR B

Design, Supply, Installation & Commissioning of onboard KAVACH (TCAS) equipment’s in Locomotives & Trackside KAVACH(TCAS) equipment at Station/LC/IBH locations along with entire section 2X24 optic fibre cable backbone, Radio Towers, and associated works. The project to be implemented between Kanpur CNB(Incl) – Pt Deen Dayal Upadyay DDU(Excl) stations (342.47 KM). The scope of works covers the Supply, Installation and Commissioning of KAVACH(TCAS) in 51 stations and in 158 Locomotives. The total value of the contract is 254.86 Cr

3.PROJECT 3 – TRAIN COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM (TCAS) FOR FURNISHING DIVISION,INTEGRAL COACH FACTORY(CHENNAI)

Supply, Installation & Commissioning of onboard TCAS equipments in Vande Bharat Express EMUS (Semi high speed electric multiple unit train ) for ICF. The total value of the contract is Rs. 26.84 Cr

The timeline for implementation of the existing order as per the information available is as below:

Kernex Microsystem manages Order Book of Rs. 563 crore in the Financial Year 2022-23 - Rail Analysis India.

Looking to the new Railway projects - the business for TCAS will be huge.

hope I am correct @hitesh2710 :pray:

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Disc: not invested, invested in HBL power

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Any idea what is going on here?
When are they going to post the results?

Just checked with the company secretary, and results will be posted within a week.

Any thoughts on current levels around 350…stk corrected significantly from highs. The takeover news by Alstom is faded but the order book is packed. Can promoter b able to execute ??

Kernex has turned positive for the first time after many quarters and the stock has been running on steroids since then.

Excerpts from Fy23 annual report.

As per this the revenue opportunity is Circa 550 cr for the awarded tenders. This can conservatively translate to 50 cr bottom line … After recent run company is available at c. 1400 cr mkt cap

Disc : Not invested …Tracking …

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Kernex FY24 AGM Highlights

  1. Will do 230cr sales in FY25 (can increase if some of new tenders close by December), FY26 will be atleast 3x FY25 revenue
  2. Till date 11600cr worth of new tenders are out (Last tenders 2 years back were 1500cr), out of which 25 tenders are for implementation (kms) and 3 tenders are for Loco
  3. Loco tenders bid close date is October 4th and is expected to be awarded by December 2024
  4. 60-70% tenders of the 28 tenders are expected to be awarded by December, some of the tenders have November bidding so result may come in January
  5. 44000kms worth of tenders to come by 2029, another 10,000km tenders expected after current 10,000km tender
  6. Locos TCAS implementation to be completed in 12 months
  7. Kernex expecting to win 25-30% of total tenders value
  8. Earlier guidance of 900cr sales in FY25 will not be met because the new tenders coming out now were delayed by 1 year and also some of the customers( Railway zones) wanted TCAS 4.0 and not TCAS 3.2, confident of meeting guidance this time
  9. Working capital requirement will be around 150cr for new tenders, have tied up with banks
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Kavach tender worth 7000-7500 crores for Locomotive has closed

what percentage of this do you think could come to kernex?