KB's Portfolio Tracking

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
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This space is created to publicly track my direct equity investment journey. Idea is to keep it simple and not go into detailed spreadsheet for tracking or deep dive into financials of the company. Rationale of each investment and any modification in portfolio will be updated periodically.
Hopefully, this will help in documenting and reflecting on my mistakes, good/bad luck in my journey towards becoming a good predictor of equity investment.

I will categorize myself as a super aggressive investor chasing GARP.
SIP based mutual fund investment will not be tracked here. Direct equity investment is done via following accounts:

  1. Self owned Indian equity (very actively managed and high churning rate)
  2. Mother owned Indian equity (periodic tinkering/churning)
  3. Self owned US equity (actively managed, low churning rate)
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Update #1 || Dec 21, 2025

1. Self owned Indian equity (~65%)

Company Purchase Price % ofPortfolio UnrealisedGain/Loss% Strategy
Balu Forge Industries Ltd 328.92 8.1 91.17 Reduce to 7% on >15% jump
EFC (I) Ltd 302.21 7.2 1.97 Reduce to 6% on >10% jump
Power Mech Projects Ltd 1764.58 6.0 31.7 Hold and track results, cashflow
P N Gadgil Jewellers Ltd 631.57 5.7 -3.07 Increase to 6.5% on >5% dip
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Ltd 336.5 5.5 5.38 Increase to 6.5% on >5% dip
Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd 433.18 4.7 56.02 Increase to 6% on >10% dip
Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd 1212.56 4.2 -9.84 Increase to 5% on >10% dip
S J Logistics (India) Ltd 367.78 4.1 -4.1 Increase to 5% on >10% dip
Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corp Ltd 535.13 4.1 125.14 Hold and track results
Vishnu Chemicals Ltd 356.37 4.0 46.04 Increase to 5% on >20% dip
K.P. Energy Ltd 181.33 3.9 86.18 Exit on >10% dip
Satin Creditcare Network Ltd 148.09 3.7 -4.82 Increase to 5% for MF upcycle
Danish Power Ltd 861.86 3.6 -24.48 Reduce to 3% on >20% jump
Sammaan Capital Ltd 122.86 3.4 18.14 Track for growth with infused capital
Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd 315.15 3.2 159.57 Increase to 4% on >10% dip
Transrail Lighting Ltd 624 3.0 -7.63 Increase to 4% with fresh capital
Capri Global Capital Ltd 194.26 2.8 -7.18 Increase to 4% with fresh capital
Manorama Industries Ltd 1398.48 2.8 -4.01 No new position, track result
Emerald Finance Ltd 80.34 2.5 -9.74 No new position, track result
Shanti Gold International Ltd 207.53 2.5 -6.93 No new position, track result
Standard Glass Lining Technology Ltd 168.86 2.3 -13.05 No new position, track result
EPack Prefab Technologies Ltd 251.39 2.3 15.16 Increase to 4% on >5% dip
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd 610 2.3 41.07 No new position, track result
Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd 658.94 2.1 -19.37 No new position, track result
PC Jeweller Ltd 11.33 2.1 -12.02 No new position, track result
Vilas Transcore Ltd 420.59 1.9 -3.85 Exit on >20% jump
Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd 95.36 1.2 -0.05 Build positions to 5% for longer term
CSB Bank Ltd 384.38 0.6 3.04 Build positions to 5% for longer term

Tracking Positions - Cartrade Tech Ltd, Urban Company Ltd, Ceinsys Tech Ltd, Balaji Amines Ltd, DDev Plastiks Industries Ltd, Epack Durable Ltd, Garware Hi Tech Films Ltd, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, Indiamart Intermesh Ltd, Interarch Building Solutions Ltd, Optiemus Infracom Ltd, Power Finance Corporation Ltd, SG Finserve Ltd, Stallion India Fluorochemicals Ltd, TCC Concept Ltd, Dynamic Cables Ltd, GHCL Textiles Ltd, Hind Rectifiers Ltd, M & B Engineering Ltd, R R Kabel Ltd, Varun Beverages Ltd, Zen Technologies Ltd

2. Mother owned Indian equity (~21%)

Company Avg Purchase Price % ofPortfolio Gain/Loss% Strategy
Sky Gold & Diamonds Ltd 162.22 39.0 96.87 Hold and track results vs guidance.
TD Power Systems Ltd 346.42 17.5 106.72 Hold and track if guidance revised upwards.
Federal Bank Ltd 197.47 10.9 35.64 Hold until Blackstone investment plays out
Rolex Rings Ltd 143.41 6.3 -11.28 Hold for 1-2 quarter for growth turnaround
Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd 744.02 5.9 -1.68 Add more with fresh capital on correction
NCC Ltd 216.82 5.6 -28.07 Average with fresh capital if WC improves
RIR Power Electronics Ltd 76.22 5.4 161.56 Punt on chip making plant in Odisha
Bellacasa 430.32 6.1 -12.16 Hold and track results improvement with new capacity
RBM Infra SME 811.1 3.4 -49.14 Questionable corporate governance. Exit at bounce.

3. Self owned US equity (~8%)

Name Avg Purchase Price % ofPortfolio Gain/Loss% Strategy
INVESCO NASDAQ 100 ETF 108.76 41.4 133.63 Decrease to 30% on jump
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 141.13 27.6 51.23 Decrease to 20% on jump
Micron Technology Inc. 201.1 7.9 32.23 Hold until chip story plays
ASML Holding NV 845.55 6.2 24.89 Hold until chip story plays
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc 12.91 5.7 -21.17 Bitcoin Punt
Vertiv Holdings Co 124.09 5.3 28.8 Hold until DC story plays
MicroStrategy Inc. 222.63 5.1 -25.97 Bitcoin Punt

Tracking position → Coinbase, HUT

4. Self owned SIP India MF (~6%)
SIPs in Helios Flexi, Mirae Mid, Quant Small, Quant Momentum. Often pause and restart SIPs selectively.

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Update #2 || Dec 29, 2025 & Dec 30, 2025

  • No fresh capital available,
  • Added position in Epack Prefab, dip of ~5% due to end of anchor lock-in period.
  • Added position in Capri Global
  • Added position in Bajaj Housing, to add more when fresh capital becomes available.
  • Exited CSB bank (was only a small allocation earlier), will wait for correction to enter at >5% dip and build position when fresh capital becomes available.
  • Exited PC Jeweller, lack of clarity in fundamental and technically very weak. Too much exposure in sector any way.
  • Reduced SGLTL position (high valuation) in lieu of better opportunity

Started to track Time Techno. Fundamentals, business outlook look okay with massive correction of more than 40%.

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Update #3 || Dec 29, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026

Following updates to Mother’s portfolio:

  • Fresh capital infusion of ~2%, increased allocation in Jeena Sikho and slightly in NCC
  • Exited the punts like RIR (will continue to track Odisha facility progress) and RBM infra. Added PFC ltd for long term (divided + cheap valuation with risk of bad loans, market share loss to banking)
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Update #4 || Jan 2, 2026

Following update to personal Indian equity portfolio:

  • No fresh capital available
  • Exited SGLTL in lieu of new position in SG Finserv
  • Rationale: Find SGLTL still very expensive for current market (TTM PE >50), will continue to track for development of technology partnership for manufacturing of glass lined HEX.
    Was tracking SG Finserve and it came out with brilliant quarterly update. P/B <2, growth rate >50% and a business model with lower NPA risk in B2B lending, regulatory concerns resolved execution from management provides confidence to enter now. Will monitor and add more positions with fresh capital.
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Upgrading the Tracking Framework — A More Accountable Way to Follow the Portfolio

After the initial posts in this thread, I received some thoughtful feedback (and had some honest self-reflection) about what was missing from the tracking. The percentage-of-portfolio weights and unrealised G/L% are useful, but they tell an incomplete story. You can’t hold me accountable — or let me hold myself accountable — without a cleaner, more structured way to track performance, churning decisions, and their outcomes over time.

So starting from Update #1 (Dec 21, 2025) as the base, I am upgrading the tracking framework with four concrete additions.

What’s Changing and Why

1. Portfolio Indexed to 100 (No Corpus Disclosure)

I will not disclose the absolute rupee value of the portfolio — that’s personal. But tracking performance in “absolute %” terms (e.g., “the portfolio is up 8%”) is meaningless without knowing whether fresh capital was added. It also makes comparisons across time harder to read.

Solution: The portfolio is assigned an index value of 100.00 as of Dec 21, 2025. Every subsequent update will report the new indexed value alongside a Nifty 500 index (also starting at 100.00) for apples-to-apples comparison. Alpha generated = Portfolio Index movement minus Nifty 500 movement.

This way, it can be tracked whether active stock picking is actually adding value over a passive index — the single most honest question any active investor must answer. Also, addition of fresh capital would lead to normalization of index to previous base capital.

For example:

Current Status (Jan 2, 2026)

Indexed Value Return vs Base
Portfolio 98.30 -1.70%
Nifty 500 97.60 -2.40%
Alpha +0.70%

Early days — a ~2 week sample is statistically meaningless. This will matter at 12, 24, 36 months.

2. Churning Log — Every Move Documented with Rationale and Verdict

Previously, moves were mentioned in prose. Going forward, every BUY / ADD / TRIM / EXIT will be logged in a structured table with:

  • The action taken

  • The stated rationale at the time of the action

  • An immediate verdict on whether the move was logical (separate from whether it was profitable — a good process can have a bad outcome and vice versa)

For example, Updates #2–#4 Churning Log (Backfilled)

Update Action Stock Rationale Verdict
U2 EXIT CSB Bank Small position, waiting for >5% dip to re-enter Neutral — no thesis break, tactical
U2 EXIT PC Jeweller Fundamental ambiguity + technical weakness + sector concentration with PNGJL :white_check_mark: Correct — should have happened at U1
U2 ADD EPack Prefab Anchor lock-in expiry dip, pre-planned entry :white_check_mark: Disciplined execution
U2 ADD Capri Global Averaging down on existing position Neutral — thesis needs Q3 validation
U2 ADD Bajaj Housing Finance Building long-term position :white_check_mark: Correct direction, patience needed
U2 TRIM Standard Glass Lining TTM PE >50, better opportunities available :white_check_mark: Valuation discipline
U3 EXIT RIR Power Electronics Odisha chip punt too speculative for mother’s portfolio :white_check_mark: Right risk call
U3 EXIT RBM Infra SME -49% with corporate governance concerns, exit on bounce :warning: Exit correct, entry was under-researched
U3 NEW PFC Ltd Cheap valuation, dividend yield, conservative long-term fit :white_check_mark: Appropriate for the portfolio it went into
U3 ADD NCC Ltd Averaging into weakness with fresh capital :warning: -28% averaging needs very defined re-assessment trigger
U4 EXIT Standard Glass Lining PE still rich, fully exited after prior trim :white_check_mark: Followed through on valuation discipline
U4 NEW SG Finserve P/B <2, >50% growth, B2B lending model, regulatory risk resolved, strong Q3 update :white_check_mark: Quantifiable entry with clear thesis

3. Critical Analysis of Moves — Process Over Outcome

Markets can reward bad decisions and punish good ones. The only thing I can control is process quality. So alongside the churning log, I will periodically review past moves and rate them honestly on process, not just on how the stock moved.

Ratings used: :white_check_mark: GOOD PROCESS · :warning: CAUTION · :cross_mark: BAD PROCESS

Backfilled Critical Analysis (U1–U4)

PC Jeweller Exit (U2) — :white_check_mark: GOOD Correct identification of sector concentration risk (already holding PNGJL and Sky Gold in mother’s portfolio). Exit on fundamental ambiguity is sound risk management. Only self-criticism: the -12% unrealised loss at U1 was already a signal — exit could have happened a week earlier.

RBM Infra Entry → -49% Exit (U3) — :warning: CAUTION The exit is the right call. But entering an SME stock with known corporate governance concerns is a red flag in the due diligence process. The original entry thesis (“punt”) acknowledged the risk but did not define a pre-set loss limit. Lesson: punts need hard stop-loss levels defined before entry, not managed reactively.

NCC Averaging Down (U3) — :warning: CAUTION Averaging into a -28% loss requires high conviction. The stated trigger — “average if working capital improves” — is vague. What metric? What threshold? What quarter? Vague triggers allow hope to masquerade as strategy. This position needs a clearly defined re-assessment checkpoint.

SGLTL → SG Finserve Switch (U4) — :white_check_mark: GOOD This is exactly the type of active churning that justifies a high-churn approach. SGLTL was flagged as expensive from U1. Trimmed at U2. Fully exited at U4. The replacement (SG Finserve) comes with specific, quantifiable reasons: P/B <2, growth >50%, regulatory overhang cleared, strong Q3 update. The switch meaningfully improves the portfolio’s risk-reward. The only open question: is the Q3 growth structural or seasonal?

4. Forward Commitment — How Future Updates Will Be Structured

Every update going forward will follow this template:

Date | Portfolio Index | Nifty 500 Index | Alpha (cumulative)

NARRATIVE — What happened, why I acted, what I am watching.

CHURNING TABLE — Every move with rationale and immediate verdict.

CRITICAL REVIEW — Retrospective on prior moves where enough time has passed 
to have an informed opinion (typically 1–2 quarters after the move).

A Note on Philosophy

I have described myself as a super-aggressive GARP investor with a high churn rate. High churn is only justifiable if the replacement stock is genuinely better on risk-reward than what it replaces. The SGLTL → SG Finserve switch is a good example of what that looks like. The RBM Infra situation is a good example of what an unstructured punt without defined risk limits looks like.

The goal of this upgraded framework is to close the loop — not just on what I bought and sold, but on whether my decision-making is getting better over time. That’s the only scoreboard that matters in the long run.

Happy to discuss any of the moves or the framework in the replies.

All portfolio weights are within-bucket percentages, not absolute values. No corpus size is disclosed. Indexed value starts at 100.00 on Dec 21, 2025. I would be using AI tools like Claude to help me with this process.

1 Like
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Update #5 || Feb 21, 2026

Portfolio Index

Index Period Return Source / Method
Portfolio 106.6 +6.63% Fresh capital addition normalized
Nifty 500 98.9 -1.05% NSE close 23,644 (Dec 19, 2025) → 23,395 (Feb 20, 2026)
Alpha +7.68%

Index methodology: Return is computed using the Modified Dietz method per bucket — cash injections are removed from the numerator so performance reflects genuine price movement, not capital deployment. Net fresh capital this period was +1.9% of portfolio. Base = Dec 21, 2025 (Index 100). Nifty 500 current = 23,395 confirmed (smart-investing.in, in.investing.com; NSE closed Feb 21 Saturday). Nifty 500 base ≈ 23,644 (estimated from surrounding trading days; will be locked once verified from NSE records).

Capital Flows (% of Portfolio)

Portfolio Direction % of Total
Self India — 5 tranches (Jan 14, Jan 23, Jan 27, Feb 1 ×2) Cash in +2.4%
Mother India — 3 tranches (Jan 1, Jan 16, Feb 9) Cash in +1.6%
US — 3 withdrawals (Jan 13, Jan 22, Jan 26) Cash out (profit repatriation) -2.0%
Net injected +1.9%

Bucket Performance

Bucket Allocation (U1) Period Return
Self India Direct Equity 65% +4.37%
Mother India Direct Equity 21% +12.49%
Self US Direct Equity 8% +12.96%
India MF SIPs 6% +2.19%

1. Self — Indian Direct Equity (~64%)

Positions below 0.2% of portfolio are summarised as Tracking Positions.

Company Avg Price Weight Unreal. G/L Strategy
Balu Forge Industries ₹338 7.93% +45.40% Hold; reduce on price above 600 to rebalance. Revenue from defense line to be watched.
EFC (I) Ltd ₹295 7.07% -10.85% Hold; track execution and seat occupancy above 90%. EBIDTA margin depression mainly due to accounting norms.
Power Mech Projects ₹1,789 6.45% +22.16% Hold; track cashflow. Main trigger O&M revenue to ramp up.
P N Gadgil Jewellers ₹613 6.04% -8.25% Hold; awaiting consumer recovery.
Yatharth Hospital ₹445 5.80% +61.67% Hold; reduce if valuation stretches.
Zaggle Prepaid ₹315 5.55% -25.53% :warning: Reduce on >15% jump to rebalance. — Q3 results positive; stock divergence review. Cashflow positive in next quarter result is key trigger along with AI based disruption in business.
S J Logistics ₹361 4.66% -11.06% Hold; awaiting financial year end results. Working capital days reduction and cashflow to be analyzed.
K.P. Energy ₹200 4.27% +47.25% Hold, business performance and execution remains strong. Strong order book.
Manorama Industries ₹1,368 4.19% +3.73% Hold. Amazing execution, next 3 year growth visibility
Satin Creditcare ₹148 4.16% +4.60% Hold for MF upcycle
Transrail Lighting ₹524 3.81% +8.49% Hold. Watch cashflow and order book building.
Capri Global Capital ₹182 3.72% -5.03% Hold; Q3 was good. Q4 validation needed
Sammaan Capital ₹123 3.72% +25.37% Hold, turnaround story.
Vishnu Chemicals ₹363 3.71% +41.18% Hold, expected gains of Cr mine to kick in FY27.
Techno Electric ₹1,106 3.69% +3.47% Hold; EPC order pipeline key. Vision for 2.0 provided, watch development in data centre theme.
EPack Prefab ₹243 3.39% -22.45% :warning: Q3 results were bad, watch Q4 to meet full year guidance. Accumulate after that. — see churning
Danish Power ₹815 3.36% -18.65% Hold with some tax loss harvesting. Guidance was strong, wait for year end results and cashflow.
SG Finserve ₹392 3.31% +4.82% Hold
Waaree Energies ₹2,946 3.11% -1.63% NEW — Q3 results outstanding; diversification outside Solar and tariff war subsiding along with China subsidy on exporters reduced is favorable.
Vilas Transcore ₹402 2.54% +4.50% Hold to monitor execution in Q4. Realizations expected to be low but margin to be intact.
Motilal Oswal FS ₹629 2.48% +22.22% Hold. Add if >15% correction, long term wealth management play.
Cartrade Tech ₹2,099 2.27% -5.74% NEW — Q3 record quarter; watch out how ad revenues go down with uptick in auto sector.
Shanti Gold Intl ₹206 2.27% +2.87% Hold, exit on >20% jump as hedging principles on gold are weak.
Emerald Finance ₹76 2.24% -15.80% Hold with some tax loss harvesting. If guidance missed in Q4, exit.

Tracking Positions (< 0.2% weight, 1-share or near-exit residuals): Balaji Amines, Blue Jet Healthcare, Ceinsys Tech, Coforge, CSB Bank, Data Patterns, DDev Plastiks, Deepak Fertilisers (residual tracking share), Deepak Spinners, Dynamic Cables, Epack Durable, Garware Hi-Tech Films, Gujarat State Fertilizers, Hind Rectifiers, Indiamart Intermesh, Interarch Building, Optiemus Infracom, R R Kabel, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, TCC Concept, Urban Company, Varanium Cloud, Varun Beverages, Zen Technologies.

2. Mother — Indian Direct Equity (~23%)

Company Avg Price Weight Unreal. G/L Strategy
Sky Gold & Diamonds ₹162 30.79% +122.70% Hold; good plan presented until 2030. Watch cashflow targets being met or not.
TD Power Systems ₹336 12.54% +162.47% Hold; guidance upward revision key. Trim if PE crosses 70.
Jeena Sikho Lifecare ₹728 8.24% -5.11% Hold; building on correction. Amazing execution and growth guidance.
Power Finance Corp ₹360 6.99% +13.99% Hold; dividend + value
Time Technoplast ₹180 6.69% +8.87% NEW — entered on >40% correction. Good guidance with new capacities and lines getting live in Q1FY27
Smartworks Coworking ₹464 5.49% -5.32% NEW — Watch on cashflow getting converted into profit.
NCC Ltd ₹198 5.34% -24.58% :warning: WC trigger still unactivated, promoter buying. Watch orderbook target met or not after Q4.

3. Self — US Direct Equity (~6%)

Company Avg Price Weight G/L
AMD $147 21.7% +36.15%
QQQM $111 21.4% +125.42%
Micron Technology $206 13.6% +108.03%
MicroStrategy $159 11.3% -17.58%
ASML Holding $848 11.2% +73.37%
Vertiv Holdings $126 10.5% +93.75%
Marathon Digital $8.47 10.3% -5.94%

4. Self — India MF SIPs (~7%)

Unrealised return: +22.37% | XIRR: 13.86% SIPs: Helios Flexi, Mirae Mid, Quant Small, Quant Momentum. Pausing/restarting selectively.

Churning Log (Jan 2 → Feb 21, 2026)

Personal India

EXIT — Shyam Metalics & Energy Rationale: Booked gains from a cyclical metals name after +159% gain. Capital redeployed to higher-conviction ideas. Latest developments: Steel/metals sector faces ongoing margin pressure from Chinese overcapacity dumping. Domestic demand softening in H2 FY26. Right time to have exited. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Excellent — booking cyclical multibagger gains on schedule.

EXIT — Deepak Fertilisers (position reduced to tracking share) Rationale: +125% gain largely represents the fertiliser cycle call made at entry. Retaining 1 tracking share. Latest developments: Fertiliser stocks globally correcting as urea prices moderate. DFPCL’s Q3 FY26 revenue grew modestly but margins compressed. No strong next leg visible near-term. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Good — not overstaying a cycle play. Tracking share preserves optionality without commitment.

EXIT — Bajaj Housing Finance Rationale: Build was slow due to lack of fresh capital; opportunity cost too high versus conviction names. Latest developments: BHFL Q3 FY26 — loan book grew ~25% YoY, asset quality holding. Business is fine, but the stock has been range-bound since its IPO pop. No near-term rerating catalyst. Verdict: Neutral — the thesis was long-term and hasn’t broken. Exit was about capital allocation priority, not stock failure.

NEW — Waaree Energies (₹2,946 avg, 3.11% weight) Rationale: India’s largest solar module manufacturer. PLI beneficiary, strong US export presence, capacity expansion in full swing. Latest developments (Q3 FY26, Jan 22, 2026): Record quarter — revenue +119% YoY to ₹7,565 Cr; EBITDA margin expanded to 25.5% (highest ever); PAT +116% YoY. Order book at ₹60,000 Cr, providing multi-year visibility. First Indian manufacturer to achieve 1GW+ module production in a single month. Raised ₹1,000 Cr equity for 20GWh battery facility. Management raised EBITDA guidance to ₹5,500–6,000 Cr for FY26. Stock rallied ~9% post-results. Entry context: Entered at ₹2,946 near correction lows vs ₹2,640 post-result price — entry timing slightly early, but thesis fully validated by results. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Strong — fundamental thesis confirmed emphatically. Hold and possibly add on dips.

NEW — Cartrade Tech (₹2,099 avg, 2.27% weight) Rationale: Digital auto classifieds platform with improving unit economics. Upgraded from tracking list after conviction increased. Latest developments (Q3 FY26, Jan 28, 2026): Record quarter — revenue +18% YoY to ₹228 Cr; EBITDA +56% YoY; EBITDA margin hit all-time high of 37%; PAT +35% YoY to ₹62 Cr. All three segments (Consumer, Remarketing, OLX India) delivered record revenues and margins. CarDekho acquisition shelved — management confident enough in organic growth. 85Mn avg monthly unique visitors, 95% organic. JM Financial upgraded the stock post-results. Entry context: Entered at ₹2,099; stock at ~₹1,978 currently (-5.74%). Post-results, stock rose to ~₹2,536 intraday but has pulled back. The market hasn’t fully re-rated this yet. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Good entry — results validate thesis. Price underperformance is market overhang, not fundamental. Patience warranted.

ADD — Manorama Industries (weight: ~2.8% → 4.19%) Manorama Industries is a specialty fats/cocoa butter equivalent player.

Mother India

EXIT — Federal Bank Rationale: Blackstone investment thesis partially played out; capital redeployed. Latest developments: Federal Bank Q3 FY26 — NII growth moderate at ~10% YoY, CASA ratio stable. Blackstone strategic angle not yet fully priced in. The exit may have been slightly premature if the private equity angle materialises. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Disciplined — partial thesis exit, not a full thesis break. Monitor for re-entry.

EXIT — Rolex Rings Rationale: Auto forging weakness — no near-term catalyst. Latest developments: Auto ancillary sector broadly weak in H2 FY26. EV transition headwinds to forging volumes. No guidance upgrade expected in near quarters. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Correct — exiting a cycle stock without a catalyst is the right discipline.

EXIT — Bellacasa Rationale: New capacity not showing margin improvement; execution uncertainty rising. Latest developments: No major analyst coverage updates. Capacity expansion plays typically need 2–4 quarters post-commissioning before margins improve. Exit may be slightly impatient but avoids further capital impairment if execution delays persist. Verdict: :warning: Marginally impatient — original thesis wasn’t wrong, just slow. However, holding through execution uncertainty in a small-cap is high-risk. Exit defensible.

NEW — Time Technoplast (₹180 avg, 6.69%, +8.87%) Rationale: Rigid plastic packaging + EV battery casings. Tracked from personal watchlist (U2) before entering. Latest developments (Q3 FY26): Revenue +29% YoY, driven by composite cylinders and automotive segments. EV battery casing segment growing from a small base. Management guiding for 20%+ revenue growth in FY27 on capacity additions. Entry context: Entered after >40% correction from highs. Stock has recovered +8.87% from entry, validating the technical entry. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Disciplined — tracked before buying, entered on correction, early results constructive.

NEW — Smartworks Coworking (₹464 avg, 5.49%, -5.32%) Rationale: Enterprise flex-leasing in India. Growing enterprise client roster, IPO-stage company. Latest developments: No Q3 results disclosure yet at time of writing (recently listed). Coworking sector seeing strong enterprise demand from MNCs setting up GCCs in India. Comparable listed player IWG (UK) reporting strong India pipeline. Entry context: -5.32% from entry, early days. The sector thesis is sound but IPO-stage execution risk is real. Verdict: :warning: Too early to judge — needs minimum 2 quarters of post-listing results. Watch occupancy rates and enterprise client adds.

Self — US

Overview of US portfolio reshaping (Dec 21, 2025 → Feb 21, 2026):

Ticker U1 Wt U5 Wt Δ Weight U1 Shares U5 Shares Δ Shares $ Moved Action
QQQM 41.4% 21.4% -20.0pp 89.3 39.8 -49.5 -$12,639 TRIM
AMD 27.6% 21.7% -5.9pp 72.5 50.5 -22.1 -$4,559 TRIM
MU 7.9% 13.6% +5.7pp 16.3 14.8 -1.5 -$528 PRICE DRIFT
MSTR 5.1% 11.3% +6.2pp 24.3 40.3 +16.0 +$1,990 ADD
VRT 5.3% 10.5% +5.2pp 18.3 20.1 +1.7 +$348 ADD
MARA 5.7% 10.3% +4.6pp 478.6 605.4 +126.8 +$928 ADD
ASML 6.2% 11.2% +5.0pp 3.3 3.6 +0.3 +$337 PRICE DRIFT

Gross sold: ~$17,726 · Gross reinvested within US: ~$3,604 · Net repatriated to India: ~$15,100 (3 tranches: $7,000 + $5,100 + $3,000)

TRIM — QQQM (41.4% → 21.4% | sold 49.5 shares | ~$12,639 proceeds) Rationale: A passively managed ETF ballooning to 41% of an active portfolio was a structural contradiction. Sold across 3 tranches, proceeds repatriated to India. Latest developments: NASDAQ 100 drifted ~5% lower in Jan–Feb 2026 on mixed tech earnings and rate uncertainty. QQQM’s G/L compressed from +133.63% (U1) to +125.42% now — confirming the trim captured near-peak values. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Excellent process — long overdue concentration fix. The only self-critique: why wait until U5? This trim could have started at U2/U3 and been executed more gradually at higher prices.

TRIM — AMD (27.6% → 21.7% | sold 22 shares | ~$4,559 proceeds) Rationale: Rebalancing alongside QQQM trim; AI chip thesis remains intact. Latest developments (Q4 2025, Jan 28, 2026): Revenue +24% YoY, data center segment +69% YoY to $3.9B. But Q1 2026 guidance of $7.1B missed consensus $7.4B, citing near-term inventory digestion. Stock fell ~6% post-results. G/L has compressed from +51.23% (U1) to +36.15% now. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Well-timed — the trim inadvertently front-ran a guidance disappointment. AI chip thesis long-term intact; current weight of 21.7% is appropriate.

PRICE DRIFT — MU (7.9% → 13.6% | sold 1.5 shares | negligible) Context: MU’s weight jumped 5.7pp entirely because the stock doubled (+108% G/L vs +32% at U1). The 1.5 share reduction is a rounding artefact, not a decision. MU is now the 3rd largest US holding at 13.6% through passive drift alone. Latest developments: MU HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue tripled YoY in Q4 FY25, driven by AI inference compute demand. Strong visibility into 2026 from AI data centre customers. Verdict: :warning: Needs an active decision — a stock doubling its portfolio weight passively is a flag. At 13.6%, should MU be trimmed to recycle gains, or is the AI memory supercycle thesis strong enough to hold? This needs a stated answer in the next update.

ADD — MSTR / MicroStrategy (5.1% → 11.3% | bought +16 shares | ~$1,990) Rationale: Doubled down on leveraged Bitcoin treasury exposure as a paired bet alongside MARA. Latest developments (Q4 2025, reported Feb 5, 2026): Reported a $12.44B net loss driven by $17.44B in unrealized BTC losses — Bitcoin fell 25% in Q4. Company now holds 713,502 BTC at a cost basis of $66,384/BTC. With BTC at ~$68,840 (Feb 17), holdings are barely above water. Stock is down ~66% from its all-time high of $457. Class action lawsuits allege overstated Bitcoin strategy profitability. Positive: MSCI shelved its exclusion of crypto treasury companies (Jan 6), removing a major index-flow overhang. Management established a $2.25B cash reserve for 2.5+ years of dividend coverage — some liquidity reassurance. Bitcoin “yield” (BTC per diluted share growth) hit 22.8% in 2025 despite equity dilution. Verdict: :warning: High-risk addition at the wrong moment — buying +16 shares into a stock down 66% from ATH with BTC below the company’s cost basis requires very strong Bitcoin conviction. The add was made near the bottom of BTC’s pullback which could prove prescient, but this is speculation not investment. Hard cap: MSTR + MARA combined should not exceed 20–22% of the US bucket. Currently at 21.6% — already at the limit.

ADD — VRT / Vertiv Holdings (5.3% → 10.5% | bought +1.7 shares | ~$348) Rationale: Token addition to the data centre infrastructure theme. Latest developments (Q4 2025, reported Feb 11, 2026): Exceptional quarter — Q4 organic orders +252% YoY and +117% QoQ; backlog hit $15B, up 109% YoY; book-to-bill ratio ~2.9x; adjusted EPS $1.36, beat by $0.10. Full-year 2026 guidance: adj EPS $5.97–$6.07 (+43% YoY), net sales $13.25–$13.75B (+28% organic). Stock jumped +18.49% post-results. AI data centre buildout is creating extraordinary multi-year order visibility. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Strong hold — consider meaningful add — VRT is executing flawlessly. The 1.7-share addition was negligible relative to the conviction the results justify. At 10.5% of US bucket and +93.75% G/L, there is still room to build this into a 15%+ position given the backlog strength.

ADD — MARA / Marathon Digital (5.7% → 10.3% | bought +127 shares | ~$928) Rationale: Paired Bitcoin mining add alongside MSTR; direct BTC price leverage via the largest listed miner. Latest developments: Q4 2025 results due Feb 25–26, 2026 (not yet released). Analysts expect EPS of -$0.23. Stock at ~$7.51, near 52-week low of $6.66 vs high of $23.45 — down ~68% from peak. CEO Fred Thiel warned in November: “Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game. As more people add capacity, it gets harder for everybody else. Margins compress, and the floor is your energy cost.” MARA is targeting 75 EH/s by end-2025 and pivoting toward vertical integration (owning power assets) to reduce cost per BTC. Verdict: :warning: Speculative punt, Q4 results are the first real checkpoint — the 127-share add at ~$7–8 is a recovery bet on BTC and mining margins. Unlike MSTR, MARA has real operational revenue — if BTC recovers above $80K and hash rate expansion plays out, the stock could 2–3x from here. But if BTC stays depressed, this position will bleed. Q4 results (Feb 25) and Q1 guidance are the triggers. Define a stop-loss level before results.

PRICE DRIFT — ASML (6.2% → 11.2% | bought 0.3 shares | ~$337 — essentially unchanged) Context: ASML’s weight nearly doubled from 6.2% to 11.2% purely via price appreciation (+73% G/L). The 0.3 share addition is negligible. Like MU, this is a passive drift situation, not an active sizing decision. Latest developments (Q4 2025, Jan 29, 2026): Net bookings surged to €7.09B — dramatically above consensus of €4B — driven by EUV lithography demand from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel ramping AI chip production. ASML reaffirmed its monopoly position in extreme ultraviolet lithography; no credible competitor exists. Management guided for strong 2026 on continued AI semiconductor capex. Verdict: :white_check_mark: Thesis intact, but active decision needed on sizing — at 11.2% via drift, is this the intended weight? ASML’s monopoly position arguably justifies a large allocation, but that decision should be made explicitly, not by default. State whether to hold at 11%+ or trim to a target weight in the next update.

Critical Analysis

Zaggle — Q3 Results vs. Stock Price Divergence Q3 FY26 results (reported Feb 12, 2026) were the best ever — revenue +48% YoY to ₹498 Cr, adjusted EBITDA crossed ₹50 Cr for the first time (+63% YoY), PAT +78% YoY. Management confirmed working capital breakeven in FY26 and positive OCF by FY27. Signed 7-year Visa and 5-year Mastercard partnerships. Stock is still -25.53% from entry. The divergence between fundamentals (improving) and price (weak) is explained by institutional selling — both FII stake (8.64% → 7.61%) and MF stake (4.60% → 3.70%) declined in Q3. The market is not wrong to be cautious on a stock that’s been -35% from its 52-week high despite good results — it signals institutional confidence issues beyond just one quarter. Revised stance: Hold, not reduce. Q3 results remove the immediate exit trigger. But if FII/MF selling continues in Q4 disclosures, the weight will need to be cut. Next trigger: Q4 FY26 results + Q3 shareholding pattern.

EPack Prefab — Q3 Results: Seasonal Decline, Thesis Intact But Watch Closely Q3 FY26 results (Jan 22, 2026) showed -24% QoQ revenue decline and -43% QoQ PAT decline, causing a 10% lower circuit hit. However, management attributed this to seasonal project delays (monsoon and design approval lags), which is standard for this business. 9M FY26 revenue grew +41% YoY and EBITDA +57% YoY — on track with IPO guidance. Order book at ₹1,215 Cr (7-8 months visibility). FY26 guidance of ₹1,500–1,550 Cr maintained. Management expects Q4 to be ₹450–500 Cr (strong recovery). Also flagged: CARE Ratings noted ₹11.72 Cr fund comingling from non-IPO accounts — a minor governance note to keep in mind. The thesis is not broken, but the stock is pricing in continued execution risk. The -22.45% unrealised loss is partly mechanical (IPO stock, low liquidity, weak market). Q4 FY26 results remain the make-or-break: if guidance is met, the stock should rerate. If revenue falls short, reduce.

Waaree — Entry Validated, Now Think About Reduce Triggers Q3 results were exceptional. The only risk is valuation — at current price (near ₹2,640–2,897 range post-results), the stock trades at a premium. The US export thesis carries Trump tariff risk (solar panels from India could face reciprocal tariffs). Monitor US policy developments closely. Action: Define the first reduce trigger — suggest reducing 20% of position if US imposes >25% tariff on Indian solar modules.

NCC Ltd (Mother) — Still No Resolution Now -24.58% on a 5.34% weight with fresh capital added. NCC Q3 FY26 results not yet disclosed at time of writing. The working capital metric remains the sole trigger for any averaging or holding decision. If Q3 results don’t show WC improvement, this becomes a forced exit situation at a loss — which is worse than a disciplined exit now. Last warning before action: Q3 FY26 results are the final check. No improvement = reduce by at least 50%.

What I Am Watching

  • Zaggle: Q4 FY26 results + Q3 shareholding pattern (FII/MF trend)

  • EPack Prefab: Q4 FY26 revenue — must be ₹450–500 Cr to validate guidance

  • NCC Ltd: Q3 FY26 results — working capital is the only trigger that matters

  • US bet on crypto heavy companies

  • Waaree: US tariff policy on solar module imports

  • TD Power: Planning exit/reduce triggers for >150% gainers

  • Cartrade Tech: Market re-rating post-record Q3 — watch institutional buying

All weights are within-bucket percentages. No corpus size disclosed. Positions below 0.2% summarised as Tracking Positions. Portfolio index base = 100 on Dec 21, 2025. Nifty 500 = 23,644 (Dec 19, 2025, est.) → 23,395 (Feb 20, 2026, confirmed). Net fresh capital = +1.9% of portfolio.

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