KB's Portfolio Tracking

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · December 20, 2025, 4:19pm

This space is created to publicly track my direct equity investment journey. Idea is to keep it simple and not go into detailed spreadsheet for tracking or deep dive into financials of the company. Rationale of each investment and any modification in portfolio will be updated periodically.
Hopefully, this will help in documenting and reflecting on my mistakes, good/bad luck in my journey towards becoming a good predictor of equity investment.

I will categorize myself as a super aggressive investor chasing GARP.
SIP based mutual fund investment will not be tracked here. Direct equity investment is done via following accounts:

Self owned Indian equity (very actively managed and high churning rate)
Mother owned Indian equity (periodic tinkering/churning)
Self owned US equity (actively managed, low churning rate)

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · December 21, 2025, 7:24am

Update #1 || Dec 21, 2025

1. Self owned Indian equity (~65%)

Company	Purchase Price	% ofPortfolio	UnrealisedGain/Loss%	Strategy
Balu Forge Industries Ltd	328.92	8.1	91.17	Reduce to 7% on >15% jump
EFC (I) Ltd	302.21	7.2	1.97	Reduce to 6% on >10% jump
Power Mech Projects Ltd	1764.58	6.0	31.7	Hold and track results, cashflow
P N Gadgil Jewellers Ltd	631.57	5.7	-3.07	Increase to 6.5% on >5% dip
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Ltd	336.5	5.5	5.38	Increase to 6.5% on >5% dip
Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd	433.18	4.7	56.02	Increase to 6% on >10% dip
Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd	1212.56	4.2	-9.84	Increase to 5% on >10% dip
S J Logistics (India) Ltd	367.78	4.1	-4.1	Increase to 5% on >10% dip
Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corp Ltd	535.13	4.1	125.14	Hold and track results
Vishnu Chemicals Ltd	356.37	4.0	46.04	Increase to 5% on >20% dip
K.P. Energy Ltd	181.33	3.9	86.18	Exit on >10% dip
Satin Creditcare Network Ltd	148.09	3.7	-4.82	Increase to 5% for MF upcycle
Danish Power Ltd	861.86	3.6	-24.48	Reduce to 3% on >20% jump
Sammaan Capital Ltd	122.86	3.4	18.14	Track for growth with infused capital
Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd	315.15	3.2	159.57	Increase to 4% on >10% dip
Transrail Lighting Ltd	624	3.0	-7.63	Increase to 4% with fresh capital
Capri Global Capital Ltd	194.26	2.8	-7.18	Increase to 4% with fresh capital
Manorama Industries Ltd	1398.48	2.8	-4.01	No new position, track result
Emerald Finance Ltd	80.34	2.5	-9.74	No new position, track result
Shanti Gold International Ltd	207.53	2.5	-6.93	No new position, track result
Standard Glass Lining Technology Ltd	168.86	2.3	-13.05	No new position, track result
EPack Prefab Technologies Ltd	251.39	2.3	15.16	Increase to 4% on >5% dip
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	610	2.3	41.07	No new position, track result
Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd	658.94	2.1	-19.37	No new position, track result
PC Jeweller Ltd	11.33	2.1	-12.02	No new position, track result
Vilas Transcore Ltd	420.59	1.9	-3.85	Exit on >20% jump
Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd	95.36	1.2	-0.05	Build positions to 5% for longer term
CSB Bank Ltd	384.38	0.6	3.04	Build positions to 5% for longer term

Tracking Positions - Cartrade Tech Ltd, Urban Company Ltd, Ceinsys Tech Ltd, Balaji Amines Ltd, DDev Plastiks Industries Ltd, Epack Durable Ltd, Garware Hi Tech Films Ltd, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, Indiamart Intermesh Ltd, Interarch Building Solutions Ltd, Optiemus Infracom Ltd, Power Finance Corporation Ltd, SG Finserve Ltd, Stallion India Fluorochemicals Ltd, TCC Concept Ltd, Dynamic Cables Ltd, GHCL Textiles Ltd, Hind Rectifiers Ltd, M & B Engineering Ltd, R R Kabel Ltd, Varun Beverages Ltd, Zen Technologies Ltd

2. Mother owned Indian equity (~21%)

Company	Avg Purchase Price	% ofPortfolio	Gain/Loss%	Strategy
Sky Gold & Diamonds Ltd	162.22	39.0	96.87	Hold and track results vs guidance.
TD Power Systems Ltd	346.42	17.5	106.72	Hold and track if guidance revised upwards.
Federal Bank Ltd	197.47	10.9	35.64	Hold until Blackstone investment plays out
Rolex Rings Ltd	143.41	6.3	-11.28	Hold for 1-2 quarter for growth turnaround
Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd	744.02	5.9	-1.68	Add more with fresh capital on correction
NCC Ltd	216.82	5.6	-28.07	Average with fresh capital if WC improves
RIR Power Electronics Ltd	76.22	5.4	161.56	Punt on chip making plant in Odisha
Bellacasa	430.32	6.1	-12.16	Hold and track results improvement with new capacity
RBM Infra SME	811.1	3.4	-49.14	Questionable corporate governance. Exit at bounce.

3. Self owned US equity (~8%)

Name	Avg Purchase Price	% ofPortfolio	Gain/Loss%	Strategy
INVESCO NASDAQ 100 ETF	108.76	41.4	133.63	Decrease to 30% on jump
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.	141.13	27.6	51.23	Decrease to 20% on jump
Micron Technology Inc.	201.1	7.9	32.23	Hold until chip story plays
ASML Holding NV	845.55	6.2	24.89	Hold until chip story plays
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc	12.91	5.7	-21.17	Bitcoin Punt
Vertiv Holdings Co	124.09	5.3	28.8	Hold until DC story plays
MicroStrategy Inc.	222.63	5.1	-25.97	Bitcoin Punt

Tracking position → Coinbase, HUT

4. Self owned SIP India MF (~6%)
SIPs in Helios Flexi, Mirae Mid, Quant Small, Quant Momentum. Often pause and restart SIPs selectively.

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · December 29, 2025, 5:42am

Update #2 || Dec 29, 2025 & Dec 30, 2025

No fresh capital available,
Added position in Epack Prefab, dip of ~5% due to end of anchor lock-in period.
Added position in Capri Global
Added position in Bajaj Housing, to add more when fresh capital becomes available.
Exited CSB bank (was only a small allocation earlier), will wait for correction to enter at >5% dip and build position when fresh capital becomes available.
Exited PC Jeweller, lack of clarity in fundamental and technically very weak. Too much exposure in sector any way.
Reduced SGLTL position (high valuation) in lieu of better opportunity

Started to track Time Techno. Fundamentals, business outlook look okay with massive correction of more than 40%.

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · January 1, 2026, 4:24am

Update #3 || Dec 29, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026

Following updates to Mother’s portfolio:

Fresh capital infusion of ~2%, increased allocation in Jeena Sikho and slightly in NCC
Exited the punts like RIR (will continue to track Odisha facility progress) and RBM infra. Added PFC ltd for long term (divided + cheap valuation with risk of bad loans, market share loss to banking)

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · January 2, 2026, 8:41am

Update #4 || Jan 2, 2026

Following update to personal Indian equity portfolio:

No fresh capital available
Exited SGLTL in lieu of new position in SG Finserv
Rationale: Find SGLTL still very expensive for current market (TTM PE >50), will continue to track for development of technology partnership for manufacturing of glass lined HEX.
Was tracking SG Finserve and it came out with brilliant quarterly update. P/B <2, growth rate >50% and a business model with lower NPA risk in B2B lending, regulatory concerns resolved execution from management provides confidence to enter now. Will monitor and add more positions with fresh capital.

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Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · February 21, 2026, 4:49pm

Upgrading the Tracking Framework — A More Accountable Way to Follow the Portfolio

After the initial posts in this thread, I received some thoughtful feedback (and had some honest self-reflection) about what was missing from the tracking. The percentage-of-portfolio weights and unrealised G/L% are useful, but they tell an incomplete story. You can’t hold me accountable — or let me hold myself accountable — without a cleaner, more structured way to track performance, churning decisions, and their outcomes over time.

So starting from Update #1 (Dec 21, 2025) as the base, I am upgrading the tracking framework with four concrete additions.

What’s Changing and Why

1. Portfolio Indexed to 100 (No Corpus Disclosure)

I will not disclose the absolute rupee value of the portfolio — that’s personal. But tracking performance in “absolute %” terms (e.g., “the portfolio is up 8%”) is meaningless without knowing whether fresh capital was added. It also makes comparisons across time harder to read.

Solution: The portfolio is assigned an index value of 100.00 as of Dec 21, 2025. Every subsequent update will report the new indexed value alongside a Nifty 500 index (also starting at 100.00) for apples-to-apples comparison. Alpha generated = Portfolio Index movement minus Nifty 500 movement.

This way, it can be tracked whether active stock picking is actually adding value over a passive index — the single most honest question any active investor must answer. Also, addition of fresh capital would lead to normalization of index to previous base capital.

For example:

Current Status (Jan 2, 2026)

Indexed Value Return vs Base

Portfolio 98.30 -1.70%

Nifty 500 97.60 -2.40%

Alpha +0.70%

Early days — a ~2 week sample is statistically meaningless. This will matter at 12, 24, 36 months.

2. Churning Log — Every Move Documented with Rationale and Verdict

Previously, moves were mentioned in prose. Going forward, every BUY / ADD / TRIM / EXIT will be logged in a structured table with:

The action taken
The stated rationale at the time of the action
An immediate verdict on whether the move was logical (separate from whether it was profitable — a good process can have a bad outcome and vice versa)

For example, Updates #2–#4 Churning Log (Backfilled)

Update	Action	Stock	Rationale	Verdict
U2	EXIT	CSB Bank	Small position, waiting for >5% dip to re-enter	Neutral — no thesis break, tactical
U2	EXIT	PC Jeweller	Fundamental ambiguity + technical weakness + sector concentration with PNGJL	Correct — should have happened at U1
U2	ADD	EPack Prefab	Anchor lock-in expiry dip, pre-planned entry	Disciplined execution
U2	ADD	Capri Global	Averaging down on existing position	Neutral — thesis needs Q3 validation
U2	ADD	Bajaj Housing Finance	Building long-term position	Correct direction, patience needed
U2	TRIM	Standard Glass Lining	TTM PE >50, better opportunities available	Valuation discipline
U3	EXIT	RIR Power Electronics	Odisha chip punt too speculative for mother’s portfolio	Right risk call
U3	EXIT	RBM Infra SME	-49% with corporate governance concerns, exit on bounce	Exit correct, entry was under-researched
U3	NEW	PFC Ltd	Cheap valuation, dividend yield, conservative long-term fit	Appropriate for the portfolio it went into
U3	ADD	NCC Ltd	Averaging into weakness with fresh capital	-28% averaging needs very defined re-assessment trigger
U4	EXIT	Standard Glass Lining	PE still rich, fully exited after prior trim	Followed through on valuation discipline
U4	NEW	SG Finserve	P/B <2, >50% growth, B2B lending model, regulatory risk resolved, strong Q3 update	Quantifiable entry with clear thesis

3. Critical Analysis of Moves — Process Over Outcome

Markets can reward bad decisions and punish good ones. The only thing I can control is process quality. So alongside the churning log, I will periodically review past moves and rate them honestly on process, not just on how the stock moved.

Ratings used: GOOD PROCESS · CAUTION · BAD PROCESS

Backfilled Critical Analysis (U1–U4)

PC Jeweller Exit (U2) — GOOD Correct identification of sector concentration risk (already holding PNGJL and Sky Gold in mother’s portfolio). Exit on fundamental ambiguity is sound risk management. Only self-criticism: the -12% unrealised loss at U1 was already a signal — exit could have happened a week earlier.

RBM Infra Entry → -49% Exit (U3) — CAUTION The exit is the right call. But entering an SME stock with known corporate governance concerns is a red flag in the due diligence process. The original entry thesis (“punt”) acknowledged the risk but did not define a pre-set loss limit. Lesson: punts need hard stop-loss levels defined before entry, not managed reactively.

NCC Averaging Down (U3) — CAUTION Averaging into a -28% loss requires high conviction. The stated trigger — “average if working capital improves” — is vague. What metric? What threshold? What quarter? Vague triggers allow hope to masquerade as strategy. This position needs a clearly defined re-assessment checkpoint.

SGLTL → SG Finserve Switch (U4) — GOOD This is exactly the type of active churning that justifies a high-churn approach. SGLTL was flagged as expensive from U1. Trimmed at U2. Fully exited at U4. The replacement (SG Finserve) comes with specific, quantifiable reasons: P/B <2, growth >50%, regulatory overhang cleared, strong Q3 update. The switch meaningfully improves the portfolio’s risk-reward. The only open question: is the Q3 growth structural or seasonal?

4. Forward Commitment — How Future Updates Will Be Structured

Every update going forward will follow this template:

Date | Portfolio Index | Nifty 500 Index | Alpha (cumulative)

NARRATIVE — What happened, why I acted, what I am watching.

CHURNING TABLE — Every move with rationale and immediate verdict.

CRITICAL REVIEW — Retrospective on prior moves where enough time has passed 
to have an informed opinion (typically 1–2 quarters after the move).

A Note on Philosophy

I have described myself as a super-aggressive GARP investor with a high churn rate. High churn is only justifiable if the replacement stock is genuinely better on risk-reward than what it replaces. The SGLTL → SG Finserve switch is a good example of what that looks like. The RBM Infra situation is a good example of what an unstructured punt without defined risk limits looks like.

The goal of this upgraded framework is to close the loop — not just on what I bought and sold, but on whether my decision-making is getting better over time. That’s the only scoreboard that matters in the long run.

Happy to discuss any of the moves or the framework in the replies.

All portfolio weights are within-bucket percentages, not absolute values. No corpus size is disclosed. Indexed value starts at 100.00 on Dec 21, 2025. I would be using AI tools like Claude to help me with this process.

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · February 22, 2026, 1:46pm

Update #5 || Feb 21, 2026

Portfolio Index

	Index	Period Return	Source / Method
Portfolio	106.6	+6.63%	Fresh capital addition normalized
Nifty 500	98.9	-1.05%	NSE close 23,644 (Dec 19, 2025) → 23,395 (Feb 20, 2026)
Alpha		+7.68%

Index methodology: Return is computed using the Modified Dietz method per bucket — cash injections are removed from the numerator so performance reflects genuine price movement, not capital deployment. Net fresh capital this period was +1.9% of portfolio. Base = Dec 21, 2025 (Index 100). Nifty 500 current = 23,395 confirmed (smart-investing.in, in.investing.com; NSE closed Feb 21 Saturday). Nifty 500 base ≈ 23,644 (estimated from surrounding trading days; will be locked once verified from NSE records).

Capital Flows (% of Portfolio)

Portfolio	Direction	% of Total
Self India — 5 tranches (Jan 14, Jan 23, Jan 27, Feb 1 ×2)	Cash in	+2.4%
Mother India — 3 tranches (Jan 1, Jan 16, Feb 9)	Cash in	+1.6%
US — 3 withdrawals (Jan 13, Jan 22, Jan 26)	Cash out (profit repatriation)	-2.0%
Net injected		+1.9%

Bucket Performance

Bucket	Allocation (U1)	Period Return
Self India Direct Equity	65%	+4.37%
Mother India Direct Equity	21%	+12.49%
Self US Direct Equity	8%	+12.96%
India MF SIPs	6%	+2.19%

1. Self — Indian Direct Equity (~64%)

Positions below 0.2% of portfolio are summarised as Tracking Positions.

Company	Avg Price	Weight	Unreal. G/L	Strategy
Balu Forge Industries	₹338	7.93%	+45.40%	Hold; reduce on price above 600 to rebalance. Revenue from defense line to be watched.
EFC (I) Ltd	₹295	7.07%	-10.85%	Hold; track execution and seat occupancy above 90%. EBIDTA margin depression mainly due to accounting norms.
Power Mech Projects	₹1,789	6.45%	+22.16%	Hold; track cashflow. Main trigger O&M revenue to ramp up.
P N Gadgil Jewellers	₹613	6.04%	-8.25%	Hold; awaiting consumer recovery.
Yatharth Hospital	₹445	5.80%	+61.67%	Hold; reduce if valuation stretches.
Zaggle Prepaid	₹315	5.55%	-25.53%	Reduce on >15% jump to rebalance. — Q3 results positive; stock divergence review. Cashflow positive in next quarter result is key trigger along with AI based disruption in business.
S J Logistics	₹361	4.66%	-11.06%	Hold; awaiting financial year end results. Working capital days reduction and cashflow to be analyzed.
K.P. Energy	₹200	4.27%	+47.25%	Hold, business performance and execution remains strong. Strong order book.
Manorama Industries	₹1,368	4.19%	+3.73%	Hold. Amazing execution, next 3 year growth visibility
Satin Creditcare	₹148	4.16%	+4.60%	Hold for MF upcycle
Transrail Lighting	₹524	3.81%	+8.49%	Hold. Watch cashflow and order book building.
Capri Global Capital	₹182	3.72%	-5.03%	Hold; Q3 was good. Q4 validation needed
Sammaan Capital	₹123	3.72%	+25.37%	Hold, turnaround story.
Vishnu Chemicals	₹363	3.71%	+41.18%	Hold, expected gains of Cr mine to kick in FY27.
Techno Electric	₹1,106	3.69%	+3.47%	Hold; EPC order pipeline key. Vision for 2.0 provided, watch development in data centre theme.
EPack Prefab	₹243	3.39%	-22.45%	Q3 results were bad, watch Q4 to meet full year guidance. Accumulate after that. — see churning
Danish Power	₹815	3.36%	-18.65%	Hold with some tax loss harvesting. Guidance was strong, wait for year end results and cashflow.
SG Finserve	₹392	3.31%	+4.82%	Hold
Waaree Energies	₹2,946	3.11%	-1.63%	NEW — Q3 results outstanding; diversification outside Solar and tariff war subsiding along with China subsidy on exporters reduced is favorable.
Vilas Transcore	₹402	2.54%	+4.50%	Hold to monitor execution in Q4. Realizations expected to be low but margin to be intact.
Motilal Oswal FS	₹629	2.48%	+22.22%	Hold. Add if >15% correction, long term wealth management play.
Cartrade Tech	₹2,099	2.27%	-5.74%	NEW — Q3 record quarter; watch out how ad revenues go down with uptick in auto sector.
Shanti Gold Intl	₹206	2.27%	+2.87%	Hold, exit on >20% jump as hedging principles on gold are weak.
Emerald Finance	₹76	2.24%	-15.80%	Hold with some tax loss harvesting. If guidance missed in Q4, exit.

Tracking Positions (< 0.2% weight, 1-share or near-exit residuals): Balaji Amines, Blue Jet Healthcare, Ceinsys Tech, Coforge, CSB Bank, Data Patterns, DDev Plastiks, Deepak Fertilisers (residual tracking share), Deepak Spinners, Dynamic Cables, Epack Durable, Garware Hi-Tech Films, Gujarat State Fertilizers, Hind Rectifiers, Indiamart Intermesh, Interarch Building, Optiemus Infracom, R R Kabel, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, TCC Concept, Urban Company, Varanium Cloud, Varun Beverages, Zen Technologies.

2. Mother — Indian Direct Equity (~23%)

Company	Avg Price	Weight	Unreal. G/L	Strategy
Sky Gold & Diamonds	₹162	30.79%	+122.70%	Hold; good plan presented until 2030. Watch cashflow targets being met or not.
TD Power Systems	₹336	12.54%	+162.47%	Hold; guidance upward revision key. Trim if PE crosses 70.
Jeena Sikho Lifecare	₹728	8.24%	-5.11%	Hold; building on correction. Amazing execution and growth guidance.
Power Finance Corp	₹360	6.99%	+13.99%	Hold; dividend + value
Time Technoplast	₹180	6.69%	+8.87%	NEW — entered on >40% correction. Good guidance with new capacities and lines getting live in Q1FY27
Smartworks Coworking	₹464	5.49%	-5.32%	NEW — Watch on cashflow getting converted into profit.
NCC Ltd	₹198	5.34%	-24.58%	WC trigger still unactivated, promoter buying. Watch orderbook target met or not after Q4.

3. Self — US Direct Equity (~6%)

Company	Avg Price	Weight	G/L
AMD	$147	21.7%	+36.15%
QQQM	$111	21.4%	+125.42%
Micron Technology	$206	13.6%	+108.03%
MicroStrategy	$159	11.3%	-17.58%
ASML Holding	$848	11.2%	+73.37%
Vertiv Holdings	$126	10.5%	+93.75%
Marathon Digital	$8.47	10.3%	-5.94%

4. Self — India MF SIPs (~7%)

Unrealised return: +22.37% | XIRR: 13.86% SIPs: Helios Flexi, Mirae Mid, Quant Small, Quant Momentum. Pausing/restarting selectively.

Churning Log (Jan 2 → Feb 21, 2026)

Personal India

EXIT — Shyam Metalics & Energy Rationale: Booked gains from a cyclical metals name after +159% gain. Capital redeployed to higher-conviction ideas. Latest developments: Steel/metals sector faces ongoing margin pressure from Chinese overcapacity dumping. Domestic demand softening in H2 FY26. Right time to have exited. Verdict: Excellent — booking cyclical multibagger gains on schedule.

EXIT — Deepak Fertilisers (position reduced to tracking share) Rationale: +125% gain largely represents the fertiliser cycle call made at entry. Retaining 1 tracking share. Latest developments: Fertiliser stocks globally correcting as urea prices moderate. DFPCL’s Q3 FY26 revenue grew modestly but margins compressed. No strong next leg visible near-term. Verdict: Good — not overstaying a cycle play. Tracking share preserves optionality without commitment.

EXIT — Bajaj Housing Finance Rationale: Build was slow due to lack of fresh capital; opportunity cost too high versus conviction names. Latest developments: BHFL Q3 FY26 — loan book grew ~25% YoY, asset quality holding. Business is fine, but the stock has been range-bound since its IPO pop. No near-term rerating catalyst. Verdict: Neutral — the thesis was long-term and hasn’t broken. Exit was about capital allocation priority, not stock failure.

NEW — Waaree Energies (₹2,946 avg, 3.11% weight) Rationale: India’s largest solar module manufacturer. PLI beneficiary, strong US export presence, capacity expansion in full swing. Latest developments (Q3 FY26, Jan 22, 2026): Record quarter — revenue +119% YoY to ₹7,565 Cr; EBITDA margin expanded to 25.5% (highest ever); PAT +116% YoY. Order book at ₹60,000 Cr, providing multi-year visibility. First Indian manufacturer to achieve 1GW+ module production in a single month. Raised ₹1,000 Cr equity for 20GWh battery facility. Management raised EBITDA guidance to ₹5,500–6,000 Cr for FY26. Stock rallied ~9% post-results. Entry context: Entered at ₹2,946 near correction lows vs ₹2,640 post-result price — entry timing slightly early, but thesis fully validated by results. Verdict: Strong — fundamental thesis confirmed emphatically. Hold and possibly add on dips.

NEW — Cartrade Tech (₹2,099 avg, 2.27% weight) Rationale: Digital auto classifieds platform with improving unit economics. Upgraded from tracking list after conviction increased. Latest developments (Q3 FY26, Jan 28, 2026): Record quarter — revenue +18% YoY to ₹228 Cr; EBITDA +56% YoY; EBITDA margin hit all-time high of 37%; PAT +35% YoY to ₹62 Cr. All three segments (Consumer, Remarketing, OLX India) delivered record revenues and margins. CarDekho acquisition shelved — management confident enough in organic growth. 85Mn avg monthly unique visitors, 95% organic. JM Financial upgraded the stock post-results. Entry context: Entered at ₹2,099; stock at ~₹1,978 currently (-5.74%). Post-results, stock rose to ~₹2,536 intraday but has pulled back. The market hasn’t fully re-rated this yet. Verdict: Good entry — results validate thesis. Price underperformance is market overhang, not fundamental. Patience warranted.

ADD — Manorama Industries (weight: ~2.8% → 4.19%) Manorama Industries is a specialty fats/cocoa butter equivalent player.

Mother India

EXIT — Federal Bank Rationale: Blackstone investment thesis partially played out; capital redeployed. Latest developments: Federal Bank Q3 FY26 — NII growth moderate at ~10% YoY, CASA ratio stable. Blackstone strategic angle not yet fully priced in. The exit may have been slightly premature if the private equity angle materialises. Verdict: Disciplined — partial thesis exit, not a full thesis break. Monitor for re-entry.

EXIT — Rolex Rings Rationale: Auto forging weakness — no near-term catalyst. Latest developments: Auto ancillary sector broadly weak in H2 FY26. EV transition headwinds to forging volumes. No guidance upgrade expected in near quarters. Verdict: Correct — exiting a cycle stock without a catalyst is the right discipline.

EXIT — Bellacasa Rationale: New capacity not showing margin improvement; execution uncertainty rising. Latest developments: No major analyst coverage updates. Capacity expansion plays typically need 2–4 quarters post-commissioning before margins improve. Exit may be slightly impatient but avoids further capital impairment if execution delays persist. Verdict: Marginally impatient — original thesis wasn’t wrong, just slow. However, holding through execution uncertainty in a small-cap is high-risk. Exit defensible.

NEW — Time Technoplast (₹180 avg, 6.69%, +8.87%) Rationale: Rigid plastic packaging + EV battery casings. Tracked from personal watchlist (U2) before entering. Latest developments (Q3 FY26): Revenue +29% YoY, driven by composite cylinders and automotive segments. EV battery casing segment growing from a small base. Management guiding for 20%+ revenue growth in FY27 on capacity additions. Entry context: Entered after >40% correction from highs. Stock has recovered +8.87% from entry, validating the technical entry. Verdict: Disciplined — tracked before buying, entered on correction, early results constructive.

NEW — Smartworks Coworking (₹464 avg, 5.49%, -5.32%) Rationale: Enterprise flex-leasing in India. Growing enterprise client roster, IPO-stage company. Latest developments: No Q3 results disclosure yet at time of writing (recently listed). Coworking sector seeing strong enterprise demand from MNCs setting up GCCs in India. Comparable listed player IWG (UK) reporting strong India pipeline. Entry context: -5.32% from entry, early days. The sector thesis is sound but IPO-stage execution risk is real. Verdict: Too early to judge — needs minimum 2 quarters of post-listing results. Watch occupancy rates and enterprise client adds.

Self — US

Overview of US portfolio reshaping (Dec 21, 2025 → Feb 21, 2026):

Ticker	U1 Wt	U5 Wt	Δ Weight	U1 Shares	U5 Shares	Δ Shares	$ Moved	Action
QQQM	41.4%	21.4%	-20.0pp	89.3	39.8	-49.5	-$12,639	TRIM
AMD	27.6%	21.7%	-5.9pp	72.5	50.5	-22.1	-$4,559	TRIM
MU	7.9%	13.6%	+5.7pp	16.3	14.8	-1.5	-$528	PRICE DRIFT
MSTR	5.1%	11.3%	+6.2pp	24.3	40.3	+16.0	+$1,990	ADD
VRT	5.3%	10.5%	+5.2pp	18.3	20.1	+1.7	+$348	ADD
MARA	5.7%	10.3%	+4.6pp	478.6	605.4	+126.8	+$928	ADD
ASML	6.2%	11.2%	+5.0pp	3.3	3.6	+0.3	+$337	PRICE DRIFT

Gross sold: ~$17,726 · Gross reinvested within US: ~$3,604 · Net repatriated to India: ~$15,100 (3 tranches: $7,000 + $5,100 + $3,000)

TRIM — QQQM (41.4% → 21.4% | sold 49.5 shares | ~$12,639 proceeds) Rationale: A passively managed ETF ballooning to 41% of an active portfolio was a structural contradiction. Sold across 3 tranches, proceeds repatriated to India. Latest developments: NASDAQ 100 drifted ~5% lower in Jan–Feb 2026 on mixed tech earnings and rate uncertainty. QQQM’s G/L compressed from +133.63% (U1) to +125.42% now — confirming the trim captured near-peak values. Verdict: Excellent process — long overdue concentration fix. The only self-critique: why wait until U5? This trim could have started at U2/U3 and been executed more gradually at higher prices.

TRIM — AMD (27.6% → 21.7% | sold 22 shares | ~$4,559 proceeds) Rationale: Rebalancing alongside QQQM trim; AI chip thesis remains intact. Latest developments (Q4 2025, Jan 28, 2026): Revenue +24% YoY, data center segment +69% YoY to $3.9B. But Q1 2026 guidance of $7.1B missed consensus $7.4B, citing near-term inventory digestion. Stock fell ~6% post-results. G/L has compressed from +51.23% (U1) to +36.15% now. Verdict: Well-timed — the trim inadvertently front-ran a guidance disappointment. AI chip thesis long-term intact; current weight of 21.7% is appropriate.

PRICE DRIFT — MU (7.9% → 13.6% | sold 1.5 shares | negligible) Context: MU’s weight jumped 5.7pp entirely because the stock doubled (+108% G/L vs +32% at U1). The 1.5 share reduction is a rounding artefact, not a decision. MU is now the 3rd largest US holding at 13.6% through passive drift alone. Latest developments: MU HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue tripled YoY in Q4 FY25, driven by AI inference compute demand. Strong visibility into 2026 from AI data centre customers. Verdict: Needs an active decision — a stock doubling its portfolio weight passively is a flag. At 13.6%, should MU be trimmed to recycle gains, or is the AI memory supercycle thesis strong enough to hold? This needs a stated answer in the next update.

ADD — MSTR / MicroStrategy (5.1% → 11.3% | bought +16 shares | ~$1,990) Rationale: Doubled down on leveraged Bitcoin treasury exposure as a paired bet alongside MARA. Latest developments (Q4 2025, reported Feb 5, 2026): Reported a $12.44B net loss driven by $17.44B in unrealized BTC losses — Bitcoin fell 25% in Q4. Company now holds 713,502 BTC at a cost basis of $66,384/BTC. With BTC at ~$68,840 (Feb 17), holdings are barely above water. Stock is down ~66% from its all-time high of $457. Class action lawsuits allege overstated Bitcoin strategy profitability. Positive: MSCI shelved its exclusion of crypto treasury companies (Jan 6), removing a major index-flow overhang. Management established a $2.25B cash reserve for 2.5+ years of dividend coverage — some liquidity reassurance. Bitcoin “yield” (BTC per diluted share growth) hit 22.8% in 2025 despite equity dilution. Verdict: High-risk addition at the wrong moment — buying +16 shares into a stock down 66% from ATH with BTC below the company’s cost basis requires very strong Bitcoin conviction. The add was made near the bottom of BTC’s pullback which could prove prescient, but this is speculation not investment. Hard cap: MSTR + MARA combined should not exceed 20–22% of the US bucket. Currently at 21.6% — already at the limit.

ADD — VRT / Vertiv Holdings (5.3% → 10.5% | bought +1.7 shares | ~$348) Rationale: Token addition to the data centre infrastructure theme. Latest developments (Q4 2025, reported Feb 11, 2026): Exceptional quarter — Q4 organic orders +252% YoY and +117% QoQ; backlog hit $15B, up 109% YoY; book-to-bill ratio ~2.9x; adjusted EPS $1.36, beat by $0.10. Full-year 2026 guidance: adj EPS $5.97–$6.07 (+43% YoY), net sales $13.25–$13.75B (+28% organic). Stock jumped +18.49% post-results. AI data centre buildout is creating extraordinary multi-year order visibility. Verdict: Strong hold — consider meaningful add — VRT is executing flawlessly. The 1.7-share addition was negligible relative to the conviction the results justify. At 10.5% of US bucket and +93.75% G/L, there is still room to build this into a 15%+ position given the backlog strength.

ADD — MARA / Marathon Digital (5.7% → 10.3% | bought +127 shares | ~$928) Rationale: Paired Bitcoin mining add alongside MSTR; direct BTC price leverage via the largest listed miner. Latest developments: Q4 2025 results due Feb 25–26, 2026 (not yet released). Analysts expect EPS of -$0.23. Stock at ~$7.51, near 52-week low of $6.66 vs high of $23.45 — down ~68% from peak. CEO Fred Thiel warned in November: “Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game. As more people add capacity, it gets harder for everybody else. Margins compress, and the floor is your energy cost.” MARA is targeting 75 EH/s by end-2025 and pivoting toward vertical integration (owning power assets) to reduce cost per BTC. Verdict: Speculative punt, Q4 results are the first real checkpoint — the 127-share add at ~$7–8 is a recovery bet on BTC and mining margins. Unlike MSTR, MARA has real operational revenue — if BTC recovers above $80K and hash rate expansion plays out, the stock could 2–3x from here. But if BTC stays depressed, this position will bleed. Q4 results (Feb 25) and Q1 guidance are the triggers. Define a stop-loss level before results.

PRICE DRIFT — ASML (6.2% → 11.2% | bought 0.3 shares | ~$337 — essentially unchanged) Context: ASML’s weight nearly doubled from 6.2% to 11.2% purely via price appreciation (+73% G/L). The 0.3 share addition is negligible. Like MU, this is a passive drift situation, not an active sizing decision. Latest developments (Q4 2025, Jan 29, 2026): Net bookings surged to €7.09B — dramatically above consensus of €4B — driven by EUV lithography demand from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel ramping AI chip production. ASML reaffirmed its monopoly position in extreme ultraviolet lithography; no credible competitor exists. Management guided for strong 2026 on continued AI semiconductor capex. Verdict: Thesis intact, but active decision needed on sizing — at 11.2% via drift, is this the intended weight? ASML’s monopoly position arguably justifies a large allocation, but that decision should be made explicitly, not by default. State whether to hold at 11%+ or trim to a target weight in the next update.

Critical Analysis

Zaggle — Q3 Results vs. Stock Price Divergence Q3 FY26 results (reported Feb 12, 2026) were the best ever — revenue +48% YoY to ₹498 Cr, adjusted EBITDA crossed ₹50 Cr for the first time (+63% YoY), PAT +78% YoY. Management confirmed working capital breakeven in FY26 and positive OCF by FY27. Signed 7-year Visa and 5-year Mastercard partnerships. Stock is still -25.53% from entry. The divergence between fundamentals (improving) and price (weak) is explained by institutional selling — both FII stake (8.64% → 7.61%) and MF stake (4.60% → 3.70%) declined in Q3. The market is not wrong to be cautious on a stock that’s been -35% from its 52-week high despite good results — it signals institutional confidence issues beyond just one quarter. Revised stance: Hold, not reduce. Q3 results remove the immediate exit trigger. But if FII/MF selling continues in Q4 disclosures, the weight will need to be cut. Next trigger: Q4 FY26 results + Q3 shareholding pattern.

EPack Prefab — Q3 Results: Seasonal Decline, Thesis Intact But Watch Closely Q3 FY26 results (Jan 22, 2026) showed -24% QoQ revenue decline and -43% QoQ PAT decline, causing a 10% lower circuit hit. However, management attributed this to seasonal project delays (monsoon and design approval lags), which is standard for this business. 9M FY26 revenue grew +41% YoY and EBITDA +57% YoY — on track with IPO guidance. Order book at ₹1,215 Cr (7-8 months visibility). FY26 guidance of ₹1,500–1,550 Cr maintained. Management expects Q4 to be ₹450–500 Cr (strong recovery). Also flagged: CARE Ratings noted ₹11.72 Cr fund comingling from non-IPO accounts — a minor governance note to keep in mind. The thesis is not broken, but the stock is pricing in continued execution risk. The -22.45% unrealised loss is partly mechanical (IPO stock, low liquidity, weak market). Q4 FY26 results remain the make-or-break: if guidance is met, the stock should rerate. If revenue falls short, reduce.

Waaree — Entry Validated, Now Think About Reduce Triggers Q3 results were exceptional. The only risk is valuation — at current price (near ₹2,640–2,897 range post-results), the stock trades at a premium. The US export thesis carries Trump tariff risk (solar panels from India could face reciprocal tariffs). Monitor US policy developments closely. Action: Define the first reduce trigger — suggest reducing 20% of position if US imposes >25% tariff on Indian solar modules.

NCC Ltd (Mother) — Still No Resolution Now -24.58% on a 5.34% weight with fresh capital added. NCC Q3 FY26 results not yet disclosed at time of writing. The working capital metric remains the sole trigger for any averaging or holding decision. If Q3 results don’t show WC improvement, this becomes a forced exit situation at a loss — which is worse than a disciplined exit now. Last warning before action: Q3 FY26 results are the final check. No improvement = reduce by at least 50%.

What I Am Watching

Zaggle: Q4 FY26 results + Q3 shareholding pattern (FII/MF trend)
EPack Prefab: Q4 FY26 revenue — must be ₹450–500 Cr to validate guidance
NCC Ltd: Q3 FY26 results — working capital is the only trigger that matters
US bet on crypto heavy companies
Waaree: US tariff policy on solar module imports
TD Power: Planning exit/reduce triggers for >150% gainers
Cartrade Tech: Market re-rating post-record Q3 — watch institutional buying

All weights are within-bucket percentages. No corpus size disclosed. Positions below 0.2% summarised as Tracking Positions. Portfolio index base = 100 on Dec 21, 2025. Nifty 500 = 23,644 (Dec 19, 2025, est.) → 23,395 (Feb 20, 2026, confirmed). Net fresh capital = +1.9% of portfolio.

Kinshuk_Bhardwaj · April 12, 2026, 7:20pm

Update#6 || Apr 12, 2026

About This Tracker

This thread tracks my direct equity portfolio across three accounts — self-owned Indian equity (actively managed, high churn), mother’s Indian equity (periodically reviewed), and self-owned US equity (lower churn).

Normalization methodology: The portfolio index uses Dec 21, 2025 as base (= 100). Performance is normalized for fresh capital additions and withdrawals. If the portfolio was 100 and net fresh capital of 5 was added in the period, the normalized value is calculated as Current Value × 100 ÷ (100 + 5), stripping out the capital contribution effect and reflecting only market performance. All figures in this update are percentages — no absolute corpus values are disclosed.

Portfolio Index

	Index	Period Return	Basis
Portfolio (normalized)	113.6	+13.6%	Dec 21, 2025 = 100; fresh capital stripped out
Nifty 500	94.5	−5.5%	23,644 (Dec 21, 2025) → 22,346 (Apr 11, 2026)
Alpha		+19.1%

Net fresh capital added this period: +2.4% of portfolio. Nifty 500 close Apr 11, 2026 confirmed at 22,346. USD/INR: ₹93.0 (Apr 11, 2026).

Bucket Allocation (current)

Bucket	% of Portfolio	Period Notes
Self India Direct Equity	~64%	Two accounts, holdings merged
Mother India Direct Equity	~23%
Self US Direct Equity	~7%	~1.1% currency tailwind (₹84.5→₹93) embedded in return
India MF SIPs	~5%	XIRR 11.7%

Capital Flows (% of portfolio)

Account	Direction	% of Portfolio
Self India — Account 2	Fresh capital added (20 tranches, Feb–Mar 2026)	+3.4%
Self India — Account 1	No cash ledger available	—
Mother India	Fresh capital added (4 tranches, Mar 2026)	+1.2%
Self US	Profit repatriation (4 withdrawals, Jan–Mar 2026)	−2.3%
Net		+2.4%

1. Self — Indian Direct Equity (~64%)

Two demat accounts combined. Stocks marked * have no purchase cost data — shares were transferred in without historical cost records. For stocks held across both accounts, the average price reflects the original purchase price (same lot).

Positions < 0.5% of combined self-India total are Tracking Positions.

Company	Avg Price	Weight	Unreal. G/L	Strategy
Balu Forge Industries Ltd	₹338	7.06%	+37.7%	Reduce to 6% on next >15% rally
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Ltd	₹247	6.98%	+1.9%	Hold; Q4 institutional flow & results key
EFC (I) Ltd	₹245	6.53%	−18.7%	Hold; working capital recovery is the trigger
P N Gadgil Jewellers Ltd	₹595	6.41%	+6.8%	Hold; consumer discretionary recovery thesis
Power Mech Projects Ltd	₹1,789	6.27%	+26.3%	Hold; track execution and order inflows
S J Logistics (India) Ltd	₹305	6.00%	−3.7%	Hold; await demand trigger
Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd	₹445	5.72%	+69.6%	Hold; reduce if valuation exceeds 35× TTM
K.P. Energy Ltd	₹214	5.35%	+41.4%	Exit on >10% dip from CMP
Waaree Energies Ltd	₹2,910	4.14%	+12.8%	Hold; anti-dumping final ruling (Jul 2026) is key risk
EPack Prefab Technologies Ltd	₹173	4.03%	+2.7%	Q4 results are make-or-break
Capri Global Capital Ltd	N/A*	3.71%	—	Hold; Q4 validation needed
Satin Creditcare Network Ltd	₹148	3.62%	+8.0%	Hold; NBFC sector recovery play
Manorama Industries Ltd	₹1,368	3.58%	−5.6%	Hold; Q4 results key
Vishnu Chemicals Ltd	₹363	3.51%	+41.8%	Hold; increase to 5% on >20% dip
Transrail Lighting Ltd	N/A*	3.50%	—	Hold; continue building
Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd	N/A*	3.38%	—	Hold; EPC order pipeline critical
Cartrade Tech Ltd	N/A*	2.92%	—	Hold; AI ecosystem launch, re-rating underway
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	₹640	2.91%	+20.2%	Hold; no new addition
SG Finserve Ltd	₹388	2.91%	+18.8%	Build on dips; loan book scaling well
Sammaan Capital Ltd	₹124	2.75%	+26.1%	Hold
C2C Advanced Systems Ltd	₹338	2.73%	+39.4%	Hold; order wins to track
Danish Power Ltd	₹704	2.33%	−2.9%	Hold; awaiting reversal
Vilas Transcore Ltd	₹375	2.15%	+12.1%	Exit on >20% jump
Coforge Ltd	₹1,161	1.11%	+5.4%	Small tracking position; IT recovery play

Tracking Positions (< 0.5%): Emerald Finance Ltd, Garware Hi-Tech Films Ltd, Welspun Living Ltd, Ceinsys Tech Ltd, Hind Rectifiers Ltd, TCC Concept Ltd, Varanium Cloud Ltd

2. Mother — Indian Direct Equity (~23%)

Company	Avg Price	Weight	Unreal. G/L	Strategy
Sky Gold & Diamonds Ltd	₹162	40.4%	+140.1%	Hold; define reduce trigger — +175% is the line
TD Power Systems Ltd	₹333	12.8%	+178.0%	Hold; guidance upward revision is the next catalyst
Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd	₹701	12.4%	−4.8%	Hold; add on correction
Time Technoplast Ltd	₹179	9.3%	+4.3%	New position; track first 2 quarters post-entry
Power Finance Corporation Ltd	₹360	9.0%	+20.9%	Hold; dividend + value; watch NPA risks
Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd	₹452	8.1%	−10.3%	New position; monitor 2 quarters of occupancy data
NCC Ltd	₹189	8.0%	−19.0%	Q3 WC metrics still negative — Q4 is final trigger

3. Self — US Direct Equity (~7%)

Via Vested (DriveWealth). All weights within the US bucket.

Ticker	Company	Avg Cost	Weight	G/L	Strategy
QQQM	Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF	$111.46	18.2%	+125.7%	Trim to ~15% on NASDAQ rally; passive core
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	$147.88	17.6%	+65.7%	Hold; trim on >20% jump
MSTR	Strategy Inc. (MicroStrategy)	$127.72	14.9%	+0.7%	Bitcoin punt; exit if BTC < $55K
MARA	MARA Holdings	$8.04	13.8%	+18.6%	Bitcoin punt; exit on Q results miss or BTC < $60K
MU	Micron Technology	$218.57	13.0%	+92.4%	Hold; AI memory cycle thesis intact
VRT	Vertiv Holdings	$125.80	11.4%	+134.6%	Build toward 15% on dips; DC infra core
ASML	ASML Holding NV	$883.28	11.0%	+67.4%	Hold; define target weight explicitly next update

4. Self — India MF (~5%)

Unrealised return: +21.7% | XIRR: 11.7%

Scheme	Category	Return
Quant Small Cap Fund	Small Cap	+21.2%
Mirae Asset Flexi Cap Fund	Flexi Cap	+28.3%
Helios Flexi Cap Fund	Flexi Cap	+12.6%
Mirae Asset Midcap Fund	Mid Cap	+13.0%
Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund	Mid Cap	+9.1%
Edelweiss Small Cap Fund	Small Cap	+1.2%

Churning Log

Compared against U1 (Dec 21, 2025) — the last full snapshot.

Self — India

EXIT — Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corp Ltd (was ~4.1%, held since ₹535, +125% G/L at exit)

Q3 FY26 was a sharp deterioration: PAT fell 44% YoY despite 10% revenue growth, EBITDA margin compressed from 18.85% to 12.48% — the lowest in four quarters. Unseasonal rains hurt TAN/mining chemicals demand; IPA prices slumped on lower propylene costs globally. ICRA placed the company on rating watch in April 2026. Two major capex projects (Gopalpur TAN, Dahej nitric acid) are 91% and 79% complete — commissioning slipped to Q1 FY27, adding near-term interest burden (Net Debt/EBITDA at 2.27×). Rationale: Margin inflection keeps getting pushed out quarter by quarter. Position was built at commodity-cycle tailwinds that are now reversing. Exited at +125% holding profit; that runway is behind us. Watch: Q1 FY27 commissioning of Gopalpur — could revive thesis if TAN capacity ramp drives margin recovery. Verdict: Correct exit — fundamentals deteriorating while capex cycle peaks.

EXIT — Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (was ~3.2%, +159% G/L at exit)

Q3 FY26: Revenue +18% YoY (volume +25%), but PAT fell 25% QoQ. EBITDA margin 11% — secular compression from 12%+ in H1. ROCE has fallen from a 5-year average of 21% to ~11% TTM, indicating capital efficiency deterioration. Board approved ₹6,660 crore capex, partly debt-funded — this signals another 2-3 years of elevated leverage and capex drag. Q4 volume data is strong (stainless steel +59% YoY, pellets +44%), but realizations remain under pressure. Rationale: The stock was a capital cycle bet that delivered. Holding through a peak-margin, peak-valuation phase while they fund an aggressive next-cycle capex felt like unnecessary risk, given +159% gains already on the table. Watch: Q4 FY26 results + management guidance on FY27 margin trajectory. Verdict: Well-timed exit; cycle awareness was the thesis.

EXIT — Standard Glass Lining Technology Ltd (was ~2.3%)

Exited to fund SG Finserve. SGLTL remains on tracking list — waiting for valuation compression to re-entry levels. Verdict: Capital redeployment exit; no fundamental change in thesis.

EXIT — Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd, PC Jeweller Ltd, Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd, CSB Bank Ltd (small positions — 0.6%–2.1%)

All sub-threshold exits to free up capital for higher-conviction additions. Blue Jet at −19% was a thesis failure (regulatory uncertainty, no recovery signal). PC Jeweller exited on fundamental concerns. Bajaj Housing and CSB were small tactical positions that never built conviction. Verdict: Portfolio hygiene — low-conviction, low-weight.

EXIT — Shanti Gold International Ltd (was ~2.5%, moved to tracking)

Moved to tracking — still held in small quantity. No fundamental exit. Verdict: Monitor.

NEW — SG Finserve Ltd (current weight 2.91%, avg ₹388)

Supply-chain focused NBFC (B2B lending). Q3 FY26: Revenue +103% YoY, PAT +37% YoY, loan book ₹3,211 crore (+105% YoY). FY26 provisional: loan book ₹3,934 crore (+75% YoY, +23% QoQ). Credit ratings: AA(CE) from ICRA (long-term), A1+ (short-term). Business model: factoring and supply chain financing to corporate ecosystems — lower NPA risk than retail NBFC. Risks: Interest costs rising sharply (+20% QoQ in Q3 as book scales); leverage increasing; regulatory NBFC environment remains uncertain. Watch: Q4 FY26 full results — NPA trend and cost-of-funds trajectory. Verdict: Entry thesis confirmed by Q3/Q4 execution. Build on dips.

NEW — Cartrade Tech Ltd (current weight 2.92%, cost N/A — transferred position)

Digital automotive marketplace (CarWale, BikeWale, OLX India, Shriram Automall). Q3 FY26: Record revenue, EBITDA margin 37% (up from 9% three years ago), PAT +35% YoY, zero debt, ₹1,145cr cash reserve. Three-year Revenue CAGR 32%, PAT CAGR 83%. Launched multi-agent AI ecosystem (Mar 2026) — AI-led car discovery, pricing, financing. Tata MF crossed 5% shareholding post Q3 results. Paused CarDekho acquisition — confident in organic growth. Risks: Valuation at ~55-65× TTM PE is demanding; any growth miss compresses stock sharply. Watch: Q4 FY26 results; AI ecosystem traction (conversion uplift); used car financing product launch. Verdict: Strong thesis — high-quality, capital-light, compounding digital marketplace.

NEW — Waaree Energies Ltd (current weight 4.14%, avg ₹2,910)

India’s largest solar module manufacturer. Q3 FY26: Revenue +119% YoY, PAT +118% YoY — record quarter. Order book ₹60,000 crore (60% US-facing). US manufacturing capacity being built to 4.2 GW (Texas + Arizona). Key development: US Commerce Dept imposed 126% preliminary CVD on Indian solar exports (Feb 25, 2026). Management confirmed: no material impact — Waaree sources cells from non-Indian geographies for US shipments, making the 126% duty inapplicable. However, a separate anti-dumping investigation is ongoing, with a preliminary ruling expected by April 2026 and final determination in July 2026. Risks: AD duty final ruling in July 2026 is the single biggest risk. CBP supply-chain investigation ongoing. Domestic panel oversupply if export routes constrain. Watch: Anti-dumping preliminary ruling (April 2026), July 2026 final determination. Any guidance cut on US order book execution. Verdict: Strong fundamentals, but significant regulatory overhang through mid-2026. Define exit trigger before July ruling.

NEW — C2C Advanced Systems Ltd (current weight 2.73%, avg ₹338)

Defense electronics SME — C4I systems, combat management, counter-drone, surveillance. Listed Dec 2024 (NSE SME, IPO at ₹226, listed at ₹429). Recent order wins: Counter-drone mission computing systems (Mar 2026), Hindustan Shipyard WECDIS order (₹160–180cr indicative over 3 years), LOI from Smart Tech ICT Malaysia for airport deployment. Revenue growth 412% in FY24. Export capability demonstrated: Combat Management System sold to Royal Malaysian Navy. Risks: SME; revenue concentration in government/defense contracts; execution risk on scaling; limited analyst coverage. Watch: Annual results (FY26), order book buildup, WECDIS execution, Malaysia PoC conversion. Verdict: Small speculative position in India’s defense indigenization story — early-stage, high-risk.

NEW — Coforge Ltd (current weight 1.11%, avg ₹1,161)

Mid-cap IT services (BFSI, travel, healthcare verticals). Small tracking position opened during IT sector correction. Thesis: BFSI tech spending revival + margin recovery. Risks: Macro slowdown in developed markets; US BFSI discretionary spend remains uncertain. Watch: Q4 FY26 deal wins, attrition, revenue growth guidance for FY27. Verdict: Starter position only. Will build conviction over 1-2 quarters of results.

WEIGHT CHANGES — Self India (≥0.5pp vs U1)

Company	U1 Wt	Current Wt	Δ	Note
S J Logistics (India) Ltd	4.1%	6.0%	+1.9pp	Added on correction
EPack Prefab Technologies Ltd	2.3%	4.0%	+1.7pp	Added on dips; Q4 critical
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Ltd	5.5%	7.0%	+1.5pp	Added; Q3 positive
K.P. Energy Ltd	3.9%	5.4%	+1.5pp	Added
Yatharth Hospital	4.7%	5.7%	+1.0pp	Added on dip
Manorama Industries Ltd	2.8%	3.6%	+0.8pp	Added
Capri Global Capital Ltd	2.8%	3.7%	+0.9pp	Added
P N Gadgil Jewellers Ltd	5.7%	6.4%	+0.7pp	Added
Balu Forge Industries Ltd	8.1%	7.1%	−1.0pp	Price drift + partial trim
Danish Power Ltd	3.6%	2.3%	−1.3pp	Price drift + partial exit
Techno Electric & Engineering	4.2%	3.4%	−0.8pp	Price drift
EFC (I) Ltd	7.2%	6.5%	−0.7pp	Price drift
Sammaan Capital Ltd	3.4%	2.8%	−0.6pp	Price drift

Mother — India

EXIT — Federal Bank Ltd (was ~10.9%)

Exited as Blackstone investment thesis played out partially. Capital redeployed into Time Technoplast and Smartworks. Verdict: Thesis exit; Blackstone stake did not materially re-rate.

EXIT — Rolex Rings Ltd, RIR Power Electronics Ltd, Bellacasa, RBM Infra SME

Rolex Rings: Growth turnaround did not materialize in 2 quarters; exited. RIR Power Electronics: Odisha chip facility thesis did not progress; tracking continues. Bellacasa: Capacity expansion did not translate to results improvement. RBM Infra SME: Corporate governance concerns as flagged in U1; exited at bounce. Verdict: Disciplined exits on thesis failure.

NEW — Time Technoplast Ltd (current weight 9.3%, avg ₹179)

Polymer packaging — Industrial and consumer segments. Entered on >40% correction. Q3 FY26: +4.3% unrealised. Fundamentals stable, tracking the post-entry quarters. Watch: FY26 annual results; margin trajectory post raw material normalization. Verdict: Monitor 2 quarters post-entry before increasing conviction.

NEW — Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd (current weight 8.1%, avg ₹452)

Enterprise-focused co-working (managed offices). Entered as a play on Grade-A office demand consolidation. Currently −10.3% unrealised. Risks: Occupancy rates and revenue per seat are the key metrics; sector remains competitive. Watch: Q4 FY26 occupancy data, revenue per seat, expansion pipeline. Verdict: Monitor 2 quarters. Will add if occupancy metrics improve.

Power Finance Corporation Ltd (upgraded from tracking, now 9.0%)

Entered as part of mother portfolio restructuring in U3. Currently +20.9%. Dividend yield + cheap valuation thesis. Watch: Any deterioration in NPA disclosures or state DISCOM receivables. Verdict: Thesis intact.

NCC Ltd — Status Update (8.0% weight, −19.0% G/L)

Q3 FY26 was a disappointing print: Revenue −9% YoY, PAT −37% YoY. Order book grew 43% YoY to ₹79,571 crore — execution is the gap. Debt rose from ₹2,115cr to ₹2,980cr in the quarter. JJM payment recovery is progressing but slowly. CLSA maintained outperform but cut target from ₹315 to ₹261. This was the final trigger quarter set in U1. Verdict: No meaningful WC improvement. Q4 FY26 (Apr results) is the last data point — if execution metrics don’t improve, reduce 50% as committed.

TD Power Systems — Status Update (12.8% weight, +178% G/L)

Q3 FY26 strong: PAT +25%, EBITDA margin 18.8% vs guided ~18%. FY26 revenue guidance on-track (₹1,800cr). Q4 ramp to ₹550-575cr/quarter, then ₹600cr/quarter from Q1 FY27. Orders +48% YoY (79% export-driven). Demand visibility confirmed to 2030. Currency tailwind: stopped forex hedging 6 months ago — capturing rupee depreciation against EUR and USD directly. Risk: US tariff may affect 4-5% of sales; Turkey plant is the mitigation. Verdict: Strong position. Define reduce trigger at +200% G/L or if P/E exceeds 75×.

Sky Gold & Diamonds — Status Update (40.4% weight, +140.1% G/L)

No Q4 data available yet. Thesis: jewelry sector recovery, operational leverage on gold price rise. Verdict: Outsized concentration risk (40% of mother portfolio). Define and commit to reduce trigger before next update.

Self — US

Ticker	U1 Wt	Curr Wt	Δ Wt	Prev Shares (est.)	Curr Shares	Δ Shares	Action
QQQM	41.4%	18.2%	−23.2pp	76.6	37.5	−39.1	TRIM
AMD	27.6%	17.6%	−10.0pp	60.8	37.1	−23.7	TRIM
MSTR	5.1%	14.9%	+9.8pp	14.5	60.1	+45.6	ADD
MARA	5.7%	13.8%	+8.1pp	263.2	748.4	+485.2	ADD
MU	7.9%	13.0%	+5.1pp	14.0	16.0	+2.0	HOLD/DRIFT
VRT	5.3%	11.4%	+6.1pp	15.6	20.1	+4.5	ADD
ASML	6.2%	11.0%	+4.8pp	2.8	3.9	+1.1	ADD

Gross sold: ~70% of prior US portfolio redeployed within the account. Net repatriated to India: ~2.3% of total portfolio (4 tranches, Jan–Mar 2026).

TRIM — QQQM (41.4% → 18.2%): Passive ETF at 41% of US bucket was incongruent with the purpose of an active portfolio. Rebalanced aggressively. NASDAQ off highs with AMD/AI semi recovery uncertain; trimming the passive core made room for active bets. Verdict: Correct structural rebalancing.

TRIM — AMD (27.6% → 17.6%): Q3 FY26 (Jan 28, 2026): Revenue +24% YoY, data center +69%, but Q1 2026 guidance ₹7.1B missed consensus ₹7.4B. Stock −6% post-results — the trim partially front-ran this. AI inference recovery thesis intact but timing uncertain. Watch: Q1 CY26 data center revenue vs guidance. Recovery in MI300X adoption rate. Verdict: Appropriate de-risking while thesis develops.

ADD — MSTR (5.1% → 14.9%): Leveraged Bitcoin treasury play. Currently +0.7% G/L at $127.72 avg. BTC holding as of Apr 2026: ~550,000+ BTC. At $65-70K BTC, company sits above cost basis. Risk: Class action suit risk; leverage remains high; BTC volatility directly flows through P&L. Hard cap 15% of US bucket. Watch: BTC price relative to MSTR cost basis; any forced selling risk. Verdict: High conviction speculative position. Maintain hard cap.

ADD — MARA (5.7% → 13.8%): Bitcoin mining — direct BTC leverage. Q4 FY26 results expected. Currently +18.6%. MARA expanding hash rate and diversifying into energy assets. Risk: Mining profitability tied to BTC price AND hash rate difficulty; both volatile. CEO warned mining is zero-sum. Watch: Q4 earnings; hash rate growth; BTC price. Verdict: Speculative. Combined MSTR+MARA = 28.7% of US bucket — at upper bound of acceptable Bitcoin exposure.

ADD — VRT (5.3% → 11.4%): Q4 CY25 (Feb 11, 2026): Organic orders +252% YoY, backlog $15B (+109% YoY), book-to-bill 2.9×, FY26 guidance EPS +43% YoY. Stock +18% post-results. DC infrastructure demand is structural — AI server thermal management is a bottleneck VRT owns. Verdict: Best performing thesis in the US portfolio. Build toward 15%.

ADD — ASML (6.2% → 11.0%): Q4 CY25 (Jan 29, 2026): Net bookings €7.09B — dramatically above consensus €4B. EUV monopoly fully intact. TSMC/Samsung/Intel all ramping capacity for AI chips; ASML is the chokepoint. Watch: Price recovery on EUV backlog execution; geopolitical risk of China export controls tightening. Verdict: Thesis strongly intact. State explicit target weight in U6.

Critical Analysis

Auto-flagged for review:

EFC (I) Ltd — 6.53% combined weight, −18.7% G/L. WC issues persist; thesis requires Q4 validation.
EPack Prefab Technologies Ltd — 4.03% weight, +2.7% G/L. Q4 FY26 results are the binary event.
NCC Ltd (Mother) — 8.04% weight, −19.0% G/L. Committed to reduce 50% if Q4 execution doesn’t improve.
Sky Gold & Diamonds Ltd (Mother) — 40.4% weight, +140.1% G/L. No reduce trigger defined. This is a risk.
TD Power Systems Ltd (Mother) — 12.8% weight, +178.0% G/L. Define reduce trigger in U6.
MSTR + MARA (US) — Combined 28.7% of US bucket. Bitcoin exposure at upper bound.

What I Am Watching

EPack Prefab (India): Q4 results — revenue growth and margin recovery. Exit if miss.
EFC (I) Ltd (India): Working capital metrics in Q4. Thesis expires if no improvement.
NCC Ltd (Mother): Q4 FY26 execution vs order book. Reduce 50% trigger active.
Waaree Energies (India): US anti-dumping duty preliminary ruling (Apr 2026) and final (Jul 2026).
Sky Gold (Mother): Need to define reduce trigger before next update — 40% concentration is unacceptable without a plan.
TD Power Systems (Mother): Define reduce at +200% G/L or P/E > 75×.
VRT (US): Q1 CY26 order confirmation — building toward 15% of US bucket.
ASML (US): Define explicit target weight — currently at 11% by drift alone.

All India weights = % of respective bucket (self-India combined, mother separate). US weights = % of US portfolio. Portfolio index strips out fresh capital using base normalization (Dec 21, 2025 = 100).