Updated Kaveri
Seed Company Management Questions -25 Sep 2012
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TOTAL
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
The
Indian seed market is among the top ten largest in the world,
estimated to be about US$1 billion in 2005. (Source: ISF
Secretariat). Total Market size in 2012 is estimated to be ~8000-9000
Cr in India.
The
Indian hybrid seed industry is expected to grow at 12-15% annually in
the coming years.
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COMPETITIVE
LANDSCAPE
Aside
from Kaveri, the notable seed companies in India include Pioneer,
Mahyco, Monsanto India, ProAgro, Syngenta, Nuziveedu, Vibha and Rasi
Seeds. Any trade magazines/industry publications to validate industry
figures and market share?
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Nuziveedu
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Vibha
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Rasi
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Syngenta
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Pioneer
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Mahyco
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Monsanto
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Pro-Agro
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BT Cotton Segment
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X
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BT Cotton Mkt Share
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X
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X
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Other Crops
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Other Crops Mkt Share
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Monsanto
â only Corn?
Nath
Seeds -?
Advanta
â only bio-fuels story?
Camson
â only vegetables?
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BUSINESS
GROWTH DRIVERS
BT
Cotton Volume led Growth
How
much of BT cotton Sales was led by volume growth?
BT
Cotton Price led Growth
How
much of BT cotton Sales was led by Price growth?
Corn
Margin led growth
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KAVERI
PRODUCT
SEGMENTS/REVENUE CONTRIBUTION
[FY12
Sales
349.5 Cr ~93% Sales]
BT
COTTON [43% FY12 Sales]
Doubling
every year for last few years? What did it take for success? Why did
it take so long â 8 years? How much did you totally spend before BT
Cotton could be commercialised?
BT
Cotton overall market is declining (-12% in FY12?); Whom are you
taking market share away from?Why is Competition not able to match
up? Sales have been doubling every year? How long before the trend
reverses for Kaveri? Penetration of Cotton Hybrid seeds 90% plus?
6
BT cotton hybrid seeds. Presume this is meant for different regions
with different soil and other conditions. A
regional break-up of sales of BT cotton over the last few years?
Jadoo
BT Cotton Hybrid? And Jackpot?
We
heard there is some shortage of Cotton Seeds? Mahyco??
CORN
[25% FY12 Sales]
Market
Leader? How old is Kaveri's Corn Hybrid? increased Hybrid Corn
pricing 16% CAGR basis over last 20 years?? CAGR growth in last few
years? Penetration of Hybrid Seeds in Corn?
Is
it true Monsanto's Dekalb
- is 100 years in existence??
BAJRA
[8% FY12 Sales]
CAGR
growth in last few years? Penetration of Hybrid Seeds in Bajra?
RICE
[4% FY12 Sales]
CAGR
growth in last few years? Penetration of Hybrid Seeds in Rice?
MICROTEK:
[7%
FY12 Sales
23.5 Cr] Sales]
Where
does the company stand currently in terms of competition. If and when
company expects it to scale up and start contributing meaningfully to
sales and profits?
VEG
SEEDS:
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INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY
11000
Germaplasm Bank; What does it take to build this huge a bank; Is this
across crops? Across soil conditions? Pests; Drought resistance
patterns: Briefly explain what does this take?
168
lines/hybrids registered with PPV&FR, 54 DUS test cleared, 15 in
line for certification. 14 Registrations. How long for the 15 in line
for Certiification to Commericial availability?
R&D
to Registration to Commercial Process. R&D Team strength? Skills?
R&D Spends as % of Sales?
Reverse-Engineering
Risks? Partner Farmers? Smaller competition stealing a successful
hybrid line?
How
does Kaveri's Pipeline compare with those of competitors who have
already filed for approvals? Any serious competition coming
up?
Cold
storage & seed bank at Pamulaparty AP, to conserve gene bank
built over the years. Significance??
Dupont
Unit accuses Kaveri of Gene Piracy in 2011? Any other Litigations?
What are the liabilities if you were to lose any of these cases?
Please react.
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CROP
SHIFT PATTERNS
Farmers
are known to aggressively shift crops depending on their expectations
of realisations. Risks?
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FUTURE
GROWTH DRIVERS: 2-3 year timeframe
168
lines/hybrids registered with PPV&FR, 54 DUS test cleared, 15 in
line for certification. 14 Registrations.
CORN:
Four
corn hybrids KMH 218 Plus, KMH 3426, KMH 25K60, and KMH3712 notified.
How
far from commercialisation? 50% Penetration?
PADDY:
hybrids KPH 216, KPH 371, KPH 272, KPH 199 - second
stage of national evaluation?
Paddy
is the largest market in the country. Currently,
the acreage for hybrid rice is nearly 2 million hectares against a
total rice acreage of over 40 million hectares.
Growth thesis is rice hybrid expanding at the expense of traditional,
it may take longer to play out, and such prices will be mostly
capped. Can it realistically have an unhindered run like BT Cotton?
Regulatory/Political?
How
does this compare with the size of the Cotton Market â Acreage &
Value Terms?
BAJRA:
Bajra
hybrid Super Boss (MH1553) notified?
OKRA:
significant
progress in breeding yellow vein mosaic virus (YVMV) resistant okra
hybrids
KexVeg:
High
value exotic vegetables primarily for exports; Market
opportunity/size; Higher Margins?
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SEED
PRODUCTION MODEL
~75000
Acres under Seed Production totally!! all for 350 Cr Sales? How much
land does Nuziveedu have under seed production? How do you prevent
cannibalisation between competition farmers/Loyalty? How will future
growth be met?
Outsourced
Farming/Risks? Much
of our seed production is carried out on leased land and through
production growers. The company enlists loyal production growers -
100,000 such growers - and offers them attractive remuneration.
Please elaborate manageability & scalability of the same.
State
govt acquiring land from Kaveri in FY 2012 (as much as 124 acres)
does not augur well. If it recurs, do they have muscle to replace or
their operations/research will get affected. Risks?
Any
shortfall in achieving targets in seed production is being
compensated by seed reserves and off-season seed production. Please
elaborate.
Annual
85%
of hybrid rice seeds production in India happens in AP by 40
different cos??
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MAHYCO-MONSANTO
RELATIONSHIP
Rs.
180/- per bag: Sales Price Rs.930/bag
How
many licensees? How many successful? Why is Nuziveedu more
successful? And why is Kaveri the next most successful? Is it true
Naziveedu started on BT Cotton after Kaveri but has sped past on the
strength of better hybrids in Cotton?
What
are the Terms? Royalty Increase risks? How does it monitor
under-reporting? As per some WTO norms Monsanto can increase royalty
by?
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SALES:
DISTRIBUTION/DEALERSHIP NETWORK
15000
distributors; Distributors/Dealers pay months in advance. How do you
nurture and incentivise this critical part? Are they exclusive to
Kaveri?
How
do you do your Sales/Production modeling? What
are the chances that the farmers who have used your seeds this year
and had good result from it, will come back to them the next year ?
Can this be predicted by doing some field work on this years yield
from your seeds and hence production managed accordingly?
Debtor
days have improved drastically from 138 days in FY08 to 28 Days in
FY12? What are the reasons for this drastic improvement? Is it
sustainable?
Both
bad debts and provision for doubtful debts are increasing over the
years. From very nominal amount in 2010, increased to 0.8 Cr in 2011
and to 2.4 Cr in 2012. 10 Cr of receivables more than six months for
which no provision is made.
With
monsoon playing truant is there any stress on debtor payments?
Inventory
Buildup to cater to the huge demand in Q1? Please explain your
inventory valuation policy?
Is
it correct to say the advances from dealers that show up in Kaveriâs
balance sheet at
March
31st
every
year is a good predictor of the following yearâs revenue?
a)
What is the % of advance which customers need to pay at the time of
order booking and by what time advance should be paid for availing
delivery in the June quarter b) Advance depends on credit profile of
customers or its same for all c) Advance only for BT cotton or for
all seeds?
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ENTRY
BARRIERS
~600
Cr land; 11000 Gene Bank; 159 filings; Which is the biggest barrier?
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MEDIUM
TERM OPERATIONAL OUTLOOK
COST
STRUCTURE
How
and where does the company spend its money? Expense break-ups
Sales
& Promotion Expenses
Sales
Scheme Expenses
CAPACITY
62
MT/hour total average throughput; 8330 MT total cold storage
capacity; 2,000 MT/cycle in-house drying capacity; 25 MT/day
environment-friendly cotton delinting capacity; 30
MT/day ginning capacity
Please
demystify this for us.
The
60 crore capex in FY 10-11 was good enough to take the revenue to 400
+ cr, what is the next growth plan ? The capex in FY12 was just 11
cr.
TAXATION
Low
tax rates by Seed Industry- disputed by Income Tax Department.
Favourable judgement in lower courts face risk of being overturned in
High Court/Supreme Court?
How
does the company view the tax rate it currently pays? Any chances of
tax rate increasing going forward? Is there any litigation with tax
authorities on the tax rate the company pays?
REGULATIONS
Does
the company need any regulatory approval before launching seeds in a
new state once it has been successfully launched in another state?
Is
there Price capping in any other state than AP?
The
Maharashtra Government has recently issued an order cancelling the
companyâs(Mahyco) licence to sell and distribute genetically
modified BT cotton seeds in the cotton producing states of
Maharashtra. How much of your BT Cotton Sales come from Maharshtra,
and from Andhra Pradesh?
NEW
SUPERIOR SEEDS INTRODUCTION BY COMPETITION
What
is the visibility on competition activity on this front?
QTRLY
RESULTS/ SEASONALITY MITIGATION
3.4
Mn Cotton packets. Total market 38-40 Mn packets? So a 10% market
share? Was Q1FY13 an extraordinary quarter in terms of demand supply
mismatch for BT Cotton seeds? How does the company expect future
growth in the next 2-3 years ?
Any
effort by management to make the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter of
financial year more productive in terms of sales and profits?
Q1FY13
Microtek showed a loss. Reasons for the same.
25-30%
annual growth sustainable for next 2-3 years
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LONGER
TERM OUTLOOK
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BRAND
BUILDING. PROMOTIONS
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RISKS?
NOT DISCUSSED SO FAR
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DIVIDEND
POLICY
Esp
now as there is surplus funds and are investing it in mutual funds.
100 Cr CASH. Company
made provision for diminution in value of investment of INR 3.5 Cr.
Similarly there are investments of INR 2 Crs in equity and the
company has already made provision for diminution of value of equity
by INR 1.5 Crs.